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And one further thought; if the people actually advising the shareholders are of the caliber I anticipate, they need to thoroughly contemplate the following identity:
Enterprise (unleveraged) value (EV)=Equity Value + Net Debt.
Then evaluate Cardiff, Fulham, Crystal Palace, QPR, etc, on that basis as comparables.
I was told about American interest last week. I chose not to mention it though, I'd rather wait to see what happens. If the buyers are good, I wouldn't want to put them off with an endless stream of BS. And if the terms can't be agreed, nothing changes. Which is my preferred option right now.
I really don't believe that HJ, MM or most of the others would sell, only way l think they would probably feel safe to do so, is if its some way connected to Brian Katzan who is probably or a similar mind to ensure that the Club is 100% safe, but its a given that the Trust would have to stay for me. At the end of the day though l doubt that there's any serious foundation to this.
I really don't believe that HJ, MM or most of the others would sell, only way l think they would probably feel safe to do so, is if its some way connected to Brian Katzan who is probably or a similar mind to ensure that the Club is 100% safe, but its a given that the Trust would have to stay for me. At the end of the day though l doubt that there's any serious foundation to this.
I'm pretty confident if any major sharehoder (excluding The Trust) got offered tens of millions they'd take it.
We've seen that the mentality of some board members has changed drastically over the years. Those advertising boards which most clubs in the world thought were too much of an insult to fans to implement were implemented here without any second thoughts given to the fans.
If you think they're still the 'run by the fans for the mans' gentlemen who bought us from Petty you're wrong.
I'm pretty confident if any major sharehoder (excluding The Trust) got offered tens of millions they'd take it.
We've seen that the mentality of some board members has changed drastically over the years. Those advertising boards which most clubs in the world thought were too much of an insult to fans to implement were implemented here without any second thoughts given to the fans.
If you think they're still the 'run by the fans for the mans' gentlemen who bought us from Petty you're wrong.
The thing is also, in all likelihood they will end up selling their shares at some point in the future, so they're obviously going to sell them when it best suits them and if they feel that point is now then like you I'd be confident that they would take the money on offer.
I just hope that they see through the dollar signs and have a think about who it is they are selling too and ensure they have the best interest of the club in mind.
I'll find it very funny if after all the abuse I took questioning why we went on such a puzzling and lacklusture pre season tour to the States it turns out it was a travelling sales pitch by Huw and co.
The conditions of any deal are obviously the crux of the matter for us supporters aren't they?....control....restrictions....safeguards...debt ceilings. Plus of course supporter representation. I think Shaky is spot on about future capital gain being the driver, as the only other 'investment' option is large dividend/interest payments that are a dressed up asset strip unless they are proportionate to growth.......although to be fair I can never see the logic of the capital gain, as why is there a gain unless there is an end game asset strip in the long run...?
I've no doubt that eventually there will be further funds raised..it's too big a business to ignore any serious interest (how many of you would turn down multi millions..much as I don't like the idea of it happening in this case), I just hope that somehow, sufficient influence is retained in the hands of supporters or there are tight restrictions in terms of protecting the interests of the club and its associated community, rather than the owners.
In my gut, I don't really like it though, even if it means we get 'bigger'. Not. One. Bit.
So I hope it is just fantasy.
edit - plus of course any restrictions or covenants would need to be in perpertuity or we might just become a bauble passed from hand to hand until we drew a Ridsdale, Hammam or Tan.
I'll find it very funny if after all the abuse I took questioning why we went on such a puzzling and lacklusture pre season tour to the States it turns out it was a travelling sales pitch by Huw and co.
Why would that be funny? Everyone told you at the time that there were reasons why these trips were done other than for the matches against the 2 teams played and pointed out there were commercial reasons for it being done. You were the one that kept on questioning it on grounds of just the standard of the games played and it was everyone else who told you to think more widely about what was going on with the trip.
Why would that be funny? Everyone told you at the time that there were reasons why these trips were done other than for the matches against the 2 teams played and pointed out there were commercial reasons for it being done. You were the one that kept on questioning it on grounds of just the standard of the games played and it was everyone else who told you to think more widely about what was going on with the trip.
Yes commercial reasons, as in maybe some new sponsorship deals etc.
No one thought we were there to attract a new owner / parties interested in purchasing a stake in the club.
Anyway I won't believe these rumours until Huw comes out and denies it in the Evening Post.
The conditions of any deal are obviously the crux of the matter for us supporters aren't they?....control....restrictions....safeguards...debt ceilings. Plus of course supporter representation. I think Shaky is spot on about future capital gain being the driver, as the only other 'investment' option is large dividend/interest payments that are a dressed up asset strip unless they are proportionate to growth.......although to be fair I can never see the logic of the capital gain, as why is there a gain unless there is an end game asset strip in the long run...?
I've no doubt that eventually there will be further funds raised..it's too big a business to ignore any serious interest (how many of you would turn down multi millions..much as I don't like the idea of it happening in this case), I just hope that somehow, sufficient influence is retained in the hands of supporters or there are tight restrictions in terms of protecting the interests of the club and its associated community, rather than the owners.
In my gut, I don't really like it though, even if it means we get 'bigger'. Not. One. Bit.
So I hope it is just fantasy.
edit - plus of course any restrictions or covenants would need to be in perpertuity or we might just become a bauble passed from hand to hand until we drew a Ridsdale, Hammam or Tan.
[Post edited 26 Sep 2014 12:54]
If there is any truth in it at all, the issue of 'who you sell to' and making sure you 'only sell to people that wouldn't harm the club' will start to rear its head. The issue is, however, that as much as you can try to make sure that you sell to owners who on the face of it have the club's interests at heart, you can't do much realistically to protect against who the club is sold on to in the future. It does then become something of a lottery.
As I've said before, there is little point in buying a football club if you can't make a gain from it and there's only a limited number of ways in which any owner could make a gain from our position, since the additional revenue streams will only move to a different ball park if we moved up significantly, and that's just a huge risk for any prospective new owners. I can't see how we could be bought with a view to becoming a top 4 club - there are too may in the way, and I can't see how income streams could be significantly improved without that happening. Possibly someone could take us to the level of an Everton type club - pretty much assured of top 8 each year with Europa etc, but without that lasting for years, it's difficult to see how our commercial streams would increase to the extent needed to make serious money.
I guess that the only 'attraction' could be on naming rights to the stadium etc - that may be worth a bit now, but a company / investors could just buy naming rights without buying the club.
Yes commercial reasons, as in maybe some new sponsorship deals etc.
No one thought we were there to attract a new owner / parties interested in purchasing a stake in the club.
Anyway I won't believe these rumours until Huw comes out and denies it in the Evening Post.
I don't know who this is supposed to be (if there is indeed any truth in it) but there were rumours as I said about 6 months or so ago (probably longer than that now actually). So I don't think that the trip was for the purposes of 'attracting' these people - if it's the same ones, they were interested before the trip happened.
If there is any truth in it at all, the issue of 'who you sell to' and making sure you 'only sell to people that wouldn't harm the club' will start to rear its head. The issue is, however, that as much as you can try to make sure that you sell to owners who on the face of it have the club's interests at heart, you can't do much realistically to protect against who the club is sold on to in the future. It does then become something of a lottery.
As I've said before, there is little point in buying a football club if you can't make a gain from it and there's only a limited number of ways in which any owner could make a gain from our position, since the additional revenue streams will only move to a different ball park if we moved up significantly, and that's just a huge risk for any prospective new owners. I can't see how we could be bought with a view to becoming a top 4 club - there are too may in the way, and I can't see how income streams could be significantly improved without that happening. Possibly someone could take us to the level of an Everton type club - pretty much assured of top 8 each year with Europa etc, but without that lasting for years, it's difficult to see how our commercial streams would increase to the extent needed to make serious money.
I guess that the only 'attraction' could be on naming rights to the stadium etc - that may be worth a bit now, but a company / investors could just buy naming rights without buying the club.
I don't see it either. Talking of Everton, Kenwright has been trying to sell unsuccessfully for years hasn't he? So our max out position is presumably not an attractive ownersip proposition in terms of rewards from ownership. Then unless they just want a premier league toy, like the sheiks and russiogarchs - and why would they want us when there are better toys available - it would seem that any motives would be dubious at best?
I don't know who this is supposed to be (if there is indeed any truth in it) but there were rumours as I said about 6 months or so ago (probably longer than that now actually). So I don't think that the trip was for the purposes of 'attracting' these people - if it's the same ones, they were interested before the trip happened.
Fair enough.
We can argue about it all day but it's out of our hands.
It's all down to whether Huw and co want to spend the rest of their lives living in extreme luxury or stay at their current (and still well above average) level of wealth.
I don't see it either. Talking of Everton, Kenwright has been trying to sell unsuccessfully for years hasn't he? So our max out position is presumably not an attractive ownersip proposition in terms of rewards from ownership. Then unless they just want a premier league toy, like the sheiks and russiogarchs - and why would they want us when there are better toys available - it would seem that any motives would be dubious at best?
I wasn't aware that Everton had been for sale, but one key difference is that not only would any prospective buyer have to buy the shares in the first place but they would then be expected to immediately finance the construction of the maybe 50,000+ capacity stadium they have their hearts set on.
What a bull thread this is,little old Swansea City with few material assets to speak being courted by some unknown Americans with a view to purchase for mega millions,why? Most of our share holders (Trust ?) must be holding their breath in anticipation of future riches beyond their wildest dreams.It just will not and isn't going to happen. Villa are for sale and have been for months,no buyers and a far far bigger club than we will ever be and in addition have substantive assets.
What a bull thread this is,little old Swansea City with few material assets to speak being courted by some unknown Americans with a view to purchase for mega millions,why? Most of our share holders (Trust ?) must be holding their breath in anticipation of future riches beyond their wildest dreams.It just will not and isn't going to happen. Villa are for sale and have been for months,no buyers and a far far bigger club than we will ever be and in addition have substantive assets.
Villa also have a crumbling stadium, don't they?
The simple truth is we are near the top of a massive liquidity fueled bull market top, and any manner of wacky investments are not only possible but should be expected as a matter of routine.
What a bull thread this is,little old Swansea City with few material assets to speak being courted by some unknown Americans with a view to purchase for mega millions,why? Most of our share holders (Trust ?) must be holding their breath in anticipation of future riches beyond their wildest dreams.It just will not and isn't going to happen. Villa are for sale and have been for months,no buyers and a far far bigger club than we will ever be and in addition have substantive assets.
Aston Villa have a net debt of £189m (as of 2013, and they've lost huge chunks since).
What a bull thread this is,little old Swansea City with few material assets to speak being courted by some unknown Americans with a view to purchase for mega millions,why? Most of our share holders (Trust ?) must be holding their breath in anticipation of future riches beyond their wildest dreams.It just will not and isn't going to happen. Villa are for sale and have been for months,no buyers and a far far bigger club than we will ever be and in addition have substantive assets.
So you don't see the difference between a club with no debt and with plenty of opportunity and a club that is the best part of £200m in debt and in reality no better than Swansea on the pitch. Jesus f*cking wept
I wasn't aware that Everton had been for sale, but one key difference is that not only would any prospective buyer have to buy the shares in the first place but they would then be expected to immediately finance the construction of the maybe 50,000+ capacity stadium they have their hearts set on.
And that is big bucks.
It's been widely accepted that Everton have been 'for sale' for many years.
Funnily enough though, there's always quite a lot of speculation about who actually owns them. Kenwright certainly has a stake, although apparently not as high as it used to be through his True Blue company.
Robert Earl is also a major shareholder (the original owner of Hard Rock until he sold it to Rank and the founder of Planet Hollywood) and there have been many rumours over the years that there is a substantial holding by Philip Green (of Arcadia fame).
Substantial financial might right there and although there have been rumours of Indian and Qatari interest I think that it's the stadium which is the sticking point (or it was in the past - don't know whether this is still the case).
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