The boys are back for the final time this season with an assessment of a gut wrenching weekend at the bottom of the Premiership, and some tips for elsewhere in the weekend sporting calendar.
We would have gotten away with it if it wasn’t for those pesky customer services representatives. Confession, Andy and I went hunting for emotional insurance during the week and happened upon a fault in the VC Bet system that was allowing you to back QPR to be relegated, Man City to win and Bolton to win as a treble, effectively taking the odds on Rangers dropping out of the league from 2/1 to just shy of 9/1. Two days later they got in touch, refunded the money and told us to behave. Andy is still hunting that insurance as a £50 win last week could only reduce his overall season loss to £202.82.
Brian had a win on the horses last week which means he’s once again finishing the season in profit, up £66.25 for a profit of £167.85.
Homecoming Queen romped in at 33/1 in the mud pit last week and gave a return of £108.75 and allowed a double jig of delight for myself and, as the Sun reported on Monday, a man in Leighton Buzzard who won £560 after placing £20 on it as his son had appeared in Sunday’s edition in a story about his body changing over the years so he now looks like a female. That’s Bedfordshire for you.
The Chester meeting this week have had problems not being to use stalls and emergency vehicles getting stuck in the mud plus the raft of abandoned meetings elsewhere means the ground is a major factor at present.
Sky could not have written the script better for Sunday with the title, relegation and Champions league places still up for grabs. Travelling to City on Sunday and we could see both sides of the coin with agony and ecstasy. I think it all depends on the result at the Brit as I don’t see us getting anything and we are placing our hopes on Crouchie (who will underline his hero status if he scores) and his Stoke mates. Cisse is 5/1 to score at anytime with Hills and is worth a punt at that price. Also have a small punt on Anton to score at anytime 33/1 – now there is a story
Elsewhere I will have a Luck 15 on first scorers as I have not done this for a while and looking at some of the games I just can’t work out if teams are on the beach or not.
At Haydock on Saturday Donald McCain fresh from his triumphs at Chester sends Red Merlin to challenge for the big race at 3.40 available at 9/1 is worth an each way chance.
Finally I know nowt about F1 but was struggling to pick another bet. I asked the resident petrol head in our office who he fancied for the Spanish Grand Prix and he rattled on about engines, tyres and chassis so after 10 minutes told him to button it and give me a name so he said Vettel at 3/1. This means I finish the year as I started more in hope than expectation.
Good luck, enjoy the Euros and the Olympics and I will see you at our first game of the season away to Arsenal/Barnsley next August.
For The Weekend:
£10 Cisse to score at anytime 5/1
£2.50 Ferdinand to score at any time 33/1
£7.50 e/w Red Merlin 3.40 Haydock
£1 Lucky 15 1st scorers
Andy Carroll 6/1
Papiss Cisse 11/2
Peter Crouch 6/1
Clint Dempsey 9/1
£7.50 Sebastian Vettel to win at 3/1
Well, a hastily rewritten column for me this week, following those spoilsports at BetVictor. For those who didn't see the betting thread ealier in the week, we managed to find a loophole in BetVictor, who accepted a bet from us for Man City to Win, Bolton to win and QPR to be relegated @ 9/1. BV took my money, and when the suggestion was made that the bet may be on dodgy ground because of related markets, it took three customer service assistants to look at it before finally deciding to void the bet.
I’m sticking with my original advice though, and backing against QPR. Yes, backing QPR to be relegated isn't very nice, and if they do get relegated it won't really soften the blow, but I consider it profiting from misery. You can generally get better odds on the straight QPR relegation than the Man City / Bolton win double, so I recommend going large on the straight relegation, currently best priced at 23/10 with 188Bet. Quite frankly I'd happily lose £100 if it meant that QPR stayed up this season.
And that's all I'm recommending for the week, and indeed the season. It's been a disastrous season for me betting wise truth be told, much like the team I was a ruthless combination of not very lucky and not very good. lessons have been learned however and I’ll definitely be more box clever next season.
Safe trip everyone travelling to Eastlands - say hello if you're around - I'll be the one that's next to Clive, but isn't Neil - and you never know, we might just get away with this...
For the Weekend:
QPR to be relegated: £50 @ 23/10 (188bet)
Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding is bottling it…
Last week, I said it didn't get much bigger than the game against Stoke but I can use the same terminology again here because in terms of finances and the potential future growth of our wonderful club, it is fair to say that Sunday is possibly the most important date in Rangers history. I was two minutes away from being proved right last week as I had tipped a Bolton win and a QPR v Stoke draw. I have never been more pleased to be wrong. I won’t go into big statistical detail this week. We all know Man City are excellent at home and we are terrible away. A lot of optimistic talk is that of Man City struggling under the pressure. However, this Man City team are full of players who have played at World Cup Finals, FA Cup finals, Euro and African Nations championships etc. I don't see pressure being a massive issue.
The one fact I will throw at you is I have read a fair bit of talk about 'If we can keep it tight for the first half, who knows??' The simple fact is since the turn of the year, QPR have failed to keep a single first half clean sheet. Man City on the other hand have only failed to score at home in the first half twice in the league during the same period and those games were against Chelsea and Tottenham in which Man City went on to win.
I think deep down we all expect our fate lies at the Britannia. So onto that game… Stoke wont roll over. They didn't roll over last week at Loftus Road and they most certainly won’t roll over at home. Pulis is under a touch of pressure from the Potters faithful at present and his troops will be up for this in front of a big crowd. It was not well taken alongside the River Trent when Wigan came and celebrated the great escape last year on their patch and they don't want it happening again. That said, I think it will be close and nervy. The loss of Wheater is a big blow for Bolton and this will hinder them. For Stoke I believe Peter Crouch will be very much up for this game for many reasons that don't need going into once again. Also Ricardo Fuller is at the end of his contract and will want to sign off with a bang if it is to be his swansong game. I'm not getting involved in predictions for this game. It’s going to be tight and nervy enough.
For my bet of the weekend, I am recommending a bet on Wolves to win at Wigan and end their very poor season on a good note. Wigan assured safety with a win over a lacklustre Blackburn on Monday and then had their s end of season awards night on Wednesday. I think they may still be in party mood and therefore think a small bet on Wolves to win at the DW at a general price of 5/1 is the bet.
Bet of weekend - Wolves to beat Wigan - 5/1 generally.
Tweet @loftforwords, @andy_hillman