| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run 11:41 - Feb 1 with 897 views | SaintNick |
I have done this in the past and explained the "Moneyball" theory and how it has been applied at Saints, Rasmus Ankersen at both Midjytlland and Brentford took it to a more exact science and this is how we will be run going forward, probably not a lot different than we have been doing for most of the last 60 years, just with more theory and data involved.
It basically says that every player has an optimum price, you find the value signings who are under the radar and then you buy them and improve them, but you know their value and when that value is met you sell them and repeat the process.
A lot on here wont like this, but they will look at Nathan Redmond and see that with 5 assists he has more than double that of the next players on 2.
It is about what you do that influences games, not how good you look flying past full backs and then crossing into the keepers arms.
You will also be surprised to learn that behind him on 2 are Adam Armstrong, Diallo & KWP, again players that you would not think would be there.
Its not an exact science, but it is an interesting one as it highlights who actually influences games with contributions that lead to goals (I'm not sure that dead ball situations are counted as assists here.
Most on here would prefer Nathan Tella to Nathan Redmond, but the stats dont back it up
If you want to find out more about the strategy I would suggest buying this book below
https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=soccernomics+book&adgrpid=3811403073&hvadid |  |
| Satisfying The Bloodlust Of The Masses In Peacetime |
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| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 13:58 - Feb 1 with 811 views | SonicBoom |
Redmond divides opinion because he gets in so many good positions to either shoot, or provide a killer pass and invariably, he cocks it up.
The number of times he does that tends to overshadow the good stuff he does which is a shame.
Tella doesn't tend to get in those positions, so he doesn't score or assist, but also never causes the same frustration.
Tella is an odd one. For me he hasn't done a lot to justify the hype, so far. |  | | |
| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 14:02 - Feb 1 with 806 views | SaintNick |
| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 13:58 - Feb 1 by SonicBoom |
Redmond divides opinion because he gets in so many good positions to either shoot, or provide a killer pass and invariably, he cocks it up.
The number of times he does that tends to overshadow the good stuff he does which is a shame.
Tella doesn't tend to get in those positions, so he doesn't score or assist, but also never causes the same frustration.
Tella is an odd one. For me he hasn't done a lot to justify the hype, so far. |
You make some good points and it backs up what I say about how Soccernomics works, it is not about showmanship, it is about the number of times you score or assist if you are an attacker.
Soccernomics says that it is better to have a player that may miss 5 chances and score 1 than a player who will have 10 chances and score O, it is all about stats over showmanship.
I think Tella has a future, but truth is in Soccernomic terms he is not as valueable as Redmond | |
| Satisfying The Bloodlust Of The Masses In Peacetime |
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| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 14:42 - Feb 1 with 786 views | TimSaint |
| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 14:02 - Feb 1 by SaintNick |
You make some good points and it backs up what I say about how Soccernomics works, it is not about showmanship, it is about the number of times you score or assist if you are an attacker.
Soccernomics says that it is better to have a player that may miss 5 chances and score 1 than a player who will have 10 chances and score O, it is all about stats over showmanship.
I think Tella has a future, but truth is in Soccernomic terms he is not as valueable as Redmond |
I would also question how they define an assist.
It used to be when your cross produced a goal, or your pass put someone in to score.
Now you seem to be able to get an assist for just passing it to the scorer, regardless of whether they shoot and score, OR - take a further 4/5/6/7/8 touches, or beat 3 men, or cut in from the wing, before scoring.
I suppose the same rules apply for every player in every team, but nowadays some players are getting far more credit for assists than they perhaps deserve. |  |
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| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 15:34 - Feb 1 with 747 views | Sadoldgit |
| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 13:58 - Feb 1 by SonicBoom |
Redmond divides opinion because he gets in so many good positions to either shoot, or provide a killer pass and invariably, he cocks it up.
The number of times he does that tends to overshadow the good stuff he does which is a shame.
Tella doesn't tend to get in those positions, so he doesn't score or assist, but also never causes the same frustration.
Tella is an odd one. For me he hasn't done a lot to justify the hype, so far. |
Pretty much hits the nail on the head. Totally agree about Tella too. He shows flashes of quality but he really needs to step it up this season. Like Redmond he is prone to make the wrong decision at the wrong time. Hopefully this is something that they can coach into him (or out of him). |  | | |
| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 17:17 - Feb 1 with 706 views | saint901 |
Big data and statistics share a common truth.
In large populations they will always predict events with great accuracy.
There will be a ratio for instance between goal attempts and goals: between passes attempted and passes achieved: between shots allowed and goals conceded.
Once you reduce the population and try to apply the "big" picture to individuals, the truth above no longer holds any integrity.
Instead you're looking at individuals who will never perform to the mean predicted in the big population. They will either out perform or under perform. Further, in some games they are brilliant and in others anonymous (or worse).
Data on players has a function and certainly some are better than others at certain skills but any spectator can see that and if you have a coaches eye, you will be better at it.
In highly regulated and ruled games such as grid iron and baseball and basketball - all designed to high scoring or to allow the truly great to shine - then the big data stats work very well.
In football as we know it, I will reserve judgement. My inclination is that its place as a tool for spotting and nuturing and monetising talent is more limited.
As for Redmond, he is an older professional who knows when to try to go past his full back (i.e. when there is support in the box) but Tella has not yet learnt that going past your man and then finding yourself alone is not the percentage game. My issue with Redmond is that he rarely has three good games in a row. Against Brentford he was epic and against City he wasn't. |  | | |
| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 20:14 - Feb 1 with 646 views | Butty101 |
If saints had been applying money ball or the latest buzz word “ Soccernomics” then why didn’t we sell him when he was player of the season and in the England squad? Truth is no one else wanted him at his peak. It only works if some one wants to buy your player, as we have painfully learnt several times in the last few years. |  |
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| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 22:13 - Feb 1 with 586 views | ElijahK |
| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 13:58 - Feb 1 by SonicBoom |
Redmond divides opinion because he gets in so many good positions to either shoot, or provide a killer pass and invariably, he cocks it up.
The number of times he does that tends to overshadow the good stuff he does which is a shame.
Tella doesn't tend to get in those positions, so he doesn't score or assist, but also never causes the same frustration.
Tella is an odd one. For me he hasn't done a lot to justify the hype, so far. |
Yeah I think you’ve got it spot on there, as I do feel like Redmond can be poor sometimes, but some people do seem to just automatically dislike him (but like how people are with Stephens and other players), especially when he doesn’t have the greatest of games, but even when he does he can be very much overshadowed.
And with Tella, I originally was liking him and his potential, but after his most recent run of games, I’m starting to see that he’s not as good as certain people have made him out to be, and for our upcoming games I’d probably leave them both out, would probably ether prefer Elynousie and S Armstrong on the wings with Broja and Adams up front, but if we were to play one them maybe putting Redmond in there over Elynousie would be best, but I really don’t want Tella starting after how he’s been recently | |
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| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 22:31 - Feb 1 with 564 views | saintwizzler |
| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 22:13 - Feb 1 by ElijahK |
Yeah I think you’ve got it spot on there, as I do feel like Redmond can be poor sometimes, but some people do seem to just automatically dislike him (but like how people are with Stephens and other players), especially when he doesn’t have the greatest of games, but even when he does he can be very much overshadowed.
And with Tella, I originally was liking him and his potential, but after his most recent run of games, I’m starting to see that he’s not as good as certain people have made him out to be, and for our upcoming games I’d probably leave them both out, would probably ether prefer Elynousie and S Armstrong on the wings with Broja and Adams up front, but if we were to play one them maybe putting Redmond in there over Elynousie would be best, but I really don’t want Tella starting after how he’s been recently |
Nathan Redmond
Premier League Record
Appearances 255
Goals 27
Assists 26 |  |
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| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 22:54 - Feb 1 with 550 views | Bicester_North |
| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 22:31 - Feb 1 by saintwizzler |
Nathan Redmond
Premier League Record
Appearances 255
Goals 27
Assists 26 |
Players like Barnes at Leicester, Buendia or Saka usually have a goal or assist every 3-4 games
Redmond should have more with the minutes he’s played, he’s ok but we should definitely be looking for better | |
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| Soccernomics _ How Saints Will Be Run on 08:44 - Feb 2 with 450 views | saint901 |
Further, the theory of tracking players data in order to capitalise on their worth in a transfer market ignores some fundamental strategic issues.
If we owned Broja for example (I know we don't) and his value is increasing because he is doing well, would we have sold him in January of our data says that his value has peaked?
If we were just a nursery for players and our business model was all about the money and nothing else, we might have done and I suggest that we would then struggle to stay in the league. Short term gain and long term destruction of the business.
The value of the economic model has to come from improving the squad = improving the chances of staying in the EPL so that when we sell a player for £20m/£30m, he's not our best player but somebody who we think we can replace with talent from within or which we buy and develop. | | | |
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