Rumarn Burrell’s absence has shown the flaws in QPR’s current system without a striker of his profile at the top of the formation – welcome, then, Burrell’s non-union Coventry equivalent Justin Obikwu.

Facts

Justin Obikwu is a 6ft 4ins tall Brent-born striker who is joining QPR from Coventry City for a reported fee in the region of £500k.

Obikwu joined the Sky Blues as a teenager from our nearby non-league outfit Harefield United and signed his first professional contract there in the summer of 2023.

After a first half of the season spent in Coventry’s U21 side he spent the second half of 2023/24 on loan at League Two Grimsby. He made ten starts and six sub appearances for the Blundell park outfit, scoring three goals including his first ever professional strike in a 1-1 away draw at Sutton.

That, and goals for Cov in pre-season against Port Vale and Stevenage, was enough for Town to take him on a full season loan for 2024/25. Manager David Artell said: “We’ve done unbelievably well to get him back because his progression has been so rapid since he was here. He could have gone to four League One clubs, so the fact that he’s chosen us, ahead of them, is a real bonus. “ He went on to start 15 league and cup games and made seven sub appearances with seven goals scored, including a brace in a 3-0 away win at Morecambe and a hot streak of three in three against Bromley, Carlisle and Doncaster in February. His progress was interrupted two thirds of the way through the campaign by a car accident after that game at Donny.

Despite the relatively limited appearance record his performances were enough for League One Lincoln to beat their near neighbours to the loan signature for 2025/26 and in this first half of this season he’s started five times and come off the bench on 16 occasions for the Imps. He’s scored in wins against Luton, Peterborough and a defeat at Wycombe for Michael Skubala’s promotion chasers.

Obikwu represents Trinidad and Tobago at international level, making his competitive debut against Curacao in World Cup qualifying in September and so far winning four caps.

He now joins QPR permanently on a contract of REDACTED length. He’s effectively being replaced at Lincoln by Alfie Lloyd, who has been recalled from a loan at Orient and sent to Sincil Bank instead.

Analysis – Zac Bowles @TheLoftInsights

QPR have picked up where they left off last summer with another signing of a promising striker with League One experience, and as with the Kone and Burrell pick ups there’s plenty to like about this one. Justin Obikwu has spent the first half of the 2025/26 season on loan at League One Lincoln Town, where he made 17 appearances (including four starts), contributing three goals and one assist.

Many comparisons have been drawn between Obikwu and summer arrival Burrell, and looking at the underlying numbers, it is clear to see why.

Obikwu and Burrell share a very similar profile; highly mobile, eager to press, instinctive goalscorers. So, let’s break down the numbers.

Goal Threat

There are two standout statistics that demonstrate Obikwu’s goalscoring ability; (1) NPxG/90, which measures the quality of the chances Obikwu takes, and (2) xGOT/90, which measures the quality of his shooting from these positions.

Obikwu’s high NPxG/90 (0.44, top 21% of League One strikers) indicates how he consistently gets himself into dangerous areas, producing high-quality goalscoring opportunities.

From these threatening positions, Obikwu shoots well, as we can see from his strong xGOT/90 performance (0.48, top 24% of League One strikers). Looking at his goal against Luton, we can see this strong finishing ability on display as Obikwu converts beautifully from a 1-on-1 situation. Against Wycombe, Obikwu combines his ability to find space in the box and finish well to score with his first touch of the ball, coming on as a substitute just moments before.

On top of this, Obikwu’s strength with both feet adds an element of unpredictability and versatility to his finishing, allowing him to capitalise on chances from many different positions.

General Play: In Possession

On the ball, Obikwu looks confident. He is not afraid to receive the ball and drive forward, or operate in tight areas. However, his low dribble success rate (38.5%, bottom 53% among League One strikers) indicates that his dribbling output needs to improve if he wants to develop his game.

Playing alongside another striker in a 4-4-2, Obikwu is confident linking up with his teammates to create chances; a tidy one-two earned him an assist against Luton. This is a really important element of his game, producing 1.8 chances/90 (top 7% among League One strikers). In this regard, he outperforms Burrell (1.02 chances/90) statistically.

However, it is off the ball where I think Obikwu really shines. He is incredibly eager to run in behind, constantly looking to drift into the wide spaces to receive through balls.

Looking at his touch map (source: Opta), we can see how he moves across the front line and into these wide areas.

Given Stephan’s desire for his team to counter-attack directly, QPR play to Obikwu’s strengths well. By constantly threatening to run in behind, Obikwu stretches and disrupts the defence, who must adjust or else risk allowing Obikwu in on goal, where he is incredibly dangerous due to his finishing ability.

One way in which Obikwu can improve is his ability to hold his run, as he is often caught offside (1.25 offsides/90). Due to his superior pace and finishing, he can afford to hold his run in order to make the most of these chances.

Out of Possession

Another way in which Obikwu suits Stephan’s preferences is through his work rate off the ball. Obikwu, like Burrell, is a constant menace for defences, pressing with high energy and persistence. While Stephan does not favour a high-pressing system, we have seen how Burrell can utilise his pace to pressure defenders, and I am sure that Obikwu will fulfil a similar role, particularly if coming off the bench against tired defenders.

Overall

Looking at the numbers and watching Obikwu in action has made me increasingly excited about this signing, as I must admit I knew very little about him when rumours started swirling.

Given his similarity in profile to Burrell, there may be some expectation that Obikwu will adjust to the Championship equally as quickly. However, having played just 499 minutes for Lincoln this season, these numbers must be taken with a pinch of salt, and it is important to ease our expectations. That being said, with a little patience, Obikwu has the potential to develop into a real goal threat for QPR.

Reaction

“When I heard the name QPR, my ears sprung up. I think everything that’s been described to me, from the staff to the fans, the stadium and the training ground, everything about it aligns with my development and where I want to be. I think I needed a bit of a change and another stepping stone in my development,” he explained, while working under Julien Stéphan is also something he is excited by as he aims to realise his potential. When you look at some of the names he's helped produce, it's something that is really encouraging to me. I'm fast, powerful, tall and athletic. Honestly, I just try to work my hardest for the team and I can't wait to show the fans what I'm about, and hopefully they're impressed.” - Justin Obikwu

“Justin is a super exciting profile of player, who combines raw speed with an elegant finishing style. He’s an intelligent lad with a real commitment to developing himself further. We are excited to welcome him.” - Christian Nourry

Opinion

Given Obikwu’s profile – 21 years old, 50 appearances in Leagues One and Two, untried at Championship level – this looks firmly like a signing with an eye on tomorrow rather than today.

And, in as much as we can tell, a pretty good bet, albeit with a pretty punchy transfer fee. A good physical specimen, lots of growth potential, high ceiling, local boy (although, again, it’s a player escaping from local non-league that we’re than having to pay to bring back), nice and quick… No guarantees but exactly the sort of player we should be buying etc etc.

He’s in the green for everything you’d want on FOTMOB – above average for goals, xG, xGOT from the shots he takes, same for assists, xAssists and creative passing. He continues this season’s theme of adding spped and athleticism to a team that we’ve previously criticised for being too nice, too slow, and too easy to play against. Who wants to mark the speedy, 6ft 4ins centre forward? Not me.

The lads at Grimsby’s DN35 Podcast “really grew to like him. Strong powerful but streaky. He has everything you want in a player at your level but I doubt he’s nowhere near the finished article. Could see him playing a bit part but we desperately wanted him back this season. He was fantastic for us last season until the car accident.”

I wonder, though, whether we might see him involved a bit sooner than the ‘one for the future’ billing. QPR have been struggling of late as Rumarn Burrell tired and then, seemingly inevitably, got injured. Without their ten-goal top scorer, Rangers are struggling to score at all. They’ve won one of seven games, that against divisional whipping boy Sheff Wed, and have scored one goal or fewer in each of the other six. The last two have finished 0-0 with just two shots on target in each, to go with none in the loss at West Brom (beaten 5-0 at home by Norwich this week) and three at lowly Portsmouth on Boxing Day.

The R’s are struggling to even get up the pitch now the team’s natural out ball has gone. There is nobody up front with Burrell’s pace who can chase in behind onto those balls we put in to turn opposition full backs around. Without the ball our press is damaged by the Jamaican’s absence, and with it we can’t consistently get into the opposition half and stay there. This was particularly painful in the two away games this week.

As Zac has pointed out in his analysis, a lot of his underlying numbers are spookily similar to the ones we saw with Burrell at Burton Albion, he’s most at home playing high up in a 4-4-2 or at least with another strike partner, and he never tires of running in behind using his pace.

Look, he’s never played at this level, wasn’t an automatic starter at either Grimsby or Lincoln, and has fewer than 500 minutes under his belt this season. So, as ever, it’ll require, time and patience. But with Burrell not pencilled in for a return until March, what use could a giant, enthusiastic and quick young centre forward be in the coming weeks? Quite a bit more than QPR perhaps intended, I reckon, however inexperienced and raw he may be. (Probably loan him straight back out now, knowing my tipping history).

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Pictures - Reuters Connect