Football's back to the future 25/26 brings a classic 90s fixture to Loftus Road this Saturday, but who's coping better with the throwback?

QPR (5-3-4 DDWLWL 9th) v Ipswich (4-4-3 WDWLLW 12th)

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Martin O’Neill is the Celtic manager. Darren Ferguson has been sacked by Peterborough United and is now a short odds second favourite to replace himself at London Road behind, presumably, Grant McCann. Watford are onto a second boss of the second already and it’s… Javi Gracia. Put your little hand in mind, there ain’t no hill or mountain we can’t climb.

Godspeed to whichever nurse on the ICU is in charge of persuading recovering coma patients it’s 2025 when they pick up the sport pages to that little lot. England manager talking about his plans to take the USA World Cup by storm next year with more long throws and direct play (demand it Les, they perhaps can’t see you). Coventry heading back to the top flight. Millwall possibly joining them. Arsenal heavy title favourites upstairs. Boy, what year is this?

There has been a distinctly old-school feel to the QPR approach since the Coventry debacle as well. A big-man-little-man combination up front, two creative wide players in the team, a 4-4-2 formation, my God I could be standing down the side at Portman Road watching Andy Impey lay waste to John Wark all over again. (Disclaimer, before we get letters, I’m well aware our possession-less approach to things since September is a far cry from that Wilkins-led team. As much as I love Jimmy Dunne and haven’t minded Rhys Norrington-Davies so far, David Bardsley and Clive Wilson they ain’t. As all exemplified by the glorious highlights of this fixture from 1993. But cut me some slack will you, previews don’t write themselves etc.)

Still, it’s been a welcome relief to those of us who find Russell Martin-ball every bit as tedious as Tony Pulis-ball, and have their arsehole going 5p, 10p, 50p and back again every time a middling Championship team tries to defeat its opposition by passing the ball around their own six yard box repeatedly – particularly when that team is QPR and that goalkeeper is, well, a QPR goalkeeper.

The style of football has changed rapidly in this country. Arsenal top the Premier League with a set-piece dominated strategy Arsene Wenger used to abhor in a Stoke City side he branded a rugby club.

That’s had many effects, but one of them is potentially being felt in the Championship.

I listened to all the main Championship season previews as part of compiling ours back in the summer, and I can’t tell you how demoralising and boring it is to sit through a couple of hours of podcast only to hear the conclusion that the Championship’s top three this year will be Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester – the three teams who were relegated from last year’s Premier League with just 12 wins between them (Southampton contributing just two) and 248 (!!) goals conceded across their 114 collective games.

I don’t particularly blame anybody for reaching that conclusion. Over the last 12 years Burley have been promoted four times, Norwich and Fulham three times each, Leeds, Sheff Utd and Leicester twice apiece. I think the last time there were three sides promoted from this league without parachute payments was 2010/11 when we did it along with Norwich and Swansea.

We put Leicester midtable this year for a variety of reasons, but mainly because we expected a points deduction which, in true EFL style, is still yet to materialise six months after it was expected to be metered out. However, we did back Ipswich and Southampton to be top with Coventry because looking at the talent in their squads, and the depth to them, it was hard to see otherwise. Southampton’s worst striker would be everybody else’s best. Ipswich were coming back with Jack Clarke on one wing and Jaden Philogene on the other.

So far, that hasn’t materialised, and while it’ll be chastening in a year’s time if our tips for one and two actually ended up 12th and 20th (still not as bad as our Luton call, mind) it would be a glorious thing to be wrong about. If the top three really does end up being Coventry, Middlesbrough and Millwall that will be a great thing for football at our level. The top six as it stands doesn’t have a parachute payment between them. Two clubs in receipt of that financial dope are currently in the bottom five.

There are, as ever, myriad factors at work here. Leicester have been decaying for years and have a whole load of extremely high earners who don’t want to be there, the club needs to shift, marking time. Southampton may have all the gear, but they appear to have no idea. Hiring from the Jake Humphrey’s High Performance Podcast will be a red flag in our future season previews. Ipswich lost key men in Delap and Hutchinson, and had risen very far very quickly prior to that.

Momentum is also against all three. This really was a terrible Premier League bottom three last season – a shame because it might have hilariously relegated either Spurs and/or Man Utd if one or two of them could have removed their fists from their arse to the extent Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland have this year. Some West Ham and Wolves types who’ve been resting on the promoted teams always being shite are potentially in for a rude awakening this May. Between them Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester barely won as many games collectively as QPR’s dreadful relegated side of 2014/15 did by itself (eight). You can’t flick form, confidence, belief on and off like a bathroom light. Since their play-off final triumph against Leeds, Southampton have won four (four) of 50 (!!) league games.

However, it is hard to look at the stats and not think this sudden shift back to pwopah English football circa 1992 hasn’t caught out three clubs who all managed by progressive, modern managers.

When you look at the possession stats for the division, who are the top three who have had most of the ball? Southampton 59%, Ipswich and Leicester with 57.1%. Yet on the actual league table they’re 10th, 12th and 20th. Ipswich have taken just two points and scored only three goals in their four away games so far (and were losing a fifth to nil at Blackburn before being rescued late on by the weather) which is the joint worst record in the EFL along with Watford. Of the four games they’ve won at home, two came in the only two matches they’ve played this year where they had less ball than their opponent (Portsmouth, Sheff Utd).

Look, it’s a bit early to be scouring league tables looking for clues, and I still think there’s going to be some ‘regression to mean’ here. Only Coventry create more “big chances” than Ipswich – Town just top the table for “big chances missed” at the moment. That’s pretty ominous for tomorrow given how Rangers fared against The Sky Blues. McKenna’s team’s next seven games are QPR, Watford, Swansea, Wrexham, Hull, Oxford, Blackburn. I’d be astonished if Ipswich don’t recover their form as far as the top six come May. Leicester likewise, unless the EFL do finally strap a pair on. But this week doesn’t look as daunting as it did when the fixtures were released.

QPR, so conventional wisdom based on last year’s competition said, had a particularly kind start to this year. No parachute payment team until November. Preston, Charlton, Stoke, Oxford and Millwall to begin at home. The next 12 games after that, however, looked far more difficult as the dark nights drew in, and it began with this week where three of the monied clubs come at us all at once in the dreaded three-game week – Ipswich, Southampton and Sheff Utd.

Julien Stéphan’s men, however, are thriving in situations where the opposition want the ball and want to attack. The R’s bide their time then spring Burrell, Kone and co over the top. QPR’s last nine victories have all come with less of the ball (including Swansea last week), while they are now winless in 12 matches when they’ve had more of it (including Derby last Saturday). So far this season, that’s exactly what Ipswich have been most vulnerable to.

Further clues this week. I do worry that teams will start to catch up with our abrupt mid-season change in tactics and start to pick us apart again. And, as we enter the winter, the depth of these former Premier League squads may start to tell. QPR might be about to get a stark reality check.

If we do, suck it up and reflect on a certain degree of progress. This weekend two years ago we lost 2-1 at home to Leicester in Gareth Ainsworth’s final match. The bench that day was Drewe, Richards, Duke-McKenna, Archer, Larkeche and Kolli.

Links >>> Bruno’s knockout blow – History >>> Stuttering Town – Oppo Focus >>> Allison in charge – Referee >>> Ipswich Town Official Website >>> Ipswich Star – Local Press >>> East Anglian Daily Times – Local Press >>> TWTD – Blog and Forum >>> Talking Town – Podcast

Below the fold

Team News: Bar long term absentees Joe Walsh and Ziyad Larkeche, QPR have near enough a fully fit squad to choose from – albeit with Ilias Chair, Kwame Poku and Jake Clarke-Salter (stop it) making their way back from medium term absences and likely fit enough only for the bench at this point. What this means for certain fringe players in the squad will be interesting in this latest three-game week. Kieran Morgan’s descent from first team regular to off the scene completely seems to be continuing as he turned out for the development squad against Charlton on Friday which presumably means he won’t be involved against Ipswich at all. Rayan Kolli, who was taken to Swansea last Wednesday night and didn’t make the bench and also wasn’t involved at Derby, has been in first team training videos so we’ll see what the new week has in store for him and what The Algerian Chronicale might make of that (to be fair, of all the Chronicales, the Algerian one is pretty decent).

For Ipswich, goalkeeper Alex Palmer remains sidelined and Irish international striker Sammie Szmodics has had surgery on a knee injury.

Elsewhere: It’s a first competitive meeting between Wrexham and Coventry since 1964 as the Mercantile Credit Trophy lurches back into life tonight. Wrexham had been getting to grips with the level with one defeat in seven games, but a midweek defeat to League One Cardiff in the cup hasn’t gone down well (mind you, that’s a derby game only in the same way Sky think Plymouth v Portsmouth is a “dockyard derby”). They’ll have all on tonight against Cov who are unbeaten in 12 to start the season, have won six in a row and scored 34 goals already. They’re just playing a different game to the rest of the division at the moment.

Few clubs have ever been so delighted to go into administration as Sheff Wed. The mandatory 12-point deduction leaves them on -6, 16 adrift of safety, and effectively relegated already. Staff will lose their league position, creditors (almost certainly including St John’s Ambulance) will be paid a fraction of what they’re owed, people will lose their jobs and the appointed administrators will be handsomely paid. But it rids them of the Chansiri tumour, and as he’s creditor in chief he’ll lose more than anybody. Hopefully it leaves the little twat completely destitute – perhaps he can beg a job on the line at one of his tuna canning plants? Fans are now flooding the club with money for tickets and merchandise having successfully starved him out, and ticket prices have been slashed. It wasn’t enough to prevent a 2-1 defeat to Oxford last time out but they could be an interesting result to watch out for in the coming weeks, starting in tomorrow’s lunchtime game at West Brom.

It’s a big lunchtime clash for Leicester and Blackburn as well. Rovers look to be the next cab off the rank to League One after years of decline and won’t be fancied for much at a ground they’ve won one of their last ten visits, but Leicester (while unbeaten at home) have won one of eight games and lost their last two. Pressure building on Marti Cifuentes there.

Another gaffer under the pump, Liam Manning, will surely be lucky to survive a lunchtime loss at home to Hull City.

Contrasting fortunes between Watford and Middlesbrough who meet among the afternoon kick offs. Watford, already onto a second manager, have the league’s worst away record and are the only side still to keep a clean sheet after 12 games - it is the furthest the Hornets have ever gone into a second-tier campaign without keeping one. Boro, meanwhile, have former Watford manager (hey, who isn’t?) Rob Edwards in the dug out and are tucked in behind Cov in second with just one loss and seven points form the last nine.

Millwall, who we really fancied this year, are third ahead of their Gary Rowett derby at Oxford. Rowett haunted them last season with a Christmas win at The Den, one of only two away wins Oxford managed all season.

Bristol City in fourth travel to Stoke in fifth, but I’m not sure anybody expected to see Charlton in sixth. They’re at home to Swanselona tomorrow and could easily further their position against the distinctly mediocre 4-4-4 Swans. Nathan Jones’ side have now lost just one of their last 20 matches at The Valley.

Will Still needs a win to keep his Southampton show on the road at home to Preston Knob End, but has lost key midfielder Shea Charles to a “significant hamstring injury” – still not sure on that decision to let Will Smallbone go to Millwall lads.

Portsmouth are struggling with their transition to more of a possession-based side and will have all on away at Birmingham whose early season hype has so far translated to 13th in the league.

Referee: Former footballer Sam Allison was fast tracked into the Premier League amidst a hail of publicity 18 months ago, but it’s more than a year since he did a top flight game and he’s back in the Championship this weekend. His two Premier League games last season both featured Ipswich. Details.

Form

- QPR’s double away week did nothing to improve the worst record in the league for ‘away fatigued’ game three in a three game week but did plenty to further the idea Rangers are a lot better without the ball than with it. The R’s won 1-0 at Swansea with 46.8% of the ball, then lost by the same score at Derby against the dreaded low block despite having 61.7% possession. QPR’s last nine victories have all come with less of the ball, while they are now winless in 12 matches when they’ve had more of it going back to Blackburn at home in February.

- Tomorrow’s game might play into Rangers’ hands in that regard. Ipswich have had equal or more possession than their opponent in all but two of their games so far. Only Southampton (59%) average more possession this year than Town (57.1%). Two of their four victories came in the games where they had less – 49% at home to Portsmouth in a 2-1 win, and bizarrely 47% against Sheff Utd where they won 5-0. They lost 1-0 at Preston with 72% of the ball and drew 1-1 at Bristol City with 64% of it.

- 18 points is twice as many as QPR had at this stage last season.

- Ipswich are three places and two points behind QPR in the early league table. The title favourites have won only four games so far at home to Sheff Utd, Portsmouth, Norwich & West Brom (two of current bottom three).

- The weirdly lopsided fixture list and a postponement means Ipswich have only played four times away from home while QPR have been on the road seven times. For what it’s worth with that in mind, Town are 23rd in the Championship for points away from home with two draws (Birmingham, Bristol City) and two defeats (Preston, Boro) so far. It’s the fewest away points in the EFL, alongside Watford, and they’ve scored only three times on their travels. They have conceded first in all four games and were also losing 1-0 at Blackburn when that game was abandoned with ten minutes left.

- Ipswich are winless across their last eight away league games (D4 L4), since a 2-1 win at Bournemouth in April – the Tractor Boys could lose back-to-back games on the road outside of the top-flight for the first time since December 2021 in League One (vs Sunderland and Charlton). They have won five of their last 27 away games in all competitions – a run that includes cup defeats on penalties at Wimbledon and Bromley. They haven’t kept a clean sheet away from home in 24 attempts.

- QPR made a better start to the season at Loftus Road than they have in recent years with two wins and two draws from the first four games (it took them 11 league games to get two home wins last season, and nine the year before) but the R’s were beaten by Millwall here last time out. Rangers have won just two of their last 11 home league games (D5 L4), averaging just one goal per game during that time.

- Ipswich won 1-0 here the last time we met as Kieran McKenna’s side set off towards a double promotion and Gareth Ainsworth’s men headed towards the bottom of the barrel. Still, Sinclair Armstrong hit the inside of both posts, Osman Kakay missed an open goal and Ilias Chair came within a whisker of a goal from the halfway line in that game and Rangers do have a good record against Town in W12. QPR have won six of the last seven meetings here going back to 2010.

- In fact, Ipswich have won just three of their last 14 league games against QPR (D2 L9), but did win 1-0 away and draw 0-0 in that 2023/24 season.

- Ipswich have been awarded four penalties this year, more than anybody else in the division.

- I’m not a massive fan of the “big chances” stat, because for me that’s a subjective thing – what you and I consider a big chance may be different, what is a big chance for Charlie Austin isn’t for Conor Washington. But if you’re one of those xG enthusiasts then Ipswich (35) are second only to Coventry (41) for “big chances created” this year and nobody in the league has missed more big chances than Town (25).

- Former QPR loanee Jack Clarke (one start, six sub apps for Mark Warburton in 2019/20, remember?) is the top scorer here with five. He has scored four of those as a substitute so far this season in the Championship, at least twice as many as any other player. Those goals have been worth three points to Ipswich (one winner, one equaliser).

- Hammersmith-born Jaden Philogene has scored five goals in last seven appearances but has not scored away from Portman Road since February. He scored in his last appearance against QPR – a 3-0 win for Hull in April 2024.

Prediction

In our Prediction League for 2025/26 we’ll once again be handing out prizes for being top at Christmas and overall winner from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here. QPR_Hibs won last season’s Prediction League at a canter and is lending his thoughts to this year’s previews – we’ve had three new leaders of this year’s table in as many games and it’s JB007007 who goes into this week on top...

“I think most QPR supporters would agree that we are extremely lucky to have the cramped but beautiful Loftus Road Stadium as our home, with its safe standing areas and lack of tourist spectators. Despite its many faults (don’t mention the water pressure in the toilets) the closeness of the pitch can generate a fantastic atmosphere on match days.

“The same cannot be said of Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium and the Gunners have apparently come up with all sorts of (terrible) ideas to try to improve things at ‘the library.’ Some solutions have included: the removal the cover over the walkout tunnel, having interactive light shows before big games and turning off the television screens on the concourse before the second half starts– presumably to try to force the prawn sandwich brigade back to their seats to actually watch the game. Their worst idea, though, is the change to the announcement made whenever a home goal is scored. The stadium announcer now shouts out the first name of the scorer and the crowd chant back the surname – three times in total. And you thought blaring out “Pigbag” was a bit much.

“After a couple of away games, it will be good to get back to West London for the visit of Ipswich Town on Saturday. Ipswich are, perhaps surprisingly, only sitting in mid-table in the Championship and recently lost 3-0 at home to Charlton despite having 31 shots and 67% possession in that game. Suggestions that Ashley Young being given the nod at right back over Darnell Furlong have anything to do with that result have not been confirmed.

“QPR allegedly have a full (uninjured) squad to choose from, and I have absolutely no idea what Stéphan will do, except that Nardi will start, irrespective of his perceived failures in the last couple of weeks. Personally, I would be starting Hayden over Varane, and I would love to see Vale in the “10” role behind Kone, though that almost certainly won’t happen. I fancy us to beat Ipswich, especially if they play their possession football which will allow us to hit them on the break. Kone to return to scoring action with a brace.”

QPR_Hibs Prediction: QPR 2-1 Ipswich. Scorer – Richard Kone

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 2-2 Ipswich. Scorer – Richard Kone

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Pictures - Ian Randall Photography

gazza1 added 21:10 - Oct 31 We played pretty average last Saturday at Derby but I expect the starting line up to be pretty much the same excluding Vale where Smyth may return. Depending how adventurous the Manager is he my start Chair. We will see, tough game ahead but we should be looking at 3 points, minimum a draw.
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TacticalR added 13:49 - Nov 1 Thanks for your preview. So this possession stat means that we lose to the teams we should beat, and we beat the teams we should lose to? Anyway, it's good that the sides relegated from the Premier League are not having everything their own way. One thing that I do notice is that a lot of teams are playing long balls over the top. That's how Millwall beat Leicester and opened the scoring against us. A lot will depend on which Ipswich turns up, and whether we can find a way of supplying our strikers.

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