Stephen Ganavas makes his second appearance on Planet Swans and looks at how the Swans may make the journey to the magical 40 point that appears to be the holy grail
This article was written prior to the Swans 2-1 defeat at Spurs on Sunday
Sitting just three points clear of the relegation zone with twelve games to spare, there are obvious relegation fears surrounding the Liberty Stadium which have been well documented since the sacking of manager Gary Monk late in 2015.
Swansea City currently sit on 27 points, accumulated in the 26 league games played so far this season, on track to register 39 points — one shy of the 40-point mark widely attributed to relegation survival. What does this mean for the Welsh club? Is the 40-point theory accurate? And what chances do Swansea have of improving their record and garnering 40 points?
Firstly, the cliché that 40 points will guarantee you Premier League survival is just that — a cliché. In reality, the amount of points required for survival has been 40 points just once in the last decade (2010/11 season), while averaging 36.1 points in that same period. That being the case, Swansea are historically nine points from Premier League survival, with the addition of a vastly superior goal difference in comparison to other relegation threatened sides adding another virtual point to their tally of 27.
However, Swansea do have the added difficulty of an incredibly tough assortment of remaining fixtures. Upcoming trips to White Hart Lane, the Emirates Stadium and the King Power Stadium are compounded by difficult home fixtures against Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City. The difficulty of Swansea’s run home in terms of the points-per-game average of their opponents is the most difficult of their direct relegation-embattled opponents (excluding the almost already relegated Aston Villa). This will quite clearly have an impact in the battle against Newcastle United, who have some of the easiest remaining fixtures of any side in the Premier League. However, the difference between Swansea, Norwich and Sunderland’s fixtures is relatively minimal in terms of difficultly.
Last to be analysed is Swansea’s performances in the corresponding fixtures in the first half of the season. In those twelve matches, Swansea won ten points, a figure that will see them finish on 37 points if emulated in the second half of the season. It is a figure that would see them teeter right on the border separating both relegation and survival. Included in the results from earlier in the season is just two points from the difficult matches again Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs, and Leicester — the pressure is somewhat off in those games, with any point a bonus in the relegation scrap.
The key fixtures will, as usual, be the trips to fellow cellar-dwellars. Matches against Aston Villa, Norwich and Newcastle United will be absolutely vital — anything less than six points may prove to be too little.
Prediction: Swansea will survive. 38 points is the lucky number that should guarantee survival for Swansea, with their decent goal difference theoretically meaning that total equates to 39 points. Swansea should win at home to both Villa and Norwich, and should be hopeful of picking up at least three or four points from key fixtures away at Newcastle, Bournemouth and Stoke City. This leaves the matches against the league’s heavyweights as opportunities to pick up bonus points, with a win in any of the matches against Leicester, Spurs, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, or West Ham incredibly likely to lead Swansea to eventual survival.