| Coronavirus figures 11:40 - Jun 12 with 4478 views | exhmrc1 |
Here is the evidence showing the Wag's policy is right.
Area - likely reproduction number (range of possibility) - Doubling/halving time for the number of new cases
East Midlands - 0.9 (0.7-1.1) - halves in 27 days
East of England - 0.7 (0.5-0.9) - halves in 9.7 days
London - 0.8 (0.6 - 1.1) - halves in 20 days
North East - 0.7 (0.5-1) - halves in 8. days
North West - 0.8 (0.7-1) - halves in 17 days
Northern Ireland - 0.9 (0.6-1.2) - halves in 27 days
Scotland - 0.9 (0.6-1.1) - halves in 25 days
South East - 0.9 (0.7-1) - halves in 21 days
South West - 1 (0.7-1.3) - doubles in 90 days
Wales - 0.7 (0.5-0.8) - halves in 7.8 days
West Midlands - 0.8 (0.7-1) - halves in 18 days
Yorkshire and The Humber - 0.8 (0.7-1) - halves in 16 days
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| Coronavirus figures on 15:35 - Jun 13 with 601 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Coronavirus figures on 15:21 - Jun 13 by londonlisa2001 |
Because as you’ve just quoted, the R number is a function of number of cases as well. As cases dwindle the R number changes on one or two people being infected.
And the death rate, as I’ve explained, isn’t what governments are controlling. It’s the infection rate. If there are less people infected in Hammersmith but more deaths, there’s nothing that policy could have done to change that, once the infection has taken place.
I didn’t dispute the R numbers - I disputed the halving / doubling calculations (as I also previously said) which showed three regions with the same R number having different halving times in days.
I’m sorry, but the way you’re extrapolating the data makes no sense. It’s far too simplistic to concentrate on just one measure. |
I think you forgot to admit that HMRC1 is right. |  |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| Coronavirus figures on 15:44 - Jun 13 with 580 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Coronavirus figures on 15:35 - Jun 13 by Kilkennyjack |
I think you forgot to admit that HMRC1 is right. |
About what?
I can’t be bothered to discuss it properly if you’re just going to be a child.
Think what you think.
But you still haven’t ever answered my very simple question to you of a couple of weeks ago.
Do you need to go out to work to earn money for your home, food, family? | | | |
| Coronavirus figures on 15:47 - Jun 13 with 568 views | Lohengrin |
| Coronavirus figures on 15:44 - Jun 13 by londonlisa2001 |
About what?
I can’t be bothered to discuss it properly if you’re just going to be a child.
Think what you think.
But you still haven’t ever answered my very simple question to you of a couple of weeks ago.
Do you need to go out to work to earn money for your home, food, family? |
Most around here never stopped. Furloughing is something we’ve seen on the telly or heard about on the radio. The only difference I’ve seen is we can’t have a pint on the way home. |  |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| Coronavirus figures on 15:54 - Jun 13 with 554 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Coronavirus figures on 15:47 - Jun 13 by Lohengrin |
Most around here never stopped. Furloughing is something we’ve seen on the telly or heard about on the radio. The only difference I’ve seen is we can’t have a pint on the way home. |
Bollox.
No one in retail has continued to work. Hospitality. Restaurants, bars, cinemas, theatres, clubs & pubs. Many people in South Wales are employed by the public sector (DVLA, teachers, council employees) and haven’t continued to work as normal although many will have continued to receive full pay let alone furlough money.
316,000 people in Wales are on furlough (official numbers have been released). That’s a large percentage of the Welsh workforce.
Essential workers throughout the UK have continued to go to work. Not just in South Wales. Others have been able to work from home and haven’t stopped.
You don’t half talk some nonsense. | | | |
| Coronavirus figures on 15:58 - Jun 13 with 551 views | Lohengrin |
| Coronavirus figures on 15:54 - Jun 13 by londonlisa2001 |
Bollox.
No one in retail has continued to work. Hospitality. Restaurants, bars, cinemas, theatres, clubs & pubs. Many people in South Wales are employed by the public sector (DVLA, teachers, council employees) and haven’t continued to work as normal although many will have continued to receive full pay let alone furlough money.
316,000 people in Wales are on furlough (official numbers have been released). That’s a large percentage of the Welsh workforce.
Essential workers throughout the UK have continued to go to work. Not just in South Wales. Others have been able to work from home and haven’t stopped.
You don’t half talk some nonsense. |
Most I know work in industry, Lis. I was nights last night and nights the night before, to pun the song.
Everybody held their breath when the saturation media coverage announced the arrival of Covid. They held it and held it then nothing happened in these parts. | |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| Coronavirus figures on 16:08 - Jun 13 with 536 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Coronavirus figures on 15:58 - Jun 13 by Lohengrin |
Most I know work in industry, Lis. I was nights last night and nights the night before, to pun the song.
Everybody held their breath when the saturation media coverage announced the arrival of Covid. They held it and held it then nothing happened in these parts. |
You work in an essential industry so obviously have continued, same as water, gas, electric etc.
It’s the same everywhere. | | | |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:10 - Jun 13 with 532 views | exhmrc1 |
| Coronavirus figures on 15:21 - Jun 13 by londonlisa2001 |
Because as you’ve just quoted, the R number is a function of number of cases as well. As cases dwindle the R number changes on one or two people being infected.
And the death rate, as I’ve explained, isn’t what governments are controlling. It’s the infection rate. If there are less people infected in Hammersmith but more deaths, there’s nothing that policy could have done to change that, once the infection has taken place.
I didn’t dispute the R numbers - I disputed the halving / doubling calculations (as I also previously said) which showed three regions with the same R number having different halving times in days.
I’m sorry, but the way you’re extrapolating the data makes no sense. It’s far too simplistic to concentrate on just one measure. |
I am not an expert on these statistics but the likes of ONS and Sage are. I trust their figures over yours. The figures have been rounded and will give reasons for the difference. 0.8 can be anything from 0.76 to 0.84 as an example and they have used actual figures to make the calculations of the number of days hence they have different numbers and you really should have been able to work that out. These are independent statistics not yours or mine calculated by experts in their fields and who have all the figures on hand. It is a shame that you try to argue and dispute these people's findings who clearly know better than either of us. | | | |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:15 - Jun 13 with 523 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:10 - Jun 13 by exhmrc1 |
I am not an expert on these statistics but the likes of ONS and Sage are. I trust their figures over yours. The figures have been rounded and will give reasons for the difference. 0.8 can be anything from 0.76 to 0.84 as an example and they have used actual figures to make the calculations of the number of days hence they have different numbers and you really should have been able to work that out. These are independent statistics not yours or mine calculated by experts in their fields and who have all the figures on hand. It is a shame that you try to argue and dispute these people's findings who clearly know better than either of us. |
As I’ve said, the numbers are one part of a huge jigsaw of evidence that’s being used.
They include numbers from care homes, hospital settings as well as the community.
And the R number alone is irrelevant without the infection numbers as well.
If 1 person has it and transmits to 1 other person the R number is 1.
If 100,000 people have it and give it to 80,000 people, the R number is 0.8.
The first scenario is far safer in the community than the second.
If you can’t see that, and I’ve explained it before, I give up. It’s pointless. | | | |
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| Coronavirus figures on 16:20 - Jun 13 with 517 views | Lohengrin |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:08 - Jun 13 by londonlisa2001 |
You work in an essential industry so obviously have continued, same as water, gas, electric etc.
It’s the same everywhere. |
You take most notice of what you see around you, Lis. I’ve worked right through, so has the wife and both the girls. My neighbours either side and the house across the road are all up at the crack of.
Our cul-de-sac deserves a mention in dispatches.  | |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| Coronavirus figures on 16:28 - Jun 13 with 503 views | jack_lord |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:20 - Jun 13 by Lohengrin |
You take most notice of what you see around you, Lis. I’ve worked right through, so has the wife and both the girls. My neighbours either side and the house across the road are all up at the crack of.
Our cul-de-sac deserves a mention in dispatches. |
Our cul de sac has about 20 houses. 4 people, including my wife work in the NHs and I have worked throughout. All the rest are furloughed or retired (except 1 who is working from home). Plenty of bbq's going on when we have all been coming home.
My cul de sac should not be mentioned in dispatches ;) |  |
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| Coronavirus figures on 16:29 - Jun 13 with 501 views | DJack |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:20 - Jun 13 by Lohengrin |
You take most notice of what you see around you, Lis. I’ve worked right through, so has the wife and both the girls. My neighbours either side and the house across the road are all up at the crack of.
Our cul-de-sac deserves a mention in dispatches. |
As far as I can see those around me are at home...even the soldier next door. |  |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Coronavirus figures on 16:31 - Jun 13 with 496 views | Lohengrin |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:28 - Jun 13 by jack_lord |
Our cul de sac has about 20 houses. 4 people, including my wife work in the NHs and I have worked throughout. All the rest are furloughed or retired (except 1 who is working from home). Plenty of bbq's going on when we have all been coming home.
My cul de sac should not be mentioned in dispatches ;) |
I bet you love that, don’t you? You do your bit while your pals get their feet up in the garden and enjoy the Sun!  | |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| Coronavirus figures on 16:36 - Jun 13 with 489 views | Lohengrin |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:29 - Jun 13 by DJack |
As far as I can see those around me are at home...even the soldier next door. |
Almost all serving soldiers are. I’ve got one demolishing my fridge as I type this.
That makes good sense. The authorities can hardly ring the alarm bell then have whole battalions living on top of one another. He’s off to Iraq soon though, I’ve told him to make the most, the beer’s on me. | |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| Coronavirus figures on 16:37 - Jun 13 with 486 views | Swanjaxs |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:20 - Jun 13 by Lohengrin |
You take most notice of what you see around you, Lis. I’ve worked right through, so has the wife and both the girls. My neighbours either side and the house across the road are all up at the crack of.
Our cul-de-sac deserves a mention in dispatches. |
You must have a few bob to live in a cul-de-sac  |  |
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| Coronavirus figures on 16:37 - Jun 13 with 483 views | DJack |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:36 - Jun 13 by Lohengrin |
Almost all serving soldiers are. I’ve got one demolishing my fridge as I type this.
That makes good sense. The authorities can hardly ring the alarm bell then have whole battalions living on top of one another. He’s off to Iraq soon though, I’ve told him to make the most, the beer’s on me. |
Aye but as I said all others around me are at home. | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Coronavirus figures on 16:38 - Jun 13 with 482 views | Lohengrin |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:37 - Jun 13 by Swanjaxs |
You must have a few bob to live in a cul-de-sac |
I wish!  | |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| Coronavirus figures on 16:41 - Jun 13 with 477 views | Lohengrin |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:37 - Jun 13 by DJack |
Aye but as I said all others around me are at home. |
Not here. We’re carrying your lot. I expect a pint and a slap on the back should our paths cross.  | |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| Coronavirus figures on 16:42 - Jun 13 with 473 views | jack_lord |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:31 - Jun 13 by Lohengrin |
I bet you love that, don’t you? You do your bit while your pals get their feet up in the garden and enjoy the Sun! |
I can tell you it doesn't go down to well | |
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| Coronavirus figures on 16:44 - Jun 13 with 470 views | DJack |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:41 - Jun 13 by Lohengrin |
Not here. We’re carrying your lot. I expect a pint and a slap on the back should our paths cross. |
I'm still working so you can fck off! | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Coronavirus figures on 16:47 - Jun 13 with 463 views | Lohengrin |
| Coronavirus figures on 16:44 - Jun 13 by DJack |
I'm still working so you can fck off! |
Tight arse! | |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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