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I think Blackburn and Plymouth are pretty much safe now, wins for them at the weekend were huge, 2 more points should do it for them
I said it on another thread but think Birmingham can win at least 2 of the last 3, same as Huddersfield which would leave them on 51 and 50 so we need at the very least 1 more win possibly 2 to be safe
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The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 09:49 - Apr 15 with 3033 views
If QPR fail to beat Preston on Saturday, its League One next season and it will be absolutely deserved. You cannot keep passing up games in the fashion they have been doing all season and expect to get away with it because eventually, it catches up with you.
I don't think they've got the bollocks to do it personally. When the heat is on, this QPR team has melted time and time again. The only thing going for QPR in this run in, is that they can no longer gift 3 points to the teams below them.
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The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 09:49 - Apr 15 with 3033 views
The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 09:49 - Apr 15 by Toast_R
If QPR fail to beat Preston on Saturday, its League One next season and it will be absolutely deserved. You cannot keep passing up games in the fashion they have been doing all season and expect to get away with it because eventually, it catches up with you.
I don't think they've got the bollocks to do it personally. When the heat is on, this QPR team has melted time and time again. The only thing going for QPR in this run in, is that they can no longer gift 3 points to the teams below them.
We're not down if we don't win next week, still 2 more games after that
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The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 09:58 - Apr 15 with 2998 views
The results across the whole division have been completely crazy these last 2 or 3 weeks - so much so that I think who everyone is playing now is almost irrelevant, you have no idea which of the myriad versions of each team is gonna turn up.
It's still in our own hands - if we blow the golden opportunity we created for ourselves after the Easter weekend, devastating as it'll be, I kinda fee we'll deserve it.
The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 09:49 - Apr 15 by Toast_R
If QPR fail to beat Preston on Saturday, its League One next season and it will be absolutely deserved. You cannot keep passing up games in the fashion they have been doing all season and expect to get away with it because eventually, it catches up with you.
I don't think they've got the bollocks to do it personally. When the heat is on, this QPR team has melted time and time again. The only thing going for QPR in this run in, is that they can no longer gift 3 points to the teams below them.
My thoughts entirely
We have burned EIGHT chances to enhance our chances. It is a minor miracle we are still in with a shout of staying up and for that we can thank Nakhi Wells and his divine 100th minute intervention last weekend.
Lose to PNE and it's curtains, blinds and the whole bloody bay window. Draw with PNE and it;s a whole load of Hail Mary's required. Should we somehow win then I'd say safety all but done.
Cherish and enjoy life.... this ain't no dress rehearsal
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The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 10:01 - Apr 15 with 2979 views
My head says we will go down, this team have let us down so often. Caveat to that is that we now have a manager who is capable of dragging results out of them so you never know. Win against Preston should be enough, just but our home form is so bad you just know Preston will do one of their shithousing jobs on us.
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The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 10:02 - Apr 15 with 2975 views
The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 09:40 - Apr 15 by daveB
I think Blackburn and Plymouth are pretty much safe now, wins for them at the weekend were huge, 2 more points should do it for them
I said it on another thread but think Birmingham can win at least 2 of the last 3, same as Huddersfield which would leave them on 51 and 50 so we need at the very least 1 more win possibly 2 to be safe
Dave, although most of what you stated is correct, I don't understand why 50 points would be enough for Blackburn & Plymouth, but not for Rangers.
Of course, they have a better goal difference than us, but ours is superior to Birmingham, Huddersfield & Wednesday.*
* My apologies, I was thinking they were on 48 points & not 49!
[Post edited 15 Apr 10:03]
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The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 10:08 - Apr 15 with 2934 views
QPR v Preston QPR v Leeds Coventry v QPR ---- HUDDS v Swansea HUDDS v Birmingham Ipswich v HUDDS ---- Blackburn v SHEFF WEDS SHEFF WEDS v West Brom Sunderland v SHEFF WEDS
ALL THINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MARTI THE REDEEMER WHO STRENGTHENS ME.
I had Birmingham going down but that 3-0 win on Saturday has really changed my mind. Now they have the Rotherham banker. I still think it's the current bottom 3 (obviously Rotherham gone already). Can see it being very close, probably the last game on the season but a win for us on Saturday would really help. Had the Preston (H) game as the one for a while, thought they were atrocious when we beat them away. Knowing Rangers we will lose on Saturday, then beat Leeds 1-0 (we always beat Leeds 1-0 at home....)
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The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 10:28 - Apr 15 with 2826 views
I think 50 probably stays up on GD. However, it is not inconceivable it is 51 on GD.
Wednesday play: Blackburn (a), West Brom (h), Sunderland (a). Beat Blackburn and I think they’ll pick up 2 wins and a draw, so 7 points is conceivable.
Huddersfield play: Swansea (h), Birmingham (h), Ipswich away. Concern is they could be on 50 going into the last day.
Birmingham play: Rotherham (h), Huddersfield (a), Norwich (h). Birmingham will almost certainly be on 48 after this Sat. If Huddersfield beat them, they’d need to beat Norwich to stay up. If they beat Huddersfield, they’ll be safe, and Huddersfield would be collecting 4 points max from here in, so 48. That game is CRUCIAL, and we almost certainly want Brum to win it.
Stoke play: Plymouth (h), Southampton (a), Bristol City (h). We really want Plymouth to beat them as they could then struggle to reach 50. Even then, If they won one of those last 2, and we reached 50, it’d be on GD, and we are 2 better currently. Tight. Beat Plymouth and they’ll be fine though, you’d think. A draw from the last two would do them.
Plymouth play: Stoke (a), Millwall (a), Hull (h). Them winning on Friday was a disaster, beat Stoke and they are fine. Lose, and they could feasibly not pick up another point. I think we want a win for someone in their game vs Stoke and it to probably be Plymouth
Blackburn play: Wednesday (h), Coventry (h), Leicester (a). Lose to Wednesday and they could finish where there are on 49, and go down. We really want them to beat Wednesday on Sunday.
If Wednesday win away at Blackburn and Huddersfield beat Birmingham the following week, and we fail to beat either Preston or Leeds, we will likely be 3rd bottom going into the last game of the season…The team we’d likely be trying to catch would be Brum (on GD), so we’d need to better their result and we’d need to match Wednesday…
That is worrying. If Huddersfield and Wednesday lose those matches, they’d need to win both their other two fixtures AND have us pick up 2 points or fewer from our 3, due to GD. One might, which brings us into 3rd bottom (assuming we did not win again), which would mean we’d need to hope there is a loser in the Stoke Plymouth game this Sat, and whoever loses it, and we out point in the last two fixtures.
So basically, we desperately want Blackburn to beat Wednesday, and Birmingham to beat Huddersfield. And we want a win in the Stoke vs Plymouth game.
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The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 10:30 - Apr 15 with 2817 views
The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 10:30 - Apr 15 by Ned_Kennedys
Come on: if most of the other results go as expected on Saturday and we don’t win we will be odds on to be relegated.
We’ve fallen apart since Easter: the Sheffield Wednesday debacle was the big one for me and has set the tone for the following games.
EIGHT GAMES since an attacking player scored now: Dykes, Armstrong, Frey, Smyth, Chair, Willock and Anderson should be embarrassed.
I agree we'd be favourites to go down if we don't win but scenario won't have changed really, we need to get at least 50 points to stay up, possibly more
I do agree with Hunter the Blackburn/Sheff Wed and Stoke/Plymouth games are big for us next weekend. Plymouth will be desperate to win that after losing their manager and players to Stoke and could really do with Sheff Wed losing and needing snookers to catch us
It's in our own hands though and thats all you can ask for at this stage of the season
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The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 11:00 - Apr 15 with 2655 views
The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 10:52 - Apr 15 by daveB
I agree we'd be favourites to go down if we don't win but scenario won't have changed really, we need to get at least 50 points to stay up, possibly more
I do agree with Hunter the Blackburn/Sheff Wed and Stoke/Plymouth games are big for us next weekend. Plymouth will be desperate to win that after losing their manager and players to Stoke and could really do with Sheff Wed losing and needing snookers to catch us
It's in our own hands though and thats all you can ask for at this stage of the season
You're not wrong, but it's in those same hands that have consistently dropped the ball against our relegation rivals.
If nothing else though, this division throws up some bizarre shît, and this season more than any other... I just want to stay up so that we can keep Marti, as I think he can turn this club around.
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The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 12:52 - Apr 15 with 2482 views
The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 09:59 - Apr 15 by Lblock
My thoughts entirely
We have burned EIGHT chances to enhance our chances. It is a minor miracle we are still in with a shout of staying up and for that we can thank Nakhi Wells and his divine 100th minute intervention last weekend.
Lose to PNE and it's curtains, blinds and the whole bloody bay window. Draw with PNE and it;s a whole load of Hail Mary's required. Should we somehow win then I'd say safety all but done.
It's not though
We've got just a good as chance of beating Leeds or Coventry as we do Preston .
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The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 13:09 - Apr 15 with 2371 views
The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 13:02 - Apr 15 by Rangersw12
It's not though
We've got just a good as chance of beating Leeds or Coventry as we do Preston .
No we clearly haven’t.
Leeds will be battling for automatic promotion: Preston are almost certainly out of the playoff picture. Coventry are also likely to be out of the playoff picture but are at home.
Both games are more difficult than at home to Preston.
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The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 13:12 - Apr 15 with 2355 views
"Speaking of Birmingham, that win helped them clamber out of the relegation zone and reduced their probability of going down to 37.2%. That’s largely at the expense of Huddersfield Town, who conceded a very late equaliser at Bristol City and now go down in 57.1% of simulations. Sheffield Wednesday also avoided defeat as they drew 1-1 at home to Stoke City, but their relegation chances remain up there at 78.1%.
There are still 10 teams who could mathematically join Rotherham in going down, though after Birmingham, Huddersfield and Sheffield Wednesday, the only other teams with more than a 2% chance are QPR (14.7%) and Stoke (10.1%)."
Its the body language that worries me. In times like this you need all 11 players on the pitch to pull and play together. That was a long, long way from being evident on Saturday. Somehow Marti has got to get them all running their socks off for the team for 100 minutes. Haka anyone ?
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The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 13:14 - Apr 15 with 2333 views
The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 13:12 - Apr 15 by E17hoop
Latest Opta:
"Speaking of Birmingham, that win helped them clamber out of the relegation zone and reduced their probability of going down to 37.2%. That’s largely at the expense of Huddersfield Town, who conceded a very late equaliser at Bristol City and now go down in 57.1% of simulations. Sheffield Wednesday also avoided defeat as they drew 1-1 at home to Stoke City, but their relegation chances remain up there at 78.1%.
There are still 10 teams who could mathematically join Rotherham in going down, though after Birmingham, Huddersfield and Sheffield Wednesday, the only other teams with more than a 2% chance are QPR (14.7%) and Stoke (10.1%)."
It’s proven itself to be pretty rubbish though this analytical simply because the %s vary so much week to week.
If Plymouth lose to Stoke on Saturday, they go 2 points below Stoke and their % shoots up.
Now, I know the existing %s factor in the likelihood of upcoming results, but the fact they keep changing every week and aren’t broadly consistent over a 3-4 week spell means the results are not actually occurring to likelihood, hence this not being indicative of much.
Still interesting though, E17.
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The 2024 relegation thread-oh: Match 44 on 13:32 - Apr 15 with 2228 views
The only thing you can predict in football is that Man City & Chelscum will get away with murder, Leeds will be on the TV if in the EFL and that Keith Stroud is going to referee one of our key upcoming fixtures.
Yesterdays results in the Prem back up this unpredictability. Never expected Palace to get anything at Anfield and then once it had happened I fully expected Arsenal to win and take advantage.
The results at our level are beyond barmy. I keep changing where I am at with it all as one minute I think one win will do it, then a win and a draw, then two wins...... I've decided it's not really in our hands and what will be will be.
Just hoping that Legohead Wells has saved us...... If so I'll love that man even more.
Cherish and enjoy life.... this ain't no dress rehearsal
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