| Exam Results 'Scandal' 13:53 - Aug 19 with 2350 views | Kerouac |
When will the people we pay to govern grow a set of bollocks?
Nobody was 'cheated'. Teachers predicted grades that the pupils wouldn't have achieved, same as every year.
75% of pupils didn't achieve what was predicted last time out.
Only 40% of pupils weren't given what they were predicted this year.
Results across the board are up...
...and yet still we have this pathetic pretense that pupils have been cheated somehow.
...and of course it is the usual suspects spreading these lies; The Labour Party etc.
...when will the people we pay to govern grow a set of balls and face these idiots down?
Discuss. |  |
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| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:40 - Aug 20 with 532 views | exhmrc1 |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:21 - Aug 20 by Professor |
Possibly it would have barred RSS from any public criticism of Ofqual,
DoE or the private company involved in the fiasco- another contract awarded without
Open tender- cronyism strikes again? Whatever the reason Williamson should go. Can’t imagine Thatcher putting up with this. And where is the PM? Scotland, Mustique,
An oligarchs yacht or the Priory. All have been suggested.
Thankfully my daughter was in the 60% unaffected by the issues, though the rumours before and
After have done little for her mental state. A year off getting more
Experience, then Child Nursing in 2021 |
The problem by allowing nearly double the students getting the highest grades is that there simply the room to house them. For example Durham university has a number of colleges which house first years. Once all those places have been awarded where do the extra students live as a smallish city there isnt the extra rooms. The end result is that thousands possibly 100s of thousands will clog the universities for next year meaning fewer spaces for next year. As a result universities will end up increasing grades for next year and those students are suffering a double effect.
I dont agree about Starmer. Yes it is about opposing but any system you propose has to be workable and the system he proposed isnt. He has gone down in my estimation.
I dont know about the English position but here in Wales there was nothing wrong with the original system Caerphilly has 2 of the 10 most deprived areas in Wales. Blaeanau Gwent has 41 of its 47 wards in the top half of most deprived areas and Newport is the county with the largest percentage of deprived areas yet Gwent College which covers these areas had record A*-C figures. Swansea has 5 of the top 30 deprived areas. Gower College Swansea has its best ever figures.
The sad result of these changes are that next years university applicants are going at a huge disadvantage as places will be blocked in a way that has never happened previously. This years students are being advantaged over every other years students and gutless politicians call that fair. Fair to who. |  | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:41 - Aug 20 with 532 views | Professor |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:27 - Aug 20 by Gwyn737 |
Good news for your girl, Prof.
Was the extra years experience planned or an outcome of this mess? |
Thank you- yes. She failed to get a place for midwifery and feedback was she needed more experience. Having the grades (A* AB) in hand for typical BBB entry takes pressure away.
Slightly changing her aim towards ‘better’ courses as was concerned she was
Going to drop to BBC. Thankfully two had significant coursework which is a strength to a grafter rather than academic mind. Hard work certainly paid off | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:41 - Aug 20 with 531 views | chad |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 16:27 - Aug 19 by Gwyn737 |
It’s an omnishambles.
If anyone is genuinely interested in how we got to this, Sam Freedman on Twitter is fantastic (very balanced and apolitical.)
His original thread is here but all his work since results day has been outstanding. |
I read at least part of this and noted he seemed to be bringing up a point that already struck me.
If the complaint as I heard it, was the fact, that more socially disadvantaged schools were most downgraded, then presumably this was because their teachers had overestimated more compared with the norm for previous years performances.
Now on average it would seem the most fair in the method of smoothing, to get a realistic number of grades compared with previous years, to downgrade the schools most, that gave the the most inflated grades compared with their actual past performances.
But two major things stood out to me in relation to that
1. It presumably was not including any independently demonstrable, measurable increase in the school standards (although I am unsure how that could have been done, except from exam results)
2. And most importantly. top grade students are top grade, if the socially disadvantaged schools were generally the lower performing schools in terms of exam results. They had the most capacity to overestimate. Of course there is far less capacity to overestimate top grade students. So IF the algorithm was not sensitive to different smoothing over different grades, and instead made a general reduction across lower performing schools in relation to teacher overestimates. Then it is the best performing candidates in those schools that will have been most disadvantaged.
The whole thing was impossible really, and can only make an attempt to be most generally fair.
I think most teachers do a great job in very difficult circumstances. But if this was my own children I would be very unhappy, as I experienced teacher underestimates against exam performance, downstreaming and even public mocking, against young people who performed at the highest level at university.
The sad outcome is that all young people, regardless of intellect, or how hard they worked (or would have done for the actual exam) will be seen as part of an anomaly year, that was awarded grades beyond their ability, because on the whole the grades have been massively inflated. |  | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:45 - Aug 20 with 509 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:41 - Aug 20 by chad |
I read at least part of this and noted he seemed to be bringing up a point that already struck me.
If the complaint as I heard it, was the fact, that more socially disadvantaged schools were most downgraded, then presumably this was because their teachers had overestimated more compared with the norm for previous years performances.
Now on average it would seem the most fair in the method of smoothing, to get a realistic number of grades compared with previous years, to downgrade the schools most, that gave the the most inflated grades compared with their actual past performances.
But two major things stood out to me in relation to that
1. It presumably was not including any independently demonstrable, measurable increase in the school standards (although I am unsure how that could have been done, except from exam results)
2. And most importantly. top grade students are top grade, if the socially disadvantaged schools were generally the lower performing schools in terms of exam results. They had the most capacity to overestimate. Of course there is far less capacity to overestimate top grade students. So IF the algorithm was not sensitive to different smoothing over different grades, and instead made a general reduction across lower performing schools in relation to teacher overestimates. Then it is the best performing candidates in those schools that will have been most disadvantaged.
The whole thing was impossible really, and can only make an attempt to be most generally fair.
I think most teachers do a great job in very difficult circumstances. But if this was my own children I would be very unhappy, as I experienced teacher underestimates against exam performance, downstreaming and even public mocking, against young people who performed at the highest level at university.
The sad outcome is that all young people, regardless of intellect, or how hard they worked (or would have done for the actual exam) will be seen as part of an anomaly year, that was awarded grades beyond their ability, because on the whole the grades have been massively inflated. |
GCSE results just released. The pass rate has just increased from 70% to 79%. This is a grade inflation of 12.87%. I guess teachers have over estimated grades but of course teachers know best. | |
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| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:48 - Aug 20 with 518 views | Gwyn737 |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:41 - Aug 20 by chad |
I read at least part of this and noted he seemed to be bringing up a point that already struck me.
If the complaint as I heard it, was the fact, that more socially disadvantaged schools were most downgraded, then presumably this was because their teachers had overestimated more compared with the norm for previous years performances.
Now on average it would seem the most fair in the method of smoothing, to get a realistic number of grades compared with previous years, to downgrade the schools most, that gave the the most inflated grades compared with their actual past performances.
But two major things stood out to me in relation to that
1. It presumably was not including any independently demonstrable, measurable increase in the school standards (although I am unsure how that could have been done, except from exam results)
2. And most importantly. top grade students are top grade, if the socially disadvantaged schools were generally the lower performing schools in terms of exam results. They had the most capacity to overestimate. Of course there is far less capacity to overestimate top grade students. So IF the algorithm was not sensitive to different smoothing over different grades, and instead made a general reduction across lower performing schools in relation to teacher overestimates. Then it is the best performing candidates in those schools that will have been most disadvantaged.
The whole thing was impossible really, and can only make an attempt to be most generally fair.
I think most teachers do a great job in very difficult circumstances. But if this was my own children I would be very unhappy, as I experienced teacher underestimates against exam performance, downstreaming and even public mocking, against young people who performed at the highest level at university.
The sad outcome is that all young people, regardless of intellect, or how hard they worked (or would have done for the actual exam) will be seen as part of an anomaly year, that was awarded grades beyond their ability, because on the whole the grades have been massively inflated. |
Spot on.
It was never going to be a perfect system but it would have helped to try to take into account ‘outliers’, in this case it does seem to be the best students in disadvantaged areas are disproportionately hit as you suggest. | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:52 - Aug 20 with 513 views | Professor |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:40 - Aug 20 by exhmrc1 |
The problem by allowing nearly double the students getting the highest grades is that there simply the room to house them. For example Durham university has a number of colleges which house first years. Once all those places have been awarded where do the extra students live as a smallish city there isnt the extra rooms. The end result is that thousands possibly 100s of thousands will clog the universities for next year meaning fewer spaces for next year. As a result universities will end up increasing grades for next year and those students are suffering a double effect.
I dont agree about Starmer. Yes it is about opposing but any system you propose has to be workable and the system he proposed isnt. He has gone down in my estimation.
I dont know about the English position but here in Wales there was nothing wrong with the original system Caerphilly has 2 of the 10 most deprived areas in Wales. Blaeanau Gwent has 41 of its 47 wards in the top half of most deprived areas and Newport is the county with the largest percentage of deprived areas yet Gwent College which covers these areas had record A*-C figures. Swansea has 5 of the top 30 deprived areas. Gower College Swansea has its best ever figures.
The sad result of these changes are that next years university applicants are going at a huge disadvantage as places will be blocked in a way that has never happened previously. This years students are being advantaged over every other years students and gutless politicians call that fair. Fair to who. |
Wales still has modular A Levels, so more basis for fair assessment-
Not the case in England and there seems little doubt a significant number were downgraded. My daughter’s school was largely unaffected.
All seemed to get CAG and what prior (two rounds) of mock exams suggested. Across the local authority border in Wirral there was a lot of downgraded results from the selective grammar schools, though as you may expect they have a history of inflating estimates.
The people failed would be those outperforming the school-this felt personal as I managed that in the 80s. First A in Biology‘A’ level after 21 years of the school. That got me to university and it is those individuals who have been failed. The stars in the dirt. | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:01 - Aug 20 with 503 views | Gwyn737 |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:45 - Aug 20 by felixstowe_jack |
GCSE results just released. The pass rate has just increased from 70% to 79%. This is a grade inflation of 12.87%. I guess teachers have over estimated grades but of course teachers know best. |
I’m sure that there has been some unscrupulous stuff going on but on the flip side predicting results is (ironically) unpredictable.
For example, in your A level maths class you have 5 students capable of getting the top grade. History shows that usually 3 will actually achieve it. Margins are so fine it’s practically impossible to say which 3 of the 5 will make it as they’re all capable.
You’re asked to predict in the March before the exam which three will. What do you do?
What seems to happen (broad brush) is teachers stuck with all 5 getting it. Normally it wouldn’t matter as much as the exam standardises it. This year in this example it results in a 40% grade swing. | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:05 - Aug 20 with 498 views | exhmrc1 |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:52 - Aug 20 by Professor |
Wales still has modular A Levels, so more basis for fair assessment-
Not the case in England and there seems little doubt a significant number were downgraded. My daughter’s school was largely unaffected.
All seemed to get CAG and what prior (two rounds) of mock exams suggested. Across the local authority border in Wirral there was a lot of downgraded results from the selective grammar schools, though as you may expect they have a history of inflating estimates.
The people failed would be those outperforming the school-this felt personal as I managed that in the 80s. First A in Biology‘A’ level after 21 years of the school. That got me to university and it is those individuals who have been failed. The stars in the dirt. |
If you have 280000 having grades increased that is 2000 per university. There simply isnt any room in leading universities. Somewhere like Durham is extremely small as is Cambridge and Bath. Bangor and Aber more so. If these universities have to offer say 500 extra places out of their entry of 4000 that leaves less places for next years intake make it far harder for them who are not going to be given inflated teaches assessments yet Starmer has backed this. | | | |
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| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:12 - Aug 20 with 494 views | Joe_bradshaw |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:11 - Aug 20 by felixstowe_jack |
My apologies she is a liberal. As she has kept a very low profile throughout the Welsh exam crisis I guess not many people have ever heard of her. She was still appointed by the labour run Welsh assembly so Drakeford must take full responsibility for the shambles in the Welsh education system. This has led to vast grade inflation as pupils can take the highest result of teacher assessment, last years AS results or this years moderation process is it increased their grades.
Will do pupils no good at all in the long run if they have been awarded grades above their ability. |
No argument regarding this year’s results which will be an outlier for ever. The young people getting their results this year will always have to battle the “oh, that was COVID year, I wonder what your results would have been in a normal year” stigma that comes with their generation. Unfortunately political persuasion will largely determine where people lay the blame for this but the kids are the ones who will suffer as they’ the victims in this mess.
With regard to Kirsty Williams she was very high profile in Wales at the time of her appointment because it was such an unusual appointment and remains so. She has featured on Radio Wales and Welsh TV news a great deal over the past couple of weeks. I cannot imagine that people living in Wales with an interest in education will not have heard of her so we’ll have to disagree on that point. |  |
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| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:12 - Aug 20 with 492 views | chad |
COVID has a lot to answer for.
It also goes to show the vagaries of the examination system.
It will also be interesting to follow this year v others in terms of uni dropouts and final grades.
We are humans, we create human systems, to do the best we can, but at the end of the day are massively fallible. Straightforward common sense in such matters, is sometimes underrated. | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:20 - Aug 20 with 478 views | Professor |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:05 - Aug 20 by exhmrc1 |
If you have 280000 having grades increased that is 2000 per university. There simply isnt any room in leading universities. Somewhere like Durham is extremely small as is Cambridge and Bath. Bangor and Aber more so. If these universities have to offer say 500 extra places out of their entry of 4000 that leaves less places for next years intake make it far harder for them who are not going to be given inflated teaches assessments yet Starmer has backed this. |
But that is a big assumption that increases are to A grades. For many it will be U to D, D to C etc.
For many it will allow entry on to more vocational degree at places like USW or Chester. Or entry into high level apprenticeship. ( a big thing around here). There are plenty of university places
for these kids. The numbers missing out on Oxbridge (or Bristol, Durham or Exeter with the other Public school kids) will be small and most will get a place even if deferred. They may also find places in universities like Surrey , Warwick or UEA which are arguably better. | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:28 - Aug 20 with 473 views | Joe_bradshaw |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 09:02 - Aug 20 by chad |
I don’t understand why they would not sign an NDA and sorry if I have missed any relevant point as it is not something I have looked into in detail, however ...
Surely this was about getting together and doing the very best to be as fair as was humanly possible to the children in an impossible situation, rather than make political points in the press.
It seems they had the opportunity to contribute to this, at a stage when there was time to make a real difference and decided not to. |
I think that politicians of all parties have created a rod for their own back on things like this. The problem for a body like the RSS signing a NDA is that politicians will twist everything to suit their agenda and the RSS would not be able to publicly refute anything said by them. From Blair’s dodgy dossier to Johnson’s deliberately misleading numbers on a bus politicians have created an astonishing level of mistrust in themselves by the public.
If the RSS told the government that the algorithm was next to useless but for political reasons the government decided to go with it anyway, no one would be surprised if the government claimed that the RSS had assessed the algorithm without telling anyone what the RSS actually said about it. Meanwhile the RSS are legally bound not to put the record straight. I stress that I am not Tory bashing here, I would have suspected Blair just as much as Johnson to tell half truths and downright lies on something like this. | |
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| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:30 - Aug 20 with 461 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:01 - Aug 20 by Gwyn737 |
I’m sure that there has been some unscrupulous stuff going on but on the flip side predicting results is (ironically) unpredictable.
For example, in your A level maths class you have 5 students capable of getting the top grade. History shows that usually 3 will actually achieve it. Margins are so fine it’s practically impossible to say which 3 of the 5 will make it as they’re all capable.
You’re asked to predict in the March before the exam which three will. What do you do?
What seems to happen (broad brush) is teachers stuck with all 5 getting it. Normally it wouldn’t matter as much as the exam standardises it. This year in this example it results in a 40% grade swing. |
Results in Wales.
74.5% A* to C as against 62.8% last year. That is grade inflation of 18%.
Pass rate for all grades up to 99.6% from 97.2% last year. How on earth can any exam have a pass rate of 99.6%? What an indictment on an education system that nobody can fail. | |
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| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:35 - Aug 20 with 460 views | Professor |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:12 - Aug 20 by chad |
COVID has a lot to answer for.
It also goes to show the vagaries of the examination system.
It will also be interesting to follow this year v others in terms of uni dropouts and final grades.
We are humans, we create human systems, to do the best we can, but at the end of the day are massively fallible. Straightforward common sense in such matters, is sometimes underrated. |
The problem also comes to to an obsession with exams. They are a good way of assessing the ability to pass an exam. The return to exam based assessment was very much a Gove/Cummings decision.
Properly defined coursework with proper oversight should be part of a balanced assessment portfolio. This can help the grafters - surely hard work should be rewarded and can assess skills. Exams are about half of our BVSc (Vets) Assessment with each clinical rotation,
Final OSCE, essays, project work all Contribute. It means graduates have academic attainment and competency to be a veterinary surgeon. As we devalue vocational and skills based training , it leads to a rush to A levels and university, when many would be better learning through work and getting a qualification as part of an apprenticeship. Some degree like nursing In Swansea are already like this. We really need a re-think of what education is. | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:45 - Aug 20 with 450 views | exhmrc1 |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:20 - Aug 20 by Professor |
But that is a big assumption that increases are to A grades. For many it will be U to D, D to C etc.
For many it will allow entry on to more vocational degree at places like USW or Chester. Or entry into high level apprenticeship. ( a big thing around here). There are plenty of university places
for these kids. The numbers missing out on Oxbridge (or Bristol, Durham or Exeter with the other Public school kids) will be small and most will get a place even if deferred. They may also find places in universities like Surrey , Warwick or UEA which are arguably better. |
What is known is that the A* rate has gone up to 16% from 12 originally given and the A grade has increased to 40%. In a normal year the A* is nowhere near that figure roughly half so there are going to be large increases of students looking at top univesities. Oxford, Cambridge, LSE, UCL, Imperial, Durham and St Andrews didnt enter clearing as they were full. Bath, Bristol and Exeter were full by Friday and on Monday Manchester only had foundation courses and Leeds only had 1 area that wasnt full. They cannot just take these applicants. If there is no accommodation or spaces in lectures there is nothing they can do other than offer places next year which then restricts the number of places for this years prospective students.
The real culprits here are the teachers who have over graded students compared to exam years. I hope the review looks into this and takes appropriate action. If you get 75% of your job wrong would you or anybody else be in it. It is this over grading that has really caused the problems together with gutless politicians of all persuasions. | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 11:04 - Aug 20 with 439 views | Professor |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:45 - Aug 20 by exhmrc1 |
What is known is that the A* rate has gone up to 16% from 12 originally given and the A grade has increased to 40%. In a normal year the A* is nowhere near that figure roughly half so there are going to be large increases of students looking at top univesities. Oxford, Cambridge, LSE, UCL, Imperial, Durham and St Andrews didnt enter clearing as they were full. Bath, Bristol and Exeter were full by Friday and on Monday Manchester only had foundation courses and Leeds only had 1 area that wasnt full. They cannot just take these applicants. If there is no accommodation or spaces in lectures there is nothing they can do other than offer places next year which then restricts the number of places for this years prospective students.
The real culprits here are the teachers who have over graded students compared to exam years. I hope the review looks into this and takes appropriate action. If you get 75% of your job wrong would you or anybody else be in it. It is this over grading that has really caused the problems together with gutless politicians of all persuasions. |
All were ‘full’ based on the cap. Many will honour offers with the caveat of deferred entry where genuine capacity has been reached. This is our position We had roughly 5% capacity to fill via clearing and like similar RG unis we were out of clearing by Thursday evening. If you have the grades , with the exception of clinical degrees, there will be a place out there.
I would not underestimate the difficulty universities are facing with admissions-the buck was well and truly passed with a real hospital pass. No one will miss out long-term.
The only issue appears to be Cambridge where individual colleges decide. | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 11:10 - Aug 20 with 434 views | Professor |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 11:04 - Aug 20 by Professor |
All were ‘full’ based on the cap. Many will honour offers with the caveat of deferred entry where genuine capacity has been reached. This is our position We had roughly 5% capacity to fill via clearing and like similar RG unis we were out of clearing by Thursday evening. If you have the grades , with the exception of clinical degrees, there will be a place out there.
I would not underestimate the difficulty universities are facing with admissions-the buck was well and truly passed with a real hospital pass. No one will miss out long-term.
The only issue appears to be Cambridge where individual colleges decide. |
I also doubt places would be ‘full’ if full fee paying overseas students turned up. At least there are not going to be many places offering physical lectures this year due to distancing. You may also not be surprised to hear most universities run classes at 120%
Room capacity already. | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 11:51 - Aug 20 with 413 views | Gwyn737 |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 10:45 - Aug 20 by exhmrc1 |
What is known is that the A* rate has gone up to 16% from 12 originally given and the A grade has increased to 40%. In a normal year the A* is nowhere near that figure roughly half so there are going to be large increases of students looking at top univesities. Oxford, Cambridge, LSE, UCL, Imperial, Durham and St Andrews didnt enter clearing as they were full. Bath, Bristol and Exeter were full by Friday and on Monday Manchester only had foundation courses and Leeds only had 1 area that wasnt full. They cannot just take these applicants. If there is no accommodation or spaces in lectures there is nothing they can do other than offer places next year which then restricts the number of places for this years prospective students.
The real culprits here are the teachers who have over graded students compared to exam years. I hope the review looks into this and takes appropriate action. If you get 75% of your job wrong would you or anybody else be in it. It is this over grading that has really caused the problems together with gutless politicians of all persuasions. |
I’ve conceded the issue on grade inflation by teachers when it comes to predictions and tried to explain why they are overly generous compared to actual outcomes. (There’s also systemic pressures but that’s another story).
However, this is well known so the algorithm was supposed to smooth this over. It wasn’t effective and now we’re in this mess. God help unis who are trying to sort this out
Any review into this particular failure won’t focus on grade inflation because predictions were made against exams that didn’t happen. In a system that that’s full of accountability measures this is one of the few times where there can’t be any.
I’m not sure where you got the 75% inaccurate from - I assume you plumped for the worst possible figure based on one grade boundary, but it’s worth noting that the algorithm accepted was only 60% accurate which would suggest it’s a pretty tricky job. [Post edited 20 Aug 2020 12:16]
| | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 12:35 - Aug 20 with 395 views | Professor |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 11:51 - Aug 20 by Gwyn737 |
I’ve conceded the issue on grade inflation by teachers when it comes to predictions and tried to explain why they are overly generous compared to actual outcomes. (There’s also systemic pressures but that’s another story).
However, this is well known so the algorithm was supposed to smooth this over. It wasn’t effective and now we’re in this mess. God help unis who are trying to sort this out
Any review into this particular failure won’t focus on grade inflation because predictions were made against exams that didn’t happen. In a system that that’s full of accountability measures this is one of the few times where there can’t be any.
I’m not sure where you got the 75% inaccurate from - I assume you plumped for the worst possible figure based on one grade boundary, but it’s worth noting that the algorithm accepted was only 60% accurate which would suggest it’s a pretty tricky job. [Post edited 20 Aug 2020 12:16]
|
Systemic pressure is the issue in degree grades. From being near impossible to fail anyone to the -
We must award more firsts because Manchester and Leeds are! | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 12:50 - Aug 20 with 388 views | exhmrc1 |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 11:51 - Aug 20 by Gwyn737 |
I’ve conceded the issue on grade inflation by teachers when it comes to predictions and tried to explain why they are overly generous compared to actual outcomes. (There’s also systemic pressures but that’s another story).
However, this is well known so the algorithm was supposed to smooth this over. It wasn’t effective and now we’re in this mess. God help unis who are trying to sort this out
Any review into this particular failure won’t focus on grade inflation because predictions were made against exams that didn’t happen. In a system that that’s full of accountability measures this is one of the few times where there can’t be any.
I’m not sure where you got the 75% inaccurate from - I assume you plumped for the worst possible figure based on one grade boundary, but it’s worth noting that the algorithm accepted was only 60% accurate which would suggest it’s a pretty tricky job. [Post edited 20 Aug 2020 12:16]
|
The 75% was the figure of students who did not their teachers predicted grades for 2019 and is similar to previous years. The figures actually showed
75% did not meet their grades.
16% met them
9% exceeded them.
Given that did anybody really expect CAG to be accurate.
It is this being lenient that has caused the problem and trying to overcome that and get reasonable rates as in previous years has supposedly in England gone wrong. In Wales there is evidence that colleges in disadvantaged areas had best ever grades so it clearly doesnt apply.
The fact is that nobody knows how many of these 40% are actually wrongly assessed only that they dont reach their Teachers grades which every year are proven false. What is certain that students this year are not twice as good as those in previous years. 1/6 of students getting an A* and 2 in 5 getting an A has not happened before and is over 1 and 1/2 the numbers of previous years showing that this years grades are favoured over past years. I wonder if when next years results come out students will receive 16% A*s. Some years it has been as low as 6%. | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 12:53 - Aug 20 with 387 views | Gwyn737 |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 12:35 - Aug 20 by Professor |
Systemic pressure is the issue in degree grades. From being near impossible to fail anyone to the -
We must award more firsts because Manchester and Leeds are! |
It’s the same in primary, Prof, right down to Reception.
You set targets (predictions) based on the best possible outcome, assuming that the child has a really good year.
Anything set lower than that is seen as not being ambitious and assuming the child won’t do well. Or being part of the ‘Blob’ to use the Govian term! | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 13:33 - Aug 20 with 375 views | Gwyn737 |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 12:50 - Aug 20 by exhmrc1 |
The 75% was the figure of students who did not their teachers predicted grades for 2019 and is similar to previous years. The figures actually showed
75% did not meet their grades.
16% met them
9% exceeded them.
Given that did anybody really expect CAG to be accurate.
It is this being lenient that has caused the problem and trying to overcome that and get reasonable rates as in previous years has supposedly in England gone wrong. In Wales there is evidence that colleges in disadvantaged areas had best ever grades so it clearly doesnt apply.
The fact is that nobody knows how many of these 40% are actually wrongly assessed only that they dont reach their Teachers grades which every year are proven false. What is certain that students this year are not twice as good as those in previous years. 1/6 of students getting an A* and 2 in 5 getting an A has not happened before and is over 1 and 1/2 the numbers of previous years showing that this years grades are favoured over past years. I wonder if when next years results come out students will receive 16% A*s. Some years it has been as low as 6%. |
I think we’ll see a reset next year and the poor 2020 lot will have to live with a metaphorical star next to their results.
Historical inaccuracies in predicted grades are a moot point to a large extent as they haven’t had an impact on grade inflation. Courses have moved away from coursework to being exam focussed for just this reason. A teacher could predict top marks for their whole class - doesn’t make a blind bit of difference as the result comes from a standardised exam.
What the high prediction (or target) does is allow the teacher to keep saying to the child “if you keep working at your best you could get your A.” A high prediction keeps everyone in it.
I think everyone agrees that there was no perfect system but the u turn was an error. Best I think they could have done is stick with the CAG and allow free appeals to those who moved two or more grades from that.
Not ideal but better. | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 15:50 - Aug 20 with 345 views | exhmrc1 |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 13:33 - Aug 20 by Gwyn737 |
I think we’ll see a reset next year and the poor 2020 lot will have to live with a metaphorical star next to their results.
Historical inaccuracies in predicted grades are a moot point to a large extent as they haven’t had an impact on grade inflation. Courses have moved away from coursework to being exam focussed for just this reason. A teacher could predict top marks for their whole class - doesn’t make a blind bit of difference as the result comes from a standardised exam.
What the high prediction (or target) does is allow the teacher to keep saying to the child “if you keep working at your best you could get your A.” A high prediction keeps everyone in it.
I think everyone agrees that there was no perfect system but the u turn was an error. Best I think they could have done is stick with the CAG and allow free appeals to those who moved two or more grades from that.
Not ideal but better. |
I dont agree with you. The best thing they could have done is stick to the moderated system which appears very fair certainly in Wales. Even the moderated system allowed higher pass rates but at least they gave some kind of proper result. People going on about poor post codes simply havent looked at the facts. Coleg Gwent which covers many of the most disadvantaged areas in Wales including 2 in Caerphilly and 1 in Newport which are in the 10 most disadvantaged areas in Wales got their best results ever as did Gower College which covers 5 areas between 15 and 31 in the most disadvantaged areas. Neath Port Talbot College had its best ever A* results. The argument simply doesnt wash. If people disapproved of their mark they could have appealed.
The current system is absolutely farcical. 1/6 of students getting A* and 2/5 grade A. They have flooded the university system with a load of students with inflated grades. Who can now differentiate between the students who got genuine grades or the ones who only had it because their teachers wrongly gave it to them.
Next year you will have loads of students blocking places for the better students who are the ones who will suffer. It is a nonsense and totally unfair system created by teachers who just didnt mark hard enough. What about the students who had teachers marking correctly who havent got as high grades but are probably better than those given them. That is whole purpose of moderation and they have been failed by the teaching system and politicians. | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 16:27 - Aug 20 with 331 views | Gwyn737 |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 15:50 - Aug 20 by exhmrc1 |
I dont agree with you. The best thing they could have done is stick to the moderated system which appears very fair certainly in Wales. Even the moderated system allowed higher pass rates but at least they gave some kind of proper result. People going on about poor post codes simply havent looked at the facts. Coleg Gwent which covers many of the most disadvantaged areas in Wales including 2 in Caerphilly and 1 in Newport which are in the 10 most disadvantaged areas in Wales got their best results ever as did Gower College which covers 5 areas between 15 and 31 in the most disadvantaged areas. Neath Port Talbot College had its best ever A* results. The argument simply doesnt wash. If people disapproved of their mark they could have appealed.
The current system is absolutely farcical. 1/6 of students getting A* and 2/5 grade A. They have flooded the university system with a load of students with inflated grades. Who can now differentiate between the students who got genuine grades or the ones who only had it because their teachers wrongly gave it to them.
Next year you will have loads of students blocking places for the better students who are the ones who will suffer. It is a nonsense and totally unfair system created by teachers who just didnt mark hard enough. What about the students who had teachers marking correctly who havent got as high grades but are probably better than those given them. That is whole purpose of moderation and they have been failed by the teaching system and politicians. |
The u-turn system is rubbish, I agree. I just suggested a system that could have been into account to address the outliers. It works both ways too, there are examples of the original algorithm awarding a 6 when the maximum that could have been gained from that level exam Paper was a 4!
I’m not sure what your getting at with individual examples of colleges. Are you saying they did well after the u-turn so the grades are undeserved or are you just saying they did well and deserve praise?
This idea that teachers are just sticking their finger in the air and scribbling down random high grades is just plain wrong. Teachers generally follow an algorithm (funnily enough...) where the targets they set are in line with the top 25% performing children in previous years.
I’m repeating myself again but anything lower than that is seen as not ambitious enough. The level of accountability (in England, can’t comment on Wales) for teachers is nuts, and in many ways has contributed to where we are. | | | |
| Exam Results 'Scandal' on 16:36 - Aug 20 with 323 views | Joe_bradshaw |
I don't think Wales could have stuck with the algorithm whilst the rest of the UK did their respective U turns. All UK students are competing for HE places and Welsh students would have been hugely disadvantaged if they had. Unfortunately, in the interest of fairness all corners of the UK now have grade inflation which won't actually help the young people involved or the universities in trying to unravel the mess and sort the wheat from the chaff. | |
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