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Brexit might never happen 14:50 - Jul 21 with 7218 viewswestside

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-economic-consequences-may-never-happen-2016
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Brexit might never happen on 14:45 - Jul 22 with 910 viewsexiledclaseboy

Brexit might never happen on 14:40 - Jul 22 by Highjack

If the Scottish referendum had voted for independence and Westminster blocked it how do you think that would have gone down?

It's not legally binding after all.


The legislation that allowed the Scotland vote specifically stated that the result was binding on the government. It would have been illegal to block it. The EU referendum legislation contained no such proviso. Its not legally binding.

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Brexit might never happen on 14:47 - Jul 22 with 907 viewsHighjack

Brexit might never happen on 14:40 - Jul 22 by Lord_Bony

Jesus that makes grim reading for our democracy....

No wonder people can t be bothered voting if its for nothing....


That's exactly the point. There's been a large turnout for this referendum, the whole country has been engaged in some way or another. 35 million people have made the effort to have their say. And if Parliament dare to go against the result then a large swathe of those 35 million voters on both sides will say f uck that, I'm never voting again.

The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
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Brexit might never happen on 14:48 - Jul 22 with 901 viewsmonmouth

Brexit might never happen on 14:40 - Jul 22 by Highjack

If the Scottish referendum had voted for independence and Westminster blocked it how do you think that would have gone down?

It's not legally binding after all.


Nope. That one was legally binding. The legal stance of each referendum is set in the legal instrument that enacts it. The brexit one was deliberately made non-binding. Which is why parliament must make the call if that's what's decided by the courts. People would just have to suck it up.

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Brexit might never happen on 14:49 - Jul 22 with 899 viewsLeonisGod

Brexit might never happen on 14:47 - Jul 22 by Highjack

That's exactly the point. There's been a large turnout for this referendum, the whole country has been engaged in some way or another. 35 million people have made the effort to have their say. And if Parliament dare to go against the result then a large swathe of those 35 million voters on both sides will say f uck that, I'm never voting again.


Agreed, they'll distance themselves even more from the rest of us. They can't go back, but they don't want to go forward. Exactly why Cameron thought 'bugger this, I'm off'.
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Brexit might never happen on 14:49 - Jul 22 with 899 viewslondonlisa2001

Brexit might never happen on 14:40 - Jul 22 by Highjack

If the Scottish referendum had voted for independence and Westminster blocked it how do you think that would have gone down?

It's not legally binding after all.


The equivalent wouldn't be that though. The equivalent would have been they voted to leave and the Scottish Parliament had blocked it as they didn't believe it was in the best interests of Scotland. Which puts a bit of a different spin on it.

As I said - I think we should leave.
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Brexit might never happen on 14:51 - Jul 22 with 891 viewslondonlisa2001

Brexit might never happen on 14:47 - Jul 22 by Highjack

That's exactly the point. There's been a large turnout for this referendum, the whole country has been engaged in some way or another. 35 million people have made the effort to have their say. And if Parliament dare to go against the result then a large swathe of those 35 million voters on both sides will say f uck that, I'm never voting again.


The large swathe of voters that would never vote would be heavily swayed towards the ones that voted out, and I'm not sure parliament would give a toss to be frank.
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Brexit might never happen on 14:53 - Jul 22 with 888 viewsLord_Bony

Brexit might never happen on 14:47 - Jul 22 by Highjack

That's exactly the point. There's been a large turnout for this referendum, the whole country has been engaged in some way or another. 35 million people have made the effort to have their say. And if Parliament dare to go against the result then a large swathe of those 35 million voters on both sides will say f uck that, I'm never voting again.


They should have made us all aware at the time.

Something on the voting card would have done...

"DIsclaimer. This vote is not legally binding." would have done the trick.

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Brexit might never happen on 14:55 - Jul 22 with 885 viewsHighjack

Brexit might never happen on 14:53 - Jul 22 by Lord_Bony

They should have made us all aware at the time.

Something on the voting card would have done...

"DIsclaimer. This vote is not legally binding." would have done the trick.


Yes. "It doesn't matter what you vote. We'll only count it if you vote the way we want you to."

Now that's dictatorship.

The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
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Brexit might never happen on 15:41 - Jul 22 with 845 viewssherpajacob

Brexit might never happen on 14:53 - Jul 22 by Lord_Bony

They should have made us all aware at the time.

Something on the voting card would have done...

"DIsclaimer. This vote is not legally binding." would have done the trick.


The referendum act made no provision for it to be legally binding, those that did their research before voting knew this.

Is it possible that over 1/2 million voters knew this and voted leave as a protest, whereas if it had been legally binding they would have voted differently? We cant be sure either way.

It was an act of parliament that took us in, it must be an act of parliament that takes us out. I believe parliament would respect the result and vote out, but parliamentary democracy must not be bypassed.

This all misses the bigger question of what will brexit look like when it happens.
If we end up an "associate" of the EU and a member of EFTA and EEA, with free movement of people, access to the single market, abiding by EU regulations and making a monetary contribution to the EU, but not actually being a member of the EU, will anybody be happy with that?

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Brexit might never happen on 15:53 - Jul 22 with 825 viewsLord_Bony

"Brexit means Brexit"...shirley.....?

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Brexit might never happen on 15:54 - Jul 22 with 822 viewssherpajacob

Brexit might never happen on 14:33 - Jul 22 by WarwickHunt

For Cameron to shut his Tory party rebels up.

The massive tw@t.


Dodgy Dave should have heeded the words of his idol

"Perhaps the late Lord Attlee was right," Thatcher observed, "when he said that the referendum was a device of dictators and demagogues."

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Brexit might never happen on 15:54 - Jul 22 with 820 viewsBrynmill_Jack

Brexit might never happen on 15:41 - Jul 22 by sherpajacob

The referendum act made no provision for it to be legally binding, those that did their research before voting knew this.

Is it possible that over 1/2 million voters knew this and voted leave as a protest, whereas if it had been legally binding they would have voted differently? We cant be sure either way.

It was an act of parliament that took us in, it must be an act of parliament that takes us out. I believe parliament would respect the result and vote out, but parliamentary democracy must not be bypassed.

This all misses the bigger question of what will brexit look like when it happens.
If we end up an "associate" of the EU and a member of EFTA and EEA, with free movement of people, access to the single market, abiding by EU regulations and making a monetary contribution to the EU, but not actually being a member of the EU, will anybody be happy with that?


Keep wringing that f*cking towel Jacob. It will be dry one day........

Tactical voting by remainers who knew a leave vote wasn't legally binding just to teach the government a lesson? Never mind 9/11, that's conspiracy theory at it's tin foil hatted best

Each time I go to Bedd - au........................

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Brexit might never happen on 15:58 - Jul 22 with 810 viewssherpajacob

Brexit might never happen on 15:53 - Jul 22 by Lord_Bony

"Brexit means Brexit"...shirley.....?


an "associate" of the EU and a member of EFTA and EEA, with free movement of people, access to the single market, abiding by EU regulations and making a monetary contribution to the EU, but not actually being a member of the EU,

This would qualify as brexit?, the referendum only asked whether we should be a member.

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Brexit might never happen on 16:02 - Jul 22 with 794 viewsHighjack

Brexit might never happen on 15:58 - Jul 22 by sherpajacob

an "associate" of the EU and a member of EFTA and EEA, with free movement of people, access to the single market, abiding by EU regulations and making a monetary contribution to the EU, but not actually being a member of the EU,

This would qualify as brexit?, the referendum only asked whether we should be a member.



The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
Poll: Should Dippy Drakeford do us all a massive favour and just bog off?

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Brexit might never happen on 16:06 - Jul 22 with 785 viewslondonlisa2001

Brexit might never happen on 16:02 - Jul 22 by Highjack



Hang on a second - you can't dispute what he just said as it is the very 'Norway model' that so many on the Brexit side continually banged on about. That is the model they operate. Free access, free movement, contributions, but no membership. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we ended up with something like that.
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Brexit might never happen on 16:33 - Jul 22 with 749 viewsjackonicko

Brexit might never happen on 15:41 - Jul 22 by sherpajacob

The referendum act made no provision for it to be legally binding, those that did their research before voting knew this.

Is it possible that over 1/2 million voters knew this and voted leave as a protest, whereas if it had been legally binding they would have voted differently? We cant be sure either way.

It was an act of parliament that took us in, it must be an act of parliament that takes us out. I believe parliament would respect the result and vote out, but parliamentary democracy must not be bypassed.

This all misses the bigger question of what will brexit look like when it happens.
If we end up an "associate" of the EU and a member of EFTA and EEA, with free movement of people, access to the single market, abiding by EU regulations and making a monetary contribution to the EU, but not actually being a member of the EU, will anybody be happy with that?


It was indeed an act of Parliament. The European Communities Act 1972. And that very Act of Parliament gives direct effect to all Treaties of the European Union, even those that were passed after 1972. So this Includes the Lisbon treaty, passed in 2009. Which includes Article 50. Which means the power of Article 50 is already part of UK law automatically under an Act of Parliament passed 40nyears previously. Rememberer that argument about democratic sovereignty - ironic ain't it?

Anyway, the actual constitutional argument here is that Art 50 says that a country must follow its local constitutional practice before triggering the article 50 power. Now, there are many hundreds of years of UK constitutional practice and precedent that says international affairs can be done by the cabinet - and therefore the PM - under royal prerogative. Not by parliamentary vote. So, therefore it's fine for the PM to trigger alone. Whether the referendum is legally binding or not is irrelevant.

There are some legal eagles that say the opposite.

But it's all an interesting legal discussion that has no real impact on the decision. There is no way the UK Parliament will overrule a referendum if they put it to the vote. Therein madness lies. It's an important constitutional question to resolve purely because of the legal precedent it sets - and what it means for the power of, and the curbs over the power of, the executive. So let the legal folks have their time. It will have no impact on the outcome.

They are not going to trigger Article 50 til the end of the year because the financial year for the EU is a December year end. It will make Brexit even more fiendishly complicated if the UK is required to make part year contributions to the EU budget. In my view, that's why they are talking about doing it in 1 January. It makes things a little bit easier.
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Brexit might never happen on 16:46 - Jul 22 with 731 viewsLeonisGod

Brexit might never happen on 16:33 - Jul 22 by jackonicko

It was indeed an act of Parliament. The European Communities Act 1972. And that very Act of Parliament gives direct effect to all Treaties of the European Union, even those that were passed after 1972. So this Includes the Lisbon treaty, passed in 2009. Which includes Article 50. Which means the power of Article 50 is already part of UK law automatically under an Act of Parliament passed 40nyears previously. Rememberer that argument about democratic sovereignty - ironic ain't it?

Anyway, the actual constitutional argument here is that Art 50 says that a country must follow its local constitutional practice before triggering the article 50 power. Now, there are many hundreds of years of UK constitutional practice and precedent that says international affairs can be done by the cabinet - and therefore the PM - under royal prerogative. Not by parliamentary vote. So, therefore it's fine for the PM to trigger alone. Whether the referendum is legally binding or not is irrelevant.

There are some legal eagles that say the opposite.

But it's all an interesting legal discussion that has no real impact on the decision. There is no way the UK Parliament will overrule a referendum if they put it to the vote. Therein madness lies. It's an important constitutional question to resolve purely because of the legal precedent it sets - and what it means for the power of, and the curbs over the power of, the executive. So let the legal folks have their time. It will have no impact on the outcome.

They are not going to trigger Article 50 til the end of the year because the financial year for the EU is a December year end. It will make Brexit even more fiendishly complicated if the UK is required to make part year contributions to the EU budget. In my view, that's why they are talking about doing it in 1 January. It makes things a little bit easier.


Useful background, but the whether this is a Royal Prerogative issue is what's being debated in parliament and will also be taken to the High Court in October. So it doesn't look as clear cut as you say.

The timing of triggering Article 50 has got nothing to do with our contributions and the EU's end of year. It can't do, as we'll be making contributions until we leave, and that might not be for another 30 months.
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Brexit might never happen on 16:46 - Jul 22 with 730 viewsLord_Bony

Brexit might never happen on 16:33 - Jul 22 by jackonicko

It was indeed an act of Parliament. The European Communities Act 1972. And that very Act of Parliament gives direct effect to all Treaties of the European Union, even those that were passed after 1972. So this Includes the Lisbon treaty, passed in 2009. Which includes Article 50. Which means the power of Article 50 is already part of UK law automatically under an Act of Parliament passed 40nyears previously. Rememberer that argument about democratic sovereignty - ironic ain't it?

Anyway, the actual constitutional argument here is that Art 50 says that a country must follow its local constitutional practice before triggering the article 50 power. Now, there are many hundreds of years of UK constitutional practice and precedent that says international affairs can be done by the cabinet - and therefore the PM - under royal prerogative. Not by parliamentary vote. So, therefore it's fine for the PM to trigger alone. Whether the referendum is legally binding or not is irrelevant.

There are some legal eagles that say the opposite.

But it's all an interesting legal discussion that has no real impact on the decision. There is no way the UK Parliament will overrule a referendum if they put it to the vote. Therein madness lies. It's an important constitutional question to resolve purely because of the legal precedent it sets - and what it means for the power of, and the curbs over the power of, the executive. So let the legal folks have their time. It will have no impact on the outcome.

They are not going to trigger Article 50 til the end of the year because the financial year for the EU is a December year end. It will make Brexit even more fiendishly complicated if the UK is required to make part year contributions to the EU budget. In my view, that's why they are talking about doing it in 1 January. It makes things a little bit easier.


Well thats put my mind at rest a little bit but I can t help feeling a little jittery over the way this referendum vote is going to be side tracked and swamped in legal and parliamentary discussions and battles over the next few years. What happens if Labour get in will they trigger it?dont think so...

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Brexit might never happen on 16:50 - Jul 22 with 726 viewslondonlisa2001

Brexit might never happen on 16:33 - Jul 22 by jackonicko

It was indeed an act of Parliament. The European Communities Act 1972. And that very Act of Parliament gives direct effect to all Treaties of the European Union, even those that were passed after 1972. So this Includes the Lisbon treaty, passed in 2009. Which includes Article 50. Which means the power of Article 50 is already part of UK law automatically under an Act of Parliament passed 40nyears previously. Rememberer that argument about democratic sovereignty - ironic ain't it?

Anyway, the actual constitutional argument here is that Art 50 says that a country must follow its local constitutional practice before triggering the article 50 power. Now, there are many hundreds of years of UK constitutional practice and precedent that says international affairs can be done by the cabinet - and therefore the PM - under royal prerogative. Not by parliamentary vote. So, therefore it's fine for the PM to trigger alone. Whether the referendum is legally binding or not is irrelevant.

There are some legal eagles that say the opposite.

But it's all an interesting legal discussion that has no real impact on the decision. There is no way the UK Parliament will overrule a referendum if they put it to the vote. Therein madness lies. It's an important constitutional question to resolve purely because of the legal precedent it sets - and what it means for the power of, and the curbs over the power of, the executive. So let the legal folks have their time. It will have no impact on the outcome.

They are not going to trigger Article 50 til the end of the year because the financial year for the EU is a December year end. It will make Brexit even more fiendishly complicated if the UK is required to make part year contributions to the EU budget. In my view, that's why they are talking about doing it in 1 January. It makes things a little bit easier.


Ahh, the Letwin view.

Of course he's now been sacked. And the majority of lawyers at the moment seem to think we do need an act of Parliament. If nothing else, it would be subject to a judicial review as all matters decided under royal prerogative can be. I believe there is a case before the high court in October dealing with this very subject.

As you say, it should be moot. But I actually think it's not a slam dunk if it goes before parliament. It should be - they should respect the vote. But I'm not absolutely certain they will. We'll see.
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Brexit might never happen on 16:50 - Jul 22 with 724 viewsLeonisGod

Brexit might never happen on 16:46 - Jul 22 by Lord_Bony

Well thats put my mind at rest a little bit but I can t help feeling a little jittery over the way this referendum vote is going to be side tracked and swamped in legal and parliamentary discussions and battles over the next few years. What happens if Labour get in will they trigger it?dont think so...


That's one option. The Tories delay to the point that they're no longer in power. Then what? Like you say, I can't see Labour taking us out, but they have got nutters like that Gisela Stuart who would do so quite happily. So who knows?

It's a bit of a clusterf*ck.
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Brexit might never happen on 16:51 - Jul 22 with 723 viewsjackonicko

Brexit might never happen on 16:46 - Jul 22 by LeonisGod

Useful background, but the whether this is a Royal Prerogative issue is what's being debated in parliament and will also be taken to the High Court in October. So it doesn't look as clear cut as you say.

The timing of triggering Article 50 has got nothing to do with our contributions and the EU's end of year. It can't do, as we'll be making contributions until we leave, and that might not be for another 30 months.


Oh, I didn't say it was clear cut. I said one view was it was absolutely fine and another bunch of legal eagles say the opposite. So, let' them pop to the constitutional court to get the answer.

It's actually important to do it right because of precedent. For what it means for the powers of the executive. But it's irrelevant to whether we trigger Article 50. If one side wins, the PM triggers. If the other side wins, there is a vote and then the PM triggers it.

The view on timing is just my view. Clearly the UK needs time to work up its negotiating strategy. I just think they will very quickly work out (if they haven't already) that this will be even more fiendishly complex if they don't align the exit timetable to the financial year end. So that's why the trigger date will be the end of the year.
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Brexit might never happen on 16:53 - Jul 22 with 718 viewslondonlisa2001

Brexit might never happen on 16:51 - Jul 22 by jackonicko

Oh, I didn't say it was clear cut. I said one view was it was absolutely fine and another bunch of legal eagles say the opposite. So, let' them pop to the constitutional court to get the answer.

It's actually important to do it right because of precedent. For what it means for the powers of the executive. But it's irrelevant to whether we trigger Article 50. If one side wins, the PM triggers. If the other side wins, there is a vote and then the PM triggers it.

The view on timing is just my view. Clearly the UK needs time to work up its negotiating strategy. I just think they will very quickly work out (if they haven't already) that this will be even more fiendishly complex if they don't align the exit timetable to the financial year end. So that's why the trigger date will be the end of the year.


It's actually probably easier if we align it to our financial year end rather than theirs.
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Brexit might never happen on 16:54 - Jul 22 with 716 viewsmonmouth

Brexit might never happen on 16:50 - Jul 22 by LeonisGod

That's one option. The Tories delay to the point that they're no longer in power. Then what? Like you say, I can't see Labour taking us out, but they have got nutters like that Gisela Stuart who would do so quite happily. So who knows?

It's a bit of a clusterf*ck.


The tories will never not be in power.

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Brexit might never happen on 16:55 - Jul 22 with 713 viewslondonlisa2001

Brexit might never happen on 16:54 - Jul 22 by monmouth

The tories will never not be in power.


Not for a very long time at least.
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Brexit might never happen on 16:58 - Jul 22 with 701 viewsjackonicko

Brexit might never happen on 16:50 - Jul 22 by londonlisa2001

Ahh, the Letwin view.

Of course he's now been sacked. And the majority of lawyers at the moment seem to think we do need an act of Parliament. If nothing else, it would be subject to a judicial review as all matters decided under royal prerogative can be. I believe there is a case before the high court in October dealing with this very subject.

As you say, it should be moot. But I actually think it's not a slam dunk if it goes before parliament. It should be - they should respect the vote. But I'm not absolutely certain they will. We'll see.


There's no such thing as a majority view of lawyers. If you put 3 in a room, you will get 5 views. ;)

It's a geeky public law question that lawyers love to debate. I love this stuff but I have no idea what the right answer is. Just a point of view.

I still think we can just repeal the ECA and we are immediately out of the EU. Parliamentary sovereignty and all that. Article 50 is irrelevant and the two year timetable. Just repeal the ECA when you are good and ready.

Now, that would get the geeky public lawyers going. I think I still have the essay I wrote in about 1997 arguing this!
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