| Wales and the print media 18:10 - Dec 4 with 5682 views | johnlangy |
The UK press regularly portray Wales as a begging bowl country that has to go cap in hand to Westminster to bail it out. They do this by stating that Wales has a fiscal deficit of £13 billion, that being the difference between Welsh expenditure (£43 billion) and Welsh revenue or taxes (£30 billion). These are the latest figures I’ve seen them quote.
Every proud Welsh person would wish this was not the case. But this is what the UK national newspapers tell us and many people believe it to be the truth.
So, if someone said that that figure was not correct, that the real figure was far less you would all, I would have thought, be glad to hear it. And you’d want to know what the reality was.
It is a statement of fact that many Welsh taxes are registered at the HQ’s of large corporations almost exclusively based in England. And when they are registered in England they are classed as English tax. The amount of Welsh tax registered as English tax is in the billions. The only question is how many billions.
Welsh expenditure with regard to HS2 has been all over the news recently about the fact that Wales is contributing £5 billion toward the HS2 project while not an inch of track will be laid in Wales. As I say, this has been in many newspapers recently but those same papers while commenting on this travesty of fairness then ironically refer to the Welsh deficit that includes that £5 billion.
So if all Welsh taxes were registered as Welsh tax and we did not invest Welsh expenditure in English projects the Welsh fiscal deficit would be reduced substantially. The only question again is by how many billions.
I mention this again (i’ve done it before) because there are some people on this site and elsewhere who don’t want to hear it. They keep repeating the lie about the deficit and ignore the above.
So my question is, why do these posters, presumably Welsh people, ignore these facts ? Are they happy for Wales to be seen as a ‘begging bowl country ?
Perhaps they believe I’m wrong. But I responded with these arguments to one particular poster who quoted the fiscal deficit figures just a few weeks ago and I expected that person to respond, maybe to argue that they are right and I’m wrong. But they didn’t. They just ignored my post.
Maybe that person will respond this time. |  | | |  |
| Wales and the print media on 18:31 - Dec 4 with 2674 views | Catullus |
The big problem there is that you cannot quantify the numbers and it doesn'tmean that much unless the number is large enough to wipe out the deficit. So if the number is 3 billion then the deficit is still 10 billion.
Do you think the number is likely to be higher or lower than 13 billion? | |
| |
| Wales and the print media on 18:57 - Dec 4 with 2652 views | britferry |
its all made in the hole with the mint, so its all ours anyways | |
| |
| Wales and the print media on 18:58 - Dec 4 with 2648 views | johnlangy |
| Wales and the print media on 18:31 - Dec 4 by Catullus |
The big problem there is that you cannot quantify the numbers and it doesn'tmean that much unless the number is large enough to wipe out the deficit. So if the number is 3 billion then the deficit is still 10 billion.
Do you think the number is likely to be higher or lower than 13 billion? |
You're quite right cat. I can't quantify it. I've regularly suggested to Plaid for example that they'd have the resources to perform the work which would be substantial.
It's safe to say it would be lower than £13 billion simply because there are those taxes I mention. And that total may very well be £3 billion. Or it may be 4 or 5 billion.
What the figure would be for expenditure would require a good deal of work as well. The £5 billion on HS2 will be spread across a number of years as will other projects like Crossrail so, again, having the resources to work that out would preclude a normal Joe like me. | | | |
| Wales and the print media on 19:10 - Dec 4 with 2634 views | felixstowe_jack |
Only two regions in the entire UK raise more tax than they get in government funds. London and the South East.
Will only improve in Wales if Drakeford realises than business need to thrive in Wales. The need for decent infrastructure is vital. Drakeford has decided that NO new roads will be built in Wales hence the daily chaos in the Brynglas tunnels. More much needed bypasses also cancelled.
What business is going to set up west of Newport without roads. | |
| |
| Wales and the print media on 19:41 - Dec 4 with 2616 views | Catullus |
| Wales and the print media on 19:10 - Dec 4 by felixstowe_jack |
Only two regions in the entire UK raise more tax than they get in government funds. London and the South East.
Will only improve in Wales if Drakeford realises than business need to thrive in Wales. The need for decent infrastructure is vital. Drakeford has decided that NO new roads will be built in Wales hence the daily chaos in the Brynglas tunnels. More much needed bypasses also cancelled.
What business is going to set up west of Newport without roads. |
That's the big issue, Felix. For Wales to thrive the Senedd needs to build us up and they are stopping building roads, or doing anything much for infrastructure, while they assess the eco impacts and how to make Wales greener.
The truth is we cannot build what Wales needs and get even more eco-friendly, the two are fairly incompatible. In which case the Sened, by its own actions is dooming Wales to be a begging bowl country. Things won't improve unless the Senedd improves them. It's a vicious circle.
Or we could just accept that Wales is part of the UK and take what comes our way with some gratitude, even if we are in this state because way back when, our country was raped of its natural resources, which to my mind means that we deserve the subsidy because the English and Scottish took our wealth.
Drakeford spends a lot of time moaning about funding but there's a reason large chunks of Wales are doing so badly; it's the same reason large chunks of England are doing badly; the respective governments have been very busy building up the Capital cities and their surrounding areas but neglecting large swathes of the country. The Senedd is just like Westminster. | |
| |
| Wales and the print media on 21:21 - Dec 4 with 2570 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Wales and the print media on 18:31 - Dec 4 by Catullus |
The big problem there is that you cannot quantify the numbers and it doesn'tmean that much unless the number is large enough to wipe out the deficit. So if the number is 3 billion then the deficit is still 10 billion.
Do you think the number is likely to be higher or lower than 13 billion? |
Nope.
The real question is can Cymru afford to stay in the UK’s failing union.
For example, UK general government gross debt was £2,224.5 billion at the end of financial year ending March 2021, equivalent to 106.0% of gross domestic product (GDP).
Put simply, Cymru cannot afford to stay. |  |
| Beware of the Risen People
|
| |
| Wales and the print media on 21:33 - Dec 4 with 2563 views | Catullus |
| Wales and the print media on 21:21 - Dec 4 by Kilkennyjack |
Nope.
The real question is can Cymru afford to stay in the UK’s failing union.
For example, UK general government gross debt was £2,224.5 billion at the end of financial year ending March 2021, equivalent to 106.0% of gross domestic product (GDP).
Put simply, Cymru cannot afford to stay. |
As Drakeford keeps saying, if we leave, what currency do we use? How do we repay our share of the UK debt? That number is now up over 330 million before we even start.
It's yet more circles, maybe one day you will give a reasoned answer to such questions and not just spout inane soundbites. | |
| |
| Wales and the print media on 21:33 - Dec 4 with 2563 views | Professor |
| Wales and the print media on 19:41 - Dec 4 by Catullus |
That's the big issue, Felix. For Wales to thrive the Senedd needs to build us up and they are stopping building roads, or doing anything much for infrastructure, while they assess the eco impacts and how to make Wales greener.
The truth is we cannot build what Wales needs and get even more eco-friendly, the two are fairly incompatible. In which case the Sened, by its own actions is dooming Wales to be a begging bowl country. Things won't improve unless the Senedd improves them. It's a vicious circle.
Or we could just accept that Wales is part of the UK and take what comes our way with some gratitude, even if we are in this state because way back when, our country was raped of its natural resources, which to my mind means that we deserve the subsidy because the English and Scottish took our wealth.
Drakeford spends a lot of time moaning about funding but there's a reason large chunks of Wales are doing so badly; it's the same reason large chunks of England are doing badly; the respective governments have been very busy building up the Capital cities and their surrounding areas but neglecting large swathes of the country. The Senedd is just like Westminster. |
Poor educational standards don’t help at all levels.
Welsh universities are pretty mediocre, Swansea is pretty progressive and Cardiff has a few strengths, but none are really close to the top tier.
Expectations are often low and there is no real entrepreneurial culture. It becomes a vicious circle of underachievement. | | | |
Login to get fewer ads
| Wales and the print media on 22:13 - Dec 4 with 2539 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Wales and the print media on 21:21 - Dec 4 by Kilkennyjack |
Nope.
The real question is can Cymru afford to stay in the UK’s failing union.
For example, UK general government gross debt was £2,224.5 billion at the end of financial year ending March 2021, equivalent to 106.0% of gross domestic product (GDP).
Put simply, Cymru cannot afford to stay. |
The trouble is Scotland has a current spending deficit of 22.4% of its GDP. The UK deficit is 14.2% while Wales is somewhere between the two. Neither Scotland or Wales could finance independence on those taxation and spending figures. Of course England deficit would considerably reduce without Scotland and Wales.
Of course that is why a United Kingdom is better for everyone spreading the wealth to the poorer parts of the UK.
A bit like the EU really, the rich countries subsidies the poorer countries.
Strange how some people think Wales and Scotland would be better off without the UK subsidies but better off with the much smaller EU subsidies and having the euro in their pockets. | |
| |
| Wales and the print media on 09:25 - Dec 5 with 2450 views | Flynnidine_Zidownes |
| Wales and the print media on 21:33 - Dec 4 by Catullus |
As Drakeford keeps saying, if we leave, what currency do we use? How do we repay our share of the UK debt? That number is now up over 330 million before we even start.
It's yet more circles, maybe one day you will give a reasoned answer to such questions and not just spout inane soundbites. |
If the looneys in plaid get their way we’ll be using the Euro. | | | |
| Wales and the print media on 12:10 - Dec 5 with 2394 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Wales and the print media on 21:33 - Dec 4 by Catullus |
As Drakeford keeps saying, if we leave, what currency do we use? How do we repay our share of the UK debt? That number is now up over 330 million before we even start.
It's yet more circles, maybe one day you will give a reasoned answer to such questions and not just spout inane soundbites. |
This is like a husband who runs up debts on booze, gambling and hookers saying that half the liability lies with his poor wife.
So she cant leave him.
And so he can carry on hitting her.
She can do nothing.
Luckily Cymru owes nothing for decisions not made by the people of wales or the Welsh Govt.
International law will protect Cymru.
Next ? | |
| Beware of the Risen People
|
| |
| Wales and the print media on 12:35 - Dec 5 with 2380 views | Catullus |
| Wales and the print media on 12:10 - Dec 5 by Kilkennyjack |
This is like a husband who runs up debts on booze, gambling and hookers saying that half the liability lies with his poor wife.
So she cant leave him.
And so he can carry on hitting her.
She can do nothing.
Luckily Cymru owes nothing for decisions not made by the people of wales or the Welsh Govt.
International law will protect Cymru.
Next ? |
International law would demand we pay our debts. We are, legally speaking, part of the UK and we receive a large subsidy from Westminster. Internationally Wales is considered part of the UK.
If we left the UK, then refused to pay our share of the debt, what do you reckon our credit rating would be?
Then try applying to the EU, would they want a broke country that defaults on debts to be a member.
It seems you are quite happy to shaft millions of other UK citizens to get your way. Besides that, your analogy is ridiculous. Even so, if the credit card is in joint names the wife would legally be responsible for part of the debt.
Myself and my wife have a joint bank account, if she blew all our savings on the horses, I couldn't demand half of it back.
PS, starting life as a bankrupt indy nation isn't recommended,
https://bizfluent.com/about-7512012-happens-country-declares-bankruptcy.html | |
| |
| Wales and the print media on 12:37 - Dec 5 with 2380 views | controversial_jack |
I doubt any country / government raises enough from taxes etc to finance itself and be self sufficient. They all have to borrow to do so. It's why affluent countries like the Uk and US have such big national debts and are impossible to pay back. An independent Wales would be no different. | | | |
| Wales and the print media on 12:49 - Dec 5 with 2375 views | Catullus |
| Wales and the print media on 12:37 - Dec 5 by controversial_jack |
I doubt any country / government raises enough from taxes etc to finance itself and be self sufficient. They all have to borrow to do so. It's why affluent countries like the Uk and US have such big national debts and are impossible to pay back. An independent Wales would be no different. |
That much is true, most countries have debt. The big thing is the credit rating. Wales would need to establish a currency (or accept Bank of England jurisdiction on financial regulations) and then, when we looked to borrow to fund our needs, that borrowing would be expensive as a new nation with a bad credit rating.
We would all suffer the financial consequences. How would we set up the institutions we need and pay the wages? | |
| |
| Wales and the print media on 12:54 - Dec 5 with 2373 views | johnlangy |
There's a bit more detail there than in my calculations  .
Going back to cat's response, he mentions a possible £3 billion for the Welsh/English tax re-calculation. If the expenditure was £1 billion that would bring the £13 down to £9 billion. And if the tax figure turned out to be £4 or even £5 billion then it could be down to £7 billion.
I'm one of the posters arguing for Welsh Independence. If Wales was Independent the other very obvious expenditure saving would be on the cost of the armed forces. The Welsh share is currently around £2.3 billion. That figure would drop by around £2 billion if we spent at a proportionate level compared with Eire. So then we could be talking about £5 billion.
I know it's all basic stuff that i'm coming out with and i'm certainly no expert. But i'm simply making the point that we need to know the actual figure taking all these things into account to come up with a valid opinion.
These types of reports (GERW) have been carried out regularly by various governments over the years. It's worth noting that Professor Phil Williams interrogated these reports going back to just after the second world war. And found that the Welsh economy was essentially balanced over the decades. Sometimes in surplus, sometimes not but neither to any degree.
Then, all of a sudden the GERW report covering 94/95 showed a Welsh deficit of £5.7 billion ! Did Wales suddenly become a third world country ? Over a decade or so ?
Something had to have changed in that period and it can only be the way the figures are calculated. Maybe before that revenue numbers did include ALL Welsh taxes for example.
Anyway, to repeat myself, what we need to know is the actual figures measured correctly. | | | |
| Wales and the print media on 16:25 - Dec 5 with 2327 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Wales and the print media on 12:54 - Dec 5 by johnlangy |
There's a bit more detail there than in my calculations .
Going back to cat's response, he mentions a possible £3 billion for the Welsh/English tax re-calculation. If the expenditure was £1 billion that would bring the £13 down to £9 billion. And if the tax figure turned out to be £4 or even £5 billion then it could be down to £7 billion.
I'm one of the posters arguing for Welsh Independence. If Wales was Independent the other very obvious expenditure saving would be on the cost of the armed forces. The Welsh share is currently around £2.3 billion. That figure would drop by around £2 billion if we spent at a proportionate level compared with Eire. So then we could be talking about £5 billion.
I know it's all basic stuff that i'm coming out with and i'm certainly no expert. But i'm simply making the point that we need to know the actual figure taking all these things into account to come up with a valid opinion.
These types of reports (GERW) have been carried out regularly by various governments over the years. It's worth noting that Professor Phil Williams interrogated these reports going back to just after the second world war. And found that the Welsh economy was essentially balanced over the decades. Sometimes in surplus, sometimes not but neither to any degree.
Then, all of a sudden the GERW report covering 94/95 showed a Welsh deficit of £5.7 billion ! Did Wales suddenly become a third world country ? Over a decade or so ?
Something had to have changed in that period and it can only be the way the figures are calculated. Maybe before that revenue numbers did include ALL Welsh taxes for example.
Anyway, to repeat myself, what we need to know is the actual figures measured correctly. |
Have you worked out the cost and loss of income tax etc of all government jobs that would have to return to England, DVLA , HMRC Cardiff, Land Registry office to name a few. Currently over 20% of jobs in Wales are public sector compared to 15% in England. | |
| |
| Wales and the print media on 16:36 - Dec 5 with 2325 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Wales and the print media on 16:25 - Dec 5 by felixstowe_jack |
Have you worked out the cost and loss of income tax etc of all government jobs that would have to return to England, DVLA , HMRC Cardiff, Land Registry office to name a few. Currently over 20% of jobs in Wales are public sector compared to 15% in England. |
15% of England is a lot more jobs than 20% of Wales.
All the activities like DWP , HMRC etc coming into Wales would easily replace any lost jobs.
Lots of savings regards not bombing farmers in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Somalia any more. A peace dividend. | |
| Beware of the Risen People
|
| |
| Wales and the print media on 16:41 - Dec 5 with 2318 views | Dr_Winston |
| Wales and the print media on 16:25 - Dec 5 by felixstowe_jack |
Have you worked out the cost and loss of income tax etc of all government jobs that would have to return to England, DVLA , HMRC Cardiff, Land Registry office to name a few. Currently over 20% of jobs in Wales are public sector compared to 15% in England. |
At least 3000 workers at the DVLA would be out of a job for a start. Probably even more than that. |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
| |
| Wales and the print media on 17:29 - Dec 5 with 2300 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Wales and the print media on 16:41 - Dec 5 by Dr_Winston |
At least 3000 workers at the DVLA would be out of a job for a start. Probably even more than that. |
They would take on incoming work from DWP, HMRC, and all the other offices of state that provide services for Cymru from England.
They will need to recruit more people. | |
| Beware of the Risen People
|
| |
| Wales and the print media on 17:44 - Dec 5 with 2291 views | Dr_Winston |
No, all the people who currently work for DWP and HMRC within Wales will carry on with those jobs, apart from the people who have responsibility for work outside Wales, who will lose theirs.
Independence would put tens of thousands of civil servants out of work, unless of course taxes are raised to keep them in jobs that serve no purpose, in which case they'll keep their jobs until the country goes bust, and then they'll lose them anyway. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
| |
| Wales and the print media on 17:57 - Dec 5 with 2288 views | johnlangy |
| Wales and the print media on 16:25 - Dec 5 by felixstowe_jack |
Have you worked out the cost and loss of income tax etc of all government jobs that would have to return to England, DVLA , HMRC Cardiff, Land Registry office to name a few. Currently over 20% of jobs in Wales are public sector compared to 15% in England. |
Responses like this baffle me. Also Dr_Winston's post.
DVLA/HMRC/LAND REGISTRY would account for about 8000 jobs at a guess. The UK Civil Service employs about 450,000 people. How many of the Civil Service departments offices are based in England and how many people working in those depts are doing work on Wales' behalf which would transfer to Wales to replace jobs lost in DVLA etc ?
The answer is I don't know and you don't know. But why do you take the negative, about jobs that would be lost from Wales to England ,without accepting the positive of the jobs that would be gained by those transferring from England tp Wales ? | | | |
| Wales and the print media on 17:58 - Dec 5 with 2287 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Wales and the print media on 17:44 - Dec 5 by Dr_Winston |
No, all the people who currently work for DWP and HMRC within Wales will carry on with those jobs, apart from the people who have responsibility for work outside Wales, who will lose theirs.
Independence would put tens of thousands of civil servants out of work, unless of course taxes are raised to keep them in jobs that serve no purpose, in which case they'll keep their jobs until the country goes bust, and then they'll lose them anyway. |
Wiki tells us that … There are currently 23 ministerial departments, 20 non-ministerial departments and 413 agencies and other public bodies.
Plenty to replace any work that moves from Wales to England.
I would recruit refugees to give us the numbers we will need. | |
| Beware of the Risen People
|
| |
| Wales and the print media on 18:02 - Dec 5 with 2283 views | Dr_Winston |
| Wales and the print media on 17:57 - Dec 5 by johnlangy |
Responses like this baffle me. Also Dr_Winston's post.
DVLA/HMRC/LAND REGISTRY would account for about 8000 jobs at a guess. The UK Civil Service employs about 450,000 people. How many of the Civil Service departments offices are based in England and how many people working in those depts are doing work on Wales' behalf which would transfer to Wales to replace jobs lost in DVLA etc ?
The answer is I don't know and you don't know. But why do you take the negative, about jobs that would be lost from Wales to England ,without accepting the positive of the jobs that would be gained by those transferring from England tp Wales ? |
Because there would hardly be any. It is that simple.
Central Government functions concerning Wales are almost all managed by Welsh civil servants in Welsh locations already (DEFRA, NHS etc), whereas there are many thousands of Welsh civil servants doing jobs concerning England, of which the DVLA and HMRC are primary examples.
Do you seriously think that enough roles will be relocated to cover even the DVLA losses of 4000+? Of course not. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
| |
| Wales and the print media on 18:23 - Dec 5 with 2276 views | Wingstandwood |
| Wales and the print media on 17:29 - Dec 5 by Kilkennyjack |
They would take on incoming work from DWP, HMRC, and all the other offices of state that provide services for Cymru from England.
They will need to recruit more people. |
Ahhhh as simple and easy as that then!
I previously asked on here what would happen under full independence when Welsh patients would require ENGLISH NHS specialty service at ENGLISH NHS specialty centers at ENGLISH NHS: Moorfields London, Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham , Great Ormond Street, Clatterbridge Wirral, Royal Papworth Hospital etc?
The under-its-own-umbrella unconnected English NHS would be under no obligation whatsoever to service 'separatist' Wales, when all Welsh tax/NI would be spent on Wales! The NHS as we now know it, would be no more! English taxpayers on waiting lists would be outraged if their NHS had to service a fully independent Wales.
The Welsh NHS would in circumstance of full independence be an utterly separate entity whilst being under full control of yokels that cannot even build vitally required road infrastructure.
Think! Under the full control of Cardiff-centric dim-wits who took years to provide vitally required scanner and radiotherapy equipment in Singleton Hospital! And they only did that because a leading SW Wales NHS cancer clinician resigned in protest at the lack of Welsh Government action!
And I also asked what would happen to the requirement for LONDON Westminster-funded RAF Sea-King provision to take patients to ENGLISH specialty centers! Well anyhow, the answer I got was Welsh patients (in a dire medical emergency?) would pop over to Europe, with help from Europe.
Ahhhhh as simple and as easy as that! |  |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
