QPR return to action as the form side in the Championship, in the play-off places for the first time in nearly three years, but the forthcoming fixtures are an interesting acid test of this wave of optimism, starting with a difficult Millwall assignment tomorrow.

QPR (4-3-2 WWWDDW 6th) v Millwall (4-2-3 DDWDLW 8th)

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Well, we certainly went into this international break in a better mood than the last one.

QPR in the play-off places for the first time since December 2022, four home games without loss, best start in six years, unbeaten in six, and with more points over that period than any other team – including Frank Lampard’s free-scoring Coventry and Ipswich Town whose brave battle against all the odds saw Kieran McKenna awarded manager of the month. That debacle at whatever we call the “Ricoh Arena” these days feels oh so far away at the moment.

Frankly, the way I felt after that Coventry game, I’m quite happy to park any and all questions about this team, set up, style, manager, where we can go this season, what constitutes success, how it’s been achieved and so on and on and on in favour of just standing there at Bristol City last week and enjoying myself. But, these previews don’t write themselves…

You would think a fanbase of a club with our recent history would have learned to be a bit more like that in general, and a little less bi-polar about the team’s relative ups and downs.

We’ve talked before about not only the team’s propensity to chuck in a 5-0/6-0/7-1 defeat every now and again, but also to embark on long losing runs – often just when you think they’ve got it cracked. Last season a summer of optimism have way to one win from the first 16 league games and a winless run of 13, later on another winless run of seven. Marti Cifuentes inherited a winless run of 12 the season before, and quickly clocked up another of eight. In 2022/23 QPR won two of 28 games, which included winless runs of six, seven and 13 games respectively. In Mark Warburton’s last season – a top half finish – there were winless runs of five, five again and six. At one point we won two of 15. There were winless streaks of seven and ten the previous season, five and seven in his first season, and Steve McClaren infamously won one of 15 games in his only season in charge. Ian Holloway had three separate six-game losing streaks, and Jimmy Floyd-Hasselbaink started life here winning none of his first eight.

At these times it feels like everything is wrong with the world, the team may never win again and League One beckons. The bed wetter’s switchboard fields calls through the night.

QPR are, however, equally prone to going on quite good sequences of results. Even last season, after that dire start of two wins in 17 games, the form was so good through the winter (eight wins, four draws, one loss) that we were within three points of the play-off places after beating Blackburn at home and there were genuine discussions about whether a push would be possible. Mick Beale infamously won eight and drew two of 11 through the autumn and had the team top of the Championship in this week three years ago. Warbs Warburton won 15 of the last 21 in 2020/21 and had us fourth and within spitting distance of second after a 4-0 home shellacking of Reading the following January. We entered the first lockdown on the back of a 3-1 win at Preston that had the play-offs feeling like a distinct possibility for a side that had all of the bottom five to play in their remaining seven matches. Schteve McClaren, after his own nightmare start, beat Ipswich, Sheff Wed and Villa back-to-back to revive the side, then a 3-2 home win against Brentford, and another three in a row including a first ever win at Nottingham Forest which had the top six in reach. Even Jimmy Flloyd Hasselbaink, having beasted the squad to within an inch of its life through pre-season, won three and drew one of the first six leading to a genuine question at that fans forum about how he would plan and recruit for a Premier League campaign.

Of course, a 6-0 loss to Newcastle lurked just around the corner, as the collapse to one win in 19 league games and home losses to Rotherham and Bolton did for Schteve, as the lockdown disaster did for Warbs, as the Wolves/Rangers farce did for Honest Mick, as the spring run of seven without a win did for Marti… twas ever thus, and seemingly ever shall be.

It’s why one of our favourite sayings is things are never as good, or as bad, as they seem at the time. This a team, remember, that has finished 12th, 18th, 16th, 19th, 13th, 9th, 11th, 20th, 18th and 15th over the last decade. You’d never know it from the way we react as a fanbase – more online than in person, to be fair, and LFW more guilty than most – but this is a club that has spent ten years, ten permanent managers, 125 different signings and God knows how much money, moving between 9th and 20th, and mostly between 13th and 19th.

In this next blow-your-hair-back blast of Championship action, before that pivotal November round of international friendlies and qualifiers against Latvia, I guess we’re looking for signs this QPR team can be the real deal. And by real deal I am literally talking about a team capable of finishing above the dotted line between top half and bottom half, not the one drawn between sixth and seventh above which we currently reside.

Everybody always sucks their teeth when the fixtures come out and draws conclusions like “tough Christmas” or “don’t like the look of that Easter” and “we don’t want to be needing many points from that last six games”. At the moment games that were considered almost write offs for a team like us when the fixtures came out (Sheff Utd and Southampton A, for example) are well in play. In the end, everybody plays everybody twice. That said, our start did look kind, particularly at home, and lo we’ve made our best start in six years and are unbeaten at Loftus Road. The first 12 games sat in stark contrast to the second 12. We didn’t have a parachute payment team on our list until November, then we have three in a week.

That QPR might start quite well, and Julien Stephan have a rather kind introduction to Championship life, has largely played out (not you, Coventry). We’ll find out a lot more about our team in the next few weeks, starting tomorrow with a Millwall side that has been ropey at home but is currently one of three sides unbeaten away. With a 3-0 walloping of West Brom to send them into the break and players coming back from injury the Lions are starting to show why some (okay, us) had them as dark horses this season. Alex Neil is an eye-rolling opponent – not this guy, again – and his teams are absolute bastards in the dark arts (more accurately described as cheating), particularly when leading away from home in the final half hour of games. But he’s tactically astute, his sides are always meticulously prepared and researched, and Millwall are a bloody good outfit. This will be a stiff examination. We’ve then got another double-away three game week spanning half the country – Swansea on Wednesday, Derby on Saturday.

This is the pattern for the next few weeks. Good teams and/or logistical challenges. Parachute payments galore, often faced in three-game weeks. The way we’re playing, and the way they’re playing, you’d fancy us at Sheffield United – but would you fancy us there having played Southampton 72 hours prior and Ipswich just before that? Likewise, Blackburn and Norwich away, eminently winnable. But are they eminently winnable when you’re playing them Wednesday-Saturday and effectively trapping your team in a bus on the M6 and the A11 Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday?

The things that stand well in our favour are, firstly, the strikers. Only Warbs’ team of those mentioned above had anything like the attack we’ve got now – Eze, BOS and Chair behind Wells and Hugill should really have done a lot more, and I’d never excuse the lockdown performances, except to say the defence was Leistner and Lynch in front of Joe Lumley. My God, last season’s slog with Frey, Celar, Lloyd and Kolli as the options is a distant memory compared to Kone and Burrell backed by Frey and Kolli. We’ve got one forward I suspect half the teams in the country are currently watching, partnered by another who looks like a proper Jamie Mackie-like lower league steal to me. They give you a chance, however badly you play. Kone needs half a sniff and nothing more, Burrell is Rick & Morty’s Scary Terry, descending through levels of sleeping defenders nightmares to find them.

And, secondly, the depth to the squad now. Time was the merest hint that Ilias Chair and Kwame Poku are back fit would have seen them thrust straight back into the team and hailed as the great white hopes for Saturday. Now, we don’t need to. Those positions are covered by Koki Saito, Harvey Vale and Paul Smyth in good form, and Karamoko Dembele who’s having a tougher time but still turned the Sheff Wed game back in our favour. No need to rush and risk, no need to run the squad on take off power, no need to pick the same team three times in a week. Hopefully, no mid- to late-season injury crisis as a result. We’ll find out how good some of these players really are between now and Boxing Day, but our bench for this weekend last year was Walsh, Clarke-Salter, Morgan, Santos, Andersen, Smyth, Saito, Celar and Bennie and I don’t think it’ll look like that tomorrow.

Let’s see. We’ve got excited before. Dave McIntyre often talks about the value of surprise, and what happens when oppo scouting reports start landing on desks and, for instance, teams start closing down renaissance man Nicolas Madsen in the middle of midfield. What happens when news of Rangers' four-four-fcking-two starts spreading through video review and preparation meetings around the league?

Tomorrow’s a very tough test, against a team with Steve Gallen as director of football who will know us inside and out, back to front.

Still, these are first world problems, versus what we were facing a month ago.

Links >>> Wilson settles cliffhanger – History >>> The death of Pep-ball – Column >>> Possession, nine tenths of the problem – Analysis >>> Ghost of Coventry past – Referee >>> Millwall official website >>> South London Press — Local Paper >>> News at Den — Blog >>> North Stand Banter — Forum >>> News Shopper — Local Paper

Below the fold

Team News: After injury-interrupted starts to the season for both clubs, we may have a sold-out London derby to return to here where both teams are only missing their goalkeepers. That’s more of a problem for Millwall, for whom Fulham loanee Steen Benda is proving no kind of replacement for the excellent Lukas Jensen, than QPR, where Paul Nardi and Joe Walsh are much of a muchness.

QPR have everybody back in full training, including Kwame Poku who hasn’t played since the opening day, Ilias Chair who was last seen on August 16, and Jake Calrke-Salter who made just 14 appearances last season and the last of those was January 11. Given the lack of reserve action for any of that trio – JCS infamously lasted just 11 minutes of his comeback in the development squad – I wouldn’t be expecting to see any starts, but given the form and depth of the team at the moment there’s fortunately no need. The choices are good ones for a manager. It’s whether, and how, you bring Mbengue back from his suspension with Steve Cook deputising well, which two of in form Smyth, Vale, Saito and Kolli get the nod wide of the attack, or whether you keep faith with Dembele. Rumarn Burrell flew all the way to the Caribbean for zero minutes with Jamaica this break (cheers, Schteve) so it’ll be interesting to see what role he plays in this three-game week.

Millwall’s headline grab in the summer was Luton winger Alfie Doughty coming back to the club he supports in an eye-catching move. Still only 25 that felt like a real coup, but much like our own Poku capture he did his hamstring in game two against Middlesbrough and hasn’t been seen since. All Millwall’s outfield injuries have allegedly cleaned up for this one and they’ll pick from a fully fit team for the first time this season (bar the keeper).

Elsewhere: It’s been a season preview-defying start to the Mercantile Credit Trophy early on, and we’ll get a good indication of whether that’s likely to continue or the onset of winter and regular three game weeks will redress the balance in favour of the bigger squads and deeper pockets with the Friday night fixture between Middlesbrough and Ipswich.

Having tipped Boro for the top six season after season I finally lost patience with them this summer after the appointment of Rob Edwards post-Luton disaster, and the likely sale of Hayden Hackney to the Tractor Boys. Hackney remains in situ, forming arguably the Championship’s best CM combo with Aidan Morris, and Boro have lost only once in second spot, while Ipswich, who we tipped for the title by a street, languish in ninth. Prior to the internationals, however, Boro drew two and lost one, while Town have won three of their last four and Kieran McKenna’s brave fight against all the odds there saw him named divisional manager of the month ahead of our own Julien Stephan.

It's a real mix of surprise packages and teams that need to get their fingers out in the Saturday fixtures.

Oxford aren’t surprising anybody, but Derby for their summer rebuild and outlay might have reasonably expected more than one win so far. If their old charge Gary Rowett does for them this weekend when does pressure start to build on John Eustace who was given everything he wanted this summer? Likewise Will Still and Southampton, who we had second on the grounds that the worst striker in their vast collection would be the best in most other Championship sides. Can they really afford to have Will Smallbone kicking around on loan at Millwall with his new hair? One win from six and 17th in the league with that squad and resource says not. Again, very interesting what becomes of Jake Humphrey’s High Performance Podcast regular Will Still if they get done at home by Swanselona.

The traditional kick off slots includes Coventry, who are everything everybody thought they were going to be unbeaten in nine with a whopping 27 goals scored already, hosting Blackburn who are, well, who are everything everybody though they were going to be, fourth bottom with two wins from eight.

But they also include Sheffield United, and I defy anybody to say they saw this coming – bottom of the league with just three points, Chris Wilder’s third coming moving the needle only to the tune of one hard fought away win at Oxford, four goals scored in ten games. They desperately need a home win against Watford, who have quickly scrubbed out any vague pre-season optimism by replacing the manager already (Javi Gracia, again, who would have thought). You’d have got long odds on the Blades being the worst team in Sheffield this year, but with HMRC now serving the Owls with a winding up order that’s unlikely to be the case much longer with admin and a 12-point deduction both a certainty and the least of their worries ahead of a trip to Charlton.

There’s strong unrest too at Norwich. Ben Knapper’s revolution has had one false start with great white hope Johannes Hoff Thorup, now without a job, and the expensive poaching of Liam Manning from Bristol City has so far produced just two wins, five home defeats from five, and a first derby defeat to Ipswich in 20-odd years. In “football without fans is nothing” news the club’s new American owner has chosen this moment to tell 3,000 season ticket holders they will be forcibly moved from their seats to make way for corporate hospitality and a “fan park” which will actually reduce the ground’s capacity overall. Quite the time for the visit to Carrow Road of… Bristol City.

Stoke, like Boro, went off at a lick to much surprise and amazement, but are also now four without a win with three draws in a row. They’ve got ever unpredictable Wrexham at home this weekend. Birmingham should start coming back towards the par many expected with a home gimme against Hull, but it’ll be interesting to see if Preston Knob End’s unlikely positive start continues at West Brom.

In further “football without fans is nothing” news, Portsmouth’s Saturday afternoon game at Leicester has been moved to a 19.45 kick off (because who doesn’t want to watch Leicester v Portsmouth at 19.45 on a Saturday night?). There is a train back afterwards, if you can get back to the station by 21.56 and don’t mind changing at St Pancras, Brighton, and arriving at 08.26 on Sunday morning.

Referee: Durham’s Adam Herczeg is one of the EFL’s newest officials and was in charge of Rangers most recently for the 7-1 debacle at Coventry. Not that it had much to do with him, but hopefully no repeat here… Details.

Form

- Weekends are more fun under Julien Stéphan. Last season QPR won just four of their 28 Saturday fixtures. This season they’ve already won four of the eight played.

- 15 points from nine games played is QPR’s best total at this stage for six seasons. The R’s have conceded just four times in the six games since the debacle at Coventry.

- It’s QPR’s first unbeaten September since 2013 when Steve McClaren was managing the team for Harry Redknapp and the team went 11 unbeaten in the league to start the season with a run of eight clean sheets.

- With 41.6% of the possession, it’s the eighth QPR win in a row where the R’s have succeeded while having less of the ball than their opponent.

- QPR finished the weekend before the international break in the top six of the Championship after a 2-1 win at Bristol City. It’s the first time they’ve got to the end of a weekend in the play-off places since December 2022, when Neil Critchley won his first match in charge at Preston (and it was all plain sailing from there).

- Similarly, Millwall have 14 points which is their best total at this stage of a season for five years.

- QPR are unbeaten in four games at Loftus Road so far, winning two. It took them 12 attempts to win one at this ground last season, and it wasn’t until game 13 on December 11 that they recorded a second victory. They ended up winning only seven home games in total, same as bottom placed Cardiff and fewer than relegated Luton and Plymouth. In 2023/24 they started without a win in the first eight home games, and didn’t win two until game ten.

- Millwall have been weirdly ropey at home this season, with Wrexham (2-0), Boro (3-0) and Coventry (4-0) all taking comfortable wins away from Lettum All Come Daghn To The Den. More pertinent to this weekend, however, the Lions are one of three Championship teams still unbeaten away (W2 D2) and have come from behind to draw their last three road trips 1-1 in league and cup at Charlton, Palace and Swansea. The Lions last went through their first five away games of a season unbeaten in 2015-16 in League One.

- Both QPR goals at Bristol City were scored from wide deliveries, but Rangers are bottom of the Championship for goals scored from crosses so far.

- QPR recovered four points from losing positions in the week before the international break – the win at Bristol was their first having trailed in a game since Preston on Easter Monday, 13 games prior. The last time they won from behind before that was the corresponding fixture with Preston at Loftus Road on December 21.

- Michael Frey top scored for QPR last season with nine in all comps. Richard Kone has four to his name already in eight appearances. Paul Smyth has scored two goals in his last four appearances, as many as he’d managed in his prior 61 apps for Rangers in all comps.

- Much hype about the prospects of Millwall striker Mihailo Ivanovic after a strong end to last season, but he’s yet to net in seven starts and two sub apps (gulp) and the top scorers here are Ryan Leonard with two in the League Cup and Camiel Neghli with two in the league.

- Free-scoring league leaders Coventry have won three and drawn three of their last six. Plucky Ipswich have three wins, two draws and a loss for which Kieran McKenna was awarded manager of the month. No team in the league has won as many points as QPR’s 14 (W4 D2) over the last six matches.

- Only Coventry (18) have won more Championship games than Millwall (15) in 2025.

- Only Stoke’s incredible Viktor Johansson (80.7%) has a higher save percentage so far this season than Paul Nardi (76.9%). This is where percentages fall down though – Nardi has played half as many minutes and made ten saves to Johansson’s 25. Stoke’s stopper has already saved his team from 3.4 goals on the xG prevented scale (top of the league), Nardi has 0.7 which drops him back to 12th, so they’re largely saves he should have made. Still, a big turnaround on last season where he figured near the bottom of these lists despite a reputation as a shot stopper.

- Nicolas Madsen is top of the QPR squad for ball recoveries and chances created. He’s also won more ground duels than any other QPR player and is third behind Varane and Cook for aerial duels won.

- QPR have only won two of their last eight league games against Millwall (D2 L4), though they have only lost one of their last 13 against them at home (W5 D7). Wawll have picked up five points on their last four league visits to Loftus Road (W1 D2 L1), as many as in their previous nine trips (D5 L4).

- All of QPR’s goals so far have been scored by a player aged under 30. The last time we got this far into a season without a 30+ scoring a goal was 2019/20 when Geoff Cameron and Marc Pugh both netted against Charlton on December 21.

Prediction

In our Prediction League for 2025/26 we’ll once again be handing out prizes for being top at Christmas and overall winner from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here. QPR_Hibs won last season’s Prediction League at a canter and is lending his thoughts to this year’s previews – a new leader of this year’s table with Enfieldargh sneaking ahead of Ned_Kennedys with his Bristol City prediction...

“I’m currently on my summer holiday in Rhodes which means that I’m sending Clive this prediction thing (and the following two) during the International break, so they’ll probably be even more wildly inaccurate than usual.

“It also means that I’ll miss the home game against Millwall, though I hope to be able to watch it in a local sports bar. In the past I have mostly been able to arrange my holidays so that I don’t miss home games. In fact, the last one I remember missing due to my own bad planning was in March 2012 – the small matter of QPR 3 Liverpool 2 when, as I’m sure everyone knows, QPR scored three times in the last 13 minutes to win the game with an incredible turnaround. Probably one of the best comebacks that I’ve never seen.

“The Millwall game is already our third home 12.30 kick off this season and, unusually, we have won the previous two. We are also on a good unbeaten run, so I don’t expect too many unenforced changes from the head coach. Poku and Chair may both be back in contention for spots on the bench, but that would surely mean leaving out one (or two) of Vale, Dembele, Saito or Smyth from the squad entirely. Sometimes nine substitutes just doesn’t seem enough!

“Steve Cook has been very good in central defence since he has come back into the team, and he may get the nod to continue with either Mbengue or Morrison having to sit out. Jake Clarke-Salter is allegedly not injured and may be able to play 11 minutes. The much improved Madsen and Varane partnership will control the midfield whilst Kone and Burrell start upfront and score one goal each as Rangers win 2-0.”

QPR_Hibs Prediction: QPR 2 Millwall 0. Scorer – Richard Kone

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 1 Millwall 1. Scorer – Richard Kone

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Pictures - Ian Randall Photography

hillsy1302 added 23:09 - Oct 17 4-3-2? Assume Mbenge will play as a sweeper and get sent off early?
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TacticalR added 12:20 - Oct 18 Thanks for your preview. A fair point that, for all our long losing streaks, we must have had long winning streaks, otherwise we would have been relegated by now. Although our current form is better than Millwall's, this is still a hard one to call because of Millwall's away form.
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