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How Many Points Do Southampton Need For Promotion
Thursday, 26th Oct 2023 13:00

A dozen years ago we were embarking on the first of two consecutive promotions, back then I pointed out that it was going to be all about grinding out points and monitoring our progress over the short medium and long term, so time for a recap.

Getting promotion is all about putting runs together and if they are not winning streaks, it is about staying unbeaten, I said this a decade or so ago as we won two consecutive promotions, it is about looking back over the past 3, 4, 6 or even 10 games and seeing how you are doing and if you are still on track.

Generally to make the play off's in the Championship you need to get between 75-80 points, although often it can be as low as 70., back in 2011/12 in our last promotion campaign we went up in second place with 88 points and the 6th spot had 75.

So to get automatic promotion you need somewhere around 1.91 points per game.

But our first target is the play offs and 75 points is an average of 1.63 points a game and that is a good starting figure.

So we are currently on 21 points from 13 games, 1.62 per game almost bang on what we need to make the play offs if we continue at this rate, so a solid start to the season if we are to make the play offs.

But how are we doing if we take the 3/4/6/10 game principle, the last 3 games have seen us take 5 points that's 1.67 per game, the last 4 games is 8 points, easy to do the maths there and take a medium view at 6 games, that takes us back to the defeat at Boro and in that time we have gained 11 points, that is 1.83 per game.

The long term of 10 games sees us having amassed 16 points in that time, just a little short of our 1.63 per game target.

So although there is still much work to do, we are moving forward, and I haven't even bothered considering making the top two at the moment, we just have to keep getting an average of 1.63 per game and using that as the benchmark.

Of course this is fluid, if we keep getting over 1.63 the points target will reduce, keep beating it though and it will come down and we will start to haul back the top two.

In many respects this is the only benchmark to judge our season on, there will be games when we will lose and it will seem everything is going to pot, but if we look at how many points over the last 3/4/6/10 games we have got it will show where we are going right or wrong.

So although a few have been predicting doom and gloom and that we will finish in the bottom half of the table, the reality is that we are on course for the play offs and more to the point we are now starting to put a run together and find our form and getting stronger.

The truth is that if we had just taken two points in that four game losing streak we would be third now, we can't be that bad a team if we are that close, if we had just hit our target of 1.63 then we would be only a point behind second place.

There are fine margins in place, but we are moving forward and adapting and with a top striker still to make his debut we have many reasons to look forward with optimism.

In a promotion campaign, performances don't matter, when you score your goals doesn't matter, all that matters is relentlessly grinding down those around you by beating the 1.63 points per game average, you keep doing that and suddenly the table looks a far happier place.

So Saints are progressing forward just keep that figure in your head of 1.63 points per game and that shows whether we are on or off track no matter how many games you apply it to.

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SanMichele added 14:14 - Oct 26
But reaching the playoffs guarantees nothing - it's a knockout lottery. Surely automatic promotion has to be the aim?

SanMichele added 14:17 - Oct 26
But reaching the playoffs guarantees nothing - it's a knockout lottery. Surely automatic promotion has to be the aim?

Bowlercow added 14:22 - Oct 26
I like stats but they really mean nothing
For instance win the next 6 games we will then be averaging 2 points per game

I don't see any problem with a top six end of season position possibly with Borough, Leeds and ANO

felly1 added 15:25 - Oct 26
We look no where near good enough for a top 2 spot.
Playoffs, at best this season.

IanRC added 16:27 - Oct 26
If we keep surrendering points as we have in the last two games then there is no chance of playoffs let alone automatic promotion.

SaintPaulVW added 17:25 - Oct 26
After such a poor last season, really can't see the problem with being in the playoff places after 13 games, I hope we improve but not too sure what benefit is obtained from focussing on how we have actually got our points to date. Do those who do, take such a close interest in other sides?

It's a league so not all games go your way and positions will shift over time. Treating every game like it's a cup round is just daft. Since when was a point away from home a bad thing?


YosemiteSaint added 17:33 - Oct 26
It sounds counterintuitive to take this stance, but I'm pleased with where we are in the division we're in. The bottom 5 in the EPL are off to historically poor starts, and we'd be among them were we there. I'd rather be playing flowing football in the Championship than worrying about each and every kick in trying to stay up in the Prem. Because, if we do reascend into the EPL, that's exactly what awaits us.

sandywelsh added 20:14 - Oct 26
How Many Points Do Southampton Need For Promotion? A lot more than they are getting now!! Just look at Leicester and Ipswich.

SanMarco added 22:59 - Oct 26
An easier way (without any maths or stats or anything) is to look at the table. We are fifth so we are on course for the play-offs, if we were 7th we wouldn't be. This of course doesn't take account of quality of opposition played but then nor does the stats approach...

mascott514 added 23:26 - Oct 26
Thats what I was thinking.....theres a table to help you!

JoeEgg added 07:45 - Oct 27
Try telling Adams, Armstrong and Mara your calculations based on pointless statistics; Ipswich and Leicester are playing to their strengths - WE ARE NOT. You dont need statistics to remind you of that. Both Adams and Armstrong stopped making runs when they realised you are not allowed under the Martin system to play balls over the top. The strikers dont score because they dont get the service they would thrive on. SIMPLE.

AgrellaSFC added 08:30 - Oct 27
I can't see Ipswich maintaining second place for long and so second place can be anyone's. Whether we're good enough at the moment is clearly no but anything could happen.

SWH1748 added 11:19 - Oct 28
AngrellaSFC agree withe the exception of are we good enough. IMO yes we are, but in reality do we want to be cos if we go up one hell of an overhaul would be needed just to survive.
Probably best just missing out and improving next season !

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