| Coronavirus figures 11:40 - Jun 12 with 4452 views | exhmrc1 |
Here is the evidence showing the Wag's policy is right.
Area - likely reproduction number (range of possibility) - Doubling/halving time for the number of new cases
East Midlands - 0.9 (0.7-1.1) - halves in 27 days
East of England - 0.7 (0.5-0.9) - halves in 9.7 days
London - 0.8 (0.6 - 1.1) - halves in 20 days
North East - 0.7 (0.5-1) - halves in 8. days
North West - 0.8 (0.7-1) - halves in 17 days
Northern Ireland - 0.9 (0.6-1.2) - halves in 27 days
Scotland - 0.9 (0.6-1.1) - halves in 25 days
South East - 0.9 (0.7-1) - halves in 21 days
South West - 1 (0.7-1.3) - doubles in 90 days
Wales - 0.7 (0.5-0.8) - halves in 7.8 days
West Midlands - 0.8 (0.7-1) - halves in 18 days
Yorkshire and The Humber - 0.8 (0.7-1) - halves in 16 days
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| Coronavirus figures on 11:44 - Jun 12 with 2144 views | Neath_Jack |
Not as simple as that, but you know that already.
Boring as f*ck. |  |
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| Coronavirus figures on 11:47 - Jun 12 with 2135 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Coronavirus figures on 11:44 - Jun 12 by Neath_Jack |
Not as simple as that, but you know that already.
Boring as f*ck. |
Plus the numbers are wrong in the first place. | | | |
| Coronavirus figures on 11:50 - Jun 12 with 2125 views | Kilkennyjack |
Thank you for posting.
Fantastic to see the actions of our Welsh Parliament producing outcomes that help to keep us safe and help to get us back on the road to recovery soonest.
Well done to Professor Drakeford and his team.
ðŸ‘ðŸ‘ðŸ‘ðŸ´ó §ó ¢ó ·ó ¬ó ³ó ¿ðŸ´ó §ó ¢ó ·ó ¬ó ³ó ¿ðŸ´ó §ó ¢ó ·ó ¬ó ³ó ¿ |  |
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| Coronavirus figures on 11:51 - Jun 12 with 2122 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Coronavirus figures on 11:47 - Jun 12 by londonlisa2001 |
Plus the numbers are wrong in the first place. |
London behind Cymru ? | |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| Coronavirus figures on 11:57 - Jun 12 with 2110 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Coronavirus figures on 11:51 - Jun 12 by Kilkennyjack |
London behind Cymru ? |
The numbers are complete crap.
There are several regions given there with the same ‘R’ number which have different ‘halving’ times.
Plus the R number is a function of number of cases as well.
In a region with few cases, any single day is going to see the R number shoot up and down. It’s a nonsensical measure taken in the way the original post has taken it.
If Hammersmith has 2 cases this week and 2 next week the R is ‘1’ . [Post edited 12 Jun 2020 11:57]
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| Coronavirus figures on 11:59 - Jun 12 with 2101 views | controversial_jack |
Well done Wales, and Drakeford! A complete contrast to Boris. | | | |
| Coronavirus figures on 12:00 - Jun 12 with 2098 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Coronavirus figures on 11:51 - Jun 12 by Kilkennyjack |
London behind Cymru ? |
Plus all the Corona virus deaths from Powys residents are recorded as deaths in England because the patients are sent to english hospitals. Powys apparently does not have intensive care hospitals. | |
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| Coronavirus figures on 12:00 - Jun 12 with 2096 views | Scotia |
Yesterday's infection figures:-
Scotland - 17
Northern Ireland - 4
WALES - 63.
Three times the other nations combined.
Comfortably the worst performing of all the home nations across the board unfortunately, when you consider, testing, tracing, hospitalization and reopening society. No wonder we are still in lockdown. [Post edited 12 Jun 2020 12:04]
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| Coronavirus figures on 12:02 - Jun 12 with 2084 views | LeonWasGod |
We're not going to end up that much different in terms of the main stats are we? The slow initial response hammered all UK nations. |  | | |
| Coronavirus figures on 12:09 - Jun 12 with 2071 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Coronavirus figures on 12:02 - Jun 12 by LeonWasGod |
We're not going to end up that much different in terms of the main stats are we? The slow initial response hammered all UK nations. |
No reason the Welsh government could not have imposed lockdown earlier was there? | |
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| Coronavirus figures on 12:14 - Jun 12 with 2063 views | jack247 |
Figures showing the increase/decrease over the same period would be more useful. It’s quite possible a regions R rate could double over 90 days and halve over 7 days. You’re talking figures either side of the peak. | | | |
| Coronavirus figures on 12:19 - Jun 12 with 2052 views | exhmrc1 |
Are the ONS wrong as well
They claimed yesterday Wales had the lowest percentage increase in deaths over the 5 year average 7% next was London 8% and some areas of England nearly 30% more than the average of the last 5 years at the corresponding day.
Number of deaths
5-year average
Difference
Percentage above average
North East
550
438
112
25.6
East
1095
824
271
32.9
Yorkshire and The Humber
1046
810
236
29.1
West Midlands
970
834
136
16.3
South East
1515
1223
292
23.9
London
841
777
64
8.2
East Midlands
863
697
166
23.8
North West
1337
1156
181
15.7
Wales
587
546
41
7.5
South West
1011
849
162
19.1 [Post edited 12 Jun 2020 12:25]
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| Coronavirus figures on 12:27 - Jun 12 with 2025 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Coronavirus figures on 12:19 - Jun 12 by exhmrc1 |
Are the ONS wrong as well
They claimed yesterday Wales had the lowest percentage increase in deaths over the 5 year average 7% next was London 8% and some areas of England nearly 30% more than the average of the last 5 years at the corresponding day.
Number of deaths
5-year average
Difference
Percentage above average
North East
550
438
112
25.6
East
1095
824
271
32.9
Yorkshire and The Humber
1046
810
236
29.1
West Midlands
970
834
136
16.3
South East
1515
1223
292
23.9
London
841
777
64
8.2
East Midlands
863
697
166
23.8
North West
1337
1156
181
15.7
Wales
587
546
41
7.5
South West
1011
849
162
19.1 [Post edited 12 Jun 2020 12:25]
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Again, it’s not as simple as that.
Excess deaths will be negative in this country for quite some time to come after this. As people that would have died in July, or August or December will not as they’ll have died during the virus outbreak.
And excess deaths measured as a number of deaths compared to the average number of deaths in the past 5 years take no account of population growth nor of an ageing population. That’s not to say it’s not useful, it is. Probably more than anything else. But these numbers are there to be analysed with all sorts of other numbers, as part of a detailed examination. Not plucked at random to prove the point you’re trying to make without context. | | | |
| Coronavirus figures on 12:30 - Jun 12 with 2016 views | chad |
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| Coronavirus figures on 12:34 - Jun 12 with 2013 views | magicdaps10 |
Well done.. That has to be applauded.
Wish I could say the same on their guidance(if you can call it that) on the return to school for teachers and kids.
The guidance is that we will leave it down to each school(scapegoats in place already)
Would like to revisit these figures once the schools close for summer. |  |
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| Coronavirus figures on 12:53 - Jun 12 with 1981 views | Professor |
| Coronavirus figures on 12:27 - Jun 12 by londonlisa2001 |
Again, it’s not as simple as that.
Excess deaths will be negative in this country for quite some time to come after this. As people that would have died in July, or August or December will not as they’ll have died during the virus outbreak.
And excess deaths measured as a number of deaths compared to the average number of deaths in the past 5 years take no account of population growth nor of an ageing population. That’s not to say it’s not useful, it is. Probably more than anything else. But these numbers are there to be analysed with all sorts of other numbers, as part of a detailed examination. Not plucked at random to prove the point you’re trying to make without context. |
These numbers are all crude tools at present. Retrospective analysis will pick up detail later. R0 is useful in real time to only have an indication if an intervention is working. Given the ranges a region could be in decline or rising at an R0 of 0.9 where the range is so wide. They are indicative only not a cast in stone fact.
I live in the Northwest. Last week R0 was around 1, but locally in Wirral and Cheshire it was more like 0.7, but 1.1 in Liverpool and Manchester. | | | |
| Coronavirus figures on 12:59 - Jun 12 with 1963 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Coronavirus figures on 12:53 - Jun 12 by Professor |
These numbers are all crude tools at present. Retrospective analysis will pick up detail later. R0 is useful in real time to only have an indication if an intervention is working. Given the ranges a region could be in decline or rising at an R0 of 0.9 where the range is so wide. They are indicative only not a cast in stone fact.
I live in the Northwest. Last week R0 was around 1, but locally in Wirral and Cheshire it was more like 0.7, but 1.1 in Liverpool and Manchester. |
Indeed.
Also the R numbers in regions (or parts of regions) include care homes, hospitals and the wider community. The community spread in London, for example, appears at present to be very, very low but R numbers will include the care home settings where it may still be higher. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter of course, but it’s a different risk to the community at large.
Hopefully the mass gatherings of the past week or ten days won’t have an impact. We should have started to see it possibly, and that doesn’t seem to have happened. Within another week or two we will know I imagine. It’s been well over a month since people started gathering in parks and in beaches and there’s been no spike. | | | |
| Coronavirus figures on 13:21 - Jun 12 with 1939 views | exhmrc1 |
| Coronavirus figures on 12:53 - Jun 12 by Professor |
These numbers are all crude tools at present. Retrospective analysis will pick up detail later. R0 is useful in real time to only have an indication if an intervention is working. Given the ranges a region could be in decline or rising at an R0 of 0.9 where the range is so wide. They are indicative only not a cast in stone fact.
I live in the Northwest. Last week R0 was around 1, but locally in Wirral and Cheshire it was more like 0.7, but 1.1 in Liverpool and Manchester. |
The difference between the Wirral and Liverpool is reflected in the range shown as is the difference between North Wales, Cardiff, Rhondda Cynon Taff and the likes of Swansea and Gwent. These figures relate to the end of May before many of the reductions in Wales occurred. The all Wales figures are very much affected by the higher figures in North Wales, Cardiff and RCT. As an example for 10 June there were 38 new cases in Wales of which 23 were in North Wales and 7 in Cardiff and the Vale. The rest of Wales had 12 between them. Of the 63 new cases yesterday 20 were in Cardiff and the Vale and 21 in North Wales.
As far as daily figures are concerned on 31 May there were 82 new cases a week later there were 40. On 24 May there were 140 new cases so it has gone from 140 to 82 to 40 on the same day each week. This is the kind of drop that is happening. | | | |
| Coronavirus figures on 13:34 - Jun 12 with 1926 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Coronavirus figures on 13:21 - Jun 12 by exhmrc1 |
The difference between the Wirral and Liverpool is reflected in the range shown as is the difference between North Wales, Cardiff, Rhondda Cynon Taff and the likes of Swansea and Gwent. These figures relate to the end of May before many of the reductions in Wales occurred. The all Wales figures are very much affected by the higher figures in North Wales, Cardiff and RCT. As an example for 10 June there were 38 new cases in Wales of which 23 were in North Wales and 7 in Cardiff and the Vale. The rest of Wales had 12 between them. Of the 63 new cases yesterday 20 were in Cardiff and the Vale and 21 in North Wales.
As far as daily figures are concerned on 31 May there were 82 new cases a week later there were 40. On 24 May there were 140 new cases so it has gone from 140 to 82 to 40 on the same day each week. This is the kind of drop that is happening. |
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| Beware of the Risen People
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| Coronavirus figures on 13:36 - Jun 12 with 1924 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Coronavirus figures on 12:00 - Jun 12 by Scotia |
Yesterday's infection figures:-
Scotland - 17
Northern Ireland - 4
WALES - 63.
Three times the other nations combined.
Comfortably the worst performing of all the home nations across the board unfortunately, when you consider, testing, tracing, hospitalization and reopening society. No wonder we are still in lockdown. [Post edited 12 Jun 2020 12:04]
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Maybe its the long border we share with England ?
Certainly impacting the Gogs later than the south. | |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| Coronavirus figures on 13:37 - Jun 12 with 1918 views | Scotia |
| Coronavirus figures on 13:21 - Jun 12 by exhmrc1 |
The difference between the Wirral and Liverpool is reflected in the range shown as is the difference between North Wales, Cardiff, Rhondda Cynon Taff and the likes of Swansea and Gwent. These figures relate to the end of May before many of the reductions in Wales occurred. The all Wales figures are very much affected by the higher figures in North Wales, Cardiff and RCT. As an example for 10 June there were 38 new cases in Wales of which 23 were in North Wales and 7 in Cardiff and the Vale. The rest of Wales had 12 between them. Of the 63 new cases yesterday 20 were in Cardiff and the Vale and 21 in North Wales.
As far as daily figures are concerned on 31 May there were 82 new cases a week later there were 40. On 24 May there were 140 new cases so it has gone from 140 to 82 to 40 on the same day each week. This is the kind of drop that is happening. |
But that drop is still nowhere near the drop that is being seen in Scotland, Northern Ireland or possibly,for that matter, England. We've been tracking above them for at least three weeks.
As you say the outbreaks are highly localised, so why can't people living in less affected areas travel to see relatives or go to the beach as they could if they lived in rural England?
Drakeford has very little to be proud of. | | | |
| Coronavirus figures on 13:38 - Jun 12 with 1910 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Coronavirus figures on 12:00 - Jun 12 by felixstowe_jack |
Plus all the Corona virus deaths from Powys residents are recorded as deaths in England because the patients are sent to english hospitals. Powys apparently does not have intensive care hospitals. |
I agree it would be fab in UK could prioritise the funding of such facilities in Powys so welsh citizens dont need to go to another nation to receive care.
Great idea. | |
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| Coronavirus figures on 13:39 - Jun 12 with 1906 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Coronavirus figures on 12:27 - Jun 12 by londonlisa2001 |
Again, it’s not as simple as that.
Excess deaths will be negative in this country for quite some time to come after this. As people that would have died in July, or August or December will not as they’ll have died during the virus outbreak.
And excess deaths measured as a number of deaths compared to the average number of deaths in the past 5 years take no account of population growth nor of an ageing population. That’s not to say it’s not useful, it is. Probably more than anything else. But these numbers are there to be analysed with all sorts of other numbers, as part of a detailed examination. Not plucked at random to prove the point you’re trying to make without context. |
Its almost like such great news is somehow not great news 🤷â€â™‚ï¸ | |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| Coronavirus figures on 13:41 - Jun 12 with 1904 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Coronavirus figures on 13:37 - Jun 12 by Scotia |
But that drop is still nowhere near the drop that is being seen in Scotland, Northern Ireland or possibly,for that matter, England. We've been tracking above them for at least three weeks.
As you say the outbreaks are highly localised, so why can't people living in less affected areas travel to see relatives or go to the beach as they could if they lived in rural England?
Drakeford has very little to be proud of. |
Drakeford has been outstanding.
He has an advantage though, in that he actually does care about saving lives.
Economies will recover, corpses will not.
England should follow the Professor.
Plenty of good work to benefit from. | |
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| Coronavirus figures on 13:51 - Jun 12 with 1885 views | jack247 |
| Coronavirus figures on 13:41 - Jun 12 by Kilkennyjack |
Drakeford has been outstanding.
He has an advantage though, in that he actually does care about saving lives.
Economies will recover, corpses will not.
England should follow the Professor.
Plenty of good work to benefit from. |
Hard to argue with that, especially the first two lines.
There’s an argument for a crashed economy causing loss of life through poverty and mental illness, but overall I’m very glad Wales has taken a more cautious approach. | | | |
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