| Will we be promoted? 12:30 - Feb 18 with 2768 views | Ifonly |
The bookies think we will, but I think the odds are actually against us.
According to the bookies we're about 4/7 on, so saying that we probably WILL be promoted. But, to me, Leeds look the stronger side and have the advantage of the final match. We're the best of the rest, but missing out on automatic promotion means we're in the playoffs and that will be a bit of a lottery. Even if we're playing well at that stage and go in as favourites, our realistic odds will only be roughly 2/1 or maybe 3/2, so the odds go against us. I can easily see the likes of Norwich surprising people and going up via the playoffs.
The bookies think our chances of promotion are 64% and I think the real number is more like the other way round at 46%. What do you think?
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| Will we be promoted? on 12:39 - Feb 18 with 2732 views | davidargyll |
Funnily enough I have never heard of a poor bookie... | | | |
| Will we be promoted? on 13:47 - Feb 18 with 2622 views | Southamptonfan |
We have a good chance, as the bookies suggest. We have to do our bit, obviously but if we do, we will be 4 points ahead of Leeds, come next Saturday evening or we will be in 2nd, only 5 behind Leicester. I wouldn't fancy our chances if we have to go to Elland Road and get a result as it will be like a bear pit but hopefully it will be done by then. We have some tough games, but we can go to Leicester and get revenge for the defeat at St Mary's. I think we have a very good chance of automatic promotion. Might be wrong, but I have a feeling Leicester could throw it away and blow up. [Post edited 18 Feb 13:50]
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| Will we be promoted? on 14:15 - Feb 18 with 2589 views | DorsetIan |
| Will we be promoted? on 13:47 - Feb 18 by Southamptonfan |
We have a good chance, as the bookies suggest. We have to do our bit, obviously but if we do, we will be 4 points ahead of Leeds, come next Saturday evening or we will be in 2nd, only 5 behind Leicester. I wouldn't fancy our chances if we have to go to Elland Road and get a result as it will be like a bear pit but hopefully it will be done by then. We have some tough games, but we can go to Leicester and get revenge for the defeat at St Mary's. I think we have a very good chance of automatic promotion. Might be wrong, but I have a feeling Leicester could throw it away and blow up. [Post edited 18 Feb 13:50]
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We have been playing consistently well and we got straight back to winning ways after the Bristol game.
Getting up and out of this league is all about consistency because there's always someone snapping at your heels.
I think we''ll continue to play really well and it'll be about who drops fewer points, us or Leeds.
Team and manager are flying at the moment. That's all we can ask for. | |
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| Will we be promoted? on 14:40 - Feb 18 with 2565 views | SFC_Referee |
| Will we be promoted? on 13:47 - Feb 18 by Southamptonfan |
We have a good chance, as the bookies suggest. We have to do our bit, obviously but if we do, we will be 4 points ahead of Leeds, come next Saturday evening or we will be in 2nd, only 5 behind Leicester. I wouldn't fancy our chances if we have to go to Elland Road and get a result as it will be like a bear pit but hopefully it will be done by then. We have some tough games, but we can go to Leicester and get revenge for the defeat at St Mary's. I think we have a very good chance of automatic promotion. Might be wrong, but I have a feeling Leicester could throw it away and blow up. [Post edited 18 Feb 13:50]
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Yeah well we’ll get an idea of whether or not Leicester will bottle it from their games against us and Leeds, as well as all the ones in the middle, as if both us and Leeds beat them, and we win our game in hand against Hull on Tuesday, then we’ll only be 2 points behind them whilst Leeds will be just 3 and Ipswich only being 6 off. So it certainly could be an interesting end to the season if Leicester do drop anymore points outside of their games against us and Leeds [Post edited 18 Feb 15:34]
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| Will we be promoted? on 15:20 - Feb 18 with 2515 views | Centurion |
interesting comments, but I think Leicester will be hard to catch.
Leeds look good and don't under estimate Ipswich.
If we reach the play offs I think we can win, but as has been said it can be a lottery. | | | |
| Will we be promoted? on 15:48 - Feb 18 with 2453 views | grumpy |
Hope I am wrong, but can see us losing in the playoffs. |  | | |
| Will we be promoted? on 16:05 - Feb 18 with 2430 views | GRIM |
| Will we be promoted? on 12:39 - Feb 18 by davidargyll |
Funnily enough I have never heard of a poor bookie... |
You never see a Bookie on a bike.
But I think it'll be Leicester & Leeds for automatic promotion.
Which means we'll be in the dog fight of the play offs.
That worries me because it'll be the team that's in the best form at the time of the play offs that'll get promoted.
I like a gamble but I wouldn't bet on us going up via play offs. | | | |
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| Will we be promoted? on 23:13 - Feb 18 with 2251 views | PatfromPoole |
| Will we be promoted? on 22:58 - Feb 18 by LondonSaint76 |
One of my neighbours is an ex-journalist who worked on football reporting for many years. His prediction is for Leeds + Saints to go up automatically and a Leicester v Ipswich PO Final. He too thinks Leicester will implode. There's something he calls the '40 game factor ' which I've sort of heard mention of before. In a nutshell he says a 46 game season takes its toll in a different way to a 38 game season, might sound daft at first but he said that there is just something that seemes to happen to some teams at game No.40 onwards, they have been going great guns then fall apart in the final furlong. Quoted a few examples and made quite a convincig argument to back up the theory. A Keeds / Saints 1/2 is not a call I have heard made elsewhere yet but interesting as he thinks Leicester are a candidate for the 40 Factor. Not sure myself but it would be nice if he was right  |
Can’t recall too many examples of teams who have been leading in the Championship for most of the season, and then choke it at the end.
If Leicester keep Mavadidi and Dewsbury-Hall fit, they shouldn’t choke.
I think we could do with Leeds getting an injury to Somerville. He’s the best player in the League at the moment, and they don’t like losing while he’s in their side. |  |
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| Will we be promoted? on 23:32 - Feb 18 with 2235 views | Southamptonfan |
| Will we be promoted? on 23:13 - Feb 18 by PatfromPoole |
Can’t recall too many examples of teams who have been leading in the Championship for most of the season, and then choke it at the end.
If Leicester keep Mavadidi and Dewsbury-Hall fit, they shouldn’t choke.
I think we could do with Leeds getting an injury to Somerville. He’s the best player in the League at the moment, and they don’t like losing while he’s in their side. |
Newcastle come to mind, albeit in the PL. They were 13 points clear and they blew it. "I would luv it if we beat them" famous Keegan rant. Can't recall many championship collapses, but I don't think there has ever been such quality teams us and Leeds chasing the top team. Let's see what happens Friday, but I do think a Leicester collapse is possible. If the gap is suddenly 5 points, mentally they will start to feel the pressure. Just the terrible thought that they could throw it away after being top all year. Meanwhile us and Leeds are in good spirits enjoying the chase. As it happens, I would rather a Leicester win Friday and be 4 points clear in second, but I have a feeling Leeds will win. [Post edited 18 Feb 23:36]
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| Will we be promoted? on 11:51 - Feb 19 with 2021 views | saint901 |
My rose tinted spectacles say that if present form continues and baring us/Leeds and Ipswich having a meltdown, over the remaining matches we should be targeting 32 points.
Leeds realistically are targeting 31 points and Ipswich 30 points.
That will be (just) enough.
However, not much room to make an error.
As I've said elsewhere, this is down to the manager and the players now and we cannot rely upon upset elsewhere.
The sequence to get to 32 points allows two defeats and also allows us to go to Leeds a point or two ahead and just needing to avoid defeat.
I'm not a fan of "avoiding defeat" because it makes players nervous but playing for the win is also a bit squeaky bum. | | | |
| Will we be promoted? on 15:15 - Feb 19 with 1929 views | ericofarabia |
| Will we be promoted? on 11:51 - Feb 19 by saint901 |
My rose tinted spectacles say that if present form continues and baring us/Leeds and Ipswich having a meltdown, over the remaining matches we should be targeting 32 points.
Leeds realistically are targeting 31 points and Ipswich 30 points.
That will be (just) enough.
However, not much room to make an error.
As I've said elsewhere, this is down to the manager and the players now and we cannot rely upon upset elsewhere.
The sequence to get to 32 points allows two defeats and also allows us to go to Leeds a point or two ahead and just needing to avoid defeat.
I'm not a fan of "avoiding defeat" because it makes players nervous but playing for the win is also a bit squeaky bum. |
Don't forget to factor in Leicester's GD which is a massive 18 better than ours and worth an extra point to them. A nice 9 nil win at their place would do it though 💪😂
Also Leeds 10 Gd better than us.
Last day of the season could be an absolute nerve shredding affair right down to GD deciding who makes the cut 😲
i noticed at Rotherham they displayed latest scores on the screen which would help avoid Chinese Whispers of what is happening elsewhere. Remember Alan Ball's Man City thinking a draw would keep them up so they eased off when in reality we were not losing and stayed up. |  | | |
| Will we be promoted? on 23:18 - Feb 19 with 1813 views | saint901 |
My assumption is that Leicester will win the league and us, Leeds and Ipswich are going for second.
We do though need a best 11 and for me, Mara is not in that team. I really hope that RM has seen enough and puts him back on the bench. | | | |
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