| Non-Scientific Scientists 11:29 - May 20 with 919 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
There's a small number of scientists who keep cropping up in the media, often they speculate with insufficient evidence to support their position. He's an example where he's quoted as saying 'I think so'.
In my early scientific training the clear difference between fact and assumption was drummed into me, assumption is to be avoided
Prof Andrew Hayward, an infectious disease expert at University College London who advises the government, tells BBC Breakfast he is “very concerned” about the spread of the B1.617.2 variant first identified in India and “more generalised” measures may be needed.
Asked if the UK is at the start of a third wave of infections, he says: “I think so.”
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| Non-Scientific Scientists on 12:07 - May 20 with 908 views | Scotia |
I don't think he could really say much more than that.
There are too many variables in this situation. The only alternative is for scientists to say nothing.
The only ones I've heard say anything with certainty have been wrong. |  | | |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 12:14 - May 20 with 905 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 12:07 - May 20 by Scotia |
I don't think he could really say much more than that.
There are too many variables in this situation. The only alternative is for scientists to say nothing.
The only ones I've heard say anything with certainty have been wrong. |
'too early to tell' would have been a reasonable answer. | |
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| Non-Scientific Scientists on 12:17 - May 20 with 903 views | Dr_Winston |
I'm fed up of the sight of Neil Ferguson, I'll tell you that much.
If someone needs to shut the hell up and stop appearing in the media for quite some time it's him. |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Non-Scientific Scientists on 12:25 - May 20 with 898 views | Professor |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 12:14 - May 20 by JACKMANANDBOY |
'too early to tell' would have been a reasonable answer. |
The media don't understand uncertainty. The problem with any process that has variability or stochasticity is the outcome is uncertain. Mathematical modelling is very much a prediction within a wide range of variance, yet media (especially the Mail) jump on worst and best case scenarios as 'scientists say". They also can't get the idea outcomes are not binary.
Too early to tell is the right answer, as we have little idea of spread in an increasingly immune population.
The problem is infection of the young, and especially spread in schools. And despite what the sceptics shout kids get pretty unwell. The latest data suggest 10-15% develop symptoms lasting over 10 weeks. Whilst mortality is unlikely it would still be hugely disruptive. | | | |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 17:10 - May 20 with 845 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 12:25 - May 20 by Professor |
The media don't understand uncertainty. The problem with any process that has variability or stochasticity is the outcome is uncertain. Mathematical modelling is very much a prediction within a wide range of variance, yet media (especially the Mail) jump on worst and best case scenarios as 'scientists say". They also can't get the idea outcomes are not binary.
Too early to tell is the right answer, as we have little idea of spread in an increasingly immune population.
The problem is infection of the young, and especially spread in schools. And despite what the sceptics shout kids get pretty unwell. The latest data suggest 10-15% develop symptoms lasting over 10 weeks. Whilst mortality is unlikely it would still be hugely disruptive. |
Hopefully once trials have been completed they can start vaccinating under 16s. [Post edited 20 May 2021 17:10]
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| Non-Scientific Scientists on 17:20 - May 20 with 826 views | Gwyn737 |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 12:07 - May 20 by Scotia |
I don't think he could really say much more than that.
There are too many variables in this situation. The only alternative is for scientists to say nothing.
The only ones I've heard say anything with certainty have been wrong. |
There was a thread on here a little while ago on choosing Welsh heroes.
I went for Bertrand Russell and one of his quotes is apt here:
“One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.” | | | |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 17:38 - May 20 with 816 views | Scotia |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 12:17 - May 20 by Dr_Winston |
I'm fed up of the sight of Neil Ferguson, I'll tell you that much.
If someone needs to shut the hell up and stop appearing in the media for quite some time it's him. |
I know what you mean.
I've sort of felt the same about Jeremy Farrar and Christine Pagel. They seem to be quite pessimistic.
Unfortunately for everyone they seem, Neil Ferguson included, to have been the most accurate. | | | |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 18:07 - May 20 with 798 views | Professor |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 17:10 - May 20 by felixstowe_jack |
Hopefully once trials have been completed they can start vaccinating under 16s. [Post edited 20 May 2021 17:10]
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Certainly over 12s at the least. Although there are some suggestions we can reach herd immunity without, the chances of breakthroughs at schools are huge. | | | |
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| Non-Scientific Scientists on 18:09 - May 20 with 795 views | Professor |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 17:38 - May 20 by Scotia |
I know what you mean.
I've sort of felt the same about Jeremy Farrar and Christine Pagel. They seem to be quite pessimistic.
Unfortunately for everyone they seem, Neil Ferguson included, to have been the most accurate. |
Christina Pagel has been pretty spot on. She is t far from convinced of a third wave. | | | |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 19:19 - May 20 with 764 views | Jack123 |
I don't think a lot of what this Andrew Hayward says.
This was a few months ago.. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/uk-more-less-back-normal-23440517
For people in Andrew Hayward position to make statements like We are at the start of a third wave of coronavirus, well if what he predicts doesn't happen, for starters take the bloody prof title off him, also banned from giving any interviews, and if I had my way 6-12 months in the clink.
But my guess is he will face no consequences at all for spreading this vile scaremongering. |  |
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| Non-Scientific Scientists on 21:20 - May 20 with 715 views | Scotia |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 19:19 - May 20 by Jack123 |
I don't think a lot of what this Andrew Hayward says.
This was a few months ago.. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/uk-more-less-back-normal-23440517
For people in Andrew Hayward position to make statements like We are at the start of a third wave of coronavirus, well if what he predicts doesn't happen, for starters take the bloody prof title off him, also banned from giving any interviews, and if I had my way 6-12 months in the clink.
But my guess is he will face no consequences at all for spreading this vile scaremongering. |
This is the problem.
He's said today that he thinks another wave is starting, it is in some areas and could be across the nation. That wave could still be quite small, but he was probably better off saying nothing.
What will make that wave bigger and further restrictions needed or extended is people not being vaccinated. | | | |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 22:17 - May 20 with 700 views | Jack123 |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 21:20 - May 20 by Scotia |
This is the problem.
He's said today that he thinks another wave is starting, it is in some areas and could be across the nation. That wave could still be quite small, but he was probably better off saying nothing.
What will make that wave bigger and further restrictions needed or extended is people not being vaccinated. |
Yes, does annoy me when I see headlines like that
One day headlines like, Indian Variant may stop reopening on Jun21st, a few days later sage scientists say Indian variant may not be as bad as first thought.
Sage and other people of science should not speculate, the media are to blame, but they are giving them the ammo to do it. | |
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| Non-Scientific Scientists on 22:31 - May 20 with 690 views | hobo |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 22:17 - May 20 by Jack123 |
Yes, does annoy me when I see headlines like that
One day headlines like, Indian Variant may stop reopening on Jun21st, a few days later sage scientists say Indian variant may not be as bad as first thought.
Sage and other people of science should not speculate, the media are to blame, but they are giving them the ammo to do it. |
You've got to ignore the media scientists and know what's right or wrong. Viruses mutate in order to keep going. If they kill their host they will die out. So ultimately, the mutations will become more contagious, but less lethal. The Indian variant, and every other variant the media and government wants to use to keep us in fear, is nothing at all to be worried about |  | | |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 00:18 - May 21 with 648 views | Jack123 |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 21:20 - May 20 by Scotia |
This is the problem.
He's said today that he thinks another wave is starting, it is in some areas and could be across the nation. That wave could still be quite small, but he was probably better off saying nothing.
What will make that wave bigger and further restrictions needed or extended is people not being vaccinated. |
Looking at your last sentence Scotia with regards to people not vaxxed will make waves bigger, I don't get that?
It just does not compute?
I will wait till a good while yet.
And I don't mean to undermine your concerns, but not for me not at the moment.
And for me personally, I hate it they are vaccinating our kids..
My missis, fully vaxxed, still won't go out!! I hope the ones that created this fear, pay in the future. [Post edited 21 May 2021 0:21]
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| Non-Scientific Scientists on 07:57 - May 21 with 590 views | Scotia |
| Non-Scientific Scientists on 00:18 - May 21 by Jack123 |
Looking at your last sentence Scotia with regards to people not vaxxed will make waves bigger, I don't get that?
It just does not compute?
I will wait till a good while yet.
And I don't mean to undermine your concerns, but not for me not at the moment.
And for me personally, I hate it they are vaccinating our kids..
My missis, fully vaxxed, still won't go out!! I hope the ones that created this fear, pay in the future. [Post edited 21 May 2021 0:21]
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Yes non vaxxed people absolutely make any wave bigger. The vaccines reduce transmission and hospitalisation. The more transmission the bigger the wave.
That is why we may vaccinate younger people too.
One of the measures for reducing restrictions is pressure on the NHS. So the less vaccinated a population is the more need for restrictions.
Being vaccinated is your choice but refusing it is contributing to living like this for longer. Do you want that?
The virus has created this fear, unfortunately those who report more pessimistic scenarios have tended to be more accurate. | | | |
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