| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale 20:25 - Aug 28 with 19518 views | RochdaleAFC.com |
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| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 08:53 - Aug 30 with 3082 views | somdale |
Didnt we sack Stockmoor after four games into a season, how did that end?
Its not always the answer and maybe giving Ian Watson more time is the way to go.
I think it has come as a shock to last seasons players just what a jump in class it is. Gilmour and East are no longer dominating midfield, Mani looked lost when he played, the new boys probably dont lnowntheir way round the home ground yet, so we need to be patient, some of them are only here because of injuries.
We have a huge downgrade in the keeper department, and that was almost inevitable.
We are allowing out players and saying the team arent as food as last seasons, but we are playing at a higher level, so its impossible to say.
Would the Dale side who played the last 10 games of last season done well this season, let's remember it was a real struggle wasn't it.
Sadly all momentum appears to have been lost. Too many changes have led to nobody really knowing what we have in the building.
Its going to take more time, nothing else can fix it. | | | |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 10:09 - Aug 30 with 2788 views | SaxonDale |
I actually thought we were better yesterday than what I’d seen previously. It was the sort of performance and result that probably wouldn’t have caused too much panic if we hadn’t lost the previous two in the style we did, and I felt that a clean sheet would’ve been a huge positive for the team to build on.
The caveat to this is that the way we set up yesterday- fairly passively and defensively, with only Brown up top feeding off scraps for a large chunk of the game- isn’t really a sustainable way of playing. I still think we’re a good few weeks off producing a team in the style that he mentioned in pre-season.
Whether he’ll get that time is another question. As many have said, we can’t risk relegation under any circumstances. I’m convinced this squad is good enough, under the right manager, to be comfortably mid-table, but it’s a tough balancing act between giving Watson time and not giving a new manager too much of an uphill battle. [Post edited 30 Aug 10:11]
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| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 10:16 - Aug 30 with 2747 views | Cedar_Room |
It’s a fact that Watson had exactly the same amount of first team managerial experience in the EFL as Hill, BBM and McNulty - none.
The big difference with those appointments though was that Hill, BBM and McNulty had spent most of their careers in the EFL as players with hundreds and hundreds of games of experience. Watson as a player never played above the 6th tier. He has never played a single game in the EFL.
Hill, BBM and McNulty also had years of experience at Rochdale - they knew the club and the squad inside out when taking over. Watson obviously had no connection with the team at all.
It’s also a fact that Rochdale has never been in this position before of being newly promoted from the National League. What might have been acceptable for previous appointments is irrelevant to the unique position we found ourselves in. Appointing a manager with no playing experience in the EFL, no managerial experience in the EFL and only one season as a first team manager of any sort is so self evidently a massive risk that I can’t believe anyone is out there still defending it. |  | | |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 10:50 - Aug 30 with 2599 views | 442Dale |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 10:16 - Aug 30 by Cedar_Room |
It’s a fact that Watson had exactly the same amount of first team managerial experience in the EFL as Hill, BBM and McNulty - none.
The big difference with those appointments though was that Hill, BBM and McNulty had spent most of their careers in the EFL as players with hundreds and hundreds of games of experience. Watson as a player never played above the 6th tier. He has never played a single game in the EFL.
Hill, BBM and McNulty also had years of experience at Rochdale - they knew the club and the squad inside out when taking over. Watson obviously had no connection with the team at all.
It’s also a fact that Rochdale has never been in this position before of being newly promoted from the National League. What might have been acceptable for previous appointments is irrelevant to the unique position we found ourselves in. Appointing a manager with no playing experience in the EFL, no managerial experience in the EFL and only one season as a first team manager of any sort is so self evidently a massive risk that I can’t believe anyone is out there still defending it. |
The point about knowing the club is a good one with the two most successful managers in the club’s history.
It certainly afforded McNulty more patience I think from the board during tough moments as he’d clearly installed a good culture and structure.
There’s been little argument that we’ve needed some football knowledge off the pitch. It’s been needed for a long time. McNulty papered over the cracks there because he understood most aspects of the club. |  |
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| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 11:32 - Aug 30 with 2486 views | JimmyRustler |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 10:16 - Aug 30 by Cedar_Room |
It’s a fact that Watson had exactly the same amount of first team managerial experience in the EFL as Hill, BBM and McNulty - none.
The big difference with those appointments though was that Hill, BBM and McNulty had spent most of their careers in the EFL as players with hundreds and hundreds of games of experience. Watson as a player never played above the 6th tier. He has never played a single game in the EFL.
Hill, BBM and McNulty also had years of experience at Rochdale - they knew the club and the squad inside out when taking over. Watson obviously had no connection with the team at all.
It’s also a fact that Rochdale has never been in this position before of being newly promoted from the National League. What might have been acceptable for previous appointments is irrelevant to the unique position we found ourselves in. Appointing a manager with no playing experience in the EFL, no managerial experience in the EFL and only one season as a first team manager of any sort is so self evidently a massive risk that I can’t believe anyone is out there still defending it. |
It’s hard to compare this managerial situation to any other in the clubs history.
This the first time that the club was not obligated to choose the “cheap” option (not that I’m saying IW’s was financially cheap but you understand what I mean).
After gaining promotion, it was absolutely vital that we employed someone with football league experience to give us the best possible chance of maintaining momentum. When you consider that we lost the spine of the promotion winning defence in Perry, Gordon and Whatmuff, that league football experience of identifying adequate replacements was also crucial.
Previous appointments of managers with little experience were made out of circumstance and necessity. Even “experienced” managers such as Bentley and Coleman had were largely one club men who were identified as replacements who were unlikely to financially cripple the club.
We didn’t need to take (what is on paper) a fairly uncalculated risk. But we did.
And we were all rightly supportive of the decision at the time as the board/owners are genuine people who have done exceptionally well so far and also demonstrably have the clubs best interest at heart.
However, in the cold light of day (and now with some hindsight), the decision looks not only a peculiar one but the wrong one.
Watson seems a good guy and most want him to succeed. But I can confidently say he isn’t the right man for the job. And I say that with a heavy heart. |  | | |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 11:37 - Aug 30 with 2474 views | mikehunt |
If we have to ditch IW, I wonder if Hendo could be persuaded to cover until we get ourselves sorted. He knows the club better than anyone else I suspect.
He might end up liking it and doing what Keef did first time round |  |
| The worm of time turns not for the cuckoo of circumstance. |
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| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 12:01 - Aug 30 with 2393 views | BlueWizard |
A lot of good points spoken above and the only point I would make from an honest point is... Has the team (newly gelled in a higher league) progressed from the first game ?? Yes, it has, and to be fair to lose that goal on 87 minutes was really unlucky !! Couple this with injured players who are slowly returning I believe the first 3pts is very close. Bear in mind in yesterday's performance that the best 2 players in our team were new players.. Adeeko & Kane... That's my viewpoint.
I also thought the 433 formation suited the team he put out, granted a couple of changes in the second half strengthened the performance, but if your honest looking through the whole match performance it's the first time I really thought we should have got a point, and the Cowley's reputations for good teams was nearly outdone by IW so to me it's painful the way we have started but I am prepared to give him more time as I can see the team improving | | | |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 13:55 - Aug 30 with 2112 views | 49thseason |
Mostly AI generated ..I wanted to take the emotion out of the arguments and concentrate on the facts..
"In EFL League Two, roughly 45% to 55% of managers fail to last a single year, reflecting some of the lowest job security in professional football.
Key Breakdown of League Two Sacking Trends
Average Tenure is Under a Year: According to historical data published by the League Managers Association (LMA), the average tenure of dismissed League Two managers has repeatedly dipped below the one-year mark. In the 2024/25 season, the average reign of a sacked League Two boss was just 0.90 years (roughly 10.8 months). In previous turbulent years like 2022/23, it dropped as low as 0.75 years (9 months).
High Casualty Volumes: A standard 24-club League Two season routinely sees an average of 11 to 14 managerial changes per year. Because the threat of relegation out of the EFL and into non-league football is financially catastrophic, club boards are notoriously impatient.
The "First-Time Manager" Trap: A high proportion of League Two appointments are young, first-time managers or coaches stepping up to their first senior role. LMA historical data consistently highlights that nearly 50% of first-time managers across the EFL are sacked within their first 12 months and never get a second managerial job in professional football.
The Core Squad Dictates Success:
Multiple sports economics studies show that a team's wage bill and overall player talent account for up to 80% to 90% of league table variance. A manager's experience rarely overcomes a structurally weak squad.
The Illusion of the "New Manager Bounce"
Regression to the Mean:
Clubs usually fire managers when team form hits rock bottom due to a combination of tough fixtures, a cluster of player injuries, or plain bad luck. Statistically, a team's luck and results will naturally bounce back toward their historical average eventually, regardless of who is standing in the technical area.
The "Control Group" Evidence:
Prominent studies by sports economists—such as Dr. Bas ter Weel and Professor Jan van Ours—tracked teams that suffered identical, deep slumps in form. They compared the clubs that sacked their manager against a "control group" of clubs that stood by their manager. Both groups recovered at virtually the same rate. In fact, some data shows that clubs sticking with their incumbent manager recovered to an even higher level of long-term form.
Short-Term vs. Long-Term:
A new manager might trigger a brief, psychological jolt in player motivation for the first 5 to 6 matches. However, data compiled by Sky Sports confirms that after this initial "purple patch," points-per-game metrics quickly taper off and return right back to where they were before the sacking took place.
Matchweek 10 Threshold.
Historical data compiled by football analysts shows that Matchweek 10 serves as the ultimate statistical checkpoint
The 77% Variance Factor:
Since the Premier League moved to a 20-team format, the league table position at Matchweek 10 explains over three-quarters (77%) of the variance in final standings.
The 5-Place Rule:
Roughly 90% of teams finish the 38-game season within five places of where they were sitting after the first 10 games
The Exact Match:
A quarter (25%) of all teams finish the season in the exact same spot they occupied after Matchweek 10.
Why Is It Hard to Break the Cycle?
The Compounding Psychological Toll:
A bad start physically alters player brain mechanics, making them focus excessively on mistakes. Anxiety dulls on-pitch spatial awareness and decision-making, turning a short-term slump into a long term decline
The Panic Metric:
Because boards react to early point shortages by panicking and firing managers, the disruption of changing tactical systems mid-stream often worsens the long-term trajectory of the season.
Where Rochdale Currently Feature:
Yesterday's possession 61% (Top tier in League Two)They completely dominate the ball under Ian Watson. Passes Per Game~430 passes emphasises their patient, short-passing build-up. However, an Xg of 0.2 is the worst in the EFL2
The Verdict:
Are They Doomed?
The Reality of 0.2 xG: Averaging a near-non-existent 0.07 xG per match means Rochdale are essentially passing the ball in harmless areas. Their 61% possession is entirely passive—circulating the ball across the backline and midfield without ever penetrating the penalty box or generating genuine shots.
The "Doomed" Outlook: Applying the Matchweek 10 threshold to this reality gives a poor prediction. Because Rochdale are combining poor results (0 points) with abysmal underlying metrics (0.2 xG), they fit the exact profile of a team heading toward a guaranteed season-long relegation battle rather than a fluke slump." -
End of AI -
Put simply, the chances of any managerial appointment working well is a 50/ 50 bet,
as is sacking a manager mid- season. Watson's squad currently lacks battle- hardened professionals, we pass the ball well, but there is no end product. 10 games is an reasonable measure of likely performance over the rest of the season.
Conclusion.. there is currently little to be optimistic about, we are defending poorly and not looking as if we can score a goal.. changing the manager probably will not improve much .. The main problem is an injury hit squad that probably lacks the means to win games even if it is ever fully fit. Other than a huge, for us, expenditure on more players, its hard to see a way out.. Watson has to at least simplify his "system", whatever it is, pick his best players in their best positions and hope he gets some players back to fitness quickly..its early days and the next 2 home games are critical, we need some momentum and confidence. |  | | |
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| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 14:22 - Aug 30 with 2004 views | joecooke |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 11:37 - Aug 30 by mikehunt |
If we have to ditch IW, I wonder if Hendo could be persuaded to cover until we get ourselves sorted. He knows the club better than anyone else I suspect.
He might end up liking it and doing what Keef did first time round |
Not the worst idea in the world should our owners decide enoughs enough at some point.
Personally i would like to see a very experienced (John Hollins) type of person brought in to the club ,to help both the owners/board and an inexperienced manager and backroom staff with navigating the league football world so to speak. |  |
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| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 14:22 - Aug 30 with 2002 views | jonahwhereru |
Just seen owain’s vlog. One thing was clear to me the players are still playing for the club and the supporters. They put in a shift, especially defensively. That’s the good news.
However I listened to Cowley’s interview after the game and one of his first comments was it was good to get the three points and a clean sheet because I don’t think we played very well. The trouble with that comment is they looked more assured and measured in possession than we did. We seem to be surrendering possession too easily. That has something to do with our players struggling with the physicality of the opposition.
We are three EFL established players short of what is required. We are only looking to get one / two players in.
My ideal at the moment would be to hawk one / two of Mani, Dev, East and Gilmour to a National league team ( they would be considered proper assets at that level) and bring in two players with the solid EFL experience, who do not have a history of injury issues. Could we do that in the time available, no hope. This squad is not good enough. I get the likes of Beckwith, Hayes and Petit are out, but we have a long season ahead and the quality is spread to thin, taking further injuries into account.
Some measured surgery is already required quickly. The January window a lot of points away.
It feels strange to already have moved from elation to desperate hope, but that’s football.
UTD | | | |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 14:37 - Aug 30 with 1951 views | EllDale |
The problem is that there are EFL experienced players and EFL experienced players.
Sherring for example had 120 appearances at this level before this season and yet doesn’t appear to have made a positive impression amongst Dale fans.
Signing two more like him wouldn’t make much difference.
We’ve signed a dozen players since Watson’s appointment; were some of those panic buys without MRKT input?
The first job is to tighten the defence which seems to be happening. We were only eight minutes off a clean sheet yesterday which is infinitely better than at Newport.
The manager needs to decide his preferred system and then recruit accordingly. Why the hell wasn’t a direct replacement for Gordon sourced as a first priority?
Mind you it doesn’t help where there are fixtures scheduled on deadline day.
Two decent showings at home this week can settle the nerves. I’d still bet on Salford’s coach going before Watson but the next six days are crucial. | | | |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 15:44 - Aug 30 with 1743 views | Yorkshire_Dale |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 11:37 - Aug 30 by mikehunt |
If we have to ditch IW, I wonder if Hendo could be persuaded to cover until we get ourselves sorted. He knows the club better than anyone else I suspect.
He might end up liking it and doing what Keef did first time round |
I would support that idea but we all know Hendo has other outside businesses and commitments.
As a start, now that he is back from honeymoon perhaps he could be persuaded to help the two new guys if only coaching the forwards. He must know the Book on attacking football. | | | |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 16:19 - Aug 30 with 1603 views | NorthernDale |
If IW remains manager, he needs experienced support, someone like Hendo and even Keith Hill to advice him and assist with the coaching, will it happen, I doubt it. It is constantly changing of the team system, which may be an issue is it causing confusion. The game against Shrewsbury is a most win in my humble opinion, otherwise the mood may force the board to react.
So we could go into Tuesday with the players still learning from the mistakes as IW says after every game, but nothing seem to change, perhaps it is not only the players who are making the errors .
Hopefully we can sign players before the deadline, IW as indicated he is looking to recruit a couple of players by Tuesday in the hope of strengthening the squad, with one being rumoured to be the 19 year old fullback, Jay Sway from Huddersfield, but Exeter are rumoured to be interested in him as well. As others have posted we need at least three experience pro's, including a striker, which I agree with. If Jamie Allen & Brandon Williams are training with the Dale as implied in last Tuesday's open day, is there talks ongoing or not? | | | |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 17:02 - Aug 30 with 1495 views | tony_roch975 |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 14:37 - Aug 30 by EllDale |
The problem is that there are EFL experienced players and EFL experienced players.
Sherring for example had 120 appearances at this level before this season and yet doesn’t appear to have made a positive impression amongst Dale fans.
Signing two more like him wouldn’t make much difference.
We’ve signed a dozen players since Watson’s appointment; were some of those panic buys without MRKT input?
The first job is to tighten the defence which seems to be happening. We were only eight minutes off a clean sheet yesterday which is infinitely better than at Newport.
The manager needs to decide his preferred system and then recruit accordingly. Why the hell wasn’t a direct replacement for Gordon sourced as a first priority?
Mind you it doesn’t help where there are fixtures scheduled on deadline day.
Two decent showings at home this week can settle the nerves. I’d still bet on Salford’s coach going before Watson but the next six days are crucial. |
Absolutely - he took over a squad who'd won 106 points; replace the losses (Perry was covered by Beckwith) so Gordon (who was the attacking fulcrum and the one player at higher than EFL2 level) and a good keeper were the priorities but none of his 9 outfield signings cover Gordon. Keep the current system which was built to accommodate the squad's strengths and, more importantly, their weaknesses. Then give them a chance to prove they could cut it in EFL2 and make the changes to your preferred system over the season and 2+ transfer windows.
Agree 2 good showings can settle the nerves but...... [Post edited 30 Aug 17:13]
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| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 17:56 - Aug 30 with 1330 views | D_Alien |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 17:02 - Aug 30 by tony_roch975 |
Absolutely - he took over a squad who'd won 106 points; replace the losses (Perry was covered by Beckwith) so Gordon (who was the attacking fulcrum and the one player at higher than EFL2 level) and a good keeper were the priorities but none of his 9 outfield signings cover Gordon. Keep the current system which was built to accommodate the squad's strengths and, more importantly, their weaknesses. Then give them a chance to prove they could cut it in EFL2 and make the changes to your preferred system over the season and 2+ transfer windows.
Agree 2 good showings can settle the nerves but...... [Post edited 30 Aug 17:13]
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All sounds so straightforward doesn't it... to anyone who's been following our progress the last couple of seasons. All these "why didn't he just do this..." sounds reasonable, except for reality
Not specifically aimed at your comment tr, just that he was appointed on the basis of what was working for him, and found himself playing catchup following a season like no other at the COA
I think that's how the board will see it - having said which they'll also be very aware of protecting what's been acheived so far. Saxondale referred to this balancing act, and whilst i'm not a fan of AI analyses, 49th's post indicated that sticking rather than twisting produces an outcome that favours sticking more often than not |  |
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| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 18:50 - Aug 30 with 1183 views | 442Dale |
| Refwatch - Colchester United v Rochdale on 16:19 - Aug 30 by NorthernDale |
If IW remains manager, he needs experienced support, someone like Hendo and even Keith Hill to advice him and assist with the coaching, will it happen, I doubt it. It is constantly changing of the team system, which may be an issue is it causing confusion. The game against Shrewsbury is a most win in my humble opinion, otherwise the mood may force the board to react.
So we could go into Tuesday with the players still learning from the mistakes as IW says after every game, but nothing seem to change, perhaps it is not only the players who are making the errors .
Hopefully we can sign players before the deadline, IW as indicated he is looking to recruit a couple of players by Tuesday in the hope of strengthening the squad, with one being rumoured to be the 19 year old fullback, Jay Sway from Huddersfield, but Exeter are rumoured to be interested in him as well. As others have posted we need at least three experience pro's, including a striker, which I agree with. If Jamie Allen & Brandon Williams are training with the Dale as implied in last Tuesday's open day, is there talks ongoing or not? |
What coaching experience does Henderson have?
He may/may not be assisting already where he can. Same as any other senior player. | |
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