| 60 Points 11:03 - Feb 9 with 12549 views | Myke |
Just thrown an eye over our remaining fixtures (slow morning, students doing a test and it's a bit nippy outside) and reckon we can pick up another 27 points. So sixty would be a decent return and should see us nudging into the top half. |  | | |  |
| 60 Points on 11:21 - Feb 9 with 4423 views | LazyFan |
I think your way over-optimistic.
I see a finish on 49 pts and only surviving due to Wycombe and Sheff Wed's 6 pts deduction. Poor Rotherham may go down as the final three, considering they have no money in a pandemic one has to feel for them as they have tried really hard. |  |
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| 60 Points on 11:26 - Feb 9 with 4399 views | W7Ranger |
| 60 Points on 11:21 - Feb 9 by LazyFan |
I think your way over-optimistic.
I see a finish on 49 pts and only surviving due to Wycombe and Sheff Wed's 6 pts deduction. Poor Rotherham may go down as the final three, considering they have no money in a pandemic one has to feel for them as they have tried really hard. |
Just 16 more pts??!! |  | | |
| 60 Points on 11:35 - Feb 9 with 4353 views | TheChef |
| 60 Points on 11:21 - Feb 9 by LazyFan |
I think your way over-optimistic.
I see a finish on 49 pts and only surviving due to Wycombe and Sheff Wed's 6 pts deduction. Poor Rotherham may go down as the final three, considering they have no money in a pandemic one has to feel for them as they have tried really hard. |
I think you're way over-pessimistic!
We'll probably finish with 50-something points. |  |
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| 60 Points on 11:37 - Feb 9 with 4332 views | MedwayR |
At a quick glance I got 21pts so 54pts final total. |  |
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| 60 Points on 11:38 - Feb 9 with 4334 views | nix |
That would be a really impressive total, and in the process beating our last season's points haul without Eze and with almost a completely new team would be a big step forward.
I was bored yesterday and worked out that we need to get .89 points per game to reach the generally accepted staying up figure of 50 points (we've currently achieved 1.22 PPG this season).
Whereas some teams below us need to improve their PPG haul.
Birmingham have 1.0 PPG and need 1.22 to reach 50 points
Sheffield W have 1.1 PPG and need 1.32 to reach 50 points
Derby have 1.03 PPG and need 1.15 to reach 50 points.
Birmingham in particular have some tough matches: Norwich, Reading, Watford, Swansea, Brentford, Stoke, Blackburn and Bristol City in their run in. They also have teams that are still fighting to stay up including us, Huddersfield, Rotherham, Forest, Cardiff and Derby. Maybe all matches are tough at the moment though as there aren't many teams that have nothing to play for either at the top or bottom of the table.
I know we can't feel safe until we reach 50 points as any team can go on bad runs, look at Bristol City and Huddersfield recently. But beating Rotherham and Birmingham in February would be a massive step forward. |  | | |
| 60 Points on 12:04 - Feb 9 with 4231 views | WokingR |
Think you're all looking at it the wrong way.
It should be how many points do we need to secure 16th ? |  | | |
| 60 Points on 12:05 - Feb 9 with 4230 views | W7Ranger |
I'd probably be more worried if I was a fan of a mid-table team.
Whilst several teams at the bottom (apart from Wycombe & Birmingham) are picking up a lot of pts presently, the form of several teams just above us has been awful. Hence why the table from 7th down to 17th has really bunched up.
We're only 7pts behind Middlesbrough with a game in hand. And they're 7th!! | | | |
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| 60 Points on 12:25 - Feb 9 with 4173 views | daveB |
It would be good to beat last seasons total but given how we looked a few weeks ago I think get to 52 points and I'll be more than happy, staying up is vital this season |  | | |
| 60 Points on 12:32 - Feb 9 with 4138 views | PinnerPaul |
Latest odds from Paddy Power
Based on the Relegation Market, they think we will finish 15th as we are 10th 'best' at 12/1 to go down.
Top 6 = 35/1
Promotion = 125/1
Top half = 17/10 | | | |
| 60 Points on 12:41 - Feb 9 with 4103 views | Northernr |
I'd be amazed if we got to 60. Still very firmly in the get to 52 points, find three worse teams, get the hell out of here camp.
We're feeling good, four wins from five, playing well, optimism. I think this season more than most has probably shown it's good not to get too carried away in either direction. We've had a thread wishing that Warburton stays for ten years, and another screeching FOR THE LOVE OF GOD JUST GO NOW, within a couple of weeks of each other.
Is Charlie really going to be able to do every game between now and the end? And what happens if/when he can't? What would happen were Dieng, Dickie, or even Barbet to get injured? We've lost Amos and Carrol long term and Kakay and Wallace medium term but we have done incredibly well with injuries this year - those four and one isolation period for Dykes. We've played teams, Blackburn and Stoke among them, reporting nine, ten, 11 injuries to first teamers. Multiple games have been called off for Covid tests and we've had one minor period of isolation for one player. Hats off to the sports science guys, and Warburton's squad management in this regard which we often criticise when we don't like his subs, but we'd be lucky if it continues all the way through and it's not a strong squad.
Watch, also, what happens next week if this run doesn't continue. We could very easily lose at Rotherham. They're a competitive team, they're in good form, they walloped the same Derby team we lost to. Yes they lost at Loftus Road, but only just, they could easily have had a penalty that night, they missed some great late chances, and the key to our victory was Bright, who's no longer here, v Mattock, who was just coming back off an injury. The conditions are not going to be conducive to good football so we're going to have to take on a physical, direct team on their patch in conditions that mean we can't play PLan A. Lose that, you will immediately, at about five past five, see some people on here you haven't seen for a few weeks. There will be at least twice the number of threads and posts there were post Blackburn.
And then it begins all over again doesn't it. Start the fans please. Brentford at home midweek, incredibly difficult game, unlikely to win that. Bournemouth at home, just in time for the new manager syndrome. Preston away, again, very difficult. Suddenly we're potentially on one point, or no points, from 12. Bottom three is only five points away as it is and in this hypothetical we've already allowed Rotherham a three point gain on that. Suddenly we're heading up to Birmingham with them third bottom, us fourth bottom, a point in it, and this message board will be absolutely on fire. Sky falling, kids screaming, women and children into lifeboats, Warburton the worst manager that ever lived must be sacked immediately, and the idea that we'd even amass sixty points if you let us play for another three years will be laughed at as the hopeless optimism of a happy clapper, willing to tolerate the demise of the club.
It's never as good, nor as bad, as it feels. ATM it feels good.
This post has been edited by an administrator |  | | |
| 60 Points on 12:44 - Feb 9 with 4090 views | ted_hendrix |
Boo-Hiss-etcetera. |  |
| My Father had a profound influence on me, he was a lunatic. |
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| 60 Points on 13:03 - Feb 9 with 4024 views | terryb |
The problem is that we are capable of winning any of the fixtures remaining, but we are also capable of losing any of them!
I suspect that our hardest games will be Rotherham, Brentford & Swansea, but I wouldn't be shocked if we got through those unbeaten. On the other hand, I wouldn't be the slightest surprised if any/some/all of Wycombe, Wednesday, Coventry left LR undefeated.
We are currently on course (PPG) for 56 points & I think that figure is realistic. | | | |
| 60 Points on 13:12 - Feb 9 with 3986 views | LongsufferingR |
Looking at the matches pessimistically I got 19 pts for a total of 52. Looking at them realistically I got 25 pts for a total of 58. Looking at them optimistically I got 57 pts for a total of 90 and a title parade around Hammersmith in the summer. |  | | |
| 60 Points on 13:42 - Feb 9 with 3882 views | nix |
I think Birmingham may sack Karanka at this rate. Possibly before we play them, so they may get new manager bounce. He's only got a 20% win rate and 1 win and three draws in the last ten matches. It would be just our luck to play two new managers in a week at AFC Bournemouth and Birmingham. | | | |
| 60 Points on 13:46 - Feb 9 with 3855 views | actonman |
| 60 Points on 12:41 - Feb 9 by Northernr |
I'd be amazed if we got to 60. Still very firmly in the get to 52 points, find three worse teams, get the hell out of here camp.
We're feeling good, four wins from five, playing well, optimism. I think this season more than most has probably shown it's good not to get too carried away in either direction. We've had a thread wishing that Warburton stays for ten years, and another screeching FOR THE LOVE OF GOD JUST GO NOW, within a couple of weeks of each other.
Is Charlie really going to be able to do every game between now and the end? And what happens if/when he can't? What would happen were Dieng, Dickie, or even Barbet to get injured? We've lost Amos and Carrol long term and Kakay and Wallace medium term but we have done incredibly well with injuries this year - those four and one isolation period for Dykes. We've played teams, Blackburn and Stoke among them, reporting nine, ten, 11 injuries to first teamers. Multiple games have been called off for Covid tests and we've had one minor period of isolation for one player. Hats off to the sports science guys, and Warburton's squad management in this regard which we often criticise when we don't like his subs, but we'd be lucky if it continues all the way through and it's not a strong squad.
Watch, also, what happens next week if this run doesn't continue. We could very easily lose at Rotherham. They're a competitive team, they're in good form, they walloped the same Derby team we lost to. Yes they lost at Loftus Road, but only just, they could easily have had a penalty that night, they missed some great late chances, and the key to our victory was Bright, who's no longer here, v Mattock, who was just coming back off an injury. The conditions are not going to be conducive to good football so we're going to have to take on a physical, direct team on their patch in conditions that mean we can't play PLan A. Lose that, you will immediately, at about five past five, see some people on here you haven't seen for a few weeks. There will be at least twice the number of threads and posts there were post Blackburn.
And then it begins all over again doesn't it. Start the fans please. Brentford at home midweek, incredibly difficult game, unlikely to win that. Bournemouth at home, just in time for the new manager syndrome. Preston away, again, very difficult. Suddenly we're potentially on one point, or no points, from 12. Bottom three is only five points away as it is and in this hypothetical we've already allowed Rotherham a three point gain on that. Suddenly we're heading up to Birmingham with them third bottom, us fourth bottom, a point in it, and this message board will be absolutely on fire. Sky falling, kids screaming, women and children into lifeboats, Warburton the worst manager that ever lived must be sacked immediately, and the idea that we'd even amass sixty points if you let us play for another three years will be laughed at as the hopeless optimism of a happy clapper, willing to tolerate the demise of the club.
It's never as good, nor as bad, as it feels. ATM it feels good.
This post has been edited by an administrator |
That pretty much sums up what’s going through my head at the moment . Even more frightening when you read it out loud  |  | | |
| 60 Points on 13:46 - Feb 9 with 3854 views | Northernr |
| 60 Points on 13:42 - Feb 9 by nix |
I think Birmingham may sack Karanka at this rate. Possibly before we play them, so they may get new manager bounce. He's only got a 20% win rate and 1 win and three draws in the last ten matches. It would be just our luck to play two new managers in a week at AFC Bournemouth and Birmingham. |
They deserve everything they get for appointing that miserable wnkr in the first place. | | | |
| 60 Points on 14:09 - Feb 9 with 3768 views | nix |
| 60 Points on 13:46 - Feb 9 by Northernr |
They deserve everything they get for appointing that miserable wnkr in the first place. |
V true. Let's hope they wait until April. | | | |
| 60 Points on 14:12 - Feb 9 with 3751 views | bosh67 |
I think 55 may be enough this season, although 60 would be far more comfortable. |  |
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| 60 Points on 14:14 - Feb 9 with 3750 views | loftus77 |
| 60 Points on 12:41 - Feb 9 by Northernr |
I'd be amazed if we got to 60. Still very firmly in the get to 52 points, find three worse teams, get the hell out of here camp.
We're feeling good, four wins from five, playing well, optimism. I think this season more than most has probably shown it's good not to get too carried away in either direction. We've had a thread wishing that Warburton stays for ten years, and another screeching FOR THE LOVE OF GOD JUST GO NOW, within a couple of weeks of each other.
Is Charlie really going to be able to do every game between now and the end? And what happens if/when he can't? What would happen were Dieng, Dickie, or even Barbet to get injured? We've lost Amos and Carrol long term and Kakay and Wallace medium term but we have done incredibly well with injuries this year - those four and one isolation period for Dykes. We've played teams, Blackburn and Stoke among them, reporting nine, ten, 11 injuries to first teamers. Multiple games have been called off for Covid tests and we've had one minor period of isolation for one player. Hats off to the sports science guys, and Warburton's squad management in this regard which we often criticise when we don't like his subs, but we'd be lucky if it continues all the way through and it's not a strong squad.
Watch, also, what happens next week if this run doesn't continue. We could very easily lose at Rotherham. They're a competitive team, they're in good form, they walloped the same Derby team we lost to. Yes they lost at Loftus Road, but only just, they could easily have had a penalty that night, they missed some great late chances, and the key to our victory was Bright, who's no longer here, v Mattock, who was just coming back off an injury. The conditions are not going to be conducive to good football so we're going to have to take on a physical, direct team on their patch in conditions that mean we can't play PLan A. Lose that, you will immediately, at about five past five, see some people on here you haven't seen for a few weeks. There will be at least twice the number of threads and posts there were post Blackburn.
And then it begins all over again doesn't it. Start the fans please. Brentford at home midweek, incredibly difficult game, unlikely to win that. Bournemouth at home, just in time for the new manager syndrome. Preston away, again, very difficult. Suddenly we're potentially on one point, or no points, from 12. Bottom three is only five points away as it is and in this hypothetical we've already allowed Rotherham a three point gain on that. Suddenly we're heading up to Birmingham with them third bottom, us fourth bottom, a point in it, and this message board will be absolutely on fire. Sky falling, kids screaming, women and children into lifeboats, Warburton the worst manager that ever lived must be sacked immediately, and the idea that we'd even amass sixty points if you let us play for another three years will be laughed at as the hopeless optimism of a happy clapper, willing to tolerate the demise of the club.
It's never as good, nor as bad, as it feels. ATM it feels good.
This post has been edited by an administrator |
Agree with this - apart from I'd substitute '52' with '55' in the first para.
Wycombe are gone (Wild Thing's issue, IMHO, is now disintegration not relegation) and hopefully Sheff Wed and their six bonus points (wtf) will rightfully join them. But for that confounded 22nd place, the mother of all relegation battles is forming up - with us still right in the thick of it.
It feels, this far out, like 2012-13 - when 54 pts wasn't enough. Throw in the 'Covid-effect' of lessening home advantage (we've certainly seen that) and anything can happen. As you say, a crucial issue will be Charlie and what be brings. Obviously, we need him to stay fit, scoring and influencing. [Post edited 9 Feb 2021 14:16]
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| 60 Points on 14:23 - Feb 9 with 3705 views | NewBee |
Careful SC.
When I cited FiveThirtyEight on the Brentford thread a couple of weeks back, it drew comments like:
"Anyone that uses % in football predictions is a right cûnt IMHO"
"just... the homework of a 12 year bees fan who has just been given a laptop for home schooling?"
"absolute bollox"
"Apparently [Bees] are now statistically 134% likely to go up and 97% certainties for the Nobel Peace prize." | | | |
| 60 Points on 14:26 - Feb 9 with 3695 views | Northernr |
| 60 Points on 14:12 - Feb 9 by bosh67 |
I think 55 may be enough this season, although 60 would be far more comfortable. |
Do you mean 45 might be enough?
I feel like I go through this every year but nobody has been relegated from this league with 55 points since the split 30 years ago.
Third bottom totals...
19/20 Charlton 48
18/19 Rotherham 40
17/18 Barnsley 41
16/17 Blackburn 51
15/16 Charlton 40
14/15 Millwall 41
13/14 Doncaster 44
12/13 Peterborough 54
11/12 Portsmouth 40
10/11 Preston 42
09/10 Sheff Wed 47
08/09 Norwich 46
07/08 Leicester 52
06/07 Southend 42
05/06 Crewe 42
04/05 Gillingham 50
03/04 Walsall 51
02/03 Sheff Wed 46
01/02 Crewe 49
00/01 Huddersfield 48
99/00 Walsall 46
98/99 Bury 47
97/98 Man City 48
96/97 Grimsby 46
95/96 Millwall 52
94/95 Swindon 48 (four relegated this year)
93/94 Birmingham 51
92/93 Brentford 49 | | | |
| 60 Points on 14:39 - Feb 9 with 3642 views | LongsufferingR |
Not having a go at you but how is it an accurate prediction site if it got 2 of the 3 relegation places wrong last season? It can't possibly take into account vital ingredients like injuries, suspensions, managerial changes etc so what's the point? | | | |
| 60 Points on 14:54 - Feb 9 with 3584 views | francisbowles |
| 60 Points on 14:26 - Feb 9 by Northernr |
Do you mean 45 might be enough?
I feel like I go through this every year but nobody has been relegated from this league with 55 points since the split 30 years ago.
Third bottom totals...
19/20 Charlton 48
18/19 Rotherham 40
17/18 Barnsley 41
16/17 Blackburn 51
15/16 Charlton 40
14/15 Millwall 41
13/14 Doncaster 44
12/13 Peterborough 54
11/12 Portsmouth 40
10/11 Preston 42
09/10 Sheff Wed 47
08/09 Norwich 46
07/08 Leicester 52
06/07 Southend 42
05/06 Crewe 42
04/05 Gillingham 50
03/04 Walsall 51
02/03 Sheff Wed 46
01/02 Crewe 49
00/01 Huddersfield 48
99/00 Walsall 46
98/99 Bury 47
97/98 Man City 48
96/97 Grimsby 46
95/96 Millwall 52
94/95 Swindon 48 (four relegated this year)
93/94 Birmingham 51
92/93 Brentford 49 |
Looks like 25% of the time 50 points is not enough.
It would be interesting to know how many points 21st and 22nd place had after 28 games in those seasons. I've tried but can't find that info. [Post edited 9 Feb 2021 14:57]
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