| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts 19:24 - Feb 19 with 1763 views | Northernr |
Simon Dorset's annual number crunch of the accounts released this week...
https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/ |  | | |  |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 19:43 - Feb 19 with 1648 views | R_from_afar |
Many thanks to all concerned for this valuable analysis, we're lucky to have it  . |  |
| "Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1." |
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| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 19:49 - Feb 19 with 1621 views | Hunterhoop |
Simon, this is great. Thank you. Really well explained and good to have your take.
One ask though. Would you be able to reproduce the last table on here if the assumptions were amended? I think the assumed £12m for the Eze sell on and Kelman sale is very generous. I think it is more like £9m (£6m and £3m), making this season’s player acquisitions £16.5m, what impact would that have? If I’m correct it would bring the risk of breaching the rolling loss into next season, would it not?
Given we appear to have received less for Dykes and Armstrong than was originally reported, it might be prudent to assume the value of player sales at the bottom of the potential bracket, and not what was reported in/leaked to the press.
Although get the last point in the article. I don’t think they are worried of breaching soon, because they expect to sell - that’s the model sold to the owners - but telling Hoos is very involved again. [Post edited 19 Feb 19:58]
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| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 19:51 - Feb 19 with 1615 views | colinallcars |
Thanks so much. I've bookmarked it and will try to comprehend later. I don't have a head for figures, not this sort anyhow… |  | | |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 20:02 - Feb 19 with 1576 views | OldPedro |
Thanks Simon, I will re-read again tomorrow with a clear head (been out on the beer this afternoon) but do you think we are desperate for sales next summer to meet financial rules or do we have a bit more leeway over the next couple of seasons? |  |
| Extra mature cheddar......a simple cheese for a simple man |
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| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 20:10 - Feb 19 with 1542 views | SimonD |
Thanks Hunter. Will do, leave it with me.
You did pick up on the fact that we were still owed over £2m for player sales as shown in the Cash Flow regarding players’ registrations table?
If you comment is based on the profit generated from these sales, we'd have to look back to see when Dykes' contract was extended as his remaining book value would have then been amortised over the extended term. |  | | |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 20:24 - Feb 19 with 1501 views | BristolR |
Many thanks SimonD, as clear an analysis as my addled brain will ever understand! Very much appreciate the quick turnaround and clarity of delivery. |  | | |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 20:52 - Feb 19 with 1345 views | SimonD |
Old Pedro, the numbers do suggest that, but there are assumptions in there.
We can only work with the number we have. If, for example, the sponsorship has stepped up again this season, you and I wouldn't be aware of that yet. [Post edited 19 Feb 21:55]
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| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 21:10 - Feb 19 with 1270 views | 89_50 |
This is an excellent piece. Thank you to all involved. |  | | |
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| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 21:50 - Feb 19 with 1148 views | Monkey_Roots |
Thanks Simon.
Just for a complete number knob like me, can you summarise your article nice and neatly with a thumbs up or thumbs down to the following question… are we in the shït? |  | | |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 21:54 - Feb 19 with 1140 views | SimonD |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 19:49 - Feb 19 by Hunterhoop |
Simon, this is great. Thank you. Really well explained and good to have your take.
One ask though. Would you be able to reproduce the last table on here if the assumptions were amended? I think the assumed £12m for the Eze sell on and Kelman sale is very generous. I think it is more like £9m (£6m and £3m), making this season’s player acquisitions £16.5m, what impact would that have? If I’m correct it would bring the risk of breaching the rolling loss into next season, would it not?
Given we appear to have received less for Dykes and Armstrong than was originally reported, it might be prudent to assume the value of player sales at the bottom of the potential bracket, and not what was reported in/leaked to the press.
Although get the last point in the article. I don’t think they are worried of breaching soon, because they expect to sell - that’s the model sold to the owners - but telling Hoos is very involved again. [Post edited 19 Feb 19:58]
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I think this is right for your numbers .......
Profit from player sales (Eze and Kelman) - £9m
Therefore, the acquisition cost of the summer purchases - £10.5m
All on 4-year contracts – annual amortisation £2.625m
Annual salary increase - £2.5m (bearing in mind that players have left too)
Edwards & Obikwu – cost £5.5m – annual amortisation £1.375 – annual salary £1m
For what it is worth, I don't agree with these numbers but understand your reason for asking. | | | |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 21:54 - Feb 19 with 1140 views | Northernr |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 21:50 - Feb 19 by Monkey_Roots |
Thanks Simon.
Just for a complete number knob like me, can you summarise your article nice and neatly with a thumbs up or thumbs down to the following question… are we in the shït? |
The answer I think is not yet, but if you don't start selling players for significant money in any of the next three transfer windows then yes you're heading back that way. | | | |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 22:00 - Feb 19 with 1114 views | Monkey_Roots |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 21:54 - Feb 19 by Northernr |
The answer I think is not yet, but if you don't start selling players for significant money in any of the next three transfer windows then yes you're heading back that way. |
Thanks mate | | | |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 22:30 - Feb 19 with 1019 views | OldPedro |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 20:52 - Feb 19 by SimonD |
Old Pedro, the numbers do suggest that, but there are assumptions in there.
We can only work with the number we have. If, for example, the sponsorship has stepped up again this season, you and I wouldn't be aware of that yet. [Post edited 19 Feb 21:55]
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Cheers | |
| Extra mature cheddar......a simple cheese for a simple man |
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| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 02:23 - Feb 20 with 700 views | LazyFan |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 21:54 - Feb 19 by SimonD |
I think this is right for your numbers .......
Profit from player sales (Eze and Kelman) - £9m
Therefore, the acquisition cost of the summer purchases - £10.5m
All on 4-year contracts – annual amortisation £2.625m
Annual salary increase - £2.5m (bearing in mind that players have left too)
Edwards & Obikwu – cost £5.5m – annual amortisation £1.375 – annual salary £1m
For what it is worth, I don't agree with these numbers but understand your reason for asking. |
Well it was rumoured we only got ...
Eze sell-on - £6m
Kelman - £3.5m
Rumours for:
Edwards - £4.5m
Obikwu - £0.5m
So, I can see why the poster thought you overestimated the sales! |  |
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| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 04:31 - Feb 20 with 628 views | FDC |
Like others this kind of stuff completely bewilders me - I go in to a kind of defensive cognitive shut down, my brain just refuses to engage. But I genuinely appreciate the work and effort that Simon and others do to help the likes of me understand what's going on behind the scenes at our daft little club. Thank you. |  | | |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 06:20 - Feb 20 with 544 views | numptydumpty |
I do think Nourry should have done his Q & A after this accounts release and answered the questions that Simon has kindly interpreted for us all.
Even, if he would have put a bit of gloss on it, think its poor he set the date for answering fans questions, a few days before the release of the annual accounts.
Its almost like he did not want to talk about this.....
Not the best look..... [Post edited 20 Feb 6:21]
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| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 07:45 - Feb 20 with 407 views | Hunterhoop |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 21:54 - Feb 19 by SimonD |
I think this is right for your numbers .......
Profit from player sales (Eze and Kelman) - £9m
Therefore, the acquisition cost of the summer purchases - £10.5m
All on 4-year contracts – annual amortisation £2.625m
Annual salary increase - £2.5m (bearing in mind that players have left too)
Edwards & Obikwu – cost £5.5m – annual amortisation £1.375 – annual salary £1m
For what it is worth, I don't agree with these numbers but understand your reason for asking. |
Simon, shouldn’t the player acquisition costs be £16.5m in this scenario to reach the same net outflow position as stated in the accounts? That would change these revised numbers significantly. It’s this scenario, less for Eze and Kelman, more on the players we’ve signed, than the one in your article, that I’m interested to see.
Appreciate you taking the time to do this, Simon. Like you, I don’t believe the figures in the post above and think the ones in your article make sense; I just think they are a slightly generous interpretation. I honestly don’t see how we got close to £12m for Kelman and Eze. And I think that amortisation figure is larger based on player acquisitions this year. All this different scenario would show, I think, is that the need for sales in the next 3 windows is even bigger, but I might show we need a sale inside the next 2, which was my initial impression. [Post edited 20 Feb 8:04]
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| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 07:58 - Feb 20 with 373 views | R_from_afar |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 04:31 - Feb 20 by FDC |
Like others this kind of stuff completely bewilders me - I go in to a kind of defensive cognitive shut down, my brain just refuses to engage. But I genuinely appreciate the work and effort that Simon and others do to help the likes of me understand what's going on behind the scenes at our daft little club. Thank you. |
I'm exactly the same  . | |
| "Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1." |
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| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 08:10 - Feb 20 with 327 views | SimonD |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 07:45 - Feb 20 by Hunterhoop |
Simon, shouldn’t the player acquisition costs be £16.5m in this scenario to reach the same net outflow position as stated in the accounts? That would change these revised numbers significantly. It’s this scenario, less for Eze and Kelman, more on the players we’ve signed, than the one in your article, that I’m interested to see.
Appreciate you taking the time to do this, Simon. Like you, I don’t believe the figures in the post above and think the ones in your article make sense; I just think they are a slightly generous interpretation. I honestly don’t see how we got close to £12m for Kelman and Eze. And I think that amortisation figure is larger based on player acquisitions this year. All this different scenario would show, I think, is that the need for sales in the next 3 windows is even bigger, but I might show we need a sale inside the next 2, which was my initial impression. [Post edited 20 Feb 8:04]
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The one thing we do know is that the post reporting date events do say the difference between our buying and selling over the summer was £1.5m. If we are producing a scenario with reduced sales, the purchase must come down too, or do you see it another way?
With regard to the Eze sell-on, we were all happily talking about 20% of the transfer fee for most of his time at Palace. Using that (£12m) would put the cost of our summer signings near the ball park figures that were flying around in the summer.
We'll have a better idea this time next year. [Post edited 20 Feb 8:18]
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| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 08:15 - Feb 20 with 313 views | SimonD |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 06:20 - Feb 20 by numptydumpty |
I do think Nourry should have done his Q & A after this accounts release and answered the questions that Simon has kindly interpreted for us all.
Even, if he would have put a bit of gloss on it, think its poor he set the date for answering fans questions, a few days before the release of the annual accounts.
Its almost like he did not want to talk about this.....
Not the best look..... [Post edited 20 Feb 6:21]
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If Nourry have taken a question on this, do you think he'd have satisfactorily answered it?
Nor me. | | | |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 08:28 - Feb 20 with 258 views | Hunterhoop |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 08:10 - Feb 20 by SimonD |
The one thing we do know is that the post reporting date events do say the difference between our buying and selling over the summer was £1.5m. If we are producing a scenario with reduced sales, the purchase must come down too, or do you see it another way?
With regard to the Eze sell-on, we were all happily talking about 20% of the transfer fee for most of his time at Palace. Using that (£12m) would put the cost of our summer signings near the ball park figures that were flying around in the summer.
We'll have a better idea this time next year. [Post edited 20 Feb 8:18]
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Sorry, I’m being stupid. I was working off the net outflow being 1.5m + the 2.4m of contingencies, which would increase the acquisition cost and therefore add cost into the amortisation, making the numbers a little worse. | | | |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 08:37 - Feb 20 with 231 views | SimonD |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 08:28 - Feb 20 by Hunterhoop |
Sorry, I’m being stupid. I was working off the net outflow being 1.5m + the 2.4m of contingencies, which would increase the acquisition cost and therefore add cost into the amortisation, making the numbers a little worse. |
No worries.
You are perfectly correct about the contingencies making the situation worse if realised. | | | |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 08:49 - Feb 20 with 192 views | Hunterhoop |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 08:37 - Feb 20 by SimonD |
No worries.
You are perfectly correct about the contingencies making the situation worse if realised. |
Yeah, when I was looking at it, and fag packeting it, I estimated the net outflow this season to £1.5m + £2.4m contingencies + £4.5m for Edwards, so £8.4m, and I’d forgotten Obikwu! That’s why I had in mind less money received for Eze and Kelman and more spent.
From a planning perspective, and in terms of assessing what action they need to take, they should assume the contingencies will hit. That would be the prudent approach. | | | |
| Daylight fading, or speculate to accumulate? – 24/25 Accounts on 09:14 - Feb 20 with 127 views | stevec |
As long as there’s FFP our heads will be constantly bobbing just above or below the water line, pretty much like every other Championship club.
Good stuff from Simon, seems we’re reenacting the 2021 season and one three or four years before that, come up briefly for air, then back under and hold your breath, although these days, perhaps with a better focus.
Short of getting promoted, football needs to look at the fundamental issues that create the problems. If salaries were limited to say 85% of income, still ridiculously high, it would improve our situation by nigh on £3.5 mill a year, over £10 mill on a 3 year cycle.
Would your average footballer losing 13% of his salary put him on the bread line, I think not. I’m pretty sure too, you’d still see the same players in the same league playing for the same team as all clubs would be placed in the same situation and as we know, if they’re good enough to play in the Premier, that is where they will go.
The club have in recent years done an excellent job in filling the ground, although probably taking a hit around £500k-£1m with the lower school end. Usually, when demand matches supply, which were getting very close to, a business will see this as an opportunity to increase ticket prices. I suspect in future years, ST prices will go up at a higher percentage than over the last ten year average. A 15% increase raises another £1mill a season and I would think the season gones marginal fall in ticket sale income won’t go unnoticed.
Finally, Ruben is still taking a hit of £20 mill a year. When you’ve got the kind of money where you can take that hit, I’m always surprised that owners don’t decide to use an equivalent amount of money to set up a non football company, link it to the club, using profits to reduce the football deficit and use that to build a better football team. Seems more sensible than just throwing money at a lost cause year on year. |  | | |
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