| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... 13:58 - May 9 with 107435 views | hubble |
..posted by a good friend of mine on Facebook, thought I'd share it on here. He's a former professional footballer (briefly for Birmingham City) and a former copper, working mainly out of Camden police station. He grew up in Kilburn/Queens Park. He's now a writer (among other things).
Worth a read I think, hope you enjoy, whether you agree with him or not, even when he veers off-topic...
"Thoughts of the Week (part 1)
Let’s start with a subheading. ‘Dear, oh dear Diane Abbot!’
In the upcoming General Election campaign and apart from the ‘Leader’ (no, not Gary Glitter) no one is more important for the Labour Party campaign than the Shadow Home Secretary. Why’s this? You ask.
The reason is obvious: Theresa May —the strong woman, Ms subtle, but steely - was the former Home Secretary. A position which she used to inflict near terminal ravages of the nation’s police forces. Under her auspices we saw numbers cut, benefits cut and police stations closed willy-nilly to cash in, short-term, on the booming (especially in London) property market.
The short-sightedness of this policy is astounding. No matter the so-called austerity budget (which only seems to apply to the working classes, while the privileged elite continue to live the life of Riley) the question must be asked as to what will happen when there’s some serious social unrest — and you can feel it stirring. Remember 2011 when the riots broke out? We had anarchy and nihilism on the streets and the police force didn’t cope with it at all. Instead we had a grand mopping up campaign. Suddenly all those poor silly students who had been demonised as hard-core criminals after they smashed the windows of the Tory HQ — and received ridiculously harsh prison sentences for what were in the main first offences - were kicked out of the pokey and replaced by the new batch of rioters. The Criminal Justice system ground to a halt, the prison’s overflowed. The courts were as ram-jam packed as a back-in-the-day David Rodigan dance. In response what did the great Theresa May do? She further decimated the police force. She did the same to the prison service. The vaunted Border Force, our first defence, is comically short of manpower and morale as they attempt to hire staff on Mickey-Mouse contracts. Labour should be slaughtering Theresa May on what she’s done. Instead we got that car crash of an interview on LBC.
To be honest I resisted calls to listen to it for a time. Some of my more right-leaning pals were raving about it, but I thought they were overreacting due to a general contempt for the Hackney MP. I was wrong. When I actually got round to listening to it I couldn’t believe what I was hearing. It was stunningly incompetent, mind-blowingly nonsensical, embarrassing and shocking. Is this the Shadow Home Secretary who’s going to lead the challenge to Theresa May’s record? She should have stood down immediately and if not the great leader should have forced her hand, no matter past rendezvous in the sack. Of course it didn’t happen and Labour under Jeremy Corbyn has no hope in this election. What a shame it all is because there are loads of issues that they should be taking the government to task on. Just look at that bumbling Tommy Cooper impersonator of a Foreign Secretary, a million miles removed from a serious statesman: Mr Retraction — an embarrassment to the nation.
I’m voting Labour in the coming election, but not for Jeremy, more for the thought of the millions of people who are going to suffer under the coming five years of Tory rule: the working men and women who haven’t seen their wages rise, in real terms, for the last thirty years, while the fat cats, sharks and speculators are minted; the students starting out life saddled with debt; the millions who’ll never be able to afford a home; and in honour of the National Health Service, soon to be dismantled further, but remaining the brightest light in the nation’s modern history. What a rotten, unfair and unbalanced society we’ve become.
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:44 - Jun 6 with 1618 views | JamesB1979 |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:36 - Jun 6 by johncharles |
I wonder how many centrists will be up late tomorrow night composing a letter to Corbyn.
"Dear Jeremy my old comrade, I always knew you would win. I was always on your side really. Never doubted you for a moment. It was the others.
Please give me a job in your super new cabinet,
etc. |
None. It will be other way around as he'll need more talent in his cabinet. Mock the centrists all you like but it was this block vote that got Blair his landslide. |  | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:44 - Jun 6 with 1618 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:39 - Jun 6 by Northernr |
None. |
None is right, if JC loses but gets anywhere near in number of seats they will all feck off to make some new party called new new Labour |  |
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:45 - Jun 6 with 1618 views | johncharles |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:39 - Jun 6 by Hunterhoop |
They're just summarising the story. The quantitative analysis hasn't been editorialised.
And I know it's only welfare. That's all I ever said it was...and the article said it was.
I just find it disappointing how many seemingly reasonable people forego balanced analysis or evidence when it doesn't suit their preconceptions and the party they support. |
Lets face it, you've only picked this set of figures because it suits your preconceptions and favours the party you support.
One man's balanced analysis is another man's propaganda. |  |
| Strong and stable my arse. |
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:45 - Jun 6 with 1616 views | Hunterhoop |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:04 - Jun 6 by DannytheR |
It's an interesting story, but you can slant it in one of two ways. Yes, it's a shame that Labour can't or won't lift more people out of financial hardship - you could also look at it as evidence their economic plans are nowhere near as irresponsible or profligate as has been made out.
Obviously, a decision has been made to devote a certain amount of money to ending tuition fees. With that one, it looks to me like an issue that isn't only about the right of ordinary kids to get educated, it's also about the future prosperity of the whole country. As things stand other countries will speed ahead of us because they look at all their young people as a potential talent pool, instead of setting up obstacles for people without wealthy parents and allowing mediocre but well-to-do kids a free pass into the professions, politics and power.
And I hate to say it, but if you find resistance here or in real life to the Lib Dems, people still haven't forgotten what happened with Clegg and tuition fees. That wasn't anything to do with headline hunting, it was about what the Lib Dems did once you actually, finally got into power. Clegg had barely got his arse into the ministerial limo before he betrayed his own campaign promises and British young people. This is why you're still on single figures in the polls. At least the Tories never pretended to be on the side of ordinary kids in the first place! |
That's a reasonable analysis. However, LDs policies manage to positively impact more poorer households.
The Clegg/Tuition fees thing is again a unsurpring, commonplace, and in some ways fair assessment. Strategically, it's proved to be disastrous. And yes, it was a U-turn on a central manifesto pledge. At the same time, they gained a huge concession from the Tories in return, which has positively impacted many people: increasing the income tax threshold. It's put money directly back in people's pockets, and benefited the poorer the most.
In fact, as we've discussed here before, it's had such a positive economic impact, the Tories and Lab nicked it as a concept. It'll almost certainly go up again in the first post election budget.
Was it worth it? Depends who you are, I suppose. Like everything with politics it's grey, not black and white. |  | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:53 - Jun 6 with 1581 views | 1BobbyHazell |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:44 - Jun 6 by JamesB1979 |
None. It will be other way around as he'll need more talent in his cabinet. Mock the centrists all you like but it was this block vote that got Blair his landslide. |
And there was me thinking that every interview I've seen of ex Labour supporters from traditional Labour heartlands consisted of them complaining that the Labour party no longer represented the working class.
Look no further than the likes of Milliband, Smith etc etc to see why. |  | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:54 - Jun 6 with 1578 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:45 - Jun 6 by Hunterhoop |
That's a reasonable analysis. However, LDs policies manage to positively impact more poorer households.
The Clegg/Tuition fees thing is again a unsurpring, commonplace, and in some ways fair assessment. Strategically, it's proved to be disastrous. And yes, it was a U-turn on a central manifesto pledge. At the same time, they gained a huge concession from the Tories in return, which has positively impacted many people: increasing the income tax threshold. It's put money directly back in people's pockets, and benefited the poorer the most.
In fact, as we've discussed here before, it's had such a positive economic impact, the Tories and Lab nicked it as a concept. It'll almost certainly go up again in the first post election budget.
Was it worth it? Depends who you are, I suppose. Like everything with politics it's grey, not black and white. |
The only thing you lot have come up with is May's new shoes flip flops | |
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:54 - Jun 6 with 1578 views | Phildo |
Any late predictions at this stage?
I think it is going to be an easy win for the blue team but with the managers long term credibility damaged. Unlikely she will be allowed to go into another election.
Polling industry seems to be having a breakdown though,
I think this article could be about right:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-i
Fully accept it could come out a whole other way though.... |  | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:56 - Jun 6 with 1572 views | JamesB1979 |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:53 - Jun 6 by 1BobbyHazell |
And there was me thinking that every interview I've seen of ex Labour supporters from traditional Labour heartlands consisted of them complaining that the Labour party no longer represented the working class.
Look no further than the likes of Milliband, Smith etc etc to see why. |
True but did Ed get elected? Will Corbyn? Blair got a landslide.....or was it 2? Difficult to do anything when you sat on the opposition benches. | | | |
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:58 - Jun 6 with 1563 views | 1BobbyHazell |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:54 - Jun 6 by Phildo |
Any late predictions at this stage?
I think it is going to be an easy win for the blue team but with the managers long term credibility damaged. Unlikely she will be allowed to go into another election.
Polling industry seems to be having a breakdown though,
I think this article could be about right:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-i
Fully accept it could come out a whole other way though.... |
Unfortunately I still think it will be a comfortable win for the Tories. | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:00 - Jun 6 with 1557 views | JamesB1979 |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:54 - Jun 6 by Phildo |
Any late predictions at this stage?
I think it is going to be an easy win for the blue team but with the managers long term credibility damaged. Unlikely she will be allowed to go into another election.
Polling industry seems to be having a breakdown though,
I think this article could be about right:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-i
Fully accept it could come out a whole other way though.... |
I think result will be pretty much as we were in Parliament. May will have lost credibility, Corbyn will be boosted but still in charge of losing campaign. On the plus side, this whole election rubbish will be over for 5 years. | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:03 - Jun 6 with 1545 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
Osbourn is still bashing May in the standard about the terrorists
Traitory is not confined to the PLP | |
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:04 - Jun 6 with 1531 views | 1BobbyHazell |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:56 - Jun 6 by JamesB1979 |
True but did Ed get elected? Will Corbyn? Blair got a landslide.....or was it 2? Difficult to do anything when you sat on the opposition benches. |
Blair was in the unique position of attracting some centrist, right voters whilst, initially, still carrying the traditional labour voters. His movement of the party to the right gradually dawned on the traditionals who became the people I described who felt that the labour party no longer represented them.
Their trust now has to be won back through the thick fog of media misrepresentation of the new leader. A fog which has thinned considerably through the focus brought to bear on its veracity by an election campaign and the chance for people to actually listen and read his words as opposed to a biased misrepresentation of them. | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:08 - Jun 6 with 1515 views | FDC |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:54 - Jun 6 by Phildo |
Any late predictions at this stage?
I think it is going to be an easy win for the blue team but with the managers long term credibility damaged. Unlikely she will be allowed to go into another election.
Polling industry seems to be having a breakdown though,
I think this article could be about right:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-i
Fully accept it could come out a whole other way though.... |
I guess it depends where you go canvassing, but my experiences over in Bolton West (a marginal, fairly 'blue' Labour, not exactly a cosmopolitan heartland) don't chime with this report. This guy has form of erroneously predicting catastrophe for Corbyn incidentally.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/atul-hatwal/jeremy-corbyn_b_7855560.html
My prediction would be a small majority for Conservatives, with the wheels coming off as soon as Brexit negotiations start. [Post edited 6 Jun 2017 15:09]
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:10 - Jun 6 with 1501 views | FDC |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:03 - Jun 6 by 2Thomas2Bowles |
Osbourn is still bashing May in the standard about the terrorists
Traitory is not confined to the PLP |
The Tories are brutal - May is gonna whatever happens. | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:10 - Jun 6 with 1499 views | johncharles |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:39 - Jun 6 by Northernr |
None. |
I was talking about Wednesday night. Thursday night is something else. What I was trying to say was the rats will be hedging their bets. The ship might not be sinking after all. | |
| Strong and stable my arse. |
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:10 - Jun 6 with 1497 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
It the papers tomorrow are all front page abbot.........  | |
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:22 - Jun 6 with 1461 views | DannytheR |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:54 - Jun 6 by Phildo |
Any late predictions at this stage?
I think it is going to be an easy win for the blue team but with the managers long term credibility damaged. Unlikely she will be allowed to go into another election.
Polling industry seems to be having a breakdown though,
I think this article could be about right:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-i
Fully accept it could come out a whole other way though.... |
I think the Tories will win with an increased majority of 60-ish.
And then off we go straight into Brexit negotiations under a PM who just masterminded one of the worst electoral campaigns in modern political history, proving herself accident prone, indecisive and dishonest, with the country publicly tied to an America on its way to becoming an international pariah, and this as our global face:
 |  | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:39 - Jun 6 with 1381 views | robith |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:44 - Jun 6 by JamesB1979 |
None. It will be other way around as he'll need more talent in his cabinet. Mock the centrists all you like but it was this block vote that got Blair his landslide. |
It was also the centrists who lost 5 millions votes, and held on because of massively depressed turnout levels post 1997 |  | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:40 - Jun 6 with 1379 views | Hunterhoop |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:45 - Jun 6 by johncharles |
Lets face it, you've only picked this set of figures because it suits your preconceptions and favours the party you support.
One man's balanced analysis is another man's propaganda. |
Genuinely not. I read it (I have a paper subscription - not set up any online thing - laziness, and I prefer the paper mag). And seeing it was the IFS, an independent body, thought it was interesting. This is an interesting thread where people share links. Not sure what the issue is apart from you don't like it because it doesn't fit your narrative. It's equally interesting how few media outlets have published it, presumably because it doesn't suit either of the two main narratives as well.
As I've said countless times, I'm Lib Dem, because I'm a social liberal, who believes in the broad principles of economic liberalism PROVIDING govt intervention takes place to ensure citizens aren't being unduly adversely affected by free markets and globalisation. I believe in fairness. I believe far more people than vote Lib Dem have political beliefs which most closely align with the Lib Dems over the other parties. I think the Lib Dem's manifesto is the one I agree with the most, and I want them represented in Parliament.
But I don't support them come what may. I don't see it like supporting a football team. I don't rate Farron, don't think their manifesto is perfect, not their track record.
In future a different party may represent my views, as they are today, more closely.
I don't think any of the above is unreasonable. | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:44 - Jun 6 with 1363 views | robith |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:54 - Jun 6 by Phildo |
Any late predictions at this stage?
I think it is going to be an easy win for the blue team but with the managers long term credibility damaged. Unlikely she will be allowed to go into another election.
Polling industry seems to be having a breakdown though,
I think this article could be about right:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-i
Fully accept it could come out a whole other way though.... |
I think it all hinges on turnout.
Less than 66%, Tories 100+. Over 70% - Tory maj under 30 Over 75% hung parliament.
The main issue is that the Lib Dems simply aren't going to take back those south west seats, which makes it very difficult for Lab to achieve much.
Hoping I'm wrong, but I daren't believe the polls. | | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:45 - Jun 6 with 1362 views | Hunterhoop |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:22 - Jun 6 by DannytheR |
I think the Tories will win with an increased majority of 60-ish.
And then off we go straight into Brexit negotiations under a PM who just masterminded one of the worst electoral campaigns in modern political history, proving herself accident prone, indecisive and dishonest, with the country publicly tied to an America on its way to becoming an international pariah, and this as our global face:
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You think it'll be as high as that?
I think 30-50 seat majority.
But I do think it all depends on how successful Corbyn has been in swing seats and not preaching to the converted. That wouldn't be an issue with a better, fairer electoral system.
Sadly, I think the LDs may lose seats and end up with 7! Failure in SW London and SW England would mean Farron has to go (not necessarily a bad thing). Hopefully enough people will vote LD in the constituencies where it's a straight shoot out between them and The Tories. But I don't get that vibe.
If the Tories do get a majority, watch the boundary changes be pushed through pronto in the next term! [Post edited 6 Jun 2017 15:48]
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:53 - Jun 6 with 1344 views | EastR |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 14:25 - Jun 6 by Northernr |
In other disastrous political interview news, Andrew Mitchell couldn't tell Victoria Derbyshire what the minimum wage was this morning, or how many people are on the council house waiting list.
It's absolute car crash stuff on both sides this. Their interview prep is absolutely shambolic. |
We’re just seeing the effect of the demands for wall to wall, 24 hr/ 7 days a week coverage. Repetitive output, badly researched pieces, and woefully under prepared ‘experts’ most of who are not up to the job.
Having said that, nobody would expect a man of the people like Mitchell to know what the plebs earn. | |
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:57 - Jun 6 with 1327 views | Northernr |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:53 - Jun 6 by EastR |
We’re just seeing the effect of the demands for wall to wall, 24 hr/ 7 days a week coverage. Repetitive output, badly researched pieces, and woefully under prepared ‘experts’ most of who are not up to the job.
Having said that, nobody would expect a man of the people like Mitchell to know what the plebs earn. |
Possibly. Just looking at it with my journalist hat on though I cannot believe that they don't have this sort of sht absolutely drilled into them before they go on. |  | | |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:58 - Jun 6 with 1325 views | Jigsore |
| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 15:45 - Jun 6 by Hunterhoop |
You think it'll be as high as that?
I think 30-50 seat majority.
But I do think it all depends on how successful Corbyn has been in swing seats and not preaching to the converted. That wouldn't be an issue with a better, fairer electoral system.
Sadly, I think the LDs may lose seats and end up with 7! Failure in SW London and SW England would mean Farron has to go (not necessarily a bad thing). Hopefully enough people will vote LD in the constituencies where it's a straight shoot out between them and The Tories. But I don't get that vibe.
If the Tories do get a majority, watch the boundary changes be pushed through pronto in the next term! [Post edited 6 Jun 2017 15:48]
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I think tactical voting is going to be big this year. Every part except UKIP, who aren't really even worth mentioning, and I suppose the DUP agree they're pure evil. Might end up an even smaller majority |  |
| “The thing about football - the important thing about football - is that it is not just about football.†|
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| On Diane Abbot, why we should vote Labour anyway, and more... on 16:00 - Jun 6 with 1319 views | kensalriser |
Betting markets have Tory majority at 79.
Saying that, I had spreadbets on Clinton and Remain that were both well into profit right up until the results started coming in and had to get out sharpish to avoid losses. |  |
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