As Saints head into the tough middle part of the season we take a look at just what they might need to do if they want to achieve qualification for the Champions League.
The first thing to note is that of course there is no set points total that guarantees you fourth place, last season for instance saw Arsenal achieve it with 79, but Everton in 5th had only 72 which would have seen them into the Champions league in all but 2 of the last six seasons.
Indeed a good target to aim for would be 73, that seems to be the benchmark if we take the odd exceptional season out and this term seems at this time to be a lower points league than last year to get into the upper reaches.
Last season in many respects was a similar season to this in how our games were set out, so if we divide it into three segments it tells us in the first 12 games we gained 22 points, in the next 12 only 13 and in the final 14 matches 21 giving us a total of 56 points in total.
The good news is that we are 4 points ahead of this time last year, but the bad news is we are going to have to significantly beat last seasons record if we are to hit that magical fourth place or beyond.
So far we have averaged 2.16 points per game if we could maintain that then we will almost certainly qualify as it would mean 82 points, indeed if we kept that up for the next dozen games we would probably be guaranteed 9th place even if we lost every other game.
But we need to set targets and achieve them, if we averaged 1 point a game against the clubs currently in the top six and won the other games then of the 12 games we would have 22 points on the board, that is very achievable and perhaps our optimum target.
If we did that then with 48 points on the board after 24 games we would need to average 1.78 points per game in the final 3rd to hit 73, not that far off what we achieved in the final third last season, so again achievable.
The key though is beating a few of the top clubs rather than drawing, for instance in the grand scheme of things in our next three games although three draws would be good as it would mean we have kept our rivals at bay in many respects we would be better losing to City, drawing with Arsenal and then beating Manchester United although of course the best thing would be to just beat all three and have done with it.
Perhaps the first aim though is to get into the New Year, we have seven games between now and Jools Holland's Hootenanny if we could get even 11 points out of them it would set us up nicely for the second half of the season and if we are in the Top Four in the New Year then the club may well decide that it is worth further investment to push on, given that we could well have more spending power than all but Chelsea and Manchester City that could make it very interesting.
So to recap, 73 points is as good a target to aim for as any and if we think that is hard then look at Manchester United who are 7 points behind us or Arsenal, Everton & Spurs who are 9. not to mention Liverpool currently 12 adrift, to be blunt if we finish above that last four then we will be there or thereabouts the top 4, if we add Manchester United to that equation then perhaps 3rd, we have a great advantage over these teams and these are the ones we have to overcome. .