| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. 10:25 - Jun 25 with 3378 views | omarjack |
I'm feeling economical today..I thought I might share few thoughts for those who give a toss (not many I'm sure)
INCOME: (without considering profit from players sales)
From the official figures for 2016/2017 we can see the following breakdown of income:
TV money:109.3 £
Matchday:7.4 £
Commercial:7 £
Merchandise:2.6 £
Other:1.4 £
TOTAL:127.7 £
Estimate of Swansea City FC income for the 1st year in the Championship:
TV money:50 £ (1st year of parachute payments)
Matchday:4 £ (decrease of more than 40%)
Commercial:2 £ (UK bet sponsor deal expected to be on the low side)
Merchandise:1 £ (significant decrease)
Other:1 £
TOTAL:58 £
EXPENSES: (without considering player registrations)
In the official accounts for the year 2016/2017:
Wages:98.6 £ (Salaries at 87.4 £...Social security costs at 11.2 £)
Other expenses add up to around:28 £
TOTAL:126.6 £
Estimate of Swansea City FC expenses for the 1st year in the Championship:
Wages:It's almost impossible to tell,But with relegation clauses that vary from 50-66% for most of the squad,With most of the big earners to go and to be replaced with small earners. I think it's safe to say the wage bill will be trimmed by about 35 £..Therefore:
Wages:around 65 £ ?
Other expenses:around 25 £ (many luxuries and developments will halt for sure which will reduce costs)
TOTAL:90 £
Income - Expenses = 58 - 90 = - 32 £ (The amount of money the club needs to save in theory in sales in order to break even)
Clearly there are many details that are omitted,like debt and other factors that I'm not an expert on. These are obviously aren't facts. But I thought it's worth some sort of an amateurish analysis. [Post edited 31 Aug 2018 22:49]
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 10:46 - Jun 25 with 2344 views | Private_Partz |
Good on you for having a stab and making in it nice and clear to understand.
I am sure Lisa and Shakey will be along to correct any errors. Not a criticism. I like them both for their (differing) views on the financial stuff.
It just get so damn complicated when financial years , loans and HMRC are brought into it and, try as I might, I switch off. :-) |  |
| You have mission in life to hold out your hand,
To help the other guy out,
Help your fellow man.
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 10:49 - Jun 25 with 2335 views | Whiterockin |
Under expenses.
Did the club fly to most of the away matches by private plane last season. |  | | |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 10:50 - Jun 25 with 2334 views | yescomeon |
I think you're probably in the ball park there with the £27m saving needed, but I think that is the figure before anyone else leaves. If a 50% reduction to the wages with relegation was uniformly applied then that would reduce the wage bill to £49.3m without anyone leaving. I don't think it will be applied uniformly so lets say a 40% reduction to £59.16m. So then a £21.16 (say £21m) saving is needed before anyone leaves.
Now if we could guess how much could be saved by offloading Fabianski, Mawson, Mesa, Fernandez, J. Ayew, A. Ayew and Bony, which is the best case scenario (financially speaking) then it would be interesting to see how much of that required £21m saving is left over. The only place I can think to get values for the player wages is the latest football manager database. I don't have access to that, but if someone who does could list the wages of the above players it would be interesting. |  |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 10:57 - Jun 25 with 2316 views | Shaky |
In terms of revenue, the parachute payment is on top of TV money in the Championship. I am guessing total revenue of £80-85m for the next financial year. |  |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:02 - Jun 25 with 2307 views | omarjack |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 10:50 - Jun 25 by yescomeon |
I think you're probably in the ball park there with the £27m saving needed, but I think that is the figure before anyone else leaves. If a 50% reduction to the wages with relegation was uniformly applied then that would reduce the wage bill to £49.3m without anyone leaving. I don't think it will be applied uniformly so lets say a 40% reduction to £59.16m. So then a £21.16 (say £21m) saving is needed before anyone leaves.
Now if we could guess how much could be saved by offloading Fabianski, Mawson, Mesa, Fernandez, J. Ayew, A. Ayew and Bony, which is the best case scenario (financially speaking) then it would be interesting to see how much of that required £21m saving is left over. The only place I can think to get values for the player wages is the latest football manager database. I don't have access to that, but if someone who does could list the wages of the above players it would be interesting. |
Ground and merchandise staff don't have relegation clauses. And employee cut won't be made. (Social security costs are likely to go down though)
And since we know Huw and his friends won't compromise their paychecks..Cutting player wages will be the focus.
Now..Bony and A.Ayew's wages alone amount to 9 m FFS..Fabianski's gone and probably won't be replaced with Nordfeldt already on the book that's about 2.5 m saved as well. Fede,Mawson,Jordan,Mesa amount to close to 8 m as well.
But let's not forget many of these players will have to be replaced as well. So maybe half of this 20 m or so will be saved.
I rely on Football Manager database as well. But let's face it..It might be 80% accurate or so but it's still a video game ffs. Still..Could help get an idea of how much players are pocketing. Better than nothing.
Here's a link by the way: (premier league page,but you can find wages for almost all leagues clearly)
https://sortitoutsi.net/football-manager-2018/league/11/english-premier-division | |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:03 - Jun 25 with 2302 views | omarjack |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 10:57 - Jun 25 by Shaky |
In terms of revenue, the parachute payment is on top of TV money in the Championship. I am guessing total revenue of £80-85m for the next financial year. |
That's very optimistic. | |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:11 - Jun 25 with 2287 views | Shaky |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:03 - Jun 25 by omarjack |
That's very optimistic. |
Which bit? | |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:12 - Jun 25 with 2281 views | omarjack |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:11 - Jun 25 by Shaky |
Which bit? |
80-85 m revenue. | |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:16 - Jun 25 with 2275 views | yescomeon |
I found an online version of the football manager database to base initial estimates of wages on: https://sortitoutsi.net/football-manager-2018/team/724/swansea-city
From there the annual wages of players already gone are:
Fabianski -> £2.6m
Britton -> £2m
Rangel -> £1.7m
King -> £2m
Sanches -> £1.4m
Abraham -> £2.6m
Ki - £1.9m
and those touted to leave:
Mawson -> £1.3m
Fernandez -> £2.2m
J. Ayew -> £2.6m
Bony -> £4.7m
A, Ayew -> £4.2m
Mesa -> £2.5m
So £14.2m*0.6 = £8.52m saved from those that have left already. A further £17.5m*0.6 = £10.5m savings if we shift the others saves £19m, meaning a further £2m needs to be found somewhere.
Suitable candidates for that (imo) would be:
Montero -> £1.6m
Baston -> £2.3m
who if offloaded would save a further £3.9m*0.6 = £2.3m | |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:18 - Jun 25 with 2269 views | yescomeon |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:02 - Jun 25 by omarjack |
Ground and merchandise staff don't have relegation clauses. And employee cut won't be made. (Social security costs are likely to go down though)
And since we know Huw and his friends won't compromise their paychecks..Cutting player wages will be the focus.
Now..Bony and A.Ayew's wages alone amount to 9 m FFS..Fabianski's gone and probably won't be replaced with Nordfeldt already on the book that's about 2.5 m saved as well. Fede,Mawson,Jordan,Mesa amount to close to 8 m as well.
But let's not forget many of these players will have to be replaced as well. So maybe half of this 20 m or so will be saved.
I rely on Football Manager database as well. But let's face it..It might be 80% accurate or so but it's still a video game ffs. Still..Could help get an idea of how much players are pocketing. Better than nothing.
Here's a link by the way: (premier league page,but you can find wages for almost all leagues clearly)
https://sortitoutsi.net/football-manager-2018/league/11/english-premier-division |
Yeah thats why I went 40% rather than 50%, but you could go lower. Thanks for the link, I came across one and started writing my other post before I saw yours. Cheers. | |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:34 - Jun 25 with 2231 views | jasper_T |
Lads, the Football Manager database is not at all reliable for player wages. They're 99% guesswork designed to fit the general financial situation, tabloid rumours over facts, and how the game's transfer system works. Sometimes you get leaks or players come in from leagues that have public wage figures (like Paloschi coming from Italy), but it's rare.
I did the Swansea data for FM16 and 17, and I'm back for 19. |  | | |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:37 - Jun 25 with 2211 views | omarjack |
To make some sort of a breakdown..
Out of this 98 m in wages..about 38 m of that gets paid for other staff and social security..And since those wages won't be cut in the most part..We need to focus only on player wages. Which are about 60 m over 14 months
So..first we take out the big earners and those to depart..which are Bony,Andre,Jordan,Mawson,Mesa,Fabianski,Ki,Britton,Rangel and maybe more..That amounts to around 26 m in wages..but since we'll consider that half of these wages will be back on the books due to new signings..we deduct 13 m from total wages.
so..60-13=47 m
Now..47 m * 0.6 (relegation clauses)=28 m (senior squad wages)
Finally..28+38 (other wages)=66 m
As you can see my estimates aren't far off. | |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:40 - Jun 25 with 2199 views | yescomeon |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:34 - Jun 25 by jasper_T |
Lads, the Football Manager database is not at all reliable for player wages. They're 99% guesswork designed to fit the general financial situation, tabloid rumours over facts, and how the game's transfer system works. Sometimes you get leaks or players come in from leagues that have public wage figures (like Paloschi coming from Italy), but it's rare.
I did the Swansea data for FM16 and 17, and I'm back for 19. |
Yeah I know mate, but if I was going to come up with figures I'd be guessing too. So why not save myself all the hastle of doing the research to make the educated guesses when someone else has already done that. The whole discussion is ballpark figures anyway. | |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:40 - Jun 25 with 2198 views | omarjack |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:34 - Jun 25 by jasper_T |
Lads, the Football Manager database is not at all reliable for player wages. They're 99% guesswork designed to fit the general financial situation, tabloid rumours over facts, and how the game's transfer system works. Sometimes you get leaks or players come in from leagues that have public wage figures (like Paloschi coming from Italy), but it's rare.
I did the Swansea data for FM16 and 17, and I'm back for 19. |
I'm aware of that. But it generally adds up with official figures of the entire wage bill (usually senior players wages amount to 50-60% of total wages)
I guess we can only rely on these figures for lack of a better alternative. | |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 12:47 - Jun 25 with 2095 views | Whiterockin |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 11:16 - Jun 25 by yescomeon |
I found an online version of the football manager database to base initial estimates of wages on: https://sortitoutsi.net/football-manager-2018/team/724/swansea-city
From there the annual wages of players already gone are:
Fabianski -> £2.6m
Britton -> £2m
Rangel -> £1.7m
King -> £2m
Sanches -> £1.4m
Abraham -> £2.6m
Ki - £1.9m
and those touted to leave:
Mawson -> £1.3m
Fernandez -> £2.2m
J. Ayew -> £2.6m
Bony -> £4.7m
A, Ayew -> £4.2m
Mesa -> £2.5m
So £14.2m*0.6 = £8.52m saved from those that have left already. A further £17.5m*0.6 = £10.5m savings if we shift the others saves £19m, meaning a further £2m needs to be found somewhere.
Suitable candidates for that (imo) would be:
Montero -> £1.6m
Baston -> £2.3m
who if offloaded would save a further £3.9m*0.6 = £2.3m |
If Mawson is on £1.3M PA I would keep unless we get a stupid offer, there may even be a relegation clause in there. [Post edited 25 Jun 2018 12:48]
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 12:56 - Jun 25 with 2080 views | Kilkennyjack |
Someone said debt was already £19m.
Needs to be cleared in next 3 years. Or we probably cant repay it. |  |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 13:55 - Jun 25 with 1999 views | awayjack |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 12:56 - Jun 25 by Kilkennyjack |
Someone said debt was already £19m.
Needs to be cleared in next 3 years. Or we probably cant repay it. |
Wouldn't player sales be used to pay off any debt? If we sell those rumoured to be off we'd get £85m or so ...
Estimates... Fabs 7m, J Ayew 11m, A Ayew £9m, Mawson 25m, Fernandez 7m, Mesa £7m, Baston £5m, Naughton £5m, Amat £4m, Bony £3m, Montero £2m
I know it's more complex with defered payment for players in and out last season, but suspect so maybe a hit of £15m on Bony/ Ayew and maybe another £10m to bring in a few players. Still leave £60m to cover debts / losses next season.
It's a shame the trust don't have access to things like cashlfow forecasts - essential for any serious business - or have access but opt not to share it. |  | | |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 14:24 - Jun 25 with 1959 views | jasper_T |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 13:55 - Jun 25 by awayjack |
Wouldn't player sales be used to pay off any debt? If we sell those rumoured to be off we'd get £85m or so ...
Estimates... Fabs 7m, J Ayew 11m, A Ayew £9m, Mawson 25m, Fernandez 7m, Mesa £7m, Baston £5m, Naughton £5m, Amat £4m, Bony £3m, Montero £2m
I know it's more complex with defered payment for players in and out last season, but suspect so maybe a hit of £15m on Bony/ Ayew and maybe another £10m to bring in a few players. Still leave £60m to cover debts / losses next season.
It's a shame the trust don't have access to things like cashlfow forecasts - essential for any serious business - or have access but opt not to share it. |
We won't get anything for Montero. | | | |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 14:26 - Jun 25 with 1956 views | yescomeon |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 13:55 - Jun 25 by awayjack |
Wouldn't player sales be used to pay off any debt? If we sell those rumoured to be off we'd get £85m or so ...
Estimates... Fabs 7m, J Ayew 11m, A Ayew £9m, Mawson 25m, Fernandez 7m, Mesa £7m, Baston £5m, Naughton £5m, Amat £4m, Bony £3m, Montero £2m
I know it's more complex with defered payment for players in and out last season, but suspect so maybe a hit of £15m on Bony/ Ayew and maybe another £10m to bring in a few players. Still leave £60m to cover debts / losses next season.
It's a shame the trust don't have access to things like cashlfow forecasts - essential for any serious business - or have access but opt not to share it. |
Good point, player sales aren't considered in the above. So, not considering staggered payment, if we had to make up a £21m deficit, the sale of Fabianski has shifted £1.6m of the wage bill and netted £7m fee, we're only looking to close a £19.4m gap.
Not considering staggered payments it may not be necessary to sell all the players listed above. | |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 14:44 - Jun 25 with 1928 views | Shaky |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 13:55 - Jun 25 by awayjack |
Wouldn't player sales be used to pay off any debt? If we sell those rumoured to be off we'd get £85m or so ...
Estimates... Fabs 7m, J Ayew 11m, A Ayew £9m, Mawson 25m, Fernandez 7m, Mesa £7m, Baston £5m, Naughton £5m, Amat £4m, Bony £3m, Montero £2m
I know it's more complex with defered payment for players in and out last season, but suspect so maybe a hit of £15m on Bony/ Ayew and maybe another £10m to bring in a few players. Still leave £60m to cover debts / losses next season.
It's a shame the trust don't have access to things like cashlfow forecasts - essential for any serious business - or have access but opt not to share it. |
I estimate debt currently at a shade under £80 million.
Yes you have to sell the squad, but you also have to bring in some replacements. | |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 15:10 - Jun 25 with 1896 views | Shaky |
And by the way cash-flow forecasts are relatively meaningless at this stage.
What is needed are targets for debt, and maximum cash-out flows that can be tolerated next season. Then for management collectively to go out and get that done, by whatever means necessary. | |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 16:35 - Jun 25 with 1829 views | omarjack |
Breakdown of projected profit on sale versus player registration for next season:
Sales:
-Mawson:20 £
-Jordan Ayew:10 £
-Fabianski:7 £
-Mesa:7 £
-Bartley or Fernandez:5 £
-Amat:5 £
Bony,Andre,Borja,Montero (loan)
TOTAL:54 £
Book value of players at the time of sale:
-Mawson:2.5 £
-Jordan Ayew:2.5 £
-Fabianski:1 £
-Mesa:8.5 £
-Bartley or Fernandez:2 £
-Amat:1.5 £
TOTAL:18 £
Profit on sales of players= 54 - 18 = + 36 £
Player registrations: It's hard to tell but I assume it'll be less than 10 £ (buying 6 players averaging less than 5 £ in fee over 3-4 seasons)
Therefore:
Total income:
58 + 36 = 94 £
Total expenses:
85 + 10 = 95 £
Almost breaking even.
Not to forget the club will make over 35 £ in cash from sales or so. (54 £ in sales versus 20 £ or so to be spent on signings)
I think this breakdown is fairly accurate. [Post edited 25 Jun 2018 17:27]
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 17:15 - Jun 25 with 1778 views | Shaky |
You are mixing apples and oranges, Omar, profit and cash-flow. | |
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| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 18:07 - Jun 25 with 1704 views | awayjack |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 14:44 - Jun 25 by Shaky |
I estimate debt currently at a shade under £80 million.
Yes you have to sell the squad, but you also have to bring in some replacements. |
Agree we should bring in players to replace sales but sadly I expect we'll only spend £10m or so on 2-3 players, and fill the gaps with some loans and free transfers. Conscious this impacts costs but key point being the Board / Shareholders will prioritise income from player sales to reduce the debt.
The cash flow concern is about timing of big lumps from TV/Parachute payments. Our costs (wages) are spread pretty evenly, so if parachute lumps are weighted to back end of the season, we may have cashlfow issues. Our creditors will be nervous now we're out of the PL so may see them tighten controls. Even the smallest companies have cashlfow plans, but in our case with such a high proportion of revenues in lumps from a couple of sources is be staggered if we don't have various scenarios planned. Question was do Trust have accrss to these plans to shed more light on timing of big payments and our plans to reduce debt. | | | |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 19:08 - Jun 25 with 1655 views | Shaky |
| Projected Swansea City FC income & expenses. on 18:07 - Jun 25 by awayjack |
Agree we should bring in players to replace sales but sadly I expect we'll only spend £10m or so on 2-3 players, and fill the gaps with some loans and free transfers. Conscious this impacts costs but key point being the Board / Shareholders will prioritise income from player sales to reduce the debt.
The cash flow concern is about timing of big lumps from TV/Parachute payments. Our costs (wages) are spread pretty evenly, so if parachute lumps are weighted to back end of the season, we may have cashlfow issues. Our creditors will be nervous now we're out of the PL so may see them tighten controls. Even the smallest companies have cashlfow plans, but in our case with such a high proportion of revenues in lumps from a couple of sources is be staggered if we don't have various scenarios planned. Question was do Trust have accrss to these plans to shed more light on timing of big payments and our plans to reduce debt. |
I am sure the Trust will have what has been produced, but I am not sure what that will entail with so much uncertainty regarding the costs.
As I said i think the priority from a management perspective is to set high level targets and get on with it.
The good news is there is some low hanging fruit. Get rid of Bony & A Ayew and you are probably saving close to £15m pa on wages and NI, sell Mawson well and you have probably raised half of the net sale proceeds needed to bring debt down to manageable levels. | |
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