| Chances spurned Nothing learned 18:05 - Feb 18 with 1141 views | SwansIndependent |
 Chances spurned Nothing learned 18th Feb 2023 18:05Russell Martin’s frustrations continued after a promising start at Ewood Park this afternoon in front of over five hundred travelling Swans fans. Despite the domination in the first half and hitting the bar from a Ben Cabango header the game ended with the inevitable conclusion.  0
Shoulda, woulda, coulda, click above.
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| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 19:00 - Feb 18 with 1007 views | KeithHaynes |
Apologies for the incorrect scoreline. You give them one job ! |  |
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| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 20:29 - Feb 18 with 910 views | builthjack |
It’s every game, missing chances, then getting punished.
I am sure no other team miss as many chances as us. |  |
| Swansea Indepenent Poster Of The Year 2021. Dr P / Mart66 / Roathie / Parlay / E20/ Duffle was 2nd, but he is deluded and thinks in his little twisted brain that he won. Poor sod. We let him win this year, as he has cried for a whole year. His 14 usernames, bless his cotton socks.
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| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 00:38 - Feb 19 with 772 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 20:29 - Feb 18 by builthjack |
It’s every game, missing chances, then getting punished.
I am sure no other team miss as many chances as us. |
I’m not convinced when I hear about these chances we supposedly had.
They had the best chance of the match and scored.
The xG conversion for the top 4 chances we had are as follows:
- Darling (16th min) 33%
- Sorinola (92nd min) 18%
- Cabango (16th min) 10%
- Fulton (39th min) 8%
Piroes ‘best’ chance was a 7% conversion rate. 1 in 14, where he hit it on the angle into the side netting.
Unfortunately the system we play doesn’t allow us close enough to their goal often enough. We are 3rd from bottom for touches in the 6yard box and the player with most chances in that area is our CB.
To summarise:
Darling missed a chance with a 1 in 3 chance of scoring, the rest were very likely to not end up in a goal ranging from 1 in 5.5… to 1 in 11.
Ayala had the best chance of the game with a 40% conversion rate who tucked it away.
We didn’t deserve to win and with the above considered it could be argued we deserved to lose. [Post edited 19 Feb 2023 4:01]
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| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 02:26 - Feb 19 with 743 views | Dr_Parnassus |
“I am sure no other team miss as many chances as us.”
I missed that sentence on first glance. That’s a very easy one to look at.
xG as touched upon above is a score based on quality of chance and therefore the chance of scoring in that situation.
So you simply look at xG vs what happened and you can attribute an over performance or underperformance to it.
For example Sheff Utd this season have an xG of 1.93, yet their actual goals scored is 1.69 giving a -0.24 underperformance when it comes to the finishing of those chances.
So let’s look at how we compare to everyone else:-
1. Burnley (+0.35)
2. Bristol C (+0.18)
……………………………………..
3. Rotherham (+0.17)
4. Blackburn (+0.13)
5. Sunderland (+0.10)
6. Middlesbrough (+0.10)
………………………………………
7. Hull City (+0.03)
8. Huddersfield (-0.04)
9. Reading (-0.04)
10. Birmingham (-0.14)
11. Blackpool (-0.14)
12. Swansea (-0.17)
13. Wigan (-0.19)
14. Sheff Utd (-0.24)
15. Watford (-0.25)
16. Luton (-0.37)
17. Millwall (-0.39)
18. Stoke (-0.39)
19. WBA (-0.41)
20. Coventry (-0.43)
21. Norwich (-0.44)
……………………………………
22. Preston (-0.44)
23. QPR (-0.49)
24. Cardiff (-0.63)
So we are in the top half for finishing the chances we get, pretty much bang on with our expected number, predicted from the quality of chance we get.
The problem isn’t the players on the end of the limited chances we create, they are performing pretty much as expected.
The problem is that the system we play fails to provide an adequate amount of good chances that allows us to win the game in relation to the amount of goals we concede. [Post edited 19 Feb 2023 4:02]
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| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 10:51 - Feb 19 with 640 views | JackDragon |
I think that's 14 points we've thrown away this season by conceding goals from the 85th minute 😱. Couple that with games where we should've been out of sight by half time 🤦ðŸ¼â€â™‚ï¸. It's bonkers really. STID | | | |
| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 10:56 - Feb 19 with 620 views | union_jack |
| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 00:38 - Feb 19 by Dr_Parnassus |
I’m not convinced when I hear about these chances we supposedly had.
They had the best chance of the match and scored.
The xG conversion for the top 4 chances we had are as follows:
- Darling (16th min) 33%
- Sorinola (92nd min) 18%
- Cabango (16th min) 10%
- Fulton (39th min) 8%
Piroes ‘best’ chance was a 7% conversion rate. 1 in 14, where he hit it on the angle into the side netting.
Unfortunately the system we play doesn’t allow us close enough to their goal often enough. We are 3rd from bottom for touches in the 6yard box and the player with most chances in that area is our CB.
To summarise:
Darling missed a chance with a 1 in 3 chance of scoring, the rest were very likely to not end up in a goal ranging from 1 in 5.5… to 1 in 11.
Ayala had the best chance of the game with a 40% conversion rate who tucked it away.
We didn’t deserve to win and with the above considered it could be argued we deserved to lose. [Post edited 19 Feb 2023 4:01]
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Piroe’s best chance surely was where he carved out an opening only to shoot it straight at the keeper.
Last season he would have almost certainly scored or forced a good save. |  |
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| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 12:10 - Feb 19 with 562 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 10:56 - Feb 19 by union_jack |
Piroe’s best chance surely was where he carved out an opening only to shoot it straight at the keeper.
Last season he would have almost certainly scored or forced a good save. |
6% I believe that one was.
1 in 16.5 | |
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| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 12:14 - Feb 19 with 555 views | union_jack |
| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 12:10 - Feb 19 by Dr_Parnassus |
6% I believe that one was.
1 in 16.5 |
For me that was a better chance than the one you mentioned but there you go. | |
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| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 12:27 - Feb 19 with 541 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 12:14 - Feb 19 by union_jack |
For me that was a better chance than the one you mentioned but there you go. |
This one?
From distance, keeper set, players in front of him.
Hard to call that a missed chance really.
I assume it is this one, which is marked as 5%. Seems about right, 1 in 20 from that distance to fly in. The majority would be saved, be blocked or miss from that range.
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| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 14:33 - Feb 19 with 482 views | union_jack |
| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 12:27 - Feb 19 by Dr_Parnassus |
This one?
From distance, keeper set, players in front of him.
Hard to call that a missed chance really.
I assume it is this one, which is marked as 5%. Seems about right, 1 in 20 from that distance to fly in. The majority would be saved, be blocked or miss from that range.
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Yes that looks like the one. On TV it looked a lot more ‘scoreable’ due to camera positioning. | |
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| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 14:38 - Feb 19 with 479 views | Fireboy2 |
| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 10:56 - Feb 19 by union_jack |
Piroe’s best chance surely was where he carved out an opening only to shoot it straight at the keeper.
Last season he would have almost certainly scored or forced a good save. |
I was banging my head against the seat when he missed that one, he set himself up perfectly and as you say he would have nailed that last season.
If he had scored that we would have won by more than 1, that's why I was so frustrated after the game as bburn weren't that good, they were there for the taking. |  | | |
| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 14:44 - Feb 19 with 472 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 14:38 - Feb 19 by Fireboy2 |
I was banging my head against the seat when he missed that one, he set himself up perfectly and as you say he would have nailed that last season.
If he had scored that we would have won by more than 1, that's why I was so frustrated after the game as bburn weren't that good, they were there for the taking. |
“Missed” 
It was on the edge of the “D”. 22 yards out.
People are being very silly after this one. Anything but blaming the obvious I suppose. Now we are banging our heads against the wall for players not smashing one in from nigh on 25 yards out.
Crazy. | |
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| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 15:03 - Feb 19 with 455 views | STID2017 |
| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 14:44 - Feb 19 by Dr_Parnassus |
“Missed”
It was on the edge of the “D”. 22 yards out.
People are being very silly after this one. Anything but blaming the obvious I suppose. Now we are banging our heads against the wall for players not smashing one in from nigh on 25 yards out.
Crazy. |
By the obvious you mean Martin ?
How was Martin responsible for Piroe hitting the shot tamely to the keeper ?
Had he fired it either side, forcing the keeper to make a good save, I could agree with you.
He created a great chance for himself but missed it.
Have a look back at the video |  |
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| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 15:13 - Feb 19 with 438 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Chances spurned Nothing learned on 15:03 - Feb 19 by STID2017 |
By the obvious you mean Martin ?
How was Martin responsible for Piroe hitting the shot tamely to the keeper ?
Had he fired it either side, forcing the keeper to make a good save, I could agree with you.
He created a great chance for himself but missed it.
Have a look back at the video |
Because his tactics are such that we rely on low % pot shots like that to score. We play no wingers as I talked you through before, often playing centrally in the most condensed area of the pitch, making defences hard to break down.
Hence why we have the 3rd lowest amount of touches in the 6 yard box and the player with the most shots for us in that area is our CB.
Remember my heat map you said you weren’t interested in? Well that demonstrates it perfectly. We could have saved ourselves a conversation.
If we are criticising a player for not scoring from 20+ yards then we have major tactical issues. | |
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