| Donald Trump 13:40 - Jan 27 with 43369 views | Loyal |
Beginning to gain momentum, regardless of people's feelings on him.
Some people are saying that he will never be President.
One name Ronald Reagan. The Americans love all this, and would vote for it to happen.
That I am sure.
My view is he won't live long enough for this to materialise. [Post edited 27 Jan 2016 13:42]
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| Nolan sympathiser, clout expert, personal friend of Leigh Dineen, advocate and enforcer of porridge swallows.
The official inventor of the tit w@nk. | | Poll: | Who should be Swansea number 1 |
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| Donald Trump on 19:40 - Feb 3 with 1637 views | dailew |
| Donald Trump on 19:25 - Feb 3 by exiledclaseboy |
I don't think even you believe what you've written in your last two sentences. |
Muslim population increased about 73% in last two censuses.
Was 2.7m in 2011. You do the math. |  |
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| Donald Trump on 19:40 - Feb 3 with 1636 views | Humpty |
| Donald Trump on 19:32 - Feb 3 by dailew |
But he hasn't even fowkussed yeah !!! |
Apparently he didn't really lose because Cruz cheated or something.
What a loser. |  | | |
| Donald Trump on 19:41 - Feb 3 with 1636 views | exiledclaseboy |
Speaking of Hilary, apparently six districts in Iowa had to toss a coin to decide if Hilary or Sanders got the delegate(s). Hilary won all six. What are the chances...? [Post edited 3 Feb 2016 19:47]
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| Donald Trump on 19:44 - Feb 3 with 1633 views | Jackfath |
| Donald Trump on 19:41 - Feb 3 by exiledclaseboy |
Speaking of Hilary, apparently six districts in Iowa had to toss a coin to decide if Hilary or Sanders got the delegate(s). Hilary won all six. What are the chances...? [Post edited 3 Feb 2016 19:47]
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1 in 64. Around 2% [Post edited 3 Feb 2016 19:47]
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| Donald Trump on 19:46 - Feb 3 with 1629 views | exiledclaseboy |
| Donald Trump on 19:40 - Feb 3 by dailew |
Muslim population increased about 73% in last two censuses.
Was 2.7m in 2011. You do the math. |
Maths. You know as well as I do that your original contention is scaremongering nonsense based on simplistic demographic calculations and has been comprehensively debunked on a number of occasions. But I'm happy to revisit it in 2060 to see if you were right. I'll leave a note for one of my nephews to look you up. | |
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| Donald Trump on 19:51 - Feb 3 with 1621 views | dailew |
| Donald Trump on 19:46 - Feb 3 by exiledclaseboy |
Maths. You know as well as I do that your original contention is scaremongering nonsense based on simplistic demographic calculations and has been comprehensively debunked on a number of occasions. But I'm happy to revisit it in 2060 to see if you were right. I'll leave a note for one of my nephews to look you up. |
I said as things stand. i.e. with no change in government policy.
Never seen it debunked myself. Why don't you enlighten us. | |
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| Donald Trump on 19:55 - Feb 3 with 1613 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Donald Trump on 19:51 - Feb 3 by dailew |
I said as things stand. i.e. with no change in government policy.
Never seen it debunked myself. Why don't you enlighten us. |
It's less government policy and more the statistical evidence on birthrates in immigrant populations (every immigrant population) over time (which always tend down to the average of the population as a whole).
But you must already know that and I can't be bothered.
Trump though eh? He doesn't even believe most of it himself. |  | | |
| Donald Trump on 19:56 - Feb 3 with 1608 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Donald Trump on 19:27 - Feb 3 by exiledclaseboy |
Might be difficult as he couldn't even get Iowa to vote for him. |
Neither did Reagan of course .... | | | |
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| Donald Trump on 19:59 - Feb 3 with 1605 views | exiledclaseboy |
| Donald Trump on 19:51 - Feb 3 by dailew |
I said as things stand. i.e. with no change in government policy.
Never seen it debunked myself. Why don't you enlighten us. |
You'll just dismiss any link I provide in a "they would say that, PC fools" kind of way just the same as I'd dismiss any "proof" of yours as scaremongering nonsense so there's no point. The arguments on both sides are well rehearsed and easily available. Let's hope we're both around at the time to see who was right. For what it's worth I both think and hope you're wrong. | |
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| Donald Trump on 20:02 - Feb 3 with 1602 views | exiledclaseboy |
| Donald Trump on 19:56 - Feb 3 by londonlisa2001 |
Neither did Reagan of course .... |
True. And I'll keep banging the "it's only Iowa" drum. I'm still standing by my prediction though. Trump will get nowhere near the nomination. | |
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| Donald Trump on 20:06 - Feb 3 with 1596 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Donald Trump on 20:02 - Feb 3 by exiledclaseboy |
True. And I'll keep banging the "it's only Iowa" drum. I'm still standing by my prediction though. Trump will get nowhere near the nomination. |
I was pretty alarmed that he came in second, although possibly not as alarmed as I was that Cruz came in first - now if ever there was a nutter...
I'm looking forward to the Donald playing the Canadian card soon - for all it's nonsense, it didn't stop him with Obama (and the nutter right loved that argument when it applied to Obama of course, I imagine they like it a little less now). | | | |
| Donald Trump on 20:13 - Feb 3 with 1587 views | dailew |
| Donald Trump on 19:55 - Feb 3 by londonlisa2001 |
It's less government policy and more the statistical evidence on birthrates in immigrant populations (every immigrant population) over time (which always tend down to the average of the population as a whole).
But you must already know that and I can't be bothered.
Trump though eh? He doesn't even believe most of it himself. |
It it were just dependant on the birth rate amongst immigrant populations then I'd agree.
But half UK muslims are born abroad. A very high percentage of muslim marriages are to foreign-born partners.
A constant flow of immigrants also slows down the integration process. Muslims have been in the Uk for decades but the birth rate is still about double the rest of the populace.
At least 10% of births are to muslim parents.
Muslims will form the majority of schoolkids and then young adults long before the general populace. | |
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| Donald Trump on 20:15 - Feb 3 with 1584 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Donald Trump on 19:41 - Feb 3 by exiledclaseboy |
Speaking of Hilary, apparently six districts in Iowa had to toss a coin to decide if Hilary or Sanders got the delegate(s). Hilary won all six. What are the chances...? [Post edited 3 Feb 2016 19:47]
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By the way - the Washington Post today claimed that there were a larger number of coin tosses and it actually ended up about 50:50. I have no idea whether this is true of not, but seems a reasonable source. | | | |
| Donald Trump on 20:20 - Feb 3 with 1577 views | exiledclaseboy |
| Donald Trump on 20:15 - Feb 3 by londonlisa2001 |
By the way - the Washington Post today claimed that there were a larger number of coin tosses and it actually ended up about 50:50. I have no idea whether this is true of not, but seems a reasonable source. |
Well that's ruined a conspiracy theory that was germinating in my head. Can't remember where I read or heard about the six coin tosses. If I heard it on the radio it was undoubtedly the BBC, if I read it online it could have been anywhere. | |
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| Donald Trump on 20:33 - Feb 3 with 1564 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Donald Trump on 20:13 - Feb 3 by dailew |
It it were just dependant on the birth rate amongst immigrant populations then I'd agree.
But half UK muslims are born abroad. A very high percentage of muslim marriages are to foreign-born partners.
A constant flow of immigrants also slows down the integration process. Muslims have been in the Uk for decades but the birth rate is still about double the rest of the populace.
At least 10% of births are to muslim parents.
Muslims will form the majority of schoolkids and then young adults long before the general populace. |
Half of them that are here at the moment were born abroad - that doesn't mean it will continue (I know your premise was no change, but that is unlikely given that there is a lot of distortion caused by the large immigration from Pakistan / Bangladesh in the latter part of the 20th century).
On the birth rate issue, in the decades you mention, the birth rate (the measure is called the Total Fertility rate) has fallen from 9.3 in the Pakistani & Bangladeshi community and 4.4 in the Indian community to 4.9 and 2.2 respectively. So as you say, it's still much higher, but is falling quite dramatically. Over the same period the TFR in England & Wales has moved from 2.3 to 1.7 as a comparison.
Transparently no one would want the trend to continue, I think the only thing we would disagree on (obviously other than on Trump...) is that I don't believe that it will. | | | |
| Donald Trump on 20:39 - Feb 3 with 1552 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Donald Trump on 20:20 - Feb 3 by exiledclaseboy |
Well that's ruined a conspiracy theory that was germinating in my head. Can't remember where I read or heard about the six coin tosses. If I heard it on the radio it was undoubtedly the BBC, if I read it online it could have been anywhere. |
oh, it was reported everywhere. It's only now that they are reporting that it was not actually true it seems. | | | |
| Donald Trump on 20:57 - Feb 3 with 1537 views | dailew |
| Donald Trump on 20:33 - Feb 3 by londonlisa2001 |
Half of them that are here at the moment were born abroad - that doesn't mean it will continue (I know your premise was no change, but that is unlikely given that there is a lot of distortion caused by the large immigration from Pakistan / Bangladesh in the latter part of the 20th century).
On the birth rate issue, in the decades you mention, the birth rate (the measure is called the Total Fertility rate) has fallen from 9.3 in the Pakistani & Bangladeshi community and 4.4 in the Indian community to 4.9 and 2.2 respectively. So as you say, it's still much higher, but is falling quite dramatically. Over the same period the TFR in England & Wales has moved from 2.3 to 1.7 as a comparison.
Transparently no one would want the trend to continue, I think the only thing we would disagree on (obviously other than on Trump...) is that I don't believe that it will. |
The increase in the muslim population in the last two censuses was 68% and 69% (I remembered wrong). Giving a projected figure of 37m by 2061.
But a falling birthrate and a static muslim population growth rate would indicate that immigration has accelerated in the years 2001-2011. So not distorted by the large immigration from Pakistan / Bangladesh in the latter part of the 20th century at all. | |
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| Donald Trump on 21:06 - Feb 3 with 1527 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Donald Trump on 20:57 - Feb 3 by dailew |
The increase in the muslim population in the last two censuses was 68% and 69% (I remembered wrong). Giving a projected figure of 37m by 2061.
But a falling birthrate and a static muslim population growth rate would indicate that immigration has accelerated in the years 2001-2011. So not distorted by the large immigration from Pakistan / Bangladesh in the latter part of the 20th century at all. |
There has of course been a surge in the last 10 years. Some commentators say that there has been less of a surge than it seems and that the Moslem population was underreported in 2001 - I have no idea.
The immigration from Pakistan / Bangaldesh (along with other commonwealth nations) - I wasn't saying this impacted the last ten years movement but the % of Moslems born abroad. Sorry - I wasn't clear.
I can't imagine a single person wants unchecked immigration - I know that I don't, and I'm about as liberal as it gets short of those idiots who spend their lives marching. I just think things will change and also that the Moslem population that are here will change, so that a majority (or close to it) will never happen. In 2060 I will be 93, so it is my fervent hope that I am around to see whether or not I am right! | | | |
| Donald Trump on 21:19 - Feb 3 with 1516 views | dailew |
| Donald Trump on 21:06 - Feb 3 by londonlisa2001 |
There has of course been a surge in the last 10 years. Some commentators say that there has been less of a surge than it seems and that the Moslem population was underreported in 2001 - I have no idea.
The immigration from Pakistan / Bangaldesh (along with other commonwealth nations) - I wasn't saying this impacted the last ten years movement but the % of Moslems born abroad. Sorry - I wasn't clear.
I can't imagine a single person wants unchecked immigration - I know that I don't, and I'm about as liberal as it gets short of those idiots who spend their lives marching. I just think things will change and also that the Moslem population that are here will change, so that a majority (or close to it) will never happen. In 2060 I will be 93, so it is my fervent hope that I am around to see whether or not I am right! |
I wish I had your optimism but younger muslim generations seem more fundamental, radicalised and less integrated than previous generations.
There are also other factors that could accelerate the march to majority.
As people finally cotton on and see what's coming they will emigrate.
Intelligent people with saleable skills leaving while millions from Pakistani hill country arrive. What can ever go wrong? | |
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| Donald Trump on 19:44 - Feb 10 with 1333 views | londonlisa2001 |
So he won New Hampshire with an absolute landslide then. I guess the whole "Live Free or Die" sentiment is one that the Donald taps right in to. | | | |
| Donald Trump on 19:59 - Feb 10 with 1313 views | exiledclaseboy |
| Donald Trump on 19:44 - Feb 10 by londonlisa2001 |
So he won New Hampshire with an absolute landslide then. I guess the whole "Live Free or Die" sentiment is one that the Donald taps right in to. |
It's a fascinating race so far. There's no stand out sensible option on the GOP side just different shades of mental. And Sanders is giving Hilary a scare. | |
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| Donald Trump on 20:04 - Feb 10 with 1301 views | snork44 |
| Donald Trump on 19:44 - Feb 10 by londonlisa2001 |
So he won New Hampshire with an absolute landslide then. I guess the whole "Live Free or Die" sentiment is one that the Donald taps right in to. |
Considering Trump and Sanders won last night that leaves the apple cart well and truly upturned and leaves the political establishment of both parties well and truly pissed off. As for Cruz he is getting more and more of a slime ball everyday. |  |
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| Donald Trump on 20:05 - Feb 10 with 1289 views | acejack3065 |
| Donald Trump on 21:19 - Feb 3 by dailew |
I wish I had your optimism but younger muslim generations seem more fundamental, radicalised and less integrated than previous generations.
There are also other factors that could accelerate the march to majority.
As people finally cotton on and see what's coming they will emigrate.
Intelligent people with saleable skills leaving while millions from Pakistani hill country arrive. What can ever go wrong? |
Better lock your door at night then bud. |  | | |
| Donald Trump on 20:07 - Feb 10 with 1283 views | Tummer_from_Texas |
| Donald Trump on 20:04 - Feb 10 by snork44 |
Considering Trump and Sanders won last night that leaves the apple cart well and truly upturned and leaves the political establishment of both parties well and truly pissed off. As for Cruz he is getting more and more of a slime ball everyday. |
Sanders may have "won" but he probably gets fewer delegates for it.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/10/hillary-earns-more-new-hampshire-delegates-tha
Calling themselves the "Democratic" Party is a complete misnomer. Those hypocrites don't believe in democracy. |  |
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