Olle Söderholm previews the big game on Saturday as the Swans head to Derby County for their crucial Championship fixture at Pride Park. The avid Swansea City and IK Sirius fan joins us on the Indy again as he proves his knowledge with some very astute analysis. There will be more to come from Olle for sure.
On Saturday, the Jacks are hosted by Derby County. They currently sit in eleventh place in the Championship pending the outcome of this evenings game between Charlton Athletic and Stoke City. The Rams are coming from a 1–2 defeat against Ipswich, but before that they battered Bristol City 5–0. Since John Eustace took the helm a year ago, Derby have averaged around 1.5 points per game, and this season they’ve mostly sat just outside the playoffs. Swansea are trying to build some on-the-road momentum after the away win against Watford two weeks ago. Last time at the Swansea.com Stadium ended in a 1–2 defeat to the Rams, in what was Matos’ first game as Swansea head coach. The game saw the Swans dominate possession but concede two goals after some bad mistakes on the ball, poor pressing and marking. Despite the 73% possession, Matos’ side created little of value, only a superb Galbraith (below) goal in the dying minutes giving Swansea any hope. Matos will have learned since the last fixture, and a win here could see his team climb to potentially 11th place. Here are some things to look out for going into Saturday’s fixture:
Last time the teams met, Derby overloaded their offensive left flank, often getting into 2v1 or 3v2 situations. Josh Key and Ronald struggled to cover the gaps, as seen in Derby’s 1–0 goal, where a transition to the left side gave Callum Elder loads of time to play a cross to the far side, where right wing-back Joe Ward was left unmarked. The overloading of the left side wasn’t a Swansea-specific tactic though — Eustace often makes his 9 and 10 (recently that has been Agyemang and Clark respectively) drift to the left side, with left-back Callum Elder often coming up to support as well. On the other side, right wing-back Joe Ward runs up and down the field, playing in a lot of crosses. He and Elder have the most assists in the team this season (6 and 4).
In the 1–2 defeat, Matos started an out-of-form Key on the right side; on Saturday, we can expect that to be Galbraith instead, and I would suspect Ronald has clear instructions to track back and help his right-back. Derby have the second-lowest average possession in the league this season, and we can expect that trend to continue on Saturday. They are one of the league’s biggest over performers when it comes to outscoring their expected goals - xG (they have scored 45 goals compared to their 33 xG). This basically means Derby tend to score more often from shots that the average player wouldn’t score. xG does not showcase overall chance creation, but Derby have the best shot conversion rate in the league, so it’s quite safe to say offensively they’ve overperformed.
⚽️ What can Matos do this time?
As I alluded to, it will be important to protect our right flank, and Ronald should probably start on the wing since his defensive coverage and work rate are the best. Last time, Matos went for a Stamenic–Fulton–Cullen midfield, a trio that hasn’t started since. That midfield struggled to create in dangerous areas, break patterns, and progress the ball fast enough. Despite this, Swansea dominated the ball and had a lot of possession in the final third. To break the low/mid block that Derby most likely will have, the Swans need to combine, breaking patterns, make well-timed runs, create space, and shoot from range. This game state is something that fits our new arrival, Leo Walta, perfectly. I doubt the Finn will start, but he is very good at playing one-two passes, beating his man, as well as having a crack from range.
Either way, Swansea will hold the ball for large periods of time and will have to find ways to break through. Players like Galbraith, Eom, Nunes, Yalcouyé, and Walta could be crucial, as they all have that ability to create, beat their man, and create space. Players like Franco and Ronald will of course be needed as well, with their threatening runs opening up space and creating opportunities. A lot of things will change since last time: Galbraith will start at right-back, Vipotnik is in even better form, and Matos has had 2.5 months with the team instead of one day…
There are things in Swansea’s favour here. In the game against Ipswich, midfielder Lewis Travis was shown a red card and will therefore miss the game on Saturday. He has started a lot over the past two months, and his absence might be felt by the Rams. More importantly though is Derby’s horrendous home record. In the table for home games only, they sit at 20th place with a points per game (PPG) of 1.13 (their last home win was on January 1st). This of course needs to be compared with our horrendous away record. The Swans 19th in the away-only table with a PPG of 0.93. One of the worst teams at home against one of the worst teams away. The clash on Saturday will be fierce as both teams are chasing the dream of play-offs. Derby will look to change their woeful home form, as Swansea try to continue their on-the-road winning streak, with Matos looking to get his revenge.
Nice one Olle, We think you will agree he has a big writing career in front of him. Expect more from him and later this week we will introduce you to another Indy recruit, Rhys Clayton. For everything Swansea City stick with the Indy.
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