| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. 15:20 - Apr 17 with 1434 views | SwansIndependent |
 The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. 18th Apr 2021 10:58If the start of the game was bad, the first twenty five minutes of the second half this afternoon at the Liberty was atrocious. Once again the wandering about with not a lot of interest in winning the game strategy returned. A self imposed exile from the past two games and an inability to hold up, pass or even take control of the ball. Then it’s all change, two quick goals scrape a draw, and the advantage that could have been three points closer to Watford is just one.  1
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:31 - Apr 18 with 357 views | trampie |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:13 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
Doesn’t matter, that isn’t what it’s based on.
Otherwise we would have the same chance to beat Norwich as we do Wycombe because 3 points are available in each.
But we don’t. It’s based on match by match probabilities.
I didn’t think we would gain automatic promotion before yesterday’s games, I still don’t today. But the fact we gained on them when statistically we were more likely not to, I recognise we now have a better chance today than we did yesterday.
But it’s still a very unlikely scenario. |
It does matter, it is the opposition that doesn't matter when a gap of 7 points has to be closed over a 5 game period, or 6 points over 4 games as of now.
Opportunity missed, if Swans had closed the gap by 2 or 3 points and not 1pt then it would have been on in earnest particularly if Swans had won and Watford lost like they did, Swans would have won 3 on the bounce, Watford coming off a defeat with a tough run in, but as it is the chance is diminishing, the difference between Swans winning and Watford losing compared to Swans drawing and Watford losing is huge as regards Swans automatic chances. |  |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:36 - Apr 18 with 353 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:31 - Apr 18 by trampie |
It does matter, it is the opposition that doesn't matter when a gap of 7 points has to be closed over a 5 game period, or 6 points over 4 games as of now.
Opportunity missed, if Swans had closed the gap by 2 or 3 points and not 1pt then it would have been on in earnest particularly if Swans had won and Watford lost like they did, Swans would have won 3 on the bounce, Watford coming off a defeat with a tough run in, but as it is the chance is diminishing, the difference between Swans winning and Watford losing compared to Swans drawing and Watford losing is huge as regards Swans automatic chances. |
It really doesn’t matter.
You are mixing and matching your logic. First you are stating all things are equal because there is 3 points available in each game and then stating each game is different. It can’t be both.
The correct answer is each game is different with a different probability of a return or gain in each game.
In this particular round it was more likely we wouldn’t gain than we would gain... we gained. So we have more chance now than we did before the game. It’s easy. |  |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:45 - Apr 18 with 341 views | trampie |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:36 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
It really doesn’t matter.
You are mixing and matching your logic. First you are stating all things are equal because there is 3 points available in each game and then stating each game is different. It can’t be both.
The correct answer is each game is different with a different probability of a return or gain in each game.
In this particular round it was more likely we wouldn’t gain than we would gain... we gained. So we have more chance now than we did before the game. It’s easy. |
"In this particular round it was more likely we wouldn’t gain than we would gain" you say, not in my book it wasn't.
You personally thought that Swansea were more likely to lose points compared to Watford than gain points on Watford this weekend ??? | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:51 - Apr 18 with 338 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:45 - Apr 18 by trampie |
"In this particular round it was more likely we wouldn’t gain than we would gain" you say, not in my book it wasn't.
You personally thought that Swansea were more likely to lose points compared to Watford than gain points on Watford this weekend ??? |
Watford had a 57.1% of getting maximum points. Meaning we couldn’t gain on them in that scenario.
Add the % chance of that happening and us losing and drawing in that scenario. And it is a mathematical fact that it was far more likely we would not gain on them this week than would.
The fact that we have means we are more likely than before the games. It’s not an opinion, just an understanding of mathematical probability. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:55 - Apr 18 with 334 views | trampie |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:51 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
Watford had a 57.1% of getting maximum points. Meaning we couldn’t gain on them in that scenario.
Add the % chance of that happening and us losing and drawing in that scenario. And it is a mathematical fact that it was far more likely we would not gain on them this week than would.
The fact that we have means we are more likely than before the games. It’s not an opinion, just an understanding of mathematical probability. |
No no you said "In this particular round it was more likely we wouldn’t gain than we would gain" do you personally believe that statement of yours ?
Just to remind you Swansea was at home to bottom place Wycombe and Watford away to 'derby' rivals Luton. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:59 - Apr 18 with 330 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:55 - Apr 18 by trampie |
No no you said "In this particular round it was more likely we wouldn’t gain than we would gain" do you personally believe that statement of yours ?
Just to remind you Swansea was at home to bottom place Wycombe and Watford away to 'derby' rivals Luton. |
What do you mean no? It’s not about “belief”, I am giving a fact.
For us to gain on Watford they would have had to not win.
The chances of them not winning was 42.9%. Meaning there was more chance of us not gaining on them, than gaining on them. That’s without also adding the probabilities of us losing.
The fact we gained means we are in a better position now than we were prior to the game. I can’t explain it any plainer. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:01 - Apr 18 with 323 views | max936 |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 11:21 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
Concede? I am not giving an opinion, I am stating a mathematical fact. There is no spin, involved.
Less games to play doesn't equate to less chance to catch them, one does not mean the other. If we won yesterday there would still be less games to play, but wouldn't mean less chance to catch them, so your thinking is not accurate.
The most likely scenario prior to yesterday was 4 games left and 7 behind... we are 4 games left and 6 behind. [Post edited 18 Apr 2021 13:17]
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Should have been 4 pts behind, that's as clear as daylight, 2pts dropped and that's along with many other pts we dropped when we probably shouldn't have, that's football and live sport, I know, but we've had a great chance to have got back into the Premiership automatically, I don't fancy our chances in the Play offs, I can't see Watford dropping the pts we need to catch them. |  | | |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:03 - Apr 18 with 321 views | trampie |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:59 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
What do you mean no? It’s not about “belief”, I am giving a fact.
For us to gain on Watford they would have had to not win.
The chances of them not winning was 42.9%. Meaning there was more chance of us not gaining on them, than gaining on them. That’s without also adding the probabilities of us losing.
The fact we gained means we are in a better position now than we were prior to the game. I can’t explain it any plainer. |
No no you miss understood, bookies odds aren't reality, did you personally think that "in this particular round it was more likely we wouldn’t gain than we would gain" ? | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:05 - Apr 18 with 313 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:01 - Apr 18 by max936 |
Should have been 4 pts behind, that's as clear as daylight, 2pts dropped and that's along with many other pts we dropped when we probably shouldn't have, that's football and live sport, I know, but we've had a great chance to have got back into the Premiership automatically, I don't fancy our chances in the Play offs, I can't see Watford dropping the pts we need to catch them. |
Watford are also probably saying “it should be 9 points”.
What it should be doesn’t come into it.
Although if we are strictly talking about what “should” have happened, meaning the most likely scenarios. Then the gap should be 7. We both should have won, probability wise.
Yet the gap is 6.
Could we have closed the gap even more? Of course. It could also have been widened. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:07 - Apr 18 with 311 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:03 - Apr 18 by trampie |
No no you miss understood, bookies odds aren't reality, did you personally think that "in this particular round it was more likely we wouldn’t gain than we would gain" ? |
It isn’t bookies odds, it’s exchange odds which run at 100% book.
I absolutely think the probabilities are correct yes. Without any shadow of a doubt, there is enough sample size to show that they are. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:10 - Apr 18 with 302 views | trampie |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:07 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
It isn’t bookies odds, it’s exchange odds which run at 100% book.
I absolutely think the probabilities are correct yes. Without any shadow of a doubt, there is enough sample size to show that they are. |
So you personally thought that "In this particular round it was more likely we wouldn’t gain than we would gain" ? | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:11 - Apr 18 with 296 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:10 - Apr 18 by trampie |
So you personally thought that "In this particular round it was more likely we wouldn’t gain than we would gain" ? |
I looked at the probabilities and made that conclusion yes, absolutely.
It’s maths. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:20 - Apr 18 with 280 views | trampie |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:11 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
I looked at the probabilities and made that conclusion yes, absolutely.
It’s maths. |
So you was wrong then, were you not ?
You thought that it was likely that Watford would get more points than Swansea this weekend but in reality Swansea actually got more points than Watford this weekend. [Post edited 18 Apr 2021 14:23]
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:24 - Apr 18 with 265 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:20 - Apr 18 by trampie |
So you was wrong then, were you not ?
You thought that it was likely that Watford would get more points than Swansea this weekend but in reality Swansea actually got more points than Watford this weekend. [Post edited 18 Apr 2021 14:23]
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Wrong?
Surely you understand how probabilities work?
If there are 3 balls in a bag, 2 red and 1 green. Probabilities state there is more chance of pulling out a red ball.
If you pull out a green one, that statement is still correct. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:37 - Apr 18 with 250 views | trampie |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:24 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
Wrong?
Surely you understand how probabilities work?
If there are 3 balls in a bag, 2 red and 1 green. Probabilities state there is more chance of pulling out a red ball.
If you pull out a green one, that statement is still correct. |
Yes you got it wrong, you thought that Watford was more likely to get more points than Swansea this weekend when in reality Swansea actually got more points than Watford.
The outcome of two football games (form, injuries, home advantage, playing styles) is different to the outcome of a game of chance (pulling balls out of a bag). | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:42 - Apr 18 with 239 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:37 - Apr 18 by trampie |
Yes you got it wrong, you thought that Watford was more likely to get more points than Swansea this weekend when in reality Swansea actually got more points than Watford.
The outcome of two football games (form, injuries, home advantage, playing styles) is different to the outcome of a game of chance (pulling balls out of a bag). |
Wrong? It’s a statistical fact, not an opinion.
All of that is taken into consideration when calculating the probabilities. That’s why we were 1.57 to beat Wycombe. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:47 - Apr 18 with 233 views | trampie |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:42 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
Wrong? It’s a statistical fact, not an opinion.
All of that is taken into consideration when calculating the probabilities. That’s why we were 1.57 to beat Wycombe. |
It was not a fact as the outcome had not been determined and you got the outcome wrong. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:59 - Apr 18 with 221 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 14:47 - Apr 18 by trampie |
It was not a fact as the outcome had not been determined and you got the outcome wrong. |
The outcome is irrelevant.
I never stated what the outcome would be in order to be wrong, only what the correct probabilities of each outcome was.
One outcome being more likely than the other doesn’t mean any other outcome can’t happen.
It is more likely for us to not be promoted automatically right now than promoted automatically. If we do end up being promoted automatically, that statement is still correct. | |
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