| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins 12:26 - Nov 28 with 7454 views | westwalesed |
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162
Impending financial doom whatever Brexit outcome we have.
What they fail to understand is that many Leavers like myself knew that leaving the EU would leave the country poorer in the short term. It was about more than that.
But the deal will be rightly rejected, we will have a new Referendum, the Leave vote will be deliberately split with three options (Deal, No Deal, Remain) and we will end up Remaining.
Then all the thicko-inbreds from ghastly places like the North East and the Welsh Valleys can jolly well get back in their boxes.
Ruthlessly crushed. |  |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 11:48 - Nov 29 with 1107 views | Shaky |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 11:42 - Nov 29 by Highjack |
So a cartoon of a bloke blowing up the world then popping it with a pin and saying “oops” is outstanding research? |
The conclusion was heavy criticism of the monetary policy of the US central bank, known as the Federal Reserve, and its then chairman Alan Greenspan.
So yes, analytically rigorous, penetrating and timely. |  |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 12:07 - Nov 29 with 1093 views | Batterseajack |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 10:51 - Nov 29 by Highjack |
It’s a real pity these leading economists with their models and their graphs and their powers of clairvoyance didn’t predict the financial crash in 2008. |
Canada managed to miss the worst impacts of the financial crisis in 2008. | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 12:16 - Nov 29 with 1083 views | westwalesed |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 09:19 - Nov 29 by ItchySphincter |
Maybe he’s a thick racist that likes being skint? |
That’s disgraceful and you owe me an apology. But seeing as you brought it up....
I have two degrees from top ten Universities in the UK.
I am a fully qualified History teacher, though I don’t teach any longer.
I don’t have a racist bone in my body.
I work for a Third Sector Mental Health charity. I see the impact of people actually being skint every day. | |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 12:16 - Nov 29 with 1083 views | LeonWasGod |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 08:12 - Nov 29 by westwalesed |
The trouble I have with these forecasts is simply this. The Bank of England is supposed to be impartial. So, fine give us the worst case scenario which they have over and over. Where is the best case scenario then? On good assumptions? |
They did:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary
The trouble is that the media only focuses on the headlines that'll generate the most traffic, which are then propagated through social media and twunks like Iain Dale (again just to drive traffic). It just highlights the stupidity of our soundbite-driven society: sensible discourse isn't possible and people think they are debating by reciting political slogans parrot fashion. The world's gone mad. |  | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 12:22 - Nov 29 with 1078 views | LeonWasGod |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 12:16 - Nov 29 by westwalesed |
That’s disgraceful and you owe me an apology. But seeing as you brought it up....
I have two degrees from top ten Universities in the UK.
I am a fully qualified History teacher, though I don’t teach any longer.
I don’t have a racist bone in my body.
I work for a Third Sector Mental Health charity. I see the impact of people actually being skint every day. |
Only 2 degrees? What a feckwit!  | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 12:46 - Nov 29 with 1064 views | westwalesed |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 12:16 - Nov 29 by LeonWasGod |
They did:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary
The trouble is that the media only focuses on the headlines that'll generate the most traffic, which are then propagated through social media and twunks like Iain Dale (again just to drive traffic). It just highlights the stupidity of our soundbite-driven society: sensible discourse isn't possible and people think they are debating by reciting political slogans parrot fashion. The world's gone mad. |
Thanks for the link, I didn't realise that - must be because I'm a thicko Leaver.
In all seriousness, it does point to a problem which is that the Media are jumping on bad news stories rather than the potential benefits. How often have we seen headlines stating "despite Brexit" in the last two years? | |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 12:51 - Nov 29 with 1045 views | LeonWasGod |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 12:46 - Nov 29 by westwalesed |
Thanks for the link, I didn't realise that - must be because I'm a thicko Leaver.
In all seriousness, it does point to a problem which is that the Media are jumping on bad news stories rather than the potential benefits. How often have we seen headlines stating "despite Brexit" in the last two years? |
It sells papers and drives clicks I suppose. I agree it's all very depressing. | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:01 - Nov 29 with 1035 views | Shaky |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 12:46 - Nov 29 by westwalesed |
Thanks for the link, I didn't realise that - must be because I'm a thicko Leaver.
In all seriousness, it does point to a problem which is that the Media are jumping on bad news stories rather than the potential benefits. How often have we seen headlines stating "despite Brexit" in the last two years? |
Just to clarify, that chart suggests the only upside surprise is generated by the 'Close relationship' scenario which sounds like an euphemism for remain.
The positive boost no doubt coming from a return of foreign investment that would otherwise be diverting or exiting the UK.
And looking at the downside no deal scenarios, both assume that the negative fallout will last no more than year, and that the country will then get back on a reasonably steady growth trajectory.
i find that unrealistically positive, and likely influenced by reference to other past bubble bursts and episodes of capital flight. However, they tend to occur in significantly less developed economies, whereas the UK has been a major manufacturing base for many non-US companies historically and especially since the late 80s,
I think the downturn would last for years. [Post edited 29 Nov 2018 13:01]
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:30 - Nov 29 with 1010 views | Catullus |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:01 - Nov 29 by Shaky |
Just to clarify, that chart suggests the only upside surprise is generated by the 'Close relationship' scenario which sounds like an euphemism for remain.
The positive boost no doubt coming from a return of foreign investment that would otherwise be diverting or exiting the UK.
And looking at the downside no deal scenarios, both assume that the negative fallout will last no more than year, and that the country will then get back on a reasonably steady growth trajectory.
i find that unrealistically positive, and likely influenced by reference to other past bubble bursts and episodes of capital flight. However, they tend to occur in significantly less developed economies, whereas the UK has been a major manufacturing base for many non-US companies historically and especially since the late 80s,
I think the downturn would last for years. [Post edited 29 Nov 2018 13:01]
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The downturn could last for a longer period, or it could be 2/3 years. What so many people are scared of is the unknown quantity.
No one knows for sure if it will be "insert any opinion of brexit, good or bad" and the unknown is scary.
The government would have to take action to stabilise and improve any situation. That's partly why the EU wants us tied in. If we can make our own rules they are worried we'd succeed. It has been labelled as many different versions of a race to the bottom, but it doesn't have to be that way.
What annoys me is that so many remainers shout loudly what a failure brexit WILL be, they can't for a moment think that it might (in the long term) be a good thing. | |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:50 - Nov 29 with 1001 views | Batterseajack |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:30 - Nov 29 by Catullus |
The downturn could last for a longer period, or it could be 2/3 years. What so many people are scared of is the unknown quantity.
No one knows for sure if it will be "insert any opinion of brexit, good or bad" and the unknown is scary.
The government would have to take action to stabilise and improve any situation. That's partly why the EU wants us tied in. If we can make our own rules they are worried we'd succeed. It has been labelled as many different versions of a race to the bottom, but it doesn't have to be that way.
What annoys me is that so many remainers shout loudly what a failure brexit WILL be, they can't for a moment think that it might (in the long term) be a good thing. |
The onus is on leavers to help us understand what the upsides are. If rules changes aren't a race to the bottom, then tell us specifically how and what rules should change and how that would be an advantage to us.
Merely saying, by changing our rules, we might somehow be richer just isn't good enough. | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 14:12 - Nov 29 with 988 views | westwalesed |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:50 - Nov 29 by Batterseajack |
The onus is on leavers to help us understand what the upsides are. If rules changes aren't a race to the bottom, then tell us specifically how and what rules should change and how that would be an advantage to us.
Merely saying, by changing our rules, we might somehow be richer just isn't good enough. |
No, if the Bank Of England which is supposed to be impartial and can produce forecasts based on assumptions (negative ones) which lead to financial projections which heavily influence public opinion, then the Bank of England can produce forecasts based on positive assumptions about the benefits of Brexit too.
The onus is on the BoE to be balanced in it's forecasts. | |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 14:27 - Nov 29 with 979 views | majorraglan |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 14:12 - Nov 29 by westwalesed |
No, if the Bank Of England which is supposed to be impartial and can produce forecasts based on assumptions (negative ones) which lead to financial projections which heavily influence public opinion, then the Bank of England can produce forecasts based on positive assumptions about the benefits of Brexit too.
The onus is on the BoE to be balanced in it's forecasts. |
I agree about forecasts about positive assumptions about the benefits, but maybe there aren’t any yet that they can base their figures on. It seems to be commonly accepted that GDP will decrease. We don’t currently have any trade deals yet nor can we negotiate any. | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 14:37 - Nov 29 with 972 views | Highjack |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 14:12 - Nov 29 by westwalesed |
No, if the Bank Of England which is supposed to be impartial and can produce forecasts based on assumptions (negative ones) which lead to financial projections which heavily influence public opinion, then the Bank of England can produce forecasts based on positive assumptions about the benefits of Brexit too.
The onus is on the BoE to be balanced in it's forecasts. |
Any respectable body shouldn’t be making assumptions in the first place. |  |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 14:39 - Nov 29 with 969 views | Batterseajack |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 14:12 - Nov 29 by westwalesed |
No, if the Bank Of England which is supposed to be impartial and can produce forecasts based on assumptions (negative ones) which lead to financial projections which heavily influence public opinion, then the Bank of England can produce forecasts based on positive assumptions about the benefits of Brexit too.
The onus is on the BoE to be balanced in it's forecasts. |
The bank of englands sole job in this study is to make sure the £ and banking system can survive every eventuality from a range of brexits, from close alignment with EU to no deal WTO brexit.
Just because you don't like its findings, doesn't make it not impartial.
What positive assumptions have they missed off from the disordely and no deal brexits? [Post edited 29 Nov 2018 14:40]
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 14:50 - Nov 29 with 957 views | WarwickHunt |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 14:12 - Nov 29 by westwalesed |
No, if the Bank Of England which is supposed to be impartial and can produce forecasts based on assumptions (negative ones) which lead to financial projections which heavily influence public opinion, then the Bank of England can produce forecasts based on positive assumptions about the benefits of Brexit too.
The onus is on the BoE to be balanced in it's forecasts. |
What are the BoE going to base their positive projected figures on - organic unicorn meat exports?
Fantasy deals that haven’t been made yet?
It’s all jam tomorrow, except it probably won’t happen for at least a generation. Or more likely never. |  | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 15:10 - Nov 29 with 933 views | Batterseajack |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 14:50 - Nov 29 by WarwickHunt |
What are the BoE going to base their positive projected figures on - organic unicorn meat exports?
Fantasy deals that haven’t been made yet?
It’s all jam tomorrow, except it probably won’t happen for at least a generation. Or more likely never. |
Increased sales in bendy bananas is all i can think of | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 16:02 - Nov 29 with 918 views | Catullus |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 15:10 - Nov 29 by Batterseajack |
Increased sales in bendy bananas is all i can think of |
Those last two posts by Warwick and BSJ illustrate my point exactly. Some remainers just will not accept there could be an upside and even if it all turned out very well they will be moaning that if we'd stayed in the EU it would have been better still.
Battersea, the BoE isn't supposed to be one sided, Carney has been pro remain from the beginning. He has been a negative voice even when things went better than he said they would, he kept finding negatives. You raise that we cannot negotiate trade deals yet which is true and you also know why we can't, don't you. The EU forbade it until we have left. | |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 16:08 - Nov 29 with 917 views | LeonWasGod |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 16:02 - Nov 29 by Catullus |
Those last two posts by Warwick and BSJ illustrate my point exactly. Some remainers just will not accept there could be an upside and even if it all turned out very well they will be moaning that if we'd stayed in the EU it would have been better still.
Battersea, the BoE isn't supposed to be one sided, Carney has been pro remain from the beginning. He has been a negative voice even when things went better than he said they would, he kept finding negatives. You raise that we cannot negotiate trade deals yet which is true and you also know why we can't, don't you. The EU forbade it until we have left. |
I'd probably be easier for people to believe in an upside if someone had some evidence for how it will be better. At the moment it just seems to be faith based. | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 16:23 - Nov 29 with 895 views | sherpajacob |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 14:37 - Nov 29 by Highjack |
Any respectable body shouldn’t be making assumptions in the first place. |
If you are making forecasts, which the BoE is required to do, it is necessary to make assumptions.
if the assumptions are based on past evidence that seems fair enough to me.
Like the evidence that the UK economy has performed significantly better since joining the EEC and particularly since the formation of the single market, than it did in the period prior to us joining the EEC when our main competitors Germany, France and Italy were founder members and The UK became the sick man of Europe.
https://www.ft.com/content/202a60c0-cfd8-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377 |  |
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 16:29 - Nov 29 with 886 views | Batterseajack |
Brexit latest:
Weather forecasters are biased. They’re information is based on historic data and have no way of telling the future without making assumptions. It could be 25 degree tomorrow but they won’t say that because they’re seasonally biased. | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 16:36 - Nov 29 with 885 views | Batterseajack |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 16:02 - Nov 29 by Catullus |
Those last two posts by Warwick and BSJ illustrate my point exactly. Some remainers just will not accept there could be an upside and even if it all turned out very well they will be moaning that if we'd stayed in the EU it would have been better still.
Battersea, the BoE isn't supposed to be one sided, Carney has been pro remain from the beginning. He has been a negative voice even when things went better than he said they would, he kept finding negatives. You raise that we cannot negotiate trade deals yet which is true and you also know why we can't, don't you. The EU forbade it until we have left. |
WTF are you talking about?!?
What possible short term upsides could there possible be by going from 0% tariffs and no customs checks to WTO with our nearest and biggest trading partner with barely a couple of months to prepare???
Pretty much every Brexiteer admits there will be short term disruption to the economy if we go for a disruptive, no deal brexit, so why is it contentious when Mark Carney confirms that up with his economic forecast?
His job is to protect the banks, and not justify the promises sold to leavers.
Just because you don;t like what he says, doesn't automatically mean he's biased. [Post edited 29 Nov 2018 16:45]
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| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:31 - Nov 29 with 842 views | Jango |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 16:36 - Nov 29 by Batterseajack |
WTF are you talking about?!?
What possible short term upsides could there possible be by going from 0% tariffs and no customs checks to WTO with our nearest and biggest trading partner with barely a couple of months to prepare???
Pretty much every Brexiteer admits there will be short term disruption to the economy if we go for a disruptive, no deal brexit, so why is it contentious when Mark Carney confirms that up with his economic forecast?
His job is to protect the banks, and not justify the promises sold to leavers.
Just because you don;t like what he says, doesn't automatically mean he's biased. [Post edited 29 Nov 2018 16:45]
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He’s biased battersea. Just because you are obsessed with the EU and want to believe every bit of negativity you read about Brexit, doesn’t mean he isn’t biased. Impossible to take anything you say serious when you’re so one sided. | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:42 - Nov 29 with 834 views | WarwickHunt |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 16:02 - Nov 29 by Catullus |
Those last two posts by Warwick and BSJ illustrate my point exactly. Some remainers just will not accept there could be an upside and even if it all turned out very well they will be moaning that if we'd stayed in the EU it would have been better still.
Battersea, the BoE isn't supposed to be one sided, Carney has been pro remain from the beginning. He has been a negative voice even when things went better than he said they would, he kept finding negatives. You raise that we cannot negotiate trade deals yet which is true and you also know why we can't, don't you. The EU forbade it until we have left. |
Tell us what and when then. Brexiters have had two years and I’ve yet to see anything remotely resembling a plan other than “ let’s get out and things will be better”.
The BoE isn’t one-sided. Which bit of “central bank” are you struggling with?
Is the Treasury one-sided too?
Christ on a fûcking bike... | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:50 - Nov 29 with 830 views | bluey_the_blue |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:42 - Nov 29 by WarwickHunt |
Tell us what and when then. Brexiters have had two years and I’ve yet to see anything remotely resembling a plan other than “ let’s get out and things will be better”.
The BoE isn’t one-sided. Which bit of “central bank” are you struggling with?
Is the Treasury one-sided too?
Christ on a fûcking bike... |
Is that Treasury you refer to the same that predicted armageddon upon a Leave vote occuring? | | | |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 17:50 - Nov 29 with 829 views | karnataka |
| Project Fear Mark 2 Begins on 13:57 - Nov 28 by westwalesed |
Lets just take the Sovereignty argument. I used Trade deals as an example but it can just as easily be applied to Fisheries, Agriculture, Immigration, whatever.
I believe, as a point of principal, that any laws or decisions taken (and that therefore could affect my life and how I choose to live it) should be taken by elected representatives or are democratically and directly accountable to me. I do not believe that a foreign Parliament should carry precedence over the UK Parliament, particularly as the people who propose laws debated in that Parliament are unelected.
I believe that the benefits of full and complete self determination are that the UK is able to forge it's own way in the World, is able to respond to its own needs first and that this would lead to prosperity in the future. |
"I believe, as a point of principal, that any laws or decisions taken (and that therefore could affect my life and how I choose to live it) should be taken by elected representatives or are democratically and directly accountable to me.
It is an absolute fact that every single law in force in the UK is the result of an Act of Parliament and constitutionally, there is no other way of anything becoming Law in the UK. It is absolutely untrue that the EU has precedence over our elected UK Parliament and I don't understand why many people believe otherwise unless they are being led by the anti-EU press. We are not leaving the EU because of the 2016 referendum which, by definition in our constitution, was only advisory, we are leaving because an Act of Parliament was passed in 2017. In fact, we only had the referendum because an Act of Parliament was passed decreeing that we would have one and if another referendum takes place in the near future, that will only happen once another Act of Parliament is passed decreeing that we should have another one. |  | | |
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