A look at the records this season of Saints three transfer target speculations.

Since the news broke this morning that Saints may be interested in Coventry's Lukas Jutkiewicz, there has been much debate as to whether this is the signing that Saints need and shouldnt we really be going for the much better Nicky Maynard or Jay Rodriguez, for "Much Better" you could read "Much more expensive"

So the first question to ask when comparing possible signings is do you go on price or do you go on statistics, football is oftenan emotive game and its easy to confuse the tru worth of a player and his true ability when an inflated price is mentioned.

Out shortly is the film MoneyBall, the book that inspired this film was reviewed on this site at the start of the year qand to recap it tells of how Billy Beane of The Oakland A's scrapped the traditional way of signing players and looked at hard facts, he took the perrenial struggling A's to the play off's and they punched above there weight consistently, John Henry when he bought the Boston Red Sox employed the same way of thinking and took the Red Sox to their first World Series in a long long time, he will now be employing this same system at Liverpool, as the signing of Suarez and Carroll, shows though, looking for the worth of a player doesnt just mean buying cheaply.

Saints and Nigel Adkins being progressive thinkers will be looking at getting value from their players, whether they are signed for free or for bigger fee's.

So lets look at this seasons stats for all three. (League Games Only)

Jutkiewicz Played 17 Scored 6 (Coventry Total Goals For Season 14)

Career Total - Played 101(40) 32 Goal every 4.37 games 

Maynard   Played 17 Scored 6 (Bristol City Total Goals For Season 16)

Career Total - Played 154(19) Scored 75 Goal Every 2.3 games

Rodriguez Played 16 Scored 4 (Burnley Total Goals For Season 21)

Career Total - Played 66(35) Scored 24 Goal Every 4.2 Games

So their stats arent that much different for this season, in fact there is little to choose amongst them career wise apart from the fact that maynard has a better goals to game ratio, perhaps all we can take out of it is that Coventry dont score as many as the other two teams and therefore perhaps dont create as many chances, certainly Burnely have scored significantly more than the other two and have played one game less, that asks several questions of our scouts watching Rodriguez, why has he scored so few of that total, one answer of course could be that Charlei Austin has got 8, that being the case Rodriguez unlike the other two, isnt the main scoring outlet for his team, so is he more of a provider than scorer.

So having looked at statistics, you then have to look at price and value for money, only then do you get the true worth of a player, its all about how much it costs you per goal for each player, Jutkiewicz is rumoured to be valued at about £2-£3 Million, although I feel that he will be avaialable for much less, perhaps £1.5, Maynard has attracted bids in the £6 million mark, but being out of contract in the summer in January that will go down significantly, although City will want to recoup the £2.25 million they paid for him from Crewe, they wont be in a strong position. Finally Rodriguez will probably still cost £5 million, which is a lot of money for a player who hasnt got a great goals per game ratio, however as said he might not be an out and out goalscorer.

The third thing that Saints will look at is where he will fit in the team, I have already covered this in regard to Jutkiewicz in another article, but it seems that whislt he could be seen as a direct replacement for Rickie Lambert, the other two are far different types of players so would be more to complement the big centre forward rather than replace him.

This all being the case its easy to perhaps surmise that if Saints do land Jutkiewicz its not the last signing up front but merely a piece in the jigsaw, the Coventry man will provide not only proven back up but a player looking to make the centre forwards shirt his own in the next year or so, its a step up for him and a big opportunity if we dont get in the Premier league, Rickie Lambert is the key to the way we play, when he plays well we more than often win, when he is off form, we sometimes dont, given that probably the two things most likely to cost us promotion are Lambert being injured or Lambert being off form, it makes sense to sign cover and not just someone like Forte, realistically we arent going to get a premier league player in to act as second fiddle to Jutkiewicz fits the bill perfectly.

Then its down to the other two, on the face of it Maynard seems to offer the best value for money, he scores more than Rodriguez and given his out of contract status looming we could probably get him at around a third of the price it would cost us to get the Burnley man, also we would have that little more experience. Rodriguez looks set to go in the transfer window, Burnely have already signed up Sam Vokes, but the cost might be the prohibitive thing for Saints, at present they have the clout to spend big in Championship terms but that could all change if promotion is gained, That being the casei would expect us to use the Moneyball theory and if we do that it points to a double signing, Jutkiewicz for around £1.5 million and Maynard for about £2 million.

If we do that this will be a shrewd move on Saints part, they have used the money from Chamberlain wisely and still have a big chunk to look at a central defender, Hooiveld or otherwise.

In short its about value for money and its about the pounds per goal ratio and all being taken into account it makes sense to perhaps spend £4 million on two players who can score goals and also offer two different types of option than spend £6 million on one player who offers only one dimension.   

Photo: Action Images

bstokesaint added 13:19 - Nov 22 Interesting article Nick. We need a striker whatever. In my opinion Hooiveld has looked brilliant since his arrival and done a job. If he stayed I think cover upfront is the only place to strengthen right now.
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splurty added 13:47 - Nov 22 Lukas would fit the bill and given some Nigel coaching could really improve ,his strength is key if sir Ricky gets injured ,on maynard I am not sure about him ,he seems to have pace but lacks technical ability in the games I have watched him ,I would try george Boyd of Peterborough or asamoh of Bristol as they both have impressed me with their tekkers and in this team that is vital as it showed when forte played .in Nigel and the don I trust ;) coyr

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TimSaint added 17:13 - Nov 22 Despite good free scoring performances of late and plenty of options, should we get injuries up front, I believe we most definitely require cover for SRL. With winter soon upon us, those pitches will get wetter and heavier and fatigue and the odd knocks are bound to arrive. Lukas looks the better bet for me, as he is more of a direct replacement for SRL, but I though that Rodriguez was of a similar mould. If we still had Pardew in charge, he would definitely go for Maynard by Thursday, as he signed Punch just before the JPT semi finals with MK Dons and we have Bristol City away this weekend !! If the rumours are to be believed, then NA likes Rod, hence the bids before the transfer window closed, but then as we have said before, most of our deals now take place behind closed doors and if it ain't on the official site, it ain't true !! With Premiership asipirations, we look to be an attractive proposition for players to join us, more so than say Leicester, who were also bidding for Maynard. They already have lots of strikers, plus are apparently bidding £7m for some bloke from Glasgow Rangers. If we can get someone in on loan, then great. We can then argue about the price come January, once we've seen what they are capable of and what they are really worth.

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