| Political Rumour 12:49 - Jan 29 with 2048 views | trampie |
There is a rumour going round that if Labour needs Plaids support after the Assembly elections that Plaid will demand that Leanne Wood serves as First Minister for half the Assembly term.  |  |
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| Political Rumour on 13:01 - Jan 29 with 1256 views | Flashberryjack |
I think Leanne has won a lot of support after saying Britain should be taking far more immigrants than we are. |  |
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| Political Rumour on 13:06 - Jan 29 with 1240 views | trampie |
Since Red Tories are bound to have most seats but might well be short of having a majority then can we hope that Labour spends little money and Leanne gets to spend the pot, I don't fancy Kaardiffs chances compared to the valleys and rural areas then.  | |
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| Political Rumour on 13:16 - Jan 29 with 1212 views | acejack3065 |
Yeah of course. The party that will get 24-30 seats will obviously let the leader of the party with 9-13 seats be in charge. Good one. |  | | |
| Political Rumour on 13:18 - Jan 29 with 1205 views | acejack3065 |
| Political Rumour on 13:06 - Jan 29 by trampie |
Since Red Tories are bound to have most seats but might well be short of having a majority then can we hope that Labour spends little money and Leanne gets to spend the pot, I don't fancy Kaardiffs chances compared to the valleys and rural areas then. |
Its also a shame Leanne doesn't put her money where her mouth is and come off the regional list. | | | |
| Political Rumour on 13:29 - Jan 29 with 1182 views | trampie |
Its all ifs and buts, but if Labour don't get a majority they are probably more likely to try and form a coalition than go it alone, the party they are mostly to form a coalition with is Plaid and at that point the ball will be in Plaids court and Plaid could say we want Leanne as leader for half a term with only a few other demands, Labour might well say no and look elsewhere or go it alone as a minority Government.
Although its odds against its not unthinkable that i could happen, as if that is one of only a few demands in that scenario made by Plaid then it would be up to Labour to be a minority Government or go with the Conservative party or UKIP [Lib-Dems not likely to have many seats] or take the offer. lol. | |
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| Political Rumour on 13:36 - Jan 29 with 1165 views | acejack3065 |
| Political Rumour on 13:29 - Jan 29 by trampie |
Its all ifs and buts, but if Labour don't get a majority they are probably more likely to try and form a coalition than go it alone, the party they are mostly to form a coalition with is Plaid and at that point the ball will be in Plaids court and Plaid could say we want Leanne as leader for half a term with only a few other demands, Labour might well say no and look elsewhere or go it alone as a minority Government.
Although its odds against its not unthinkable that i could happen, as if that is one of only a few demands in that scenario made by Plaid then it would be up to Labour to be a minority Government or go with the Conservative party or UKIP [Lib-Dems not likely to have many seats] or take the offer. lol. |
Yeah because the Lib Dems absolutely milked the Tories during their coalition negotiation.
If you think Leanne has a chance of ever being First Minister of Wales then you need help. I wouldn't be surprised if Plaid shrink to the fourth largest party in the Assembly in May. UKIP could get as many as 9 seats and thats going to squeeze Plaid on the list. | | | |
| Political Rumour on 14:00 - Jan 29 with 1109 views | trampie |
| Political Rumour on 13:36 - Jan 29 by acejack3065 |
Yeah because the Lib Dems absolutely milked the Tories during their coalition negotiation.
If you think Leanne has a chance of ever being First Minister of Wales then you need help. I wouldn't be surprised if Plaid shrink to the fourth largest party in the Assembly in May. UKIP could get as many as 9 seats and thats going to squeeze Plaid on the list. |
The UKIP vote might stop any hope of Plaid winning outright the current Welsh election but UKIP are likely to take more seats off Labour than off Plaid.
There was a story that UKIP might get as many as 9 seats [I don't think they will but I'm not in a UKIP area so might not be in the best location to judge their support], with Labour and the Lib-Dems both down 3 seats each, Conservatives down 2 seats and Plaid down 1 seat, that is where the 9 seats come from.
In fact UKIP voters in Wales tend to be Labour voters that no longer wish to vote Labour. | |
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| Political Rumour on 14:30 - Jan 29 with 1070 views | acejack3065 |
| Political Rumour on 14:00 - Jan 29 by trampie |
The UKIP vote might stop any hope of Plaid winning outright the current Welsh election but UKIP are likely to take more seats off Labour than off Plaid.
There was a story that UKIP might get as many as 9 seats [I don't think they will but I'm not in a UKIP area so might not be in the best location to judge their support], with Labour and the Lib-Dems both down 3 seats each, Conservatives down 2 seats and Plaid down 1 seat, that is where the 9 seats come from.
In fact UKIP voters in Wales tend to be Labour voters that no longer wish to vote Labour. |
"The UKIP vote might stop any hope of Plaid winning outright"
What planet are you on? The thing stopping Plaid from winning the Welsh Election outright is that they are in 3rd or 4th place in almost every constituency in Wales. To win the election they would need to take over 20 constituency seats and they currently have 5.
Your maths about how the UKIP vote will affect the assembly is totally wrong. After this election almost every area in Wales will be a UKIP area if they poll broadly as well as they did in the UK general election. All of their wins are expected to come from the "top up" seats where Labour is traditionally punished because of its success in the constituency vote. Labour only hold 2 top up seats in the assembly whcih come from the Mid and West Wales region, coincidentally the region where UKIP is finding the least success.
The UKIP list vote will do the most damage to the Lib Dems, the Tories and Plaid. One of the few things that keeps Labour strong in Wales is the fragmented opposition.
Still if you ask me, anyone voting UKIP in the Assembly is mental. The people UKIP want to stand on the list include Mark Reckless and Neil Hamilton. Voices for the working man by Christ! | | | |
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| Political Rumour on 14:45 - Jan 29 with 1043 views | trampie |
| Political Rumour on 14:30 - Jan 29 by acejack3065 |
"The UKIP vote might stop any hope of Plaid winning outright"
What planet are you on? The thing stopping Plaid from winning the Welsh Election outright is that they are in 3rd or 4th place in almost every constituency in Wales. To win the election they would need to take over 20 constituency seats and they currently have 5.
Your maths about how the UKIP vote will affect the assembly is totally wrong. After this election almost every area in Wales will be a UKIP area if they poll broadly as well as they did in the UK general election. All of their wins are expected to come from the "top up" seats where Labour is traditionally punished because of its success in the constituency vote. Labour only hold 2 top up seats in the assembly whcih come from the Mid and West Wales region, coincidentally the region where UKIP is finding the least success.
The UKIP list vote will do the most damage to the Lib Dems, the Tories and Plaid. One of the few things that keeps Labour strong in Wales is the fragmented opposition.
Still if you ask me, anyone voting UKIP in the Assembly is mental. The people UKIP want to stand on the list include Mark Reckless and Neil Hamilton. Voices for the working man by Christ! |
They are not my figures butt its what the pollsters and experts think, Labour down 3 seats, Plaid down 1, others down 5, therefore UKIP up 9.
Take it up with the experts, its some of the poor people particularly in South Wales that will vote UKIP when they used to vote Labour, that is how right wing Labour are that it is seen as a natural switch to go from Labour to UKIP in the polling booth for them, lol.
As regards Plaid winning an election they could do so if they repeated their 1999 performance where they had just under 30% of the popular vote in the constituencies and just over 30% of the vote in the regional list, Labour according to the experts might not get 30% in either list, therefore it would be a outside shot but just about plausible that Plaid could win an Assembly election although its big odds against.
Plaid have had 3 second place finishes and 1 third [last time out] in Assembly elections and that is all the elections, Plaid do far better in Assembly elections than General elections because some people think its a waste of time voting Plaid in Westminster elections but vote for them in Welsh Assembly elections. [Post edited 29 Jan 2016 15:07]
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| Political Rumour on 15:15 - Jan 29 with 989 views | Cottsy |
| Political Rumour on 13:29 - Jan 29 by trampie |
Its all ifs and buts, but if Labour don't get a majority they are probably more likely to try and form a coalition than go it alone, the party they are mostly to form a coalition with is Plaid and at that point the ball will be in Plaids court and Plaid could say we want Leanne as leader for half a term with only a few other demands, Labour might well say no and look elsewhere or go it alone as a minority Government.
Although its odds against its not unthinkable that i could happen, as if that is one of only a few demands in that scenario made by Plaid then it would be up to Labour to be a minority Government or go with the Conservative party or UKIP [Lib-Dems not likely to have many seats] or take the offer. lol. |
There are no ifs, buts, ands, ors or howevers about it, Plaid will have no leverage whatsoever to even think about bringing Leanne Wood as First Minister to the negotiating table.
The only place that the leader of the junior party in a coalition is going to be given the top job is in the vast, desolate desert between your ears.
If Labour do need Plaid in May its going to be on very similar terms to the One Wales agreement: 1 or 2 ministerial positions and a couple of sops to Plaid to keep them sweet over the course of the Assembly.
Remember Leanne Wood has already backed herself into a corner by saying she won't work with the Tories, it's work with Labour or nothing. |  |
| If man evolved from monkeys why do we still have monkeys? |
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| Political Rumour on 15:21 - Jan 29 with 974 views | trampie |
| Political Rumour on 15:15 - Jan 29 by Cottsy |
There are no ifs, buts, ands, ors or howevers about it, Plaid will have no leverage whatsoever to even think about bringing Leanne Wood as First Minister to the negotiating table.
The only place that the leader of the junior party in a coalition is going to be given the top job is in the vast, desolate desert between your ears.
If Labour do need Plaid in May its going to be on very similar terms to the One Wales agreement: 1 or 2 ministerial positions and a couple of sops to Plaid to keep them sweet over the course of the Assembly.
Remember Leanne Wood has already backed herself into a corner by saying she won't work with the Tories, it's work with Labour or nothing. |
Hey its not my rumour sh*g, its even in the media, the Red Rhondda Republican Rebel is on the march.  | |
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| Political Rumour on 15:40 - Jan 29 with 943 views | acejack3065 |
| Political Rumour on 14:45 - Jan 29 by trampie |
They are not my figures butt its what the pollsters and experts think, Labour down 3 seats, Plaid down 1, others down 5, therefore UKIP up 9.
Take it up with the experts, its some of the poor people particularly in South Wales that will vote UKIP when they used to vote Labour, that is how right wing Labour are that it is seen as a natural switch to go from Labour to UKIP in the polling booth for them, lol.
As regards Plaid winning an election they could do so if they repeated their 1999 performance where they had just under 30% of the popular vote in the constituencies and just over 30% of the vote in the regional list, Labour according to the experts might not get 30% in either list, therefore it would be a outside shot but just about plausible that Plaid could win an Assembly election although its big odds against.
Plaid have had 3 second place finishes and 1 third [last time out] in Assembly elections and that is all the elections, Plaid do far better in Assembly elections than General elections because some people think its a waste of time voting Plaid in Westminster elections but vote for them in Welsh Assembly elections. [Post edited 29 Jan 2016 15:07]
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Labour haven't got three seats to lose to UKIP. The three losses that are predicted are in the constituency vote. The losses are most likely to be Cardiff North, Vale of Glamorgan and possibly Llanelli, Vale of Clwyd or Delyn. Those losses would be to the Tories or Plaid. Labours list seats are relatively safe from being eroded by UKIP.
UKIPs gains are all on the list which hurts Plaid, the Lib Dems and the Tories, not Labour. If you think Plaid will only lose one seat at the behest of UKIP, the evening of May 5th is going to be as rough for you as it is me. The maths on the list could get weird and we will end up with a very different looking 1/3 of the assembly.
Aye and if only Labour had their '97 result last year too. | | | |
| Political Rumour on 16:02 - Jan 29 with 912 views | trampie |
| Political Rumour on 15:40 - Jan 29 by acejack3065 |
Labour haven't got three seats to lose to UKIP. The three losses that are predicted are in the constituency vote. The losses are most likely to be Cardiff North, Vale of Glamorgan and possibly Llanelli, Vale of Clwyd or Delyn. Those losses would be to the Tories or Plaid. Labours list seats are relatively safe from being eroded by UKIP.
UKIPs gains are all on the list which hurts Plaid, the Lib Dems and the Tories, not Labour. If you think Plaid will only lose one seat at the behest of UKIP, the evening of May 5th is going to be as rough for you as it is me. The maths on the list could get weird and we will end up with a very different looking 1/3 of the assembly.
Aye and if only Labour had their '97 result last year too. |
Its not what I think its what the pollsters and experts think, Labour down 3, Plaid down 1, Labour largest party but well short of forming a majority Government, Plaid to be ahead of UKIP.
Red Tories 27, Blue Tories 12, Plaid 10, Purple Tories 'kippers' 9, Yellow Tories 2.
That is what analysts were saying a few months ago, if so what does Labour do go it alone or form a coalition ?, if they form a coalition with who ?, what will the junior partner want from a coalition ?
Who knows what will happen judging by this Swansea board and the sentiment around the net Labour wont get 27 seats as the feeling towards them is going down and down the latest story is they sold land off worth millions and millions for a song, people on here complain that Labour are all Kaardiff supporters.
From a Plaid point of view if they can get back to second place and Labour win but have their weakest result ever the pressure will be on Labour to do a deal with Plaid and in that scenario you can guarantee that the Red Rhondda Republican Rebel will have demands.  | |
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| Political Rumour on 16:07 - Jan 29 with 900 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Political Rumour on 16:02 - Jan 29 by trampie |
Its not what I think its what the pollsters and experts think, Labour down 3, Plaid down 1, Labour largest party but well short of forming a majority Government, Plaid to be ahead of UKIP.
Red Tories 27, Blue Tories 12, Plaid 10, Purple Tories 'kippers' 9, Yellow Tories 2.
That is what analysts were saying a few months ago, if so what does Labour do go it alone or form a coalition ?, if they form a coalition with who ?, what will the junior partner want from a coalition ?
Who knows what will happen judging by this Swansea board and the sentiment around the net Labour wont get 27 seats as the feeling towards them is going down and down the latest story is they sold land off worth millions and millions for a song, people on here complain that Labour are all Kaardiff supporters.
From a Plaid point of view if they can get back to second place and Labour win but have their weakest result ever the pressure will be on Labour to do a deal with Plaid and in that scenario you can guarantee that the Red Rhondda Republican Rebel will have demands. |
There is absolutely no pressure whatsoever on Labour to give in to any Plaid demands.
Because they can just run as a minority government knowing damn well that Plaid can't vote against anything they do to give power to the Tories and UKIP. As has been said, she's boxed herself into a corner because she has less political nous than a banana.
It really should be simple enough for even you to understand Trampie. She either supports Labour or Tories/ UKIP and if she does the second now, she's toast.
Love you describing her losing one seat as 'charging on' though :-) |  | | |
| Political Rumour on 16:27 - Jan 29 with 864 views | trampie |
| Political Rumour on 16:07 - Jan 29 by londonlisa2001 |
There is absolutely no pressure whatsoever on Labour to give in to any Plaid demands.
Because they can just run as a minority government knowing damn well that Plaid can't vote against anything they do to give power to the Tories and UKIP. As has been said, she's boxed herself into a corner because she has less political nous than a banana.
It really should be simple enough for even you to understand Trampie. She either supports Labour or Tories/ UKIP and if she does the second now, she's toast.
Love you describing her losing one seat as 'charging on' though :-) |
There will be pressure on Labour as if Labour made a go of it alone then Plaid may abstain from a vote in a certain circumstance and the blue, yellow and purple Tories would then out vote Labour and Labour would know that is a possibility.
Plaid need to treat Labour as another Tory party no different to the other Tory parties [as I keep saying over and over], if Plaid allowed one lot of Tories in over another lot of Tories then it would not make any difference to Plaid voters.
Plaid voters are 'petite bourgeois', Leanne is a Red Rhondda Rebel who sees others in her valley as similar to her but the truth is its the rural areas that vote Plaid and not the rural poor either, so she should not rule anything in or out, but ruling something out and changing her mind for political gain in the context we are talking about would not make her toast.
She has an issue with blue Tories just like me but over the decades since Labour became the red Tories I have had an issue with them just like the blue Tories, Leanne would be better served imo if she recognised and treated both the red and blue Tories with the contempt they both deserve. | |
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| Political Rumour on 16:34 - Jan 29 with 850 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Political Rumour on 16:27 - Jan 29 by trampie |
There will be pressure on Labour as if Labour made a go of it alone then Plaid may abstain from a vote in a certain circumstance and the blue, yellow and purple Tories would then out vote Labour and Labour would know that is a possibility.
Plaid need to treat Labour as another Tory party no different to the other Tory parties [as I keep saying over and over], if Plaid allowed one lot of Tories in over another lot of Tories then it would not make any difference to Plaid voters.
Plaid voters are 'petite bourgeois', Leanne is a Red Rhondda Rebel who sees others in her valley as similar to her but the truth is its the rural areas that vote Plaid and not the rural poor either, so she should not rule anything in or out, but ruling something out and changing her mind for political gain in the context we are talking about would not make her toast.
She has an issue with blue Tories just like me but over the decades since Labour became the red Tories I have had an issue with them just like the blue Tories, Leanne would be better served imo if she recognised and treated both the red and blue Tories with the contempt they both deserve. |
If Plaid abstain they give power to the Tories / UKIP as well. Labour won't be blamed for that - Plaid will.
She can't do anything at all - she's Labour's poodle now. She should have shut up and seen which way the wind was blowing, but she's too stupid to see that and gave her power away - completely!
Labour must be laughing at her. | | | |
| Political Rumour on 16:44 - Jan 29 with 834 views | acejack3065 |
| Political Rumour on 16:02 - Jan 29 by trampie |
Its not what I think its what the pollsters and experts think, Labour down 3, Plaid down 1, Labour largest party but well short of forming a majority Government, Plaid to be ahead of UKIP.
Red Tories 27, Blue Tories 12, Plaid 10, Purple Tories 'kippers' 9, Yellow Tories 2.
That is what analysts were saying a few months ago, if so what does Labour do go it alone or form a coalition ?, if they form a coalition with who ?, what will the junior partner want from a coalition ?
Who knows what will happen judging by this Swansea board and the sentiment around the net Labour wont get 27 seats as the feeling towards them is going down and down the latest story is they sold land off worth millions and millions for a song, people on here complain that Labour are all Kaardiff supporters.
From a Plaid point of view if they can get back to second place and Labour win but have their weakest result ever the pressure will be on Labour to do a deal with Plaid and in that scenario you can guarantee that the Red Rhondda Republican Rebel will have demands. |
You were regurgitating the pollsters incorrectly then. You really are tedious and relentless with the Red Tory nonsense.
Labour will probably have to do some deal with a minor party but if you think that means Leanne Wood has a shot at becoming First minister then you really are beyond help.
Aye this football message board really is a finger on the pulse barometer of the Welsh voting public. The Lowest Labour could foreseeably drop to this time round would probably be 24 seats. Still easily the largest party.
What land was that then and who was it sold to and how much?
I'll put £50 on Leanne not being first minister in the next 5 years. Your call. Donation to the trust of course. | | | |
| Political Rumour on 16:47 - Jan 29 with 830 views | acejack3065 |
| Political Rumour on 16:34 - Jan 29 by londonlisa2001 |
If Plaid abstain they give power to the Tories / UKIP as well. Labour won't be blamed for that - Plaid will.
She can't do anything at all - she's Labour's poodle now. She should have shut up and seen which way the wind was blowing, but she's too stupid to see that and gave her power away - completely!
Labour must be laughing at her. |
Out of interest, what do you mean by "she should've seen which way the wind was blowing?"
Surely you don't mean form a rainbow coalition to keep labour out? | | | |
| Political Rumour on 16:58 - Jan 29 with 806 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Political Rumour on 16:47 - Jan 29 by acejack3065 |
Out of interest, what do you mean by "she should've seen which way the wind was blowing?"
Surely you don't mean form a rainbow coalition to keep labour out? |
On an issue by issue basis, yes.
I believe (caveat that this is a view from the outside as I live in England) that the Welsh
Labour group at Welsh government level us an absolute disaster for Wales as a whole. | | | |
| Political Rumour on 17:11 - Jan 29 with 779 views | acejack3065 |
| Political Rumour on 16:58 - Jan 29 by londonlisa2001 |
On an issue by issue basis, yes.
I believe (caveat that this is a view from the outside as I live in England) that the Welsh
Labour group at Welsh government level us an absolute disaster for Wales as a whole. |
If Welsh Labour gain more than 20 seats they will be in power through some agreement or another. It's almost unthinkable that Labour will get less than 20 seats as they'd need virtually all of their support to dry up for that to happen.
If Labour doesn't totally collapse, which it shouldn't even with things as bad as they are, the remaining parties couldn't keep Labour out for one reason. UKIP. No party is expected to get more than Labour and the smaller parties will really have their work cut out for them if UKIP make the list gains that people expect them to. No party will be able to formally agree any arrangements with them as it will be political suicide.
The Tories can't work with UKIP before the EU referendum. Plaid can't work with UKIP as it would cook their political goose. There wont be a Lib Dem party left so they are irrelevant.
As long as Labour have 1/3 of the seats and the opposition in Wales is fragmented, particularly with UKIP, Labour will be in control one way or another.
Welsh Labour haven't been brilliant but it's unfair to call them a disaster. Record health spending, record exam results, record inward investment. The WAG is still a relatively young institution and it needs to get better at many things. Cut out the BayPolitic for one. This year there will be a much larger fresh intake than ever before with the retirements and expected losses so hopefully things will change regardless of who wins what. | | | |
| Political Rumour on 17:13 - Jan 29 with 775 views | trampie |
| Political Rumour on 16:58 - Jan 29 by londonlisa2001 |
On an issue by issue basis, yes.
I believe (caveat that this is a view from the outside as I live in England) that the Welsh
Labour group at Welsh government level us an absolute disaster for Wales as a whole. |
Plaid considered joining a rainbow alliance against Labour in 03, from memory it was the South Wales women in the party that was against it, two of them very very prominent in Plaid today. [Post edited 29 Jan 2016 17:16]
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| Political Rumour on 17:15 - Jan 29 with 765 views | acejack3065 |
| Political Rumour on 17:13 - Jan 29 by trampie |
Plaid considered joining a rainbow alliance against Labour in 03, from memory it was the South Wales women in the party that was against it, two of them very very prominent in Plaid today. [Post edited 29 Jan 2016 17:16]
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I'm sure you can tell me. The difference this time is UKIP. No one will want to formally work with them in May. It's political suicide. | | | |
| Political Rumour on 17:26 - Jan 29 with 752 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Political Rumour on 17:11 - Jan 29 by acejack3065 |
If Welsh Labour gain more than 20 seats they will be in power through some agreement or another. It's almost unthinkable that Labour will get less than 20 seats as they'd need virtually all of their support to dry up for that to happen.
If Labour doesn't totally collapse, which it shouldn't even with things as bad as they are, the remaining parties couldn't keep Labour out for one reason. UKIP. No party is expected to get more than Labour and the smaller parties will really have their work cut out for them if UKIP make the list gains that people expect them to. No party will be able to formally agree any arrangements with them as it will be political suicide.
The Tories can't work with UKIP before the EU referendum. Plaid can't work with UKIP as it would cook their political goose. There wont be a Lib Dem party left so they are irrelevant.
As long as Labour have 1/3 of the seats and the opposition in Wales is fragmented, particularly with UKIP, Labour will be in control one way or another.
Welsh Labour haven't been brilliant but it's unfair to call them a disaster. Record health spending, record exam results, record inward investment. The WAG is still a relatively young institution and it needs to get better at many things. Cut out the BayPolitic for one. This year there will be a much larger fresh intake than ever before with the retirements and expected losses so hopefully things will change regardless of who wins what. |
That's why I said in an issue by issue basis.
Just as an example, let's say they tried to push through another £100m of funding to Cardiff Bay whatever. The others together should oppose it (since they all have said that the rest of Wales should get more equal funding).
So yes, Labour would retain power overall, but the Cardiff centric nonsense could be stopped instantly.
Record health spending is one thing but overall the service is poorer that in England because money gets wasted on stupidity such as free prescriptions (a policy which ONLY helps the well off as the people who need free prescriptions and children get them free anyway). That policy costs a fortune but still adds to 'record spending'.
And it doesn't matter if the institution is relatively young if the people in charge are useless which I believe them to be.
If they stop focussing on attempting to make a provincially sized capital one of the great European cities (which it will never be) they may achieve more. The rest of Wales is a complete afterthought to the great plan and its destroying the country overall. | | | |
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