| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote 16:48 - Feb 21 with 4945 views | Shaky |
Mark Carney: People are earning 3.5% less than we estimated before the EU referendum
Business Insider, 21st February, 2018
LONDON – Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Wednesday that real incomes are set to be 5% below pre-referendum forecasts by the end of this year.
Appearing before the Treasury Select Committee on Wednesday, Carney said that British incomes are currently 3.5% below where the central bank had forecast them to be prior to the June 2016 vote to leave the European Union.
Economists' forecasts have been ridiculed for their inaccuracy in many pro-Brexit circles but Carney said the figures were "to be expected" given the effects of the Brexit vote on the economy.
"We're in a transition period or a pre-transition period is perhaps a better way to put it," Carney told the Treasury Select Committee.
The pound sank to multi-year lows against both the euro and dollar in the wake of the vote, which has led to high inflation. Inflation rose rapidly after the vote and currently sits at 3%, well above the Bank of England's target of 2%.
Meanwhile, investment and wage growth have failed to keep pace. Wage data also out on Wednesday shows pay packets increased by 2.5% in January – meaning people are effectively seeing real wage declines of 0.5%.
The cumulative effect is British people have less money in their pockets than the Bank had expected them to have at this point in time.
Carney said the 5% lag at the end of the year is expected to be the peak in divergence from the Bank's pre-referendum forecasts. Inflation is predicted to ease and wage growth is expected to overtake inflation later this year.
Andy Haldane, the Bank of England's chief economist, told the Treasury Select Committee: "It is very likely average weekly earnings growth will nudge up to have a 3 in front of it [from next month]."
http://uk.businessinsider.com/mark-carney-brexit-wage-forecast-2018-2 |  |
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| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 22:36 - Feb 25 with 1461 views | PozuelosSideys |
| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 14:29 - Feb 25 by Shaky |
Germany had higher migration in the same period, and just look at how they performed. And that after suffering a much deeper recession than the UK 2012-13 following the introduction of Russia sanctions along with much of continuental Europe.
One thing, and one thing only, explains the piss poor performance of the UK over that period; misguided Tory austerity policies. [Post edited 25 Feb 2018 14:34]
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Germany, alongside many of the other EU countries is still benefiting from the huge printed money stimulus. Something which ended in the UK long ago. You also know that Germany also has the additional kicker of being attached to the Euro. While Germany benefits from the warped valuations from nation to nation, the likes of Greece and Italy tank. Germany isnt the best example to compare ourselves to here as i mentioned in my above posts. Germanys business environment is a lot more evenly spread over various sectors as well. The UK is highly reliant on FS and the City. Again, the Germans benefit significantly with the mis-priced Euro aiding their manufacturing industry for one.
Should add that your note about Germany having higher immigration rates than the UK is misleading, and a bit naughty Shakes. Their demographics are completely different to the UK. The UK population is rocketing with an exceptionally high population density. The Germans have the opposite problem and they effectively have to import people. See below
https://qz.com/394456/the-numbers-behind-germanys-demographic-nightmare/
This is the a big problem with the EU idea. One solution does not fit all. For everything. Its why the end game HAS to be a single EU nation state, despite what they may say.
Care to enlighten me to the technical side as to why you feel Tory policies alone are to blame? I suspect there is a element of that, but the UK culture, sector splits and our ever-increasing American style of work and social environment has its influences.
People talk a good game about being positive social, economic and corporate citizens, but when push comes to shove and they have to pay more or give up stuff, they dont want it. [Post edited 25 Feb 2018 23:06]
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| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 22:42 - Feb 25 with 1455 views | PozuelosSideys |
| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 14:19 - Feb 25 by Kilkennyjack |
Once EU migrants stop arriving to work for less, then the Tory scum will simply use their (supposed) new global trade deals to access cheap labour migration from other places in the world , like China and India.
They give not a damn for the working man.
Posh people who don’t even know the price of milk. |
That only becomes an issue if we continue to create more jobs than we can fill and become an even bigger state. If there are less jobs to fill, labor goes elsewhere and the markets even out potentially. Not necessarily a bad thing.
Although that depends on your outlook of the world. The world is finite, resources are finite, shareholders expect consistent returns and everyone expects increases and improvements to everything. That cant go on forever. Countries need to start being self-sustainable. People need to begin to accept this. | |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 12:10 - Feb 26 with 1404 views | Shaky |
| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 22:36 - Feb 25 by PozuelosSideys |
Germany, alongside many of the other EU countries is still benefiting from the huge printed money stimulus. Something which ended in the UK long ago. You also know that Germany also has the additional kicker of being attached to the Euro. While Germany benefits from the warped valuations from nation to nation, the likes of Greece and Italy tank. Germany isnt the best example to compare ourselves to here as i mentioned in my above posts. Germanys business environment is a lot more evenly spread over various sectors as well. The UK is highly reliant on FS and the City. Again, the Germans benefit significantly with the mis-priced Euro aiding their manufacturing industry for one.
Should add that your note about Germany having higher immigration rates than the UK is misleading, and a bit naughty Shakes. Their demographics are completely different to the UK. The UK population is rocketing with an exceptionally high population density. The Germans have the opposite problem and they effectively have to import people. See below
https://qz.com/394456/the-numbers-behind-germanys-demographic-nightmare/
This is the a big problem with the EU idea. One solution does not fit all. For everything. Its why the end game HAS to be a single EU nation state, despite what they may say.
Care to enlighten me to the technical side as to why you feel Tory policies alone are to blame? I suspect there is a element of that, but the UK culture, sector splits and our ever-increasing American style of work and social environment has its influences.
People talk a good game about being positive social, economic and corporate citizens, but when push comes to shove and they have to pay more or give up stuff, they dont want it. [Post edited 25 Feb 2018 23:06]
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Just on austerity, far too early fiscal retrenchment has put a dampner on the expansion and ensured that - especially the early and middle stages of - the recovery was subpar, exactly like the OECD warned in real time.
At the same time Osbourne's original targets for swinging the budget in to surplus and actually paying down debt have proved completely fanciful.
All this should come as a surprise only to those under the impression that running economies relies on the same principles as managing your personal finances. | |
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| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 12:16 - Feb 26 with 1399 views | Shaky |
. . . and here's the first thing I found on migration.
Note, I haven't looked at the underlying data in any detail, but at first glance the profiles of Germany and UK look virtually identical.
Heading:
Migration and migrant population statistics in EU-28
Foreign and foreign-born population in EU-28 (as of 1 January 2016)
souce: http://emn.ie/index.jsp?p=128&n=229 | |
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| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 19:06 - Feb 28 with 1316 views | PozuelosSideys |
| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 12:10 - Feb 26 by Shaky |
Just on austerity, far too early fiscal retrenchment has put a dampner on the expansion and ensured that - especially the early and middle stages of - the recovery was subpar, exactly like the OECD warned in real time.
At the same time Osbourne's original targets for swinging the budget in to surplus and actually paying down debt have proved completely fanciful.
All this should come as a surprise only to those under the impression that running economies relies on the same principles as managing your personal finances. |
The original solution was to have a shorter, far more aggressive round of "austerity". Instead, Osborne buckled and went for the longer, softer option. Its sort of working in that the deficit is narrowing, but nowhere near as well as hoped and was scenario planned. Its why im always utterly sceptical of any headline numbers any politician throws out in regards to finance or economics. it would always be preferable to see all the underlying methodologies, assumptions and variables to see the initial position, but us peasants will never get that option.
As you well know, you cant pay down debt while you still run a deficit. Deficit first, debt later. The alternative position of borrowing more to "invest" just runs up larger interest payments with the threats of increased rates and poorer yields on Government instruments.
Personal finance analogies are ok to an extent, but yep, its a super simplistic strawman approach. Fag packet stuff | |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 19:12 - Feb 28 with 1313 views | PozuelosSideys |
| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 12:16 - Feb 26 by Shaky |
. . . and here's the first thing I found on migration.
Note, I haven't looked at the underlying data in any detail, but at first glance the profiles of Germany and UK look virtually identical.
Heading:
Migration and migrant population statistics in EU-28
Foreign and foreign-born population in EU-28 (as of 1 January 2016)
souce: http://emn.ie/index.jsp?p=128&n=229 |
Where are you going with this? The trend data YoY would be of more interest. Your chart is a single year snapshot. Extrapolate that out and put some qualitative storyline behind the quants and it looks very different. But we know what that would say, people movement from the South and East to the North and West. Point is the demographics. Germany is in dire need of people, the UK less so. The density issue is also key. (see the link i posted up which shows Germanys position). The UK public is less safe here with minimal workers rights and regulation, the Germans look after their own first and foremost in this regards. Importing people into the UK stagnates wages. In Germany its a necessity to prop up the low birth rates and upward age shift in local demographic.
As an employee, id rather be in a Germans shoes. | |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 19:37 - Feb 28 with 1294 views | Shaky |
| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 19:06 - Feb 28 by PozuelosSideys |
The original solution was to have a shorter, far more aggressive round of "austerity". Instead, Osborne buckled and went for the longer, softer option. Its sort of working in that the deficit is narrowing, but nowhere near as well as hoped and was scenario planned. Its why im always utterly sceptical of any headline numbers any politician throws out in regards to finance or economics. it would always be preferable to see all the underlying methodologies, assumptions and variables to see the initial position, but us peasants will never get that option.
As you well know, you cant pay down debt while you still run a deficit. Deficit first, debt later. The alternative position of borrowing more to "invest" just runs up larger interest payments with the threats of increased rates and poorer yields on Government instruments.
Personal finance analogies are ok to an extent, but yep, its a super simplistic strawman approach. Fag packet stuff |
But the point in macro economics is not to pay down debt in absolute terms, but rather to pay down debt as a percentage of GDP (that being the tax/revenue base).
And given that government borrowing rates were very close to 0 for much of the last 7 years it was criminal stupidity not to take advantage of that. | |
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| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 19:42 - Feb 28 with 1293 views | Jango |
| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 12:23 - Feb 22 by Kilkennyjack |
Of course he has the evidence, he is an expert.
He is Governor of the Bank of England, appearing before the Treasury Select Committee.
Only the Bedwetter Brexiteers make stuff up. [Post edited 22 Feb 2018 12:24]
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Is this the same expert Mark Carney that has consistently complained about the Brexit vote. The same expert that had a panic interest rate cut that was completely unnecessary and helped push the pound down further than it would otherwise have gone. The same bloke who said before the Brexit vote took place there would be a sharp downturn in the economy? The blokes a clown and uses any statistic he can get his hands on to try and unsettle brexit. He doesn’t seem to mention the state of the wage growth before the referendum. [Post edited 28 Feb 2018 20:41]
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| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 19:59 - Feb 28 with 1280 views | Shaky |
| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 19:12 - Feb 28 by PozuelosSideys |
Where are you going with this? The trend data YoY would be of more interest. Your chart is a single year snapshot. Extrapolate that out and put some qualitative storyline behind the quants and it looks very different. But we know what that would say, people movement from the South and East to the North and West. Point is the demographics. Germany is in dire need of people, the UK less so. The density issue is also key. (see the link i posted up which shows Germanys position). The UK public is less safe here with minimal workers rights and regulation, the Germans look after their own first and foremost in this regards. Importing people into the UK stagnates wages. In Germany its a necessity to prop up the low birth rates and upward age shift in local demographic.
As an employee, id rather be in a Germans shoes. |
Looks to me like that chart is the cumulaitve total, not a single year.
Y-O-Y change would interesting, particularly since certainly '16 and to a much less extent '17 were huge years for Germany.
Are there substantial structural differences between the UK and Germany? Sure, but is seems to me these stats disprove the simple correlation between wage growth and inward mighration you initially asserted. | |
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| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 20:50 - Feb 28 with 1263 views | felixstowe_jack |
Has the increase in the Personnel tax allowance been factored in. It has goon up by 10% in the last two tax years. | |
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| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 22:36 - Mar 1 with 1208 views | PozuelosSideys |
| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 19:59 - Feb 28 by Shaky |
Looks to me like that chart is the cumulaitve total, not a single year.
Y-O-Y change would interesting, particularly since certainly '16 and to a much less extent '17 were huge years for Germany.
Are there substantial structural differences between the UK and Germany? Sure, but is seems to me these stats disprove the simple correlation between wage growth and inward mighration you initially asserted. |
On an actual basis though, Germany has far more heads given their higher population. If they dont keep importing people, then their economy will start to sag. If anything, they need net increases in the millions every couple of years. The UK needs are different due to birth rates etc. Dont underestimate population density either. I keep banging on about this because it makes a difference. Space, culture, language and particularly to infrastructure. As i mentioned elsewhere, Germany need another 90million or so people to hit the same density as England. Scary.
My aim wasnt to provide you with a simple correlation argument linking wage growth and migration. It was to provide another angle to your broad- brush Brexit assertion.
The German psyche is far more disciplined and methododical than ours im afraid (Assuming you are British) in most aspects of life.
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As for the Tory policy bit. Thinking about it, if as you correctly pointed out that interest rates for government borrowing have been at an historical low, why havent they borrowed more to invest. Sure, why not. Still adds to the overall debt pile though. Looks bad on the headline figures i suppose. I can definitely see the argument for borrowing up to the hilt and leveraging low risk investment up to the eyeballs mind. Missed opportunities and all that.
Lots of waffle here i know. Its Year End time and my brain has melted. | |
| "Michu, Britton and Williams could have won 3-0 on their own. They wouldn't have required a keeper." | | Poll: | Hattricks |
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| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 09:59 - Mar 2 with 1165 views | Shaky |
| Carney: People earning 3.5% less than estimated before EU vote on 22:36 - Mar 1 by PozuelosSideys |
On an actual basis though, Germany has far more heads given their higher population. If they dont keep importing people, then their economy will start to sag. If anything, they need net increases in the millions every couple of years. The UK needs are different due to birth rates etc. Dont underestimate population density either. I keep banging on about this because it makes a difference. Space, culture, language and particularly to infrastructure. As i mentioned elsewhere, Germany need another 90million or so people to hit the same density as England. Scary.
My aim wasnt to provide you with a simple correlation argument linking wage growth and migration. It was to provide another angle to your broad- brush Brexit assertion.
The German psyche is far more disciplined and methododical than ours im afraid (Assuming you are British) in most aspects of life.
....
As for the Tory policy bit. Thinking about it, if as you correctly pointed out that interest rates for government borrowing have been at an historical low, why havent they borrowed more to invest. Sure, why not. Still adds to the overall debt pile though. Looks bad on the headline figures i suppose. I can definitely see the argument for borrowing up to the hilt and leveraging low risk investment up to the eyeballs mind. Missed opportunities and all that.
Lots of waffle here i know. Its Year End time and my brain has melted. |
One of the main problems with the government infrastructure investment case is purely technical; the tradition of cash accounting vs financial accounting for long term assets in the private sector.
That's why PFI like options look so attractive on paper despite having to pay a significantly higher cost of capital to the private sector, for a very, very long period of time. It is completely nuts.
Do you live in Germany? Or work for a German company? | |
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