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The Countdown begins. 23:28 - Nov 10 with 293134 viewspikeypaul



https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20190329T23&p0=1336&msg=Democr

1:19 pm today was the exact mid point from when the result that the Great British public had decided to leave the EU and the time 11pm March 29th 2019 that Democracy will be delivered.

Happy days.
[Post edited 25 Jun 17:01]

🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧
Poll: Next major war involving UK against a super power ?

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The Countdown begins. on 17:35 - Mar 28 with 1211 viewsWATP

The Countdown begins. on 17:30 - Mar 28 by londonlisa2001

Call it a hunch, but I'm not certain you understand the way tariffs work.


Come on then explain to me how the Eu will gain from a tariff war with the U.K. ?
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The Countdown begins. on 17:37 - Mar 28 with 1203 viewsBatterseajack

The Countdown begins. on 17:34 - Mar 28 by WATP

Of course the consumer picks up the bill, same as the Eu consumer would have to pick up the bill, if tariffs were imposed on them.


soooooo, if we import more from the EU than we export to it, who gets hurt the most if we both slap on tariffs? The british voters? or the citizens of the EU republic?
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The Countdown begins. on 17:37 - Mar 28 with 1200 viewsBatterseajack

The Countdown begins. on 17:35 - Mar 28 by WATP

Come on then explain to me how the Eu will gain from a tariff war with the U.K. ?


No winners, but the EU would lose far less
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The Countdown begins. on 17:40 - Mar 28 with 1195 viewsWATP

The Countdown begins. on 17:37 - Mar 28 by Batterseajack

No winners, but the EU would lose far less


That’s nonsense
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The Countdown begins. on 17:42 - Mar 28 with 1188 viewsHumpty

The Countdown begins. on 17:25 - Mar 28 by WATP

If I after to take the medicine then I’d take it.
Why do we have to agree to anything so we can have tariff free access ?
Believe me they want access to our markets just as much as we want theirs.

As I said I hope the Eu do impose tariffs and we then respond in kind.
That may well set of an political earthquake in the Eu.
Can you imagine a French farmer, or German carmaker , or Spanish tourist worker being told very sorry you are losing your job and livelihood but we have to punish the Brits and send a warning to others of making the same decision as the British have made.
[Post edited 28 Mar 17:31]


I know you're a big fan of Trump but trade wars aren't actually good and aren't actually easy to win.
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The Countdown begins. on 17:52 - Mar 28 with 1176 viewsWATP

The Countdown begins. on 17:42 - Mar 28 by Humpty

I know you're a big fan of Trump but trade wars aren't actually good and aren't actually easy to win.


If a trade war breaks out, I’m confident it won’t be started by the British.
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The Countdown begins. on 17:53 - Mar 28 with 1174 viewsHumpty

The Countdown begins. on 17:52 - Mar 28 by WATP

If a trade war breaks out, I’m confident it won’t be started by the British.


But you think we'll win it?
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The Countdown begins. on 18:00 - Mar 28 with 1164 viewsWATP

The Countdown begins. on 17:53 - Mar 28 by Humpty

But you think we'll win it?


Cool
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The Countdown begins. on 18:02 - Mar 28 with 1161 viewslondonlisa2001

The Countdown begins. on 17:35 - Mar 28 by WATP

Come on then explain to me how the Eu will gain from a tariff war with the U.K. ?


You said in one post that we buy more from them than they do from us.

Which as I said, is correct. (As I also said, we sell about 13% of the value of our economy to them, they sell about 3% of the value of theirs to us).

The deficit is approximately £80bn.

You then said that if tariffs are in place, we will gain more revenue from them than the other way round. Which by definition, is nonsense if trade stays the same.

As an example, if we sell them £100, and they sell us £180 (just to make the figures easy), it costs us £80 net.

If a 5% tariff is imposed, we now sell them £105 and they now sell us £189. So it now costs us £84.

It costs us £4 extra for the same exchange of goods.

Now in practice, trade won't stay the same. Your actual argument should have been that if a 5% tariff causes a 10% reduction in trade, that would hurt them more as you would now have us selling £94.5 to them and them selling £170.1 to us, which is now £75.6 net.

But that ignores two things. One is the relative price elasticity of imports and exports (which means that certain goods can go up in price without causing so much of a downturn in demand whereas others go up in price a tiny amount and lead to a big downturn in demand). And the second is that, as I said, our trade with the EU represents 13% of our economy, whereas the other way round, it's 3%. So a reduction in trade of 10% hits us by 1.3% of our economy, and for them hits their economy by only 0.3%.

And although we are now paying £170.1 rather than £189, we still have to purchase the missing goods from elsewhere. We also have to find a place to sell the missing goods we were previously exporting. If there are tariffs in place with those countries, we still lose out in overall terms on that exchange of goods and services.

The reason that tariffs may work, of course, is that the price of imports are now more expensive for us, so we could make them ourselves. That is exactly what Trump is trying to do with Chinese steel. He imposes tariffs in order to make imported steel less attractive and to stimulate the US steel industry. But it costs more for the companies that buy steel (which is why the Dow dropped by 5% immediately after the announcement). And that relies anyway on us having replacements that we can source from within the UK. How long would it take us to set up the manufacturing capability to make our own cars to replace the ones we no longer buy from Germany and France?

Edited to add - i am talking about the impact on the British consumer by the way, as the way tariffs are imposed results in a mismatch between consumer and government. So just to be clear.
[Post edited 28 Mar 18:10]
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The Countdown begins. on 18:14 - Mar 28 with 1142 viewslondonlisa2001

The Countdown begins. on 17:30 - Mar 28 by Batterseajack

Im checking with you, becuase your more knowledgable than me on this, but if the UK were to slap a tariff on EU goods entering this country, it will effectively be the government taxing their own citizens on items purchased from the EU. i.e. the consumer would be paying this, not the exporter. Since we import more from the EU than the export to it, British citizens would pay the most.
[Post edited 28 Mar 17:31]


Yep. It's an internal tax effectively, so because we import more, the British consumer loses out as we pay more in tariffs than the consumers of the other EU countries do.
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The Countdown begins. on 18:20 - Mar 28 with 1136 viewsWATP

The Countdown begins. on 18:02 - Mar 28 by londonlisa2001

You said in one post that we buy more from them than they do from us.

Which as I said, is correct. (As I also said, we sell about 13% of the value of our economy to them, they sell about 3% of the value of theirs to us).

The deficit is approximately £80bn.

You then said that if tariffs are in place, we will gain more revenue from them than the other way round. Which by definition, is nonsense if trade stays the same.

As an example, if we sell them £100, and they sell us £180 (just to make the figures easy), it costs us £80 net.

If a 5% tariff is imposed, we now sell them £105 and they now sell us £189. So it now costs us £84.

It costs us £4 extra for the same exchange of goods.

Now in practice, trade won't stay the same. Your actual argument should have been that if a 5% tariff causes a 10% reduction in trade, that would hurt them more as you would now have us selling £94.5 to them and them selling £170.1 to us, which is now £75.6 net.

But that ignores two things. One is the relative price elasticity of imports and exports (which means that certain goods can go up in price without causing so much of a downturn in demand whereas others go up in price a tiny amount and lead to a big downturn in demand). And the second is that, as I said, our trade with the EU represents 13% of our economy, whereas the other way round, it's 3%. So a reduction in trade of 10% hits us by 1.3% of our economy, and for them hits their economy by only 0.3%.

And although we are now paying £170.1 rather than £189, we still have to purchase the missing goods from elsewhere. We also have to find a place to sell the missing goods we were previously exporting. If there are tariffs in place with those countries, we still lose out in overall terms on that exchange of goods and services.

The reason that tariffs may work, of course, is that the price of imports are now more expensive for us, so we could make them ourselves. That is exactly what Trump is trying to do with Chinese steel. He imposes tariffs in order to make imported steel less attractive and to stimulate the US steel industry. But it costs more for the companies that buy steel (which is why the Dow dropped by 5% immediately after the announcement). And that relies anyway on us having replacements that we can source from within the UK. How long would it take us to set up the manufacturing capability to make our own cars to replace the ones we no longer buy from Germany and France?

Edited to add - i am talking about the impact on the British consumer by the way, as the way tariffs are imposed results in a mismatch between consumer and government. So just to be clear.
[Post edited 28 Mar 18:10]


I know you like indicators and forecasts, so according to civitas , If the U.K. went for WTO rules, the U.K. would pay around £5.2. Billion in tariffs and the Eu would pay £12.9 billion in tariffs.
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The Countdown begins. on 18:26 - Mar 28 with 1132 viewsWATP

The Countdown begins. on 18:14 - Mar 28 by londonlisa2001

Yep. It's an internal tax effectively, so because we import more, the British consumer loses out as we pay more in tariffs than the consumers of the other EU countries do.


The British consumer would turn to other less expensive products and would only pay more if they bought the tariff added product, French wine for example hit by a 5 % tariff , just pick up an South African bottle which would be cheaper as no tariff has been imposed on it.
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The Countdown begins. on 18:28 - Mar 28 with 1130 viewsHighjack

Can you all stop derailing Pikey's excellent countdown thread with your financial bollocks please.

Three hundred and something days AIAFL SIUYRL!

The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
Poll: What’s your favourite crock?

1
The Countdown begins. on 18:44 - Mar 28 with 1118 viewslondonlisa2001

The Countdown begins. on 18:20 - Mar 28 by WATP

I know you like indicators and forecasts, so according to civitas , If the U.K. went for WTO rules, the U.K. would pay around £5.2. Billion in tariffs and the Eu would pay £12.9 billion in tariffs.


And the report went on to explain that the 'cost' is paid by importers not exporters which is as I stated in my previous post.

In other words, it's the UK consumer who pays the £12.9bn they calculated and the EU consumer who pays the £5.2bn. It's neutral for the country overall (government collects what consumer pays).

I've cut and paste below from the report you reference:

"Some commentators on the first edition of this paper noted that we had not explicitly stated that consumers ultimately pay import duties. The purpose of the analysis, as stated in the opening paragraph, was to determine the potential tariff implications for both UK and EU exporters in the event a free trade deal had not been reached by the time the UK exits the European Union. Despite suggestions otherwise, the report does not make an assumption tariffs are paid by exporters.

The failure to explicitly state the fact that tariffs (or customs duties) are paid by the importer is only a result of a failure to realise it needed stating. The fact that tariffs are paid by the importer and, as stated, the value of the tariff is calculated based on the import value (the value the buyer has paid for the good) is not forgotten, and it is the reason the data published was based on import values (See footnote 3). However, the impact of tariffs will be shared by both; the consumer, who will either cover the tariff cost by purchasing the good at a higher price or choose not purchase the product (potentially buying an alternative); and the exporters, who may find that the tariff leads to a fall in demand or who may have to adjust their business model in a way that absorbs the cost and allows them to sell the product at a competitive price despite the tariffs."
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The Countdown begins. on 18:44 - Mar 28 with 1118 viewspikeypaul

Good boy High jack.

366 AFLI

SIUYRL

1 year tomorrow and we are officially fecking out of the unelected,unanswerable club.

I predict the crying of the remoaners who do not believe in democracy only to get louder and I fecking luv it.

🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧 🇬🇧
Poll: Next major war involving UK against a super power ?

0
The Countdown begins. on 18:47 - Mar 28 with 1111 viewslondonlisa2001

The Countdown begins. on 18:26 - Mar 28 by WATP

The British consumer would turn to other less expensive products and would only pay more if they bought the tariff added product, French wine for example hit by a 5 % tariff , just pick up an South African bottle which would be cheaper as no tariff has been imposed on it.


You're assuming we have a free trade agreement with SA.

And assuming that people are that price sensitive. If that was the case no one would buy a German car at the moment because they cost a lot more than cars from Korea.
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The Countdown begins. on 19:03 - Mar 28 with 1090 viewsWATP

The Countdown begins. on 18:47 - Mar 28 by londonlisa2001

You're assuming we have a free trade agreement with SA.

And assuming that people are that price sensitive. If that was the case no one would buy a German car at the moment because they cost a lot more than cars from Korea.


And maybe the Eu consumers aren’t that price sensitive , therefore U.K. will still be able to sell it’s good and services into the Eu. Win , win.
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The Countdown begins. on 19:07 - Mar 28 with 1085 viewsDJack

The Countdown begins. on 19:03 - Mar 28 by WATP

And maybe the Eu consumers aren’t that price sensitive , therefore U.K. will still be able to sell it’s good and services into the Eu. Win , win.


"And maybe the Eu consumers aren’t that price sensitive"

I'll give you a clue from the German's...Aldi and Lidl are amongst the biggest retailers in the world and can you guess what their customers want?

It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan

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The Countdown begins. on 19:14 - Mar 28 with 1078 viewslondonlisa2001

The Countdown begins. on 19:03 - Mar 28 by WATP

And maybe the Eu consumers aren’t that price sensitive , therefore U.K. will still be able to sell it’s good and services into the Eu. Win , win.


Let me ask you a question.

Which industry do you think is easier to replicate in a different country.

- financial services
- car manufacture
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The Countdown begins. on 19:47 - Mar 28 with 1061 viewsWATP

The Countdown begins. on 19:14 - Mar 28 by londonlisa2001

Let me ask you a question.

Which industry do you think is easier to replicate in a different country.

- financial services
- car manufacture


That’s irrelevant , because come post Brexit, London will still retain its place as financial
Capital of the world.

And as I’ve already said, it’s not all about economics , if it was we may as well get rid of democracy and even governments , and have the CEO’s from BMW , Apple, Microsoft and other multi-nationals make all the decisions for us. Maybe you’d like that.
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The Countdown begins. on 20:37 - Mar 28 with 1031 viewslondonlisa2001

The Countdown begins. on 19:47 - Mar 28 by WATP

That’s irrelevant , because come post Brexit, London will still retain its place as financial
Capital of the world.

And as I’ve already said, it’s not all about economics , if it was we may as well get rid of democracy and even governments , and have the CEO’s from BMW , Apple, Microsoft and other multi-nationals make all the decisions for us. Maybe you’d like that.


It's not irrelevant. It's just uncomfortable for you to answer.

But you're not interested in discussion, just in deflection. So enough.
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The Countdown begins. on 20:42 - Mar 28 with 1027 viewsexiledclaseboy

The Countdown begins. on 20:37 - Mar 28 by londonlisa2001

It's not irrelevant. It's just uncomfortable for you to answer.

But you're not interested in discussion, just in deflection. So enough.


You’d swear you’d never been through all this with him before mun.

Poll: Who will you vote for on 8 June?

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The Countdown begins. on 20:44 - Mar 28 with 1022 viewslondonlisa2001

The Countdown begins. on 20:42 - Mar 28 by exiledclaseboy

You’d swear you’d never been through all this with him before mun.


I know. But it amuses me on an otherwise dull and rainy afternoon.
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The Countdown begins. on 20:45 - Mar 28 with 1020 viewsWATP

The Countdown begins. on 20:37 - Mar 28 by londonlisa2001

It's not irrelevant. It's just uncomfortable for you to answer.

But you're not interested in discussion, just in deflection. So enough.


it’s not uncomfortable for me, the opposite in fact. I’m very happy that the days of being in the Eu are numbered.

I think it’s you Lisa that’s finding the whole situation rather uncomfortable and it’s you that needs to come to terms with the reality of what is happening .

Enjoy the rest of your evening 👍
[Post edited 29 Mar 5:51]
1
The Countdown begins. on 21:12 - Mar 28 with 1004 viewsLeonWasGod

The Countdown begins. on 18:28 - Mar 28 by Highjack

Can you all stop derailing Pikey's excellent countdown thread with your financial bollocks please.

Three hundred and something days AIAFL SIUYRL!


Yeak f*ck the squirrels!
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