| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival 19:55 - Dec 23 with 8564 views | Jack_Kass |
A lot is made of the ‘bottom at Xmas tag’, and statistically it can be seen as the kiss of death, with only 12% of teams having avoided relegation from this position*, with the three survivors being (WBA (2005), Sunderland (2014), Leicester (2015).
But, the asterix next to that statistic, is Swansea City (2016), as we were effectively joint bottom, and level on points with Hull City on Xmas day last year, and as we all knew, survived! So to flip that statistic in a positive manner, the past 3 consecutive seasons have seen the team/s with the lowest points on Xmas day survive, here’s hoping for for a 4th!
But, what fails to be mentioned alongside the ‘xmas curse’, is that Xmas Day can fall at different points in the season, in terms of games played, e.g in 2016 it was Round 17, with 19 not coming until NYD, and this year Game 19 has already been played, a whole 9 days earlier than last year.
So let’s look at Game 19, statistically, as a benchmark for the season, rather than the 25th of December. Game 19 being the half way mark, and theoretically, meaning we have played every team in the league (but not always strictly true).
Below is a summary of 18th position (highest relegation spot) at Game 19, over the last 10 seasons, with their points total, and their points per game average, with the credentials of the team who were relegated that season in 18th position, to the right, There is also the difference between the two avg points totals.
So with Game 19 already played in the 2017/2018 season, we now have the data available to make the prediction for the points total needed to survive relegation this year.
The avg points needed for the team in 18th to survive, from this point, is 19. It has been as high as 23 (2011), and as low as 12 (2010).
The avg rise in points per game for 18th position, from Game 19 to 38, is 0.07, predicting that the relegated team this year, will have 34.58 points (35). Although it has been as high as 0.21 (2008), and as low as -0.16 (2009,2010)
Using the data, we can predict that the magic number to survive this season will be 35 pts. Incidentally, 35 is also the exact average pts needed to survive over the last 10 years (perfect!)
So what does this leave Swansea City needing to do, in the second half of the season, to reach the total of 35 points?
In 2016/2017, Swansea City had 13 points from 19 games.
In 2017/2018, Swansea City have.. 13 points from 19 games.
Swansea City need a minimum of 22 points in the next 19 games, to meet our magic number and survive, 1 point more than we would have needed to survive, last season.
Last year, we amassed a total of 29 points over the second half of the season! An average of 1.53 pts per game. That will certainly do again this year, can we repeat it?
Swansea City will need to improve their average points total by 0.48 points per game to reach this total, last season they improved their second half total by 0.90 points per game. An improvement of 0.48 points looks relatively easy!
Statistically, the club is in an incredibly similar position to the one they faced last season, with 13 pts from 19 games. They have scored less goals, but also conceded less, with a goal difference today of -15, compared to -23, this time last year.
Not rocket science to any fan, we need points, and soon.
The key notable difference for me, from this time last year, to now, being..
Last year we were at 19 games played when Clement came in, and rocketed us up the table, thereafter.
This year, we are already at 19 games played, with seemingly no idea of who is going to be in charge, or in how many games time?
Will we have a team/manager in place, over the next few months, to repeat the scenario of last year?
We did it just one year ago, can we do it again? Does lightning strike twice? Let's all hope so.
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:14 - Dec 29 with 2287 views | sherpajacob |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 11:16 - Dec 29 by max936 |
Gonna need 38 pts minimum to stay up this year, more than likely it'll be 40pts though. |
All the teams from 14th place down are averaging less than a point a game. Eg 38 for the season.
I reckon 37 will be enough and maybe even 36 or 35.
We've never taken it to the last day, would make it exciting if we did this year. |  |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:29 - Dec 29 with 2272 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:14 - Dec 29 by sherpajacob |
All the teams from 14th place down are averaging less than a point a game. Eg 38 for the season.
I reckon 37 will be enough and maybe even 36 or 35.
We've never taken it to the last day, would make it exciting if we did this year. |
Some teams at the bottom often pick up second half of the season when they have everything to play for and opponents have nothing to play for. |  |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:39 - Dec 29 with 2260 views | A_Fans_Dad |
We need at least one goal maker and one goal scorer in January to stand any chance at all. | | | |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:42 - Dec 29 with 2255 views | Jack_Kass |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:29 - Dec 29 by trampie |
Some teams at the bottom often pick up second half of the season when they have everything to play for and opponents have nothing to play for. |
Yes, thats the rise in average points per game discussed, from now until the end.
Only twice has that been negative in 10 years, and it averages out at 0.06 overall. [Post edited 29 Dec 2017 12:43]
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:43 - Dec 29 with 2252 views | Joe_bradshaw |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:39 - Dec 29 by A_Fans_Dad |
We need at least one goal maker and one goal scorer in January to stand any chance at all. |
Indeed, we need a number 9.
We literally haven’t got one. |  |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:45 - Dec 29 with 2247 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:11 - Dec 29 by Jack_Kass |
Yes but they are on the same points as 3 of the last 4 years, and the highest points total in that time was 37, the lowest 33. |
If you look at it from a relegated teams position 17th place had 40 pts last season. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:53 - Dec 29 with 2228 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:43 - Dec 29 by Joe_bradshaw |
Indeed, we need a number 9.
We literally haven’t got one. |
Bony and Abraham ?
Have we got a #10/attacking midfielder to replace Gylfi ? | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:57 - Dec 29 with 2219 views | Joe_bradshaw |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:53 - Dec 29 by trampie |
Bony and Abraham ?
Have we got a #10/attacking midfielder to replace Gylfi ? |
I said literally, Tramps. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:00 - Dec 29 with 2212 views | Jack_Kass |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:45 - Dec 29 by trampie |
If you look at it from a relegated teams position 17th place had 40 pts last season. |
Yes but we are not looking it from a relegated teams position, because they are relegated, and we are aiming for survival.
We are looking at the minimum we need to be above the line, in 17th position, which is survival.
18th and below is irrelevant, as if we do not reach the position of 17th then we do not survive, regardless. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:00 - Dec 29 with 2211 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:57 - Dec 29 by Joe_bradshaw |
I said literally, Tramps. |
You don't rate Bony and Abraham ? | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:04 - Dec 29 with 2205 views | Joe_bradshaw |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:00 - Dec 29 by trampie |
You don't rate Bony and Abraham ? |
I said we literally don’t have a number 9.
Come on, it’s not difficult. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:06 - Dec 29 with 2198 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:04 - Dec 29 by Joe_bradshaw |
I said we literally don’t have a number 9.
Come on, it’s not difficult. |
They play in the #9 role. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:18 - Dec 29 with 2176 views | Joe_bradshaw |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:06 - Dec 29 by trampie |
They play in the #9 role. |
Aye, but they’re literally number 2 and number 10. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:21 - Dec 29 with 2174 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:00 - Dec 29 by Jack_Kass |
Yes but we are not looking it from a relegated teams position, because they are relegated, and we are aiming for survival.
We are looking at the minimum we need to be above the line, in 17th position, which is survival.
18th and below is irrelevant, as if we do not reach the position of 17th then we do not survive, regardless. |
Yes we are in a relegation position bottom of the pile at the moment, we need to finish 17th, how many points will we need to finish 17th this season ?, Swans are in such a terrible position that I would take 36pts if offered now, but whether that would be enough who knows ? | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:25 - Dec 29 with 2161 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:18 - Dec 29 by Joe_bradshaw |
Aye, but they’re literally number 2 and number 10. |
Literally or actually....? | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:33 - Dec 29 with 2155 views | Jack_Kass |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:21 - Dec 29 by trampie |
Yes we are in a relegation position bottom of the pile at the moment, we need to finish 17th, how many points will we need to finish 17th this season ?, Swans are in such a terrible position that I would take 36pts if offered now, but whether that would be enough who knows ? |
Using the projection and averages over the previous 10 seasons, 35.
Using the data over the last 10 years, if we reach 35 points then there is a statistical likelyhood that there will be 3 teams below us at the end of the season.
If we reach 35 points and are still relegated then the final totals will be above average, and higher than projected, which of course can happen. [Post edited 29 Dec 2017 13:34]
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 15:38 - Dec 29 with 2105 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:33 - Dec 29 by Jack_Kass |
Using the projection and averages over the previous 10 seasons, 35.
Using the data over the last 10 years, if we reach 35 points then there is a statistical likelyhood that there will be 3 teams below us at the end of the season.
If we reach 35 points and are still relegated then the final totals will be above average, and higher than projected, which of course can happen. [Post edited 29 Dec 2017 13:34]
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I think what you just said is wrong, because looking at the list you put up of points achieved by the 18th place team, 35 pts would relegate a team 5 times, keep them up 4 times and put them on the same points as the relegated team once.
So using the figures you put up 55% of the time the team finishing on 35 pts would have gone down, assuming it was 50-50 who stayed up and who went down if 35pts was achieved.
Therefore you are fractionally more likely to go down than stay up on 35 points . | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 16:53 - Dec 29 with 2080 views | Jack_Kass |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 15:38 - Dec 29 by trampie |
I think what you just said is wrong, because looking at the list you put up of points achieved by the 18th place team, 35 pts would relegate a team 5 times, keep them up 4 times and put them on the same points as the relegated team once.
So using the figures you put up 55% of the time the team finishing on 35 pts would have gone down, assuming it was 50-50 who stayed up and who went down if 35pts was achieved.
Therefore you are fractionally more likely to go down than stay up on 35 points . |
You are not looking at in respect of the total points the 18th place team has at Game 19 or Game 20, and the average gap between the final team in 18th position, which is the correlation we're looking at, to make the projection.
The 18th placed team, Bournemouth, have 17 points at the moment.
Over the last 10 years, the average points needed to finish above the line, from Game 20, is 17.70 (18)
At the end of the season, the overall points total of the team in 18th, has amassed an average points per game rise of 0.06, from where they are now (game 20). Meaning that we can predict using Bournemouth's average (0.85), that the final team will have 0.91 points per game total, at Game 38, that equals a total of 34.58 (35)
3 out of the last 4 years, the 18th team had 17 points at Game 20, and 2/3 of those times (66%) 35 points was a total that was either the minimum, or above, needed to survive, i.e Norwich were relegated with 33 in 2014, and Hull were relegated with 35 in 2015. Newcastle went down with 37 in 2016.
The highest rise in average was in 2016 (from 17-37) and the lowest was in 2014 (from 17-33). The three totals still average at 0.07, which multiplied by 38, gives us a perfect 35!
I'm not pretending this is a complex bed of statistical analysis, and am using averages because as expected there are inconsistencies.
i.e in 2010, when West Ham had 18 points at this stage, and Burnley went down with 30 points, one of only two times in the last 10 years, that the average points total needed to stay up, from game 20, decreased. [Post edited 29 Dec 2017 17:09]
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 18:36 - Dec 29 with 2055 views | awayjack |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 12:53 - Dec 29 by trampie |
Bony and Abraham ?
Have we got a #10/attacking midfielder to replace Gylfi ? |
Yup we are desperate for a 10 but we haven't got a 9 of PL standard. Bony well past his best and constantly injured, as he's been for last two seasons so hardly a suprise.Tammy has huge potential but way out of his depth against PL defenders. I hope I'm proven wrong but don't expect 15 goals between them this season. Fer and Ayew May chip in with 8-10 goals but will cost us more the other end. |  | | |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 19:27 - Dec 29 with 2040 views | grampajack |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 18:36 - Dec 29 by awayjack |
Yup we are desperate for a 10 but we haven't got a 9 of PL standard. Bony well past his best and constantly injured, as he's been for last two seasons so hardly a suprise.Tammy has huge potential but way out of his depth against PL defenders. I hope I'm proven wrong but don't expect 15 goals between them this season. Fer and Ayew May chip in with 8-10 goals but will cost us more the other end. |
Unfortunately, this thread just indicates the true nature of statistics - you can get a number which appears to be within a sensible range of possible values but you are unable to control every, or even 1 variable and so there is no way of establishing whether the number is correct, or even suitable for the purpose of calculation until 'the fat lady sings'. Hindsight is an essential tool for the comprehension of any statistics.
Happy debating people.
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 07:34 - Dec 30 with 2011 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 16:53 - Dec 29 by Jack_Kass |
You are not looking at in respect of the total points the 18th place team has at Game 19 or Game 20, and the average gap between the final team in 18th position, which is the correlation we're looking at, to make the projection.
The 18th placed team, Bournemouth, have 17 points at the moment.
Over the last 10 years, the average points needed to finish above the line, from Game 20, is 17.70 (18)
At the end of the season, the overall points total of the team in 18th, has amassed an average points per game rise of 0.06, from where they are now (game 20). Meaning that we can predict using Bournemouth's average (0.85), that the final team will have 0.91 points per game total, at Game 38, that equals a total of 34.58 (35)
3 out of the last 4 years, the 18th team had 17 points at Game 20, and 2/3 of those times (66%) 35 points was a total that was either the minimum, or above, needed to survive, i.e Norwich were relegated with 33 in 2014, and Hull were relegated with 35 in 2015. Newcastle went down with 37 in 2016.
The highest rise in average was in 2016 (from 17-37) and the lowest was in 2014 (from 17-33). The three totals still average at 0.07, which multiplied by 38, gives us a perfect 35!
I'm not pretending this is a complex bed of statistical analysis, and am using averages because as expected there are inconsistencies.
i.e in 2010, when West Ham had 18 points at this stage, and Burnley went down with 30 points, one of only two times in the last 10 years, that the average points total needed to stay up, from game 20, decreased. [Post edited 29 Dec 2017 17:09]
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The be all and end all is that 35 points would not have been enough to have stayed up most of the time over the last 10 years, you are changing your tune and are now talking the last 4 years and talking projections or something, the bottom line is a team finishing with 35 points is more likely to go down than stay up over the last 10 year period. [Post edited 30 Dec 2017 9:22]
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 10:28 - Dec 30 with 1973 views | Jack_Kass |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 07:34 - Dec 30 by trampie |
The be all and end all is that 35 points would not have been enough to have stayed up most of the time over the last 10 years, you are changing your tune and are now talking the last 4 years and talking projections or something, the bottom line is a team finishing with 35 points is more likely to go down than stay up over the last 10 year period. [Post edited 30 Dec 2017 9:22]
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Trampie you either don't understand the point, or are being selectively obtuse.
We'll just have to wait and see, won't we? I will return at Game 25. | |
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:10 - Dec 30 with 1960 views | trampie |
| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 10:28 - Dec 30 by Jack_Kass |
Trampie you either don't understand the point, or are being selectively obtuse.
We'll just have to wait and see, won't we? I will return at Game 25. |
I think it is you being obtuse, you put a table up going back 10 years, that table shows that more often than not 35 points would not be good enough, but you don't want to accept that, probably because it's what I had deduced with a much larger study looking at the entire era of 3 pts for a win, 20 team Premier League in the past and for some reason you don't like it.
If somebody looks at only the last 4 seasons they will get a different result, if they look at just this season they may or may not get a different result and looking at a projection of points the likely points may fluctuate up or down or there again they may not and may stay fairly constant.
But the points total achieved by the 18th place team over the last 10 years is a matter of fact and does not need any fancy calculations it is what it is.
As regards projections the last four years shows the trend in the amount of points is going down for the 18th place team (could possibly be the big teams are getting more dominant in comparison to the less big teams) but this season so far compared to last season shows the teams in 17th and 18th with more points than last season but I thought some relegation teams last season went well in the second half of the season resulting in the 17th place team getting 40 points, will that be repeated (possibly not but who knows - might depend on how teams towards the bottom do in the transfer market).
Personally I'm all bottom line and if making a prediction I will make a prediction and am always prepared to say my reasonings, if I interpret a set of figures i will say how, no agenda, no spin that is trampie. [Post edited 30 Dec 2017 13:15]
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:25 - Dec 30 with 1943 views | Jack_Kass |
The last 4 seasons was in response to Bournemouth having 17 points, which was the whole point, looking at point totals between now and the end of the season, and looking for correlations. Some teams have had less than 17, and needed more than 35, while others have had more than 17, and needed less than 35. Thats why the AVERAGE is used.
Of course 35 points might not be enough, but that at the moment is THE PREDICTED FINAL TOTAL going on the last 10 years data, the current points total, and the average ppg rise from now until the final game.
This isn't particularly difficult Trampie, why don't you post your own 'large study' if you're so precious about proving something to yourself.
Iesu Grist. [Post edited 30 Dec 2017 13:26]
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| Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival on 13:34 - Dec 30 with 1935 views | trampie |
Why don't you accept that a team achieving 35 points over the last 10 seasons is more likely than not to get relegated than stay up ??? (see the table you put up). | |
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