| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread 20:33 - Apr 7 with 83572 views | exiledclaseboy |
About time we had one and it's got the word "official" in the title so that makes all the difference. If a mod wants to sticky it, feel free.
I seem to remember that five years ago (on the old, better Planet Swans) we got to nearly 100 pages and then another 60odd with the "aftermath" thread. They were good fun but there were more posters then and we were all a bit more tolerant of others' views. Let's try to be nice to each other, eh.
Anyway, best site for opinion polls is this one in my experience:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Polls are so tight the only conclusion is that the Tories and Labour are head to head nationwide. Can't put a whisker between them.
Tories need about 39-40% for an overall majority. Labour will probably get one on 36-37%. God bless our ridiculous voting system.
So, enjoy yourselves. I'll start with a prediction. Labour to win most seats but slightly fewer votes than the Tories and end up forming some kind of minority government with support from various parliamentary lefties on a vote by vote basis. And then all of a sudden many Tory supporters will discover that they've always hated first past the post and can't understand why we perpetuate a system under which the party which more people voted for than any other can lose the election. It'll be quite funny and lead to calls for a proper voting system. Which everyone will forget about in six months when all the fuss has died down.
What say you? |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 09:46 - May 7 with 2366 views | trampie |
The only party that will put Wales first is Plaid. |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 09:50 - May 7 with 2358 views | rpark25 |
Vote cast. thinking of a doing a all nighter like I did for the Scottish Ref |  | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 10:14 - May 7 with 2324 views | yescomeon |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 09:27 - May 7 by LeonisGod |
But just remember that this is written by someone who is effectively still at school. He may have started a PhD but has no life experience yet and will still be full of youthful idealism. he may be right, but I suspect he's not particularly balanced |
It is a good point no doubt, gaining entry to an economics PhD in Oxford is in my view some feat and in my world he commands a good amount of my attention off the back of that. I find it difficult to be objective when reading on economics, despite not having a background in the subject myself and my suspicion is that economists have the same problem. However the authors own comments on the topic of bias are:
"Many conservatives appear not to trust Oxfam as a source because Oxfam cares too much about the poor. I even saw one commentator claim that relative poverty is not important at all. This is not true—I recently wrote a post detailing all kinds of evidence that relative poverty and relative inequality contribute to a variety of serious social problems. But in any event, even if you exclude the Oxfam results, it’s clear that ordinary people have been negatively affected by austerity—my data on real wages in Britain comes from the government:"
"The rest of the data in my original post came from a variety of undeniably reputable sources. We’re talking about Eurostat, the IMF, the Office for National Statistics, the Economic Policy Institute, and so on. If you’re going to call these sources into question, you’d better have clear evidence of wrongdoing—and if you have that evidence, you should contact a journalist, because that would be big news. These are the sources professional researchers trust."
http://benjaminstudebaker.com/2015/05/06/13-terrible-tory-counterarguments/
However, these are of course the authors comments so the bias would again be carried forward. |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 11:37 - May 7 with 2287 views | Highjack |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 09:50 - May 7 by rpark25 |
Vote cast. thinking of a doing a all nighter like I did for the Scottish Ref |
You were sleeping with Hugh Dallas???    |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:21 - May 7 with 2225 views | Uxbridge |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 09:27 - May 7 by LeonisGod |
But just remember that this is written by someone who is effectively still at school. He may have started a PhD but has no life experience yet and will still be full of youthful idealism. he may be right, but I suspect he's not particularly balanced |
It's economic theory. Basic economic theory at that. I've been saying since the last election a lot of the same things as this chap. He's right too. |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:45 - May 7 with 2199 views | jackonicko |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:21 - May 7 by Uxbridge |
It's economic theory. Basic economic theory at that. I've been saying since the last election a lot of the same things as this chap. He's right too. |
It is basic economic theory, but only one strand of it.
Some of his historic context was wrong at the beginning, the core theory in the middle was limited at best, and some of the conclusions he drew at the end were dubious.
But otherwise I thought it was a decent effort. |  | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:56 - May 7 with 2191 views | Uxbridge |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 13:45 - May 7 by jackonicko |
It is basic economic theory, but only one strand of it.
Some of his historic context was wrong at the beginning, the core theory in the middle was limited at best, and some of the conclusions he drew at the end were dubious.
But otherwise I thought it was a decent effort. |
Heh.
I'm sure we can both agree that economic literacy has largely bypassed the political arguments in recent years.
Anyway, I've got my pizza and a ridiculous amount of wine. I'm quite looking forward to tonight. Suppose I should vote too  | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:10 - May 7 with 2149 views | londonlisa2001 |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 10:14 - May 7 by yescomeon |
It is a good point no doubt, gaining entry to an economics PhD in Oxford is in my view some feat and in my world he commands a good amount of my attention off the back of that. I find it difficult to be objective when reading on economics, despite not having a background in the subject myself and my suspicion is that economists have the same problem. However the authors own comments on the topic of bias are:
"Many conservatives appear not to trust Oxfam as a source because Oxfam cares too much about the poor. I even saw one commentator claim that relative poverty is not important at all. This is not true—I recently wrote a post detailing all kinds of evidence that relative poverty and relative inequality contribute to a variety of serious social problems. But in any event, even if you exclude the Oxfam results, it’s clear that ordinary people have been negatively affected by austerity—my data on real wages in Britain comes from the government:"
"The rest of the data in my original post came from a variety of undeniably reputable sources. We’re talking about Eurostat, the IMF, the Office for National Statistics, the Economic Policy Institute, and so on. If you’re going to call these sources into question, you’d better have clear evidence of wrongdoing—and if you have that evidence, you should contact a journalist, because that would be big news. These are the sources professional researchers trust."
http://benjaminstudebaker.com/2015/05/06/13-terrible-tory-counterarguments/
However, these are of course the authors comments so the bias would again be carried forward. |
The main reaction I had to the article was shock that Cambridge (not Oxford and not economics) was accepting PhD students who think that "Cameron immediately begins doing austerity" is a sentence.
I am also amused that on another page he writes "both the UK and the US have their own currencies (the pound and the dollar). Neither is on the Euro, and being the Euro adds complications because countries that are on the Euro can’t make their own monetary policies—they have to follow what the European Central Bank (ECB) mandates."
I can only wonder at the applicants that Cambridge University seems to be accepting - maybe they are suffering with a lack of suitable candidates due to the economic problems in some countries that are 'on the Euro'. | | | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:23 - May 7 with 2134 views | yescomeon |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:10 - May 7 by londonlisa2001 |
The main reaction I had to the article was shock that Cambridge (not Oxford and not economics) was accepting PhD students who think that "Cameron immediately begins doing austerity" is a sentence.
I am also amused that on another page he writes "both the UK and the US have their own currencies (the pound and the dollar). Neither is on the Euro, and being the Euro adds complications because countries that are on the Euro can’t make their own monetary policies—they have to follow what the European Central Bank (ECB) mandates."
I can only wonder at the applicants that Cambridge University seems to be accepting - maybe they are suffering with a lack of suitable candidates due to the economic problems in some countries that are 'on the Euro'. |
Perhaps Cambridge is not that much better than Welsh universities after all  | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:27 - May 7 with 2131 views | C_jack |
Bookies odds at the moment
Most seats
Conservative - 1/4
Labour - 3/1 |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:34 - May 7 with 2126 views | monmouth |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:10 - May 7 by londonlisa2001 |
The main reaction I had to the article was shock that Cambridge (not Oxford and not economics) was accepting PhD students who think that "Cameron immediately begins doing austerity" is a sentence.
I am also amused that on another page he writes "both the UK and the US have their own currencies (the pound and the dollar). Neither is on the Euro, and being the Euro adds complications because countries that are on the Euro can’t make their own monetary policies—they have to follow what the European Central Bank (ECB) mandates."
I can only wonder at the applicants that Cambridge University seems to be accepting - maybe they are suffering with a lack of suitable candidates due to the economic problems in some countries that are 'on the Euro'. |
"The rest of the data in my original post came from a variety of undeniably reputable sources. We’re talking about Eurostat, the IMF, the Office for National Statistics, the Economic Policy Institute, and so on. If you’re going to call these sources into question, you’d better have clear evidence of wrongdoing—and if you have that evidence, you should contact a journalist, because that would be big news. These are the sources professional researchers trust"
Quality of critique that would make an undergraduate blush.
Having said that I have a fair bit of empathy with the sentiments about all this austerity bullsh1t. Not that I know anything. Economists annoy me anyway because they won't admit they have no clue either...if history tells us anything it is that economists know bugger all. So a PhD.....no chance. |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:39 - May 7 with 2121 views | Uxbridge |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:27 - May 7 by C_jack |
Bookies odds at the moment
Most seats
Conservative - 1/4
Labour - 3/1 |
Grauniad poll of polls had Labour a point ahead nationally. There can't be much in it. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:44 - May 7 with 2119 views | C_jack |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:39 - May 7 by Uxbridge |
Grauniad poll of polls had Labour a point ahead nationally. There can't be much in it. |
It's always a strange period on polling day, we go from wall to wall campaigning and coverage, to blanket silence, and then back to all the madness and anticipation again.
From social media and the like, the opinion I'm generally seeing is that the last 5 years were OK, not glorious by any means, but manageable, and that's tipped it. I think the Conservatives will get a bit of a nudge in regards to seats, and they'll form another government, easier than anyone had envisaged. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 16:11 - May 7 with 2100 views | yescomeon |
Has anyone come across any articles that argue the opposite side - that austerity actually works - that provides data and the such? I'd like to see something from the other side. I realise that economists are split but I get the impression that the majority take the view that it doesn't. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 16:41 - May 7 with 2080 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:44 - May 7 by C_jack |
It's always a strange period on polling day, we go from wall to wall campaigning and coverage, to blanket silence, and then back to all the madness and anticipation again.
From social media and the like, the opinion I'm generally seeing is that the last 5 years were OK, not glorious by any means, but manageable, and that's tipped it. I think the Conservatives will get a bit of a nudge in regards to seats, and they'll form another government, easier than anyone had envisaged. |
I've got a feeling you may be right. But that may be just the start of my traditional election night jitters. Hopefully Uxy will be around later to keep me sane like he usually does. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 16:55 - May 7 with 2057 views | Dr_Winston |
I've got a small bet with a friend on a very small Tory majority. |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 17:09 - May 7 with 2041 views | londonlisa2001 |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 15:23 - May 7 by yescomeon |
Perhaps Cambridge is not that much better than Welsh universities after all |
Alternatively he's full of sh*t. | | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 17:11 - May 7 with 2035 views | londonlisa2001 |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 16:41 - May 7 by exiledclaseboy |
I've got a feeling you may be right. But that may be just the start of my traditional election night jitters. Hopefully Uxy will be around later to keep me sane like he usually does. |
I did say a week or so ago that the political analyst bloke I met said they were beginning to think the polling may be wrong !!
Think it's too close to call though - it's going to be a long night :-)
Big question left - BBC or Channel 4? | | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 17:28 - May 7 with 2022 views | exiledclaseboy |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 17:11 - May 7 by londonlisa2001 |
I did say a week or so ago that the political analyst bloke I met said they were beginning to think the polling may be wrong !!
Think it's too close to call though - it's going to be a long night :-)
Big question left - BBC or Channel 4? |
You did say that yes. Final polls have shown a shift back to Labour. Most seat forecasts show the Tories as the largest party by anything from a handful to 25 seats but nowhere near a majority. Let's be honest, no one's got a clue.
I'll be flicking between the Beeb and C4 and avoiding Sky News and ITV like the plague. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 17:34 - May 7 with 2020 views | londonlisa2001 |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 17:28 - May 7 by exiledclaseboy |
You did say that yes. Final polls have shown a shift back to Labour. Most seat forecasts show the Tories as the largest party by anything from a handful to 25 seats but nowhere near a majority. Let's be honest, no one's got a clue.
I'll be flicking between the Beeb and C4 and avoiding Sky News and ITV like the plague. |
Think it'll be Tories biggest seats, probably just fall short of being able to form a government (although possibly by not very much). Queens Speech will fail (just). Labour will try. Get theirs through. Unworkable due to SNP demands. Will fall. Election again within 12 months. Everyone will vote either Tory or Labour again and wipe out the smaller parties (in England at least).
The only thing I have a tiny suspicion about, is that the Lib Dems may hold more than is being predicted, in which case, the above could change.
And I'll be the same - I want to watch the live play from the Donmar on C4 at 8.30 - looks like it may be good.
Sky will be unbearable. | | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 18:08 - May 7 with 1990 views | ScoobyWho |
Pritchard or Thomas ?
Tricky. |  |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 21:59 - May 7 with 1886 views | WarwickHunt |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 16:41 - May 7 by exiledclaseboy |
I've got a feeling you may be right. But that may be just the start of my traditional election night jitters. Hopefully Uxy will be around later to keep me sane like he usually does. |
I have a feeling there'll be a return to matron wheN it comes to crunch for the undecided. |  | | |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 22:11 - May 7 with 1869 views | Dr_Winston |
| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 16:55 - May 7 by Dr_Winston |
I've got a small bet with a friend on a very small Tory majority. |
Might win too if that exit poll is even close to accurate. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 22:11 - May 7 with 1868 views | yescomeon |
Disaster of an exit poll, genuinely worried for the future of the UK. | |
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| The Official Planet Swans General Election 2015 Thread on 22:20 - May 7 with 1837 views | Cottsy |
What did I say earlier in this thread?
Vote SNP in Scotland
Vote Green in England
Vote Plaid in Wales
And get a Conservative government in Westminster
If the exit poll is anywhere near accurate then I was right. |  |
| If man evolved from monkeys why do we still have monkeys? |
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