| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 15:36 - Feb 14 with 3194 views | Glyn1 |
Thanks for this, it would have been a lot higher a month ago.
The comments on that item are very mocking of it though, and some are quite funny.
The one thing I notice on reading that is how far ahead are the 3 favourites to go down - evens or worse. With a third of the season left, surely it's much to early to say that? [Post edited 14 Feb 2018 15:41]
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| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 16:02 - Feb 14 with 3122 views | TheResurrection |
| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 15:36 - Feb 14 by Glyn1 |
Thanks for this, it would have been a lot higher a month ago.
The comments on that item are very mocking of it though, and some are quite funny.
The one thing I notice on reading that is how far ahead are the 3 favourites to go down - evens or worse. With a third of the season left, surely it's much to early to say that? [Post edited 14 Feb 2018 15:41]
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Nothing is guaranteed, it's all about assessing probability. But at least this is a scientific analysis and as it goes, the results coincides with the same 5 I've tipped to be in the mix, so clearly it's extremely good. 😉
I'm more than happy with the science, more than happy with the 17% analysis. Just need to put all this into practice now. |  |
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| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 17:56 - Feb 14 with 2943 views | E20Jack |
Just convert the odds into a percentage and invert it.
We are 9/4 to go down which converted to a percentage of happening is 30.8%. So to stay up it works out at 69.2%, which prior to checking was roughly my realistic guess (70%). |  |
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| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 17:59 - Feb 14 with 2931 views | Jackfath |
| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 17:56 - Feb 14 by E20Jack |
Just convert the odds into a percentage and invert it.
We are 9/4 to go down which converted to a percentage of happening is 30.8%. So to stay up it works out at 69.2%, which prior to checking was roughly my realistic guess (70%). |
9/4 is 44% isn't it? |  |
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| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 18:13 - Feb 14 with 2897 views | pikeypaul |
| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 17:59 - Feb 14 by Jackfath |
9/4 is 44% isn't it? |
No
30.769%
Our actual odds of going down worked on a 100% book are
28.169% [Post edited 14 Feb 2018 18:33]
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| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 18:23 - Feb 14 with 2873 views | Jackfath |
| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 18:13 - Feb 14 by pikeypaul |
No
30.769%
Our actual odds of going down worked on a 100% book are
28.169% [Post edited 14 Feb 2018 18:33]
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| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 10:21 - Feb 15 with 2579 views | MrSwerve |
What's with the 'current league positions' down the bottom of the page? Got us down as 13th? Am I missing something? |  |
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| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 10:39 - Feb 15 with 2569 views | Dewi1jack |
| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 10:21 - Feb 15 by MrSwerve |
What's with the 'current league positions' down the bottom of the page? Got us down as 13th? Am I missing something? |
Isn't that the position they have us to finish?
I had us in 10th with 42 pts on the ru in calculator someone posted somewhere |  |
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| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 10:48 - Feb 15 with 2555 views | MrSwerve |
| Without tempting fate, 17% chance of relegation... on 10:39 - Feb 15 by Dewi1jack |
Isn't that the position they have us to finish?
I had us in 10th with 42 pts on the ru in calculator someone posted somewhere |
If that's the case, they aren't 'current league positions'? | |
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