| “We need to rotate” 19:32 - Mar 20 with 13065 views | Dr_Parnassus |
Can we stop with that nonsense now please, and realise the fact that we have an incredibly front loaded and lop sided squad.
Bidwell looked like a player that had been rotated, no sharpness and no fluidity and about 3 yards off the pace. Whittaker for all his effort has nowhere near the physical attributes to be playing at this level yet, he showed what he could be at times and is going to be a very good player I have no doubt, but he was knocked off the ball every time he was challenged and we gave up possession far too easily. Naughton is not a centre back and what benefits he may give us when we have the ball sadly we lose without it, we were dominated in the air in both boxes.
We need to play our best team and accept we will be tired at times, that’s the nature of football when you don’t have a big squad full of quality. Which is something we don’t have despite many pretending otherwise.
I am full of praise for the management team and their achievements thus far but one area where I feel disappointed in is I don’t think they have blocked out the noise efficiently enough. To me, it looks like they have allowed desperate opinion to be picked up by journalists and has allowed that to permeate their decision making. This latest game seems to be the epitome of that. It was a disjointed game with what looked like a cobbled together team.
Cabango, Lowe and Smith have to start. |  |
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| “We need to rotate” on 18:06 - Mar 22 with 841 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| “We need to rotate” on 18:04 - Mar 22 by 9MilesHigh |
How about a deal? What about you go off and obsess about American politics again and leave Naughton alone? |
I’ll stop saying Cabango is better than Naughton when you stop obsessing and leave Cooper alone.
If my view of Cabango is causing you that much distress I will make that deal. | |
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| “We need to rotate” on 18:08 - Mar 22 with 841 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| “We need to rotate” on 18:05 - Mar 22 by 9MilesHigh |
We would have far more chance that a shot that hit the bar? |
Huh?
We have far more chance of scoring by crossing it into the box with Cabango in it than passing and shooting from 20 yards yes. | |
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| “We need to rotate” on 18:12 - Mar 22 with 834 views | 9MilesHigh |
| “We need to rotate” on 18:04 - Mar 22 by Dr_Parnassus |
Who is talking guarantees?
I said Cabango stops that chance in the air more times than Naughton does.
Again it’s obvious. You are trying to be too clever. You are better than that. |
But Naughton wasn't at fault at all for their goal.
Why didn't Cabango deal with the Bristol City corner? Sometimes goals go in regardless of how big defenders are.
Haven't Cardiff got a very poor record of conceding from set pieces? And how big are they?
Basically, your whole argument is built on sand Squire. |  | | |
| “We need to rotate” on 18:15 - Mar 22 with 828 views | 9MilesHigh |
| “We need to rotate” on 18:08 - Mar 22 by Dr_Parnassus |
Huh?
We have far more chance of scoring by crossing it into the box with Cabango in it than passing and shooting from 20 yards yes. |
Like the Ayew header that hit the post?
How many aerial battles did Swansea win in the opposition box compared to Cardiff in ours?
Come on? | | | |
| “We need to rotate” on 18:15 - Mar 22 with 827 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| “We need to rotate” on 18:12 - Mar 22 by 9MilesHigh |
But Naughton wasn't at fault at all for their goal.
Why didn't Cabango deal with the Bristol City corner? Sometimes goals go in regardless of how big defenders are.
Haven't Cardiff got a very poor record of conceding from set pieces? And how big are they?
Basically, your whole argument is built on sand Squire. |
It has nothing to do with fault.
An attacking ball into the box gets headed by Peter Crouch more often than it does Joe Allen. That’s not saying Allen is at fault for the ball not ending up on target. Just the way it is.
My argument is rock solid as I have shown. Which is why your few minutes has turned into an hour and your once weekly visits are now multiple, daily visits solely talking to me. | |
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| “We need to rotate” on 18:17 - Mar 22 with 826 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| “We need to rotate” on 18:15 - Mar 22 by 9MilesHigh |
Like the Ayew header that hit the post?
How many aerial battles did Swansea win in the opposition box compared to Cardiff in ours?
Come on? |
Yes like the Ayew header. You are talking to the wrong person regarding laws of averages and probabilities. You are making the mistake of taking isolated incidents and attributing them to a wider scope.
A bit like taking an Aiden Newhouse goal (was there one?) and saying to someone who is making the point that Trundle finishes more chances and saying...“see”. | |
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| “We need to rotate” on 18:33 - Mar 22 with 806 views | 9MilesHigh |
| “We need to rotate” on 18:15 - Mar 22 by Dr_Parnassus |
It has nothing to do with fault.
An attacking ball into the box gets headed by Peter Crouch more often than it does Joe Allen. That’s not saying Allen is at fault for the ball not ending up on target. Just the way it is.
My argument is rock solid as I have shown. Which is why your few minutes has turned into an hour and your once weekly visits are now multiple, daily visits solely talking to me. |
Even if the ball is right on Joe's head and nowhere near Crouch?
That's a strange argument to having nearly at nearly 5 in the morning don't you think? | | | |
| “We need to rotate” on 18:35 - Mar 22 with 805 views | 9MilesHigh |
| “We need to rotate” on 18:17 - Mar 22 by Dr_Parnassus |
Yes like the Ayew header. You are talking to the wrong person regarding laws of averages and probabilities. You are making the mistake of taking isolated incidents and attributing them to a wider scope.
A bit like taking an Aiden Newhouse goal (was there one?) and saying to someone who is making the point that Trundle finishes more chances and saying...“see”. |
An osolated incident like the one time a ball came in our box you mean?
And even that one ball we won the only aerial challenge.
Going to sleep and ball watching was to blame there not getting done in the air.
Come on, understand what you are trying to say.
ps was Aiden playing last time you watched the Swans? | | | |
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| “We need to rotate” on 18:40 - Mar 22 with 799 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| “We need to rotate” on 18:33 - Mar 22 by 9MilesHigh |
Even if the ball is right on Joe's head and nowhere near Crouch?
That's a strange argument to having nearly at nearly 5 in the morning don't you think? |
You do t understand the analogy. They aren’t on the pitch together, one is a high ball into the box with Crouch playing. The other is the same ball into the box with Allen playing there. Crouch will head that on target more times than Allen, just common sense.
That Cardiff goal, Cabango stops that goal in the box more often than the same chance with Naughton there. Again common sense. Nobody is saying he would stop it every time, nobody is saying it’s Naughtons fault.
Absolutely it’s a strange discussion to be having; but as I said, this is how you get when someone you are upset with disagrees with you. | |
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| “We need to rotate” on 18:45 - Mar 22 with 795 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| “We need to rotate” on 18:35 - Mar 22 by 9MilesHigh |
An osolated incident like the one time a ball came in our box you mean?
And even that one ball we won the only aerial challenge.
Going to sleep and ball watching was to blame there not getting done in the air.
Come on, understand what you are trying to say.
ps was Aiden playing last time you watched the Swans? |
No, not like that. Again you clearly aren’t understanding laws of averages.
Going to sleep and ball watching, agreed. A right back that is poor in the air is far more prone to do that than a tall natural CB who is more likely to attack the ball or have better positional awareness.
Just like an attacking ball into the box with Trundle in it is far more likely to end up a goal than one with Alan Tate. That’s not saying Trundle scores every time, that’s not saying Tate never scores - law of averages say Trundle would be the better option in the box. | |
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| “We need to rotate” on 19:13 - Mar 22 with 777 views | jack247 |
| “We need to rotate” on 15:56 - Mar 22 by Dr_Parnassus |
It was an easy enough one to do actually.
Playing the wider of the three CB’s, Cabango has an average rating of 7.06.
Naughton has an average rating of 6.70. [Post edited 22 Mar 2021 15:57]
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According to whoscored.com
Matt Grimes 6.97
Conor Hourihane 6.86
Jay Fulton 6.79
Korey Smith 6.48
Kasey Palmer 6.33
No stats for Yan Dhanda.
If you’re going to use a website that thinks Conor has been our second best midfielder this season to validate your opinion, you’re going to have to excuse people who take it with a pinch of salt. |  | | |
| “We need to rotate” on 20:33 - Mar 22 with 743 views | onehunglow |
Boys.Save time .Brisbane or Bargoed.Makes no difference.
Trust your eyes.
What you see is what you get normally. | |
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| “We need to rotate” on 21:21 - Mar 22 with 745 views | 9MilesHigh |
| “We need to rotate” on 18:45 - Mar 22 by Dr_Parnassus |
No, not like that. Again you clearly aren’t understanding laws of averages.
Going to sleep and ball watching, agreed. A right back that is poor in the air is far more prone to do that than a tall natural CB who is more likely to attack the ball or have better positional awareness.
Just like an attacking ball into the box with Trundle in it is far more likely to end up a goal than one with Alan Tate. That’s not saying Trundle scores every time, that’s not saying Tate never scores - law of averages say Trundle would be the better option in the box. |
Is he asleep yet?
So doesn't the law of averages apply then when we want to get on the ball more, get more possession so we can get up the pitch and cause them trouble?
Because that's the decision Cooper made. Not to try and beat them at their own game. That wouldn't have worked. To try and get in and around them. 75% possession says that it kinda worked that way.
Except, the big elephant in the room, of course, and that's that Cooper has strangled the invention and spontaneity from our players so when we do need a plan B away from 352 our players look like they've stepped out of your head!!
Aciiiiiiiiiid!!! | | | |
| “We need to rotate” on 00:30 - Mar 23 with 709 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| “We need to rotate” on 19:13 - Mar 22 by jack247 |
According to whoscored.com
Matt Grimes 6.97
Conor Hourihane 6.86
Jay Fulton 6.79
Korey Smith 6.48
Kasey Palmer 6.33
No stats for Yan Dhanda.
If you’re going to use a website that thinks Conor has been our second best midfielder this season to validate your opinion, you’re going to have to excuse people who take it with a pinch of salt. |
It’s a website, it doesn’t “think” anything - it’s just data.
It was the site being used in the thread by others. I used the same one to show my point, confident in the fact that whatever the source, it would show what I was saying. I gave the passing stats of both players (Naughton and Cabango) and you said they would be in the vast majority from playing centrally instead of wide - which wasn’t true. It was essentially an even split, the difference of one game in reality.
I’m sure there is the odd anomaly with ratings especially when someone scores in so many games like Hourihane plus hasn’t had that many games to let the averages even out, but I would suggest the majority would be about right in terms of order at least as all are being judged on the same criteria. If you added a caveat of needing to play 20+ to count to avoid short term anomalies then it would probably be very close.
My opinion was validated long before that though, just as a point of order, simply going by the difference in what we lose offensively (not really anything) to what we gain defensively plus the fact the team plays better and is more successful with Cabango. The ratings was an added extra.
Happy to use any other source you like, I’m sure it will show similar. [Post edited 23 Mar 2021 0:52]
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| “We need to rotate” on 00:34 - Mar 23 with 705 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| “We need to rotate” on 21:21 - Mar 22 by 9MilesHigh |
Is he asleep yet?
So doesn't the law of averages apply then when we want to get on the ball more, get more possession so we can get up the pitch and cause them trouble?
Because that's the decision Cooper made. Not to try and beat them at their own game. That wouldn't have worked. To try and get in and around them. 75% possession says that it kinda worked that way.
Except, the big elephant in the room, of course, and that's that Cooper has strangled the invention and spontaneity from our players so when we do need a plan B away from 352 our players look like they've stepped out of your head!!
Aciiiiiiiiiid!!! |
Yes but we have been through that. I don’t believe we play any different with Cabango on the pitch. The difference is minimal, except we have a threat in both boxes.
You seem to be under the impression that if we play Cabango then we turn into a hoofball side, which isn’t accurate.
75% possession says that Cardiff went 1-0 up and sat back. You are again using an anomaly and trying to suggest that is what happens when Naughton plays. Which isn’t the case, otherwise we would see 70% possession every week. Yet it doesn’t seem that often anymore we get anywhere near 55%. Does it?
I’ll have to check. | |
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| “We need to rotate” on 01:27 - Mar 23 with 693 views | Dr_Parnassus |
Numbers done.
When Cabango plays on the right of the three CB’s as a team we average 52.8% of the possession and dominate possession (50.1%+) 66% of the time.
When Naughton plays on the right of the three CB’s as a team we average 47.2% of the possession and dominate possession (50.1%+) 36% of the time.
This was from pre Cardiff stats. If we added Cardiff in then that changes Naughtons stats to an average of 48.2% of team possession and dominating 39% of the time.
........
What you may say is “Naughton has started more recently with Hourihane in the team which unbalanced it”. Which is a fair enough point on the surface.
So taking out games with Hourihane in, they played 11 (BC) and 12 (KN) games each in that position. As a team we averaged 52.8% possession when Cabango played there, hitting 50% or greater possession 63% of the games.
When Naughton has started there as a team we averaged 49.5% possession, hitting 50% or greater possession 41% of the games.
.....
So while you may think that playing Cabango means we turn into a side that doesn’t value possession, like many things, it’s a fear not born out by reality. [Post edited 23 Mar 2021 2:09]
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| “We need to rotate” on 06:11 - Mar 23 with 663 views | jack247 |
| “We need to rotate” on 00:30 - Mar 23 by Dr_Parnassus |
It’s a website, it doesn’t “think” anything - it’s just data.
It was the site being used in the thread by others. I used the same one to show my point, confident in the fact that whatever the source, it would show what I was saying. I gave the passing stats of both players (Naughton and Cabango) and you said they would be in the vast majority from playing centrally instead of wide - which wasn’t true. It was essentially an even split, the difference of one game in reality.
I’m sure there is the odd anomaly with ratings especially when someone scores in so many games like Hourihane plus hasn’t had that many games to let the averages even out, but I would suggest the majority would be about right in terms of order at least as all are being judged on the same criteria. If you added a caveat of needing to play 20+ to count to avoid short term anomalies then it would probably be very close.
My opinion was validated long before that though, just as a point of order, simply going by the difference in what we lose offensively (not really anything) to what we gain defensively plus the fact the team plays better and is more successful with Cabango. The ratings was an added extra.
Happy to use any other source you like, I’m sure it will show similar. [Post edited 23 Mar 2021 0:52]
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It’s also showing that Ben has had a better season than Connor Roberts and that Lowe is one of our worst players.
The best source, is watching the game yourself, watching players on and off the ball, seeing what positions they take up, how confident teammates are to pass to them in tight situations or leave their own position with them covering.
Appreciate this is hard for you remotely and has been for any of us for 12 months. Watch them in the flesh a few times and you’ll appreciate what Kyle brings to the table. You won’t find all the metrics Steve Cooper uses to pick his teams on websites. You won’t get a full picture on tv.
None of this is a knock on Ben, I rate him highly as a central defender. Ryan Bennett as well. He’s a great leader but not dominant in the air. We could have achieved the extra aerial threat in both boxes by sacrificing a bit of organisation and playing Ben, Kyle and Marc. | | | |
| “We need to rotate” on 06:18 - Mar 23 with 662 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| “We need to rotate” on 06:11 - Mar 23 by jack247 |
It’s also showing that Ben has had a better season than Connor Roberts and that Lowe is one of our worst players.
The best source, is watching the game yourself, watching players on and off the ball, seeing what positions they take up, how confident teammates are to pass to them in tight situations or leave their own position with them covering.
Appreciate this is hard for you remotely and has been for any of us for 12 months. Watch them in the flesh a few times and you’ll appreciate what Kyle brings to the table. You won’t find all the metrics Steve Cooper uses to pick his teams on websites. You won’t get a full picture on tv.
None of this is a knock on Ben, I rate him highly as a central defender. Ryan Bennett as well. He’s a great leader but not dominant in the air. We could have achieved the extra aerial threat in both boxes by sacrificing a bit of organisation and playing Ben, Kyle and Marc. |
This source is secondary, remember. Performance rating are subjective and small variances may well occur.
This thread was created after watching the games, the stats site was brought up afterwards by another poster and we have all used it for one thing or another since clicking on the link.
I haven't said I don't appreciate what Kyle brings to the table, not sure where you are getting that from? I said what benefits he brings to the side is vastly outweighed by the negatives of Cabango not playing.
Stats are an extension of what you see. When Cabango plays there we have more of the ball than when Kyle does, we have a greater chance of scoring goals, conceding less and picking up more points - if you come away thinking you didn't see that (which some clearly do) then you are incorrect.
For example after watching the games you were under the impression that the vast majority of times Cabango has started it has been centrally. The stats showed what you thought you saw wasn't quite accurate, it was pretty much the same.
Another poster, after watching the games was under the impression Cabango playing means we have less possession. That also wasn't accurate.
Some stats just aren't subjective at all and a lot of times people see what they want to see and what suits them at the time. In many of these cases, stats are great until they reveal something that goes away from the desired narrative.
Match rating is subjective though, I will grant you that. [Post edited 23 Mar 2021 7:22]
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| “We need to rotate” on 07:53 - Mar 23 with 614 views | 34dfgdf54 |
Just to bare in mind with all these stats about possession.
Norwich Away - Naughton / Bennett
Brentford Home - Naughton / Bennett
Bournemouth Home - Naughton / Cabango
Brentford Home - Naughton / Bennett
Norwich Home - Naughton / Bennett
Brentford Away - Naughton / Bennett
Derby's:
Cardiff Away - Naughton / Bennett
Cardiff Home - Naughton / Bennett
In the games against teams it is widely accepted are better than us, Naughton plays, only game he didn't was Watford @ Home but he was injured. Cooper trusts him in the "big games" over Cabango as a right sided centre half over Cabango.
Edit - not saying we all think Cardiff are better than us, just highlights in the pressure games who Cooper calls on. In the games against better sides, we have less possession. [Post edited 23 Mar 2021 7:55]
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| “We need to rotate” on 07:59 - Mar 23 with 605 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| “We need to rotate” on 07:53 - Mar 23 by 34dfgdf54 |
Just to bare in mind with all these stats about possession.
Norwich Away - Naughton / Bennett
Brentford Home - Naughton / Bennett
Bournemouth Home - Naughton / Cabango
Brentford Home - Naughton / Bennett
Norwich Home - Naughton / Bennett
Brentford Away - Naughton / Bennett
Derby's:
Cardiff Away - Naughton / Bennett
Cardiff Home - Naughton / Bennett
In the games against teams it is widely accepted are better than us, Naughton plays, only game he didn't was Watford @ Home but he was injured. Cooper trusts him in the "big games" over Cabango as a right sided centre half over Cabango.
Edit - not saying we all think Cardiff are better than us, just highlights in the pressure games who Cooper calls on. In the games against better sides, we have less possession. [Post edited 23 Mar 2021 7:55]
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Ill happily do a re-calc based on getting rid of matches against Norwich, Bournemouth, Cardiff and Brentford if you like?
Stand by... [Post edited 23 Mar 2021 8:27]
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| “We need to rotate” on 08:10 - Mar 23 with 602 views | Dr_Parnassus |
Without any of those teams listed, and before Hourihane came into the picture (I can also do one with him included if anyone wants to see it)...
Cabango - 52% team possession. 63% of those games we got 50% or greater possession.
Naughton - 50.5% team possession. 37% of those games we got 50% or greater possession.
So we have helped him out as much as we possibly can now. We have removed matches against the better teams, removed matches with Hourihane in.... Surely we just have to accept it at this point don't we?
Unless someone wants to try something else? points per game? goals conceded per game? scored? We can include Hourihane, exclude him, include top teams, exclude them - Any combination of things I am confident it will all show Cabango is the better player for us in that position. [Post edited 23 Mar 2021 8:28]
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| “We need to rotate” on 08:16 - Mar 23 with 598 views | Dr_Parnassus |
For completion...
Overall stats, thats with Hourihane (yet still without the teams you mentioned)...
Cabango stays put.
Naughton goes down to 48.1% team possession, and goes down to 31% of games with possession stats 50% or higher. | |
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| “We need to rotate” on 09:15 - Mar 23 with 566 views | 34dfgdf54 |
| “We need to rotate” on 08:10 - Mar 23 by Dr_Parnassus |
Without any of those teams listed, and before Hourihane came into the picture (I can also do one with him included if anyone wants to see it)...
Cabango - 52% team possession. 63% of those games we got 50% or greater possession.
Naughton - 50.5% team possession. 37% of those games we got 50% or greater possession.
So we have helped him out as much as we possibly can now. We have removed matches against the better teams, removed matches with Hourihane in.... Surely we just have to accept it at this point don't we?
Unless someone wants to try something else? points per game? goals conceded per game? scored? We can include Hourihane, exclude him, include top teams, exclude them - Any combination of things I am confident it will all show Cabango is the better player for us in that position. [Post edited 23 Mar 2021 8:28]
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I'm not arguing your point, I like Cabango. I'm not really bothered by the stats though it's clear to see he isn't the most comfortable on the ball, an out and out defender and a good one on that.
Fact is though the professional football manager who we weren't allowed to slag off last week thinks different to you and he sees the players in training every day an all that jazz. | | | |
| “We need to rotate” on 09:22 - Mar 23 with 565 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| “We need to rotate” on 09:15 - Mar 23 by 34dfgdf54 |
I'm not arguing your point, I like Cabango. I'm not really bothered by the stats though it's clear to see he isn't the most comfortable on the ball, an out and out defender and a good one on that.
Fact is though the professional football manager who we weren't allowed to slag off last week thinks different to you and he sees the players in training every day an all that jazz. |
I wasn't accusing you of arguing, I was just satisfying your query.
I completely understand that the professional football manager thinks different. That's fine by me, have you heard me slag him off? There is a difference between not agreeing and abuse.
Which is the point I made last week and the point I still stand by today. I would be more than happy to listen to Coopers reasoning. But he would have his work cut out to convince me otherwise. [Post edited 23 Mar 2021 9:23]
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| “We need to rotate” on 09:51 - Mar 23 with 555 views | Thornburyswan |
| “We need to rotate” on 08:10 - Mar 23 by Dr_Parnassus |
Without any of those teams listed, and before Hourihane came into the picture (I can also do one with him included if anyone wants to see it)...
Cabango - 52% team possession. 63% of those games we got 50% or greater possession.
Naughton - 50.5% team possession. 37% of those games we got 50% or greater possession.
So we have helped him out as much as we possibly can now. We have removed matches against the better teams, removed matches with Hourihane in.... Surely we just have to accept it at this point don't we?
Unless someone wants to try something else? points per game? goals conceded per game? scored? We can include Hourihane, exclude him, include top teams, exclude them - Any combination of things I am confident it will all show Cabango is the better player for us in that position. [Post edited 23 Mar 2021 8:28]
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Decently presented debate Dr - a tad pedantic at times but well debated nonetheless.
As we all know there are lies, dam lies & then statistics so keeping that in mind & noting that I, like you, cannot absolutely know Cooper’s thinking for me he uses Nauts ahead of Cabango as the RCB for a number of reasons (particularly in the tougher games):-
1. Nauts overall experience & ability to slot into the RB space if/when we lose the ball & Roberts is caught upfield vs a breakaway.
2. Nauts greater comfort on/with the ball in tight situations.
3. Possibly but acknowledge I’m less convinced on this one better fit with the other 2 CBs & Grimes ahead of them.
All that said I personally would prefer we started Cabango for the remaining games with Guehi (as clearly our best CB) plus one other as he adds physical presence, a threat at set pieces as already proven plus both Nauts & Guehi are both likely to exit come the end of the season so let’s start getting that sorted now. | | | |
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