| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. 15:20 - Apr 17 with 1296 views | SwansIndependent |
 The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. 18th Apr 2021 10:58If the start of the game was bad, the first twenty five minutes of the second half this afternoon at the Liberty was atrocious. Once again the wandering about with not a lot of interest in winning the game strategy returned. A self imposed exile from the past two games and an inability to hold up, pass or even take control of the ball. Then it’s all change, two quick goals scrape a draw, and the advantage that could have been three points closer to Watford is just one.  1
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 15:26 - Apr 17 with 970 views | KeithHaynes |
What happens now then ?
Is it still on ? |  |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 15:52 - Apr 17 with 919 views | ReslovenSwan1 |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 15:26 - Apr 17 by KeithHaynes |
What happens now then ?
Is it still on ? |
Heebee geebies at Swansea Brentford and happily Watford. Nerves are part of human and sporting endeavour. Fight or flight. Adrenaline.
Cullen has popped up a few times in this scenario, Reading last season.
Two beach games (in theory) QPR will not high press too much and two big games Reading and Watford Away.
You bet it is still on. |  |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 15:58 - Apr 17 with 903 views | AndyCole |
A good read, though a tad critical given where we are and what we achieved most recently to turn momentum back in our favour. A massive effort.
Maybe our biggest apparent weakness is also our inner strength and fortitude. The collective ability to remain calm under pressure - often looks like we're not busting the gut which shouty passive supporters always demand, but we're doing far far more. Which of course largely accounts for where we are at the business end of the season. The inner strength, belief and drive has calmly and assuredly propelled us to 3rd in the league.
The less insightful shout n scream at the merest blip, unable to see the bigger picture, today's matchday thread epitomises this perfectly.
Autos is now even more ON than it was this morning. Fair play. | |
| Pro free speech and alternative opinions -
Anti gang-bullying and poor modding thereof -
Will always make a stand against those who consistently choose to turn a blind eye |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 15:58 - Apr 17 with 905 views | Badlands |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 15:52 - Apr 17 by ReslovenSwan1 |
Heebee geebies at Swansea Brentford and happily Watford. Nerves are part of human and sporting endeavour. Fight or flight. Adrenaline.
Cullen has popped up a few times in this scenario, Reading last season.
Two beach games (in theory) QPR will not high press too much and two big games Reading and Watford Away.
You bet it is still on. |
That wasn’t anything to do with nerves ... we were simply unprepared. |  |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 17:17 - Apr 17 with 787 views | Catullus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 15:58 - Apr 17 by AndyCole |
A good read, though a tad critical given where we are and what we achieved most recently to turn momentum back in our favour. A massive effort.
Maybe our biggest apparent weakness is also our inner strength and fortitude. The collective ability to remain calm under pressure - often looks like we're not busting the gut which shouty passive supporters always demand, but we're doing far far more. Which of course largely accounts for where we are at the business end of the season. The inner strength, belief and drive has calmly and assuredly propelled us to 3rd in the league.
The less insightful shout n scream at the merest blip, unable to see the bigger picture, today's matchday thread epitomises this perfectly.
Autos is now even more ON than it was this morning. Fair play. |
Shouty AND passive...that's a contradiction in terms.
If it doesn't look like we're busting a gut it's because we are not. If people aren't busting a gut it means they can be doing more not that they are. Even Curtis commented on the lack of urgency, do you think you know better than Curt?
The auto's is a point closer but it was a massive opportunity missed, we are 6 behind but it could been just 4.
If you can't see any issue in being bossed for most of the game by the bottom team then it shows your lack of understanding.
You don't just accept a below par performance you make out it was good. We got lucky with other results and we scraped a draw out of a really poor team.
We can improve and if we're going to go up this season we MUST improve. 80 minutes like that against Brentford and we'd probably have no hope of a comeback. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 18:23 - Apr 17 with 710 views | Fireboy2 |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 15:58 - Apr 17 by AndyCole |
A good read, though a tad critical given where we are and what we achieved most recently to turn momentum back in our favour. A massive effort.
Maybe our biggest apparent weakness is also our inner strength and fortitude. The collective ability to remain calm under pressure - often looks like we're not busting the gut which shouty passive supporters always demand, but we're doing far far more. Which of course largely accounts for where we are at the business end of the season. The inner strength, belief and drive has calmly and assuredly propelled us to 3rd in the league.
The less insightful shout n scream at the merest blip, unable to see the bigger picture, today's matchday thread epitomises this perfectly.
Autos is now even more ON than it was this morning. Fair play. |
You do post some bollox.
You must have alot of time spare in your gorton bedsit. |  | | |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 19:42 - Apr 17 with 671 views | onehunglow |
Liverpool now Manchester .And this crap from a working class socialist.
Hypocrisy or what.
Looking down ya nose at a poorer person. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 22:16 - Apr 17 with 616 views | NotLoyal |
We are privileged to be able to come on here and read the website articles for sure, |  |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 03:33 - Apr 18 with 567 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 15:26 - Apr 17 by KeithHaynes |
What happens now then ?
Is it still on ? |
More chance now than prior to the match, surely?
Prior to the match we were 7 behind them with most expecting both us and Watford to win... meaning we stay 7 points behind.
We find ourselves post game looking at a 6 point gap. We gained points on them completely unexpectedly. I’m delighted by that.
We now need to gain 4 points on them in the next 3 game block (they have to travel to Norwich and Brentford), if we do that then it’s in our hands on the last day. This of course assuming Brentford don’t win all their games.
It will be an incredible season if come the last day of the season we know that if we win then we are promoted. It essentially becomes a play-off final for us, with the fall back of the actual play-offs if we don’t win. |  |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 08:00 - Apr 18 with 531 views | Fireboy2 |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 03:33 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
More chance now than prior to the match, surely?
Prior to the match we were 7 behind them with most expecting both us and Watford to win... meaning we stay 7 points behind.
We find ourselves post game looking at a 6 point gap. We gained points on them completely unexpectedly. I’m delighted by that.
We now need to gain 4 points on them in the next 3 game block (they have to travel to Norwich and Brentford), if we do that then it’s in our hands on the last day. This of course assuming Brentford don’t win all their games.
It will be an incredible season if come the last day of the season we know that if we win then we are promoted. It essentially becomes a play-off final for us, with the fall back of the actual play-offs if we don’t win. |
Not really as we both have one match less to play therefore less points on offer and less of a chance of catching them.
We HAVE to win the next three games and they HAVE to at least lose one and draw one of their next three games, yes them dropping points is a good possibility but us winning the next three is less possible. | | | |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 10:47 - Apr 18 with 482 views | AndyCole |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 22:16 - Apr 17 by NotLoyal |
We are privileged to be able to come on here and read the website articles for sure, |
You're absolutely right NL but unfortunately the majority don't appreciate, or worse still choose not to bother appreciating.
All the sheeple need to hear is reasons why we're shite, be it the manager, our best players, owners etc. Something to moan. These articles are cleverly well balanced, but seen as far too upbleat by the sheeple.
If The Independent wrote as insightful and entertaining articles that ONLY focused on the shite, these top threads would be inundated with our chief moaners - and the sheep would come flocking.
An idea to help support Keith's cause is perhaps to have a brother/sister forum which focuses on a different demographic to the usual tired grumpy ol' men brigade. The grumply ol' sheeple are a staple for the cause, and good on them. An additional forum which targeted the more rational thinking, glass half full, ebullient, enthusiastic younger demographic could soar and massively boost the cause. Which would dovetail nicely with Clubs' efforts to attract growth areas to boost numbers.
Onwards, younger and upwards. | |
| Pro free speech and alternative opinions -
Anti gang-bullying and poor modding thereof -
Will always make a stand against those who consistently choose to turn a blind eye |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 11:03 - Apr 18 with 464 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 08:00 - Apr 18 by Fireboy2 |
Not really as we both have one match less to play therefore less points on offer and less of a chance of catching them.
We HAVE to win the next three games and they HAVE to at least lose one and draw one of their next three games, yes them dropping points is a good possibility but us winning the next three is less possible. |
That is mathematically incorrect.
There is less games now than prior to the game, of course. But the probability at that time was that at the end of the game the gap would remain the same. I will have to check the odds and do the sums and report back, but it's factually accurate I assure you.
Put it this way, if both us and Watford had a chance to go back in time 24 hours, we should absolutely refuse. Because the most likely result of both replayed games is two wins for both of us resulting in us being in a worse position than we find ourselves in now.
We are more likely now than we were 24 hours ago without a shadow of a doubt. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 11:17 - Apr 18 with 455 views | Fireboy2 |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 11:03 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
That is mathematically incorrect.
There is less games now than prior to the game, of course. But the probability at that time was that at the end of the game the gap would remain the same. I will have to check the odds and do the sums and report back, but it's factually accurate I assure you.
Put it this way, if both us and Watford had a chance to go back in time 24 hours, we should absolutely refuse. Because the most likely result of both replayed games is two wins for both of us resulting in us being in a worse position than we find ourselves in now.
We are more likely now than we were 24 hours ago without a shadow of a doubt. |
Sorry but you are going to have to concede on this one doc but I fully expect you not to of course.
Less games to play as I've stated so less chance in catching them as there is less points on offer, not rocket science really no matter how much you try and spin it.
The only other positive about yesterday apart from cullen was we gained a point on watford.
Now bore da to you im off to do more important things. | | | |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 11:18 - Apr 18 with 453 views | onehunglow |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 10:47 - Apr 18 by AndyCole |
You're absolutely right NL but unfortunately the majority don't appreciate, or worse still choose not to bother appreciating.
All the sheeple need to hear is reasons why we're shite, be it the manager, our best players, owners etc. Something to moan. These articles are cleverly well balanced, but seen as far too upbleat by the sheeple.
If The Independent wrote as insightful and entertaining articles that ONLY focused on the shite, these top threads would be inundated with our chief moaners - and the sheep would come flocking.
An idea to help support Keith's cause is perhaps to have a brother/sister forum which focuses on a different demographic to the usual tired grumpy ol' men brigade. The grumply ol' sheeple are a staple for the cause, and good on them. An additional forum which targeted the more rational thinking, glass half full, ebullient, enthusiastic younger demographic could soar and massively boost the cause. Which would dovetail nicely with Clubs' efforts to attract growth areas to boost numbers.
Onwards, younger and upwards. |
Im not liking that penultimate paragraph at all but won't elaborate
What this site should be and is ,to an extent,i a forum for fans to express ALL opinion ,whether they are liked by AC or not. If they aren't hate posts aimed at fellow posters,then that should be fine ;it is by me.
I have no problems with anyone describing me as negative/old/clueless/sheep,todo if it's football related.Abusing a poster because of different opinion gets both barrels from me and always will. This forum should be be sweetness and light and a stepford wife kind of love for all things .Especially a current manager or players.
I detest cooper a a manager and stand by every word Ive posted.Sticky it ,if you want.
We will never have a better chance to get back up.For me ,it has gone and we kid ourselves otherwise.This chance was lost by Cooper and Cooper alone. To reach the play offs and fail again is no success story.It's meaningless .This season,I have no diubt either Brentfrod,Barnsley or Bournemouth will see us off and we will see the grizzled ,puzzled vacuous face of Cooper staring at the abyss before spouting more banal management ballacks.
PS,when in pubs before a game,fans exchange views which are often different ,like on here,only without the hypocrisy. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 11:21 - Apr 18 with 452 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 11:17 - Apr 18 by Fireboy2 |
Sorry but you are going to have to concede on this one doc but I fully expect you not to of course.
Less games to play as I've stated so less chance in catching them as there is less points on offer, not rocket science really no matter how much you try and spin it.
The only other positive about yesterday apart from cullen was we gained a point on watford.
Now bore da to you im off to do more important things. |
Concede? I am not giving an opinion, I am stating a mathematical fact. There is no spin, involved.
Less games to play doesn't equate to less chance to catch them, one does not mean the other. If we won yesterday there would still be less games to play, but wouldn't mean less chance to catch them, so your thinking is not accurate.
The most likely scenario prior to yesterday was 4 games left and 7 behind... we are 4 games left and 6 behind. [Post edited 18 Apr 2021 13:17]
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 11:32 - Apr 18 with 439 views | Catullus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 10:47 - Apr 18 by AndyCole |
You're absolutely right NL but unfortunately the majority don't appreciate, or worse still choose not to bother appreciating.
All the sheeple need to hear is reasons why we're shite, be it the manager, our best players, owners etc. Something to moan. These articles are cleverly well balanced, but seen as far too upbleat by the sheeple.
If The Independent wrote as insightful and entertaining articles that ONLY focused on the shite, these top threads would be inundated with our chief moaners - and the sheep would come flocking.
An idea to help support Keith's cause is perhaps to have a brother/sister forum which focuses on a different demographic to the usual tired grumpy ol' men brigade. The grumply ol' sheeple are a staple for the cause, and good on them. An additional forum which targeted the more rational thinking, glass half full, ebullient, enthusiastic younger demographic could soar and massively boost the cause. Which would dovetail nicely with Clubs' efforts to attract growth areas to boost numbers.
Onwards, younger and upwards. |
Do you not think that failing to beat the bottom placed team at home was 2 points dropped and a big opportunity wasted?
What if agreeing with you was seen as being a sheep?
What if you're wrong?
We're into Robson Green territory again though, in the extreme! | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 11:43 - Apr 18 with 428 views | trampie |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 11:21 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
Concede? I am not giving an opinion, I am stating a mathematical fact. There is no spin, involved.
Less games to play doesn't equate to less chance to catch them, one does not mean the other. If we won yesterday there would still be less games to play, but wouldn't mean less chance to catch them, so your thinking is not accurate.
The most likely scenario prior to yesterday was 4 games left and 7 behind... we are 4 games left and 6 behind. [Post edited 18 Apr 2021 13:17]
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Swans still have an outside chance but a lesser chance now of achieving automatic promotion after Saturdays games. |  |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 11:44 - Apr 18 with 427 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 11:43 - Apr 18 by trampie |
Swans still have an outside chance but a lesser chance now of achieving automatic promotion after Saturdays games. |
Incorrect | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 12:08 - Apr 18 with 407 views | trampie |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 11:44 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
Incorrect |
Swans were 7pts behind with 5 games to go, 15 pts to play for.
Swans now 6pts behind with 4 games to go, 12 pts to play for.
Gaining a point a game on the second place team is not good enough to overtake them, gaining two points a game on them before yesterday's games would have meant a draw in the head to head last game would be enough to finish above them, even gaining 2pts a game on them now would still probably mean we would have to beat them last game of season to finish above them as our goal difference is likely to be worse, so unfortunately the Swans are below the curve to overtake the second place team after yesterday's games, let's hope that changes but yesterday's results was a set back as regards automatic. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 12:14 - Apr 18 with 398 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 12:08 - Apr 18 by trampie |
Swans were 7pts behind with 5 games to go, 15 pts to play for.
Swans now 6pts behind with 4 games to go, 12 pts to play for.
Gaining a point a game on the second place team is not good enough to overtake them, gaining two points a game on them before yesterday's games would have meant a draw in the head to head last game would be enough to finish above them, even gaining 2pts a game on them now would still probably mean we would have to beat them last game of season to finish above them as our goal difference is likely to be worse, so unfortunately the Swans are below the curve to overtake the second place team after yesterday's games, let's hope that changes but yesterday's results was a set back as regards automatic. |
That’s primary school mathematics. In your calculations you have assumed every game is equal with an equal chance to get 0, 1 or 3 points. It isn’t.
You don’t have to look any further than the chances of Watford picking up 3 points in the last game. They were 1.75 meaning there was a 57.1% chance come today Watford would have had zero points gained on them (you can add the % chance of us losing onto that too). And even in that scenario we also had a 64% chance to take advantage.
Ergo, there was more chance before last game of us not gaining on them than gaining on them. The fact we have gained on them means we are in a better position now when we were likely to be before hand, meaning we have more chance now than we did 24 hours ago. [Post edited 18 Apr 2021 12:32]
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 12:21 - Apr 18 with 390 views | Dr_Parnassus |
An easier way to explain; is like this.
If we needed to get 4 points out of our last 2 games to guarantee survival in the Premier League. (2 points per game on average).
First game is against Man City away and the second is against Sheff Utd at home.
- We draw against Man City away, we now have more chance of securing survival than before the game, despite there being 1 less game left and not getting the average of that difference in that game (2pts a game). | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 12:42 - Apr 18 with 379 views | trampie |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 12:14 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
That’s primary school mathematics. In your calculations you have assumed every game is equal with an equal chance to get 0, 1 or 3 points. It isn’t.
You don’t have to look any further than the chances of Watford picking up 3 points in the last game. They were 1.75 meaning there was a 57.1% chance come today Watford would have had zero points gained on them (you can add the % chance of us losing onto that too). And even in that scenario we also had a 64% chance to take advantage.
Ergo, there was more chance before last game of us not gaining on them than gaining on them. The fact we have gained on them means we are in a better position now when we were likely to be before hand, meaning we have more chance now than we did 24 hours ago. [Post edited 18 Apr 2021 12:32]
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Two right not all games are equal Swansea was at home to the team that was bottom of the league, there is now one less game for Swansea to close the gap, Swansea did not close the gap by enough points to improve Swans chances of automatic, in fact Swans chances diminished by only gaining a single point whilst the gap is so large with so few games to go.
I expected Luton to get a result at home to their local rivals which they did but I also thought Swans would beat the bottom placed team in the league which they failed to do.
Those fixtures were in Swans favour to substantially close the gap, the gap was not closed by enough points making the goal of overtaking Watford harder.
If Swansea continue to gain a point on Watford every game between now and the last game of the regular season then Swansea will play Watford last game of the season and still be 3 points behind them and having to beat them by about 5 clear goals to finish above them (then there is the chance that somebody else may have overtaken both Watford and Swansea if Watford are losing every game and Swansea drawing every game till the last one), a one point gain is not good enough, it's behind the required run rate. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 12:46 - Apr 18 with 369 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 12:42 - Apr 18 by trampie |
Two right not all games are equal Swansea was at home to the team that was bottom of the league, there is now one less game for Swansea to close the gap, Swansea did not close the gap by enough points to improve Swans chances of automatic, in fact Swans chances diminished by only gaining a single point whilst the gap is so large with so few games to go.
I expected Luton to get a result at home to their local rivals which they did but I also thought Swans would beat the bottom placed team in the league which they failed to do.
Those fixtures were in Swans favour to substantially close the gap, the gap was not closed by enough points making the goal of overtaking Watford harder.
If Swansea continue to gain a point on Watford every game between now and the last game of the regular season then Swansea will play Watford last game of the season and still be 3 points behind them and having to beat them by about 5 clear goals to finish above them (then there is the chance that somebody else may have overtaken both Watford and Swansea if Watford are losing every game and Swansea drawing every game till the last one), a one point gain is not good enough, it's behind the required run rate. |
There is no required run rate. That implies all the games are the same, they aren’t.
Watford had a 57.1% chance to get all 3 points. Meaning there was more chance of not gaining on them than gaining. We gained, we are in a better position.
It really is that simple. | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:07 - Apr 18 with 346 views | trampie |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 12:46 - Apr 18 by Dr_Parnassus |
There is no required run rate. That implies all the games are the same, they aren’t.
Watford had a 57.1% chance to get all 3 points. Meaning there was more chance of not gaining on them than gaining. We gained, we are in a better position.
It really is that simple. |
Games are all the same as regards points available, there is a maximum of 3 points available regardless of the strength or weaknesses of the opposition.
Swans chances have suffered a set back as regards promotion after yesterday.
After yesterday's results and Watford's tough run in do you think Swansea will now gain automatic promotion ? | |
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| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:13 - Apr 18 with 341 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| The banana skin arrives and the swans slip all over the place. on 13:07 - Apr 18 by trampie |
Games are all the same as regards points available, there is a maximum of 3 points available regardless of the strength or weaknesses of the opposition.
Swans chances have suffered a set back as regards promotion after yesterday.
After yesterday's results and Watford's tough run in do you think Swansea will now gain automatic promotion ? |
Doesn’t matter, that isn’t what it’s based on.
Otherwise we would have the same chance to beat Norwich as we do Wycombe because 3 points are available in each.
But we don’t. It’s based on match by match probabilities.
I didn’t think we would gain automatic promotion before yesterday’s games, I still don’t today. But the fact we gained on them when statistically we were more likely not to, I recognise we now have a better chance today than we did yesterday.
But it’s still a very unlikely scenario. | |
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