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The Countdown begins. 23:28 - Nov 10 with 400869 viewspikeypaul



https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20190329T23&p0=1336&msg=Democr

1:19 pm today was the exact mid point from when the result that the Great British public had decided to leave the EU and the time 11pm March 29th 2019 that Democracy will be delivered.

Happy days.
[Post edited 25 Jun 17:01]

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The Countdown begins. on 23:42 - Jul 4 with 1319 viewsmajorraglan

Jaguar have now released a statement expressing concern about a no deal scenario. Three major companies have now made public statements, wonder how this will impact on government thinking? Will Teresa May move towards the Brexiteers or will she move towards the Remainers positions. These are huge numbers, investment running in the billions and tens of thousands of jobs. The stakes are high.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44719656
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The Countdown begins. on 07:34 - Jul 5 with 1264 viewspikeypaul

BMW statement by Ralf Speth the GERMAN car executive it says it all and another non story carefully orchestrated by the remoaners and the desperate German run EU who are frightened shitless their self serving project is going down the pan.

267 AFLI

SIUYRL
[Post edited 5 Jul 7:51]

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Poll: Next major war involving UK against a super power ?

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The Countdown begins. on 09:33 - Jul 5 with 1242 viewspeenemunde

I wonder why the British government are so desperate for Farage not to meet president Trump, when he visits the UK.

What do the British government fear ?.
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The Countdown begins. on 10:22 - Jul 5 with 1218 viewslonglostjack

The Countdown begins. on 09:33 - Jul 5 by peenemunde

I wonder why the British government are so desperate for Farage not to meet president Trump, when he visits the UK.

What do the British government fear ?.


That they’ll be finalising plans to seek asylum in Russia before the law catches up with them.
[Post edited 5 Jul 10:24]

Poll: Who would you rather win? England or Sweden?

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The Countdown begins. on 10:32 - Jul 5 with 1202 viewscwm02

The Countdown begins. on 23:42 - Jul 4 by majorraglan

Jaguar have now released a statement expressing concern about a no deal scenario. Three major companies have now made public statements, wonder how this will impact on government thinking? Will Teresa May move towards the Brexiteers or will she move towards the Remainers positions. These are huge numbers, investment running in the billions and tens of thousands of jobs. The stakes are high.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44719656


The EU has helped many UK companies relocate to other European countries without them even thinking about job losses. https://janetteheffernan.blogspot.com/2016/06/brexit-list-of-uk-companies-no-lon

EU assisted Ford in moving their Transit production from the UK to Turkey in 2013 or the time Airbus threatened to leave the UK if it didn't join the Euro. I guess they forgot to leave as they are still here

Brexit isn't threatening anything! The uncertainty created by the EU and our inept government is what he's worried about and rightly so.
[Post edited 5 Jul 10:34]
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The Countdown begins. on 10:42 - Jul 5 with 1185 viewspeenemunde

The Countdown begins. on 10:22 - Jul 5 by longlostjack

That they’ll be finalising plans to seek asylum in Russia before the law catches up with them.
[Post edited 5 Jul 10:24]


Maybe they’ll be in the same prison as Blair.
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The Countdown begins. on 10:55 - Jul 5 with 1157 viewsBatterseajack

The Countdown begins. on 07:34 - Jul 5 by pikeypaul

BMW statement by Ralf Speth the GERMAN car executive it says it all and another non story carefully orchestrated by the remoaners and the desperate German run EU who are frightened shitless their self serving project is going down the pan.

267 AFLI

SIUYRL
[Post edited 5 Jul 7:51]


So Ralph Speth is a secret operative for the EU? Is that what your saying?
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The Countdown begins. on 11:11 - Jul 5 with 1153 viewspeenemunde

The Countdown begins. on 10:55 - Jul 5 by Batterseajack

So Ralph Speth is a secret operative for the EU? Is that what your saying?


No that’s not what he said. Read it again.
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The Countdown begins. on 11:16 - Jul 5 with 1146 viewsBatterseajack

The Countdown begins. on 11:11 - Jul 5 by peenemunde

No that’s not what he said. Read it again.


Well he seems to suggest that Ralphs warnings about the negative affects on his business from the UK exiting the customs union is total baloney, because he is GERMAN and is worried that the UK's departure will kill off the EU (which is apparently German run) so he's coming out with these silly threats....as if he was a secret EU operative planted in the UK car building industry.
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The Countdown begins. on 12:59 - Jul 5 with 1122 viewsJango

The Countdown begins. on 11:16 - Jul 5 by Batterseajack

Well he seems to suggest that Ralphs warnings about the negative affects on his business from the UK exiting the customs union is total baloney, because he is GERMAN and is worried that the UK's departure will kill off the EU (which is apparently German run) so he's coming out with these silly threats....as if he was a secret EU operative planted in the UK car building industry.


It’s been revealed that Barak Obama was persuaded to something very similar. Are you saying he’s a secret EU operative?
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The Countdown begins. on 13:47 - Jul 5 with 1111 viewspikeypaul

Jango,you are wasting your time it’s obvious to all that these pro EU spokesmen for companies like BMW and Airbus who have been taking totally illegal payments from the EU for years are being called into repay the “favours” they have recived in the past.
The EU are shitting it they may have over played their hand and a no deal hard Brexit is going to be delivered,let’s hope so.
Anyway time to sit back have a cool lager and wait for the glorious day next March 29th.

267 AFLI

SIUYRL

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Poll: Next major war involving UK against a super power ?

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The Countdown begins. on 14:03 - Jul 5 with 1096 viewsBatterseajack

The Countdown begins. on 12:59 - Jul 5 by Jango

It’s been revealed that Barak Obama was persuaded to something very similar. Are you saying he’s a secret EU operative?


No, i happen to believe that both Obama and Ralf Speth are just being honest. I'm not the one claiming a conspiracy here.
[Post edited 5 Jul 14:04]
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The Countdown begins. on 14:05 - Jul 5 with 1091 viewsBatterseajack

The Countdown begins. on 13:47 - Jul 5 by pikeypaul

Jango,you are wasting your time it’s obvious to all that these pro EU spokesmen for companies like BMW and Airbus who have been taking totally illegal payments from the EU for years are being called into repay the “favours” they have recived in the past.
The EU are shitting it they may have over played their hand and a no deal hard Brexit is going to be delivered,let’s hope so.
Anyway time to sit back have a cool lager and wait for the glorious day next March 29th.

267 AFLI

SIUYRL


You're a fruit loop
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The Countdown begins. on 14:15 - Jul 5 with 1087 viewspeenemunde

The Countdown begins. on 14:03 - Jul 5 by Batterseajack

No, i happen to believe that both Obama and Ralf Speth are just being honest. I'm not the one claiming a conspiracy here.
[Post edited 5 Jul 14:04]


He wasn’t being honest, he was asked by Cameron to say it.
Nothing honest about that.
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The Countdown begins. on 14:18 - Jul 5 with 1083 viewsBatterseajack

The Countdown begins. on 14:15 - Jul 5 by peenemunde

He wasn’t being honest, he was asked by Cameron to say it.
Nothing honest about that.


He was asked by Cameron to comment on Brexit, but not asked to Lie. What evidence do you have that it was a lie and why would the leader of the US lie for Cameron?
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The Countdown begins. on 14:22 - Jul 5 with 1082 viewsHighjack

The Countdown begins. on 14:18 - Jul 5 by Batterseajack

He was asked by Cameron to comment on Brexit, but not asked to Lie. What evidence do you have that it was a lie and why would the leader of the US lie for Cameron?


Obama was coming to the end of his presidential term, he knew he’d be gone before brexit happened. Therefore it was insincere of him at best to announce the foreign policy of a future administration.

The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
Poll: After dumping Leanne, who is Trampie’s latest crush?

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The Countdown begins. on 14:36 - Jul 5 with 1072 viewspeenemunde

The Countdown begins. on 14:18 - Jul 5 by Batterseajack

He was asked by Cameron to comment on Brexit, but not asked to Lie. What evidence do you have that it was a lie and why would the leader of the US lie for Cameron?


Now you are telling lies.
According to a White House adviser, Cameron asked to Obama to be pessimistic about Brexit.
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The Countdown begins. on 14:44 - Jul 5 with 1069 viewsLeonWasGod

The Countdown begins. on 14:36 - Jul 5 by peenemunde

Now you are telling lies.
According to a White House adviser, Cameron asked to Obama to be pessimistic about Brexit.


No, you’re twisting it. According to the aide, they were all pessimistic in the meeting. So Cameron suggested Obama should repeat it publically.
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The Countdown begins. on 14:50 - Jul 5 with 1060 viewsBatterseajack

The Countdown begins. on 14:36 - Jul 5 by peenemunde

Now you are telling lies.
According to a White House adviser, Cameron asked to Obama to be pessimistic about Brexit.


So you have no evidence then
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The Countdown begins. on 15:01 - Jul 5 with 1047 viewspeenemunde

The Countdown begins. on 14:44 - Jul 5 by LeonWasGod

No, you’re twisting it. According to the aide, they were all pessimistic in the meeting. So Cameron suggested Obama should repeat it publically.


So will May ask President Trump next week what he thinks about Brexit and ask him to repeat his views several times.
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The Countdown begins. on 15:47 - Jul 5 with 1024 viewsLeonWasGod

The Countdown begins. on 15:01 - Jul 5 by peenemunde

So will May ask President Trump next week what he thinks about Brexit and ask him to repeat his views several times.


They’ve already done that, whem May visited in Jan 2017.

And when he gave an interview to Gove and the Times.

And when he was visiting his golf course in Scotland.

And in an interview for the FT in April 2017.
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The Countdown begins. on 15:56 - Jul 5 with 1020 viewspeenemunde

The Countdown begins. on 15:47 - Jul 5 by LeonWasGod

They’ve already done that, whem May visited in Jan 2017.

And when he gave an interview to Gove and the Times.

And when he was visiting his golf course in Scotland.

And in an interview for the FT in April 2017.


So hopefully he’ll say something, as he’s pro Brexit.
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The Countdown begins. on 19:12 - Jul 5 with 967 viewsJango

The Countdown begins. on 14:03 - Jul 5 by Batterseajack

No, i happen to believe that both Obama and Ralf Speth are just being honest. I'm not the one claiming a conspiracy here.
[Post edited 5 Jul 14:04]


Nothing honest about it whatsoever. It may have been what he believed might happen but he portrayed it as factual and only done so at the request of Cameron. It was a sneaky move as simple as that.
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The Countdown begins. on 22:11 - Jul 5 with 931 viewspikeypaul

The Countdown begins. on 19:12 - Jul 5 by Jango

Nothing honest about it whatsoever. It may have been what he believed might happen but he portrayed it as factual and only done so at the request of Cameron. It was a sneaky move as simple as that.


Of course it was but the remoaners are so bitter at losing they think all the under handed tactics pre and post referendum committed by the remain campaign are justified.

It’s very fecking sad but hey very soon they will have to stop their crying and accept democracy.

We have even had one of the w@nkers on here recently openly admit that
he thinks the GB 🇬🇧 should not be a democracy it tells us everything we need to know about them.

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The Countdown begins. on 23:52 - Jul 5 with 892 viewsKerouac

Evidence-based policy or fake news? Ten economic propositions made by Remain



Written by Briefings For Brexit

A senior private sector economist (who needs to remain anonymous for career reasons) examines ten widely believed facts about the economic impact of Brexit and finds all of them wide of the mark. In some cases they are hugely wrong


"The UK government is still apparently undecided about what kind of Brexit ‘end-state’ to pursue, a state of paralysis that in our view has much to do with the nature of ‘official’ opinion on some of the key economic questions posed by Brexit.
We believe much of the analysis behind official opinion on the economics of Brexit is flawed, often based on incorrect methodology or cherry-picked evidence. ‘Official’ estimates of key Brexit ‘costs’ are greatly exaggerated, in many cases by a factor of 5-10 compared to plausible numbers.


Proposition 1: the UK economy is hugely dependent on trade with the EU

Exports to the EU are about 43% of total UK exports, but this represents less than 10% of UK value-added.
Around nine-tenths of UK GDP is not generated by exports to the EU.[1]
The UK economy grew faster before we joined the EEC/EU. Even if one uses the USA as a benchmark, to control for changing global conditions, there is no indication that economic growth in the UK has improved through membership of the EU.



Proposition 2: EU membership has massively increased UK trade with the EU

The Treasury claims that EU membership has increased UK exports the EU by 80%.
This estimate looks greatly exaggerated, by a factor of 4-5.
The Treasury estimates are not consistent with historic UK trade data, and use a flawed application of ‘gravity model’ methodology based on an ‘EU effect’ averaged across all EU members:
If the numbers are re-run for the UK alone, Gudgin, Coutts & Gibson (2016) show the increase in UK trade from EU membership at a much lower 23%.
An unpublished Treasury paper from 2003 shows EU membership raised UK exports to the EU by just 7%.
Studies by Walsh (2008) and Dettmer (2014) struggle to find any statistically significant evidence of a positive effect of EU membership on services trade.



Proposition 3:  Outside the EU, UK exporters will face big barriers to trade with the EU


EU tariff barriers outside agriculture average just 3%.
If UK-EU trade moved to a ‘WTO basis’ around 35-40% of UK exports would face zero tariffs including important sectors such as pharmaceuticals, oil and  civil aircraft.
Only about 15% of UK exports would face a tariff of 10% or more[2].

Official sources emphasise non-tariff barriers (NTBs) but greatly exaggerate them. They are often claimed to be in the range of 20-25% of trade values but detailed work by Kee & Nicita (2017) estimate that the average tariff equivalent of NTBS facing UK exporters to the EU, weighted by imports, would be just 3.4%. A detailed study of post-Brexit NTBs for several sectors in the Netherlands found they might total around 1% of trade values.
 



Proposition 4: UK exports will collapse in a ‘WTO Brexit’

The Treasury claims UK exports to the EU would fall by 43% and total exports by 24% in a ‘WTO’ Brexit.
Estimates based on more realistic assumptions are far lower. Kee & Nicita estimated that the imposition of WTO tariffs would cut UK exports to the EU by only 2%. Even doubling or tripling this for the impact of NTBs would leave the estimated fall in UK exports to the EU at between one-tenth and one-seventh of the Treasury estimate.




Proposition 5: long-term economic losses from leaving the EU single market and customs union will be very large

The Treasury’s 2016 document and the more recent ‘cross-Whitehall briefing’ claimed UK GDP would fall by 8% in the long-run in the event of the UK leaving the EU and reverting to ‘WTO rules’. This estimate is probably 3-8 times too high.

Paul Krugman has recently shown that economic welfare losses from declining trade can be surprisingly modest. Even if we assume a rise in UK-EU trade barriers of 25% and a 50% drop in UK-EU trade, standard welfare economics gives a welfare loss for the UK of less than 1% of GDP.
Meanwhile, Ciuriak et al. (2017) used the same modelling approach as the ‘cross-Whitehall briefing’, and found that even in the most severe ‘WTO rules’ scenario, UK GDP only fell 2.5% in the long run – less than a third of the Treasury results. The LSE’s Centre for Economic Policy agree that tariff and non-tariff barriers on a WTO basis would have a small impact[3].
The reason for the difference is that the Treasury and others add on a series of highly negative assumptions (with weak evidential bases) to trade effects:
- No trade reorientation,
- sharp declines in productivity or FDI
- and even subtracting hypothetical future gains from future EU integration.




Proposition 6:  Outside the customs union, customs processes will be expensive and time consuming

In June, HMRC claimed the cost of running standard customs processes for UK-EU trade could total £20 billion – around 1% of UK GDP or 6% of the value of UK exports to the EU.
These figures are likely to be over-estimated by a factor of at least six and possibly 20 times.
They double count EU and UK costs,
use inflated estimates of rules of origin costs,
confuse estimates of costs of customs declarations per container with cost per consignment
and assume no behavioural change by businesses.

International evidence from Switzerland and the Netherlands suggests costs of customs processes in the range of 0.1-1% of GDP and evidence from UK firms importing from outside the EU suggests costs as low as 0.04% of the value of trade[4].

Claims that long customs delays will occur after Brexit also look exaggerated. EU states check as few as 1% of consignments arriving from outside the EU. There is not lots of testing of whether products conform to EU standards at the border. Most manufacturers outside the EU can self-certify their goods as EU-compliant, most checks happen beyond the border.





Proposition 7:  Outside the customs union and single market, complex supply chain industries will decline

It is argued that components criss-cross boundaries in modern UK-EU supply chains.
This is correct.
However, this phenomenon is not unique to the EU, or to customs unions.
A good example of this is the NAFTA trade agreement that covers the US, Canada and Mexico.
This is not a customs union and has border controls. Yet, as the FT noted recently, the NAFTA pact has spawned ‘integrated supply chains’ in which ‘components cross the world’s busiest border multiple times as they are transformed into finished goods’, especially in the auto industry.

This plus the evidence above on customs checks makes recent suggestions that the UK should continue to align fully with EU product standards to reduce border checks appear redundant – any ‘reduction’ will be minimal.




Proposition 8:  ‘Rules of origin’ costs are high, making free trade agreements inferior to a customs union

Rules of origin (ROO) costs relate to the administrative costs of proving products originate in the UK rather than in other countries and feature in free trade agreements. The IoD and HMRC claim they are high but their claims are exaggerated.
A WTO study for firms in North America and the EU suggests rules of origin costs are likely to be less than 1% of trade values.
Based on this, the HMRC estimate that ROO for the UK in a free trade deal with the EU would be up to £7bn is likely to be at least four times too high.




Proposition 9:  Free trade agreements won’t generate a significant rise in UK exports


European Commission estimates for the impact on the UK of the proposed EU-US TTIP deal suggested UK exports to the US could rise by about 20%.
Since the EU-Korea FTA came into force in 2011, UK exports to Korea have almost tripled[5].





Proposition 10:  The UK financial services sector is heavily reliant on ‘passporting’ for its revenues

In fact, the evidence suggests ‘passporting’ is of rather limited importance for UK financial institutions.
A report for Briefings for Brexit showed that measured trade barriers in services between the UK and EU had changed little since the early 2000s, despite the various EU directives that created passporting.

This should not be surprising because the great bulk of UK financial services output is wholesale and not much affected by EU membership. It is telling that announced job relocations by the UK financial sector so far have been a tiny fraction of the early lurid claims of mass movements."


[1] Author’s calculations based on OECD
[2] Author’s calculations based on WTO
[3] Dhingra, S., Huang, H., Ottaviano, G., Pessoa, J. P., Sampson, T., and van Reenan, J., (2017), The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: the Trade Effects. CEP Discussion Paper No 1478 April.
[4] See Briefings for Brexit
[5] Author’s calculation based on IMF Direction of Trade Statistics






SUCK IT UP LOSERS

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