| Pubs 10:29 - Oct 16 with 13018 views | controversial_jack |
To be shut in Wales for a month from the 26th |  | | |  |
| Pubs on 21:25 - Oct 21 with 899 views | Catullus |
| Pubs on 20:21 - Oct 21 by exhmrc1 |
The reality is that many students will have brought the virus with them from where they live. They have come to live in Halls of Residency or Houses of Multiple Occupancy where they share facilities and it is going to spread there. They travel into Campuses on full buses where they are about 2 foot from the next person. It is going to spread in these places. HSV has 686 rooms at the moment. All are in houses with 7 rooms in each. The 7 students share the kitchen and there are 2 toilets which they share. That in itself is likely to spread the virus without socialising on Wind Street. They go to campus. Yet another chance to spread the virus. They wont spread it in shops. They arent there long enough. Far more likelyhood in halls, lecture theatres or on buses. It was always likely it would spread. To prevent that that happening the cases everywhere needed to be low. That didnt happen because we let the virus in from abroad to spread through pubs and through houses. Can you not see that the cases rose 4 fold between 12 and 26 August after months of decreasing.
It then went up 5 fold between 26 August and 9 September at a time when there no students. This was at the time people were coming back from summer holidays so kids could go back to school. This is the recording date. The actual date of testing is several days earlier.
Between 9 September and 23 September it had again gone up by over double. The testing date for this again would have been before students came. Again it rose by over double so from the 6 weeks from 12 August to 23 September the rate had gone up by nearly 50 times.
From 23 September to 7 October it doubled and from 7 October to 21 October it went by less than 1 and 1/2 times. In the period students have been back it has gone back 3 fold compared to 50 fold before they returned.
This isnt just about student's partying going to Wind Street or whatever. It was always going to spread in the environments in which they live but you really look at what has actually caused this instead of just blaming students.
Do you think it is only students that frequent places like Wind Street. There are no students in Bridgend so who was in that bar. There was photos of bars in St Mary's Street in Cardiff with massive queues before students came. |
The point about Wind street was exactly that it won't just be students down there.
It's not just about blming students either, they are a part of the problem just as pubs, returning tourists and people not obeying the rules are.
Again you make it sound like the virus had gone away because the numbers had dropped. It had neve gone away, it was there, waiting. It was in people who were infectious but asymptomatic, it was in people who showed symptoms but ignored it and carried on (like Rooney's dumb friend) and it was there in people who weren't yet aware because they were still in the incubation period.
They knew we'd have asecond wave, they always said it would happen but instead of putting a long term plan in place to lessen the effects, to protect lives and the economy they went for the flip flopping approach, open up here, lock down there, rinse, repeat. The net outcome is 26000 more people died because of but NOT of covid and now we have more cases than in March.
The NHS has learned from the first wave thankfully and because of things like mask wearing the virus is killing fewer people now but if they don't get a firmer grip on it the NHS will be gridlocked again.
Cases are rising sharply in hospitals, Secondary schools are seeing big rises also.
We never had this beat, we were never on top of it, we'd jut kicked the can further down the road but now the can is bigger and heavier, harder to kick.
The 2 week lockdown isn't enough. We need a longer term plan, in my opinion. I guess we'll see how well it works. | |
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| Pubs on 21:31 - Oct 21 with 888 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Pubs on 21:05 - Oct 21 by Slugster664 |
What a ridiculous post, are you Kilkennyjack in disguise by any chance?! |
Who the feck are you ? 🤷â€â™‚ï¸ |  |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| Pubs on 21:37 - Oct 21 with 886 views | exhmrc1 |
| Pubs on 21:25 - Oct 21 by Catullus |
The point about Wind street was exactly that it won't just be students down there.
It's not just about blming students either, they are a part of the problem just as pubs, returning tourists and people not obeying the rules are.
Again you make it sound like the virus had gone away because the numbers had dropped. It had neve gone away, it was there, waiting. It was in people who were infectious but asymptomatic, it was in people who showed symptoms but ignored it and carried on (like Rooney's dumb friend) and it was there in people who weren't yet aware because they were still in the incubation period.
They knew we'd have asecond wave, they always said it would happen but instead of putting a long term plan in place to lessen the effects, to protect lives and the economy they went for the flip flopping approach, open up here, lock down there, rinse, repeat. The net outcome is 26000 more people died because of but NOT of covid and now we have more cases than in March.
The NHS has learned from the first wave thankfully and because of things like mask wearing the virus is killing fewer people now but if they don't get a firmer grip on it the NHS will be gridlocked again.
Cases are rising sharply in hospitals, Secondary schools are seeing big rises also.
We never had this beat, we were never on top of it, we'd jut kicked the can further down the road but now the can is bigger and heavier, harder to kick.
The 2 week lockdown isn't enough. We need a longer term plan, in my opinion. I guess we'll see how well it works. |
The point of asymptotic cases applied when cases were at the highest, the lowest and now. The lower the cases the less asymptomatic cases there are. The fact is that at its lowest point there were no deaths and very few in hospital. It had largely gone away and had we stuck to it for a period of time would have gone away. The big issue we have in Wales is that even if we got rid of it there is always a risk of cases coming in from higher areas in England. However 5 and 8 cases in a day is fairly clear. It is another world for nearly 400 in April and over a thousand today. The fact is there was very little around in August whereas today there is lots. The reason this rose fits with the facts. It increased at the time people returned from abroad and when pubs opened. You can look at the dates and that is what it shows. It is also backed up by test,traced,protect and people who had come back infected had passed on in houses or pubs. Unless we actually take action against what caused the spike it will come back again after lock down. If we want to solve this we have to do what is needed. Otherwise we will be back in the same position shortly. | | | |
| Pubs on 21:48 - Oct 21 with 877 views | Catullus |
You said " It had largely gone away and had we stuck to it for a period of time would have gone away" and I think that is delusional.
They always said we'd have a second wave and it woukd probably be worse than the first. It had NEVER gone away.
How can anyone know how many asymptomatic cases there are? If I put you in a room with X number of invisible people, could you count them? | |
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| Pubs on 21:56 - Oct 21 with 869 views | Scotia |
| Pubs on 21:48 - Oct 21 by Catullus |
You said " It had largely gone away and had we stuck to it for a period of time would have gone away" and I think that is delusional.
They always said we'd have a second wave and it woukd probably be worse than the first. It had NEVER gone away.
How can anyone know how many asymptomatic cases there are? If I put you in a room with X number of invisible people, could you count them? |
It was absolutely impossible on a small island of 65 million people to eradicate the virus. We are one of the most interconnected economies in the world. We are absolutely nothing like New Zealand.
Both Scotland and Northern Ireland had lower infection levels than Wales and have ended up with higher levels.
Delusional is the correct word. | | | |
| Pubs (n/t) on 22:20 - Oct 21 with 858 views | exhmrc1 |
| Pubs on 21:56 - Oct 21 by Scotia |
It was absolutely impossible on a small island of 65 million people to eradicate the virus. We are one of the most interconnected economies in the world. We are absolutely nothing like New Zealand.
Both Scotland and Northern Ireland had lower infection levels than Wales and have ended up with higher levels.
Delusional is the correct word. |
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| Pubs (n/t) on 22:23 - Oct 21 with 857 views | exhmrc1 |
| Pubs (n/t) on 22:20 - Oct 21 by exhmrc1 |
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Both Scotland and Northern Ireland suffered from the same problem of Johnson opening borders. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland opened pubs before Wales.
We did as you wanted and are now paying the price. You said we could keep the virus under control. Who is delusional. Who got it so wrong. | | | |
| Pubs on 23:01 - Oct 21 with 842 views | controversial_jack |
| Pubs on 20:48 - Oct 21 by Scotia |
There's a massive complex of buildings just off Fabian Way where I suspect most of the cases are. |
Would that be in the NPT area? I would have thought more Crymlyn Burrows or even Port Tennant which would come under Swansea. | | | |
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| Pubs on 23:10 - Oct 21 with 835 views | exhmrc1 |
| Pubs on 23:01 - Oct 21 by controversial_jack |
Would that be in the NPT area? I would have thought more Crymlyn Burrows or even Port Tennant which would come under Swansea. |
It is under Neath Port Talbot s is Crymlyn Burrows. Port Tennant is under Swansea. There is a sign a short way down Fabian Way from the Bay Campus.
Here is a map of Neath Port Talbot boundaries. If you expand the map it will show it better.
https://www.geopunk.co.uk/coun [Post edited 21 Oct 2020 23:20]
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| Pubs on 23:14 - Oct 21 with 830 views | Dr_Winston |
| Pubs on 21:56 - Oct 21 by Scotia |
It was absolutely impossible on a small island of 65 million people to eradicate the virus. We are one of the most interconnected economies in the world. We are absolutely nothing like New Zealand.
Both Scotland and Northern Ireland had lower infection levels than Wales and have ended up with higher levels.
Delusional is the correct word. |
One of the most idiotic trends of the current situation is the comparison of the UK and New Zealand.
One is a sparsely populated island in the middle of nowhere, 5+ hours flight from its nearest neighbour, a nation of 25m people. One is a densely populated island just 30 minutes travel from a potential 450m people. |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Pubs on 23:44 - Oct 21 with 811 views | DJack |
| Pubs on 23:14 - Oct 21 by Dr_Winston |
One of the most idiotic trends of the current situation is the comparison of the UK and New Zealand.
One is a sparsely populated island in the middle of nowhere, 5+ hours flight from its nearest neighbour, a nation of 25m people. One is a densely populated island just 30 minutes travel from a potential 450m people. |
Send me over there and I will investigate it properly for you.  |  |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Pubs on 00:28 - Oct 22 with 803 views | controversial_jack |
| Pubs on 23:14 - Oct 21 by Dr_Winston |
One of the most idiotic trends of the current situation is the comparison of the UK and New Zealand.
One is a sparsely populated island in the middle of nowhere, 5+ hours flight from its nearest neighbour, a nation of 25m people. One is a densely populated island just 30 minutes travel from a potential 450m people. |
They have cities and towns too. Auckland is as large as most British cities.
Admittedly, it's not a travel hub like the Uk, but they locked down and prevented travellers entering, we didn't
They has a death rate 120 times lower than we have, so any differences in Geography or demographics can't be the full reason. | | | |
| Pubs on 00:29 - Oct 22 with 801 views | controversial_jack |
| Pubs on 23:10 - Oct 21 by exhmrc1 |
It is under Neath Port Talbot s is Crymlyn Burrows. Port Tennant is under Swansea. There is a sign a short way down Fabian Way from the Bay Campus.
Here is a map of Neath Port Talbot boundaries. If you expand the map it will show it better.
https://www.geopunk.co.uk/coun [Post edited 21 Oct 2020 23:20]
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Cheers! | | | |
| Pubs on 08:12 - Oct 22 with 780 views | Scotia |
| Pubs on 00:28 - Oct 22 by controversial_jack |
They have cities and towns too. Auckland is as large as most British cities.
Admittedly, it's not a travel hub like the Uk, but they locked down and prevented travellers entering, we didn't
They has a death rate 120 times lower than we have, so any differences in Geography or demographics can't be the full reason. |
The main reason is that they had absolutely nowhere near the level of virus we had when they shut down, and really speaking never would have. They are well connected to China and do a lot of business there, but most strains of Covid in the UK came from France, Spain and Italy where there were probably not far off the population of Auckland holidaying from the UK at the time and before we knew they were virus hotspots.
There are probably more international flights in to Gatwick alone than NZ as a whole.
I think they have a population of 5 million on islands the size of the UK a four flight from Australia, they only really have one big city.
They are also far more active, healthy and have a very outdoors lifestyle.
Ardern did a great job locking down early, but it wouldn't have worked in most other parts of the world. [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 9:13]
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| Pubs on 09:05 - Oct 22 with 771 views | Whiterockin |
| Pubs on 21:37 - Oct 21 by exhmrc1 |
The point of asymptotic cases applied when cases were at the highest, the lowest and now. The lower the cases the less asymptomatic cases there are. The fact is that at its lowest point there were no deaths and very few in hospital. It had largely gone away and had we stuck to it for a period of time would have gone away. The big issue we have in Wales is that even if we got rid of it there is always a risk of cases coming in from higher areas in England. However 5 and 8 cases in a day is fairly clear. It is another world for nearly 400 in April and over a thousand today. The fact is there was very little around in August whereas today there is lots. The reason this rose fits with the facts. It increased at the time people returned from abroad and when pubs opened. You can look at the dates and that is what it shows. It is also backed up by test,traced,protect and people who had come back infected had passed on in houses or pubs. Unless we actually take action against what caused the spike it will come back again after lock down. If we want to solve this we have to do what is needed. Otherwise we will be back in the same position shortly. |
The number of cases in west Wales and the west of England are much lower than other areas of the UK. Are we to presume that the pubs did not open in these areas and nobody returned from a foreign holiday. Do we presume the virus can only travel along motorways and stops at the end of the M4 and M5. Do we also presume that the millions of people who holidayed in these areas from the highly infected areas of England left the virus at home when they went on holiday. Or do we accept the probability that the major factor of the virus transferring throughout the UK is students, whether it be in pubs or not.
I await the normal drivel from the taxman, pulling up stats to support his "opinions" while ignoring what the rest of us see and understand. |  | | |
| Pubs on 09:44 - Oct 22 with 755 views | controversial_jack |
| Pubs on 08:12 - Oct 22 by Scotia |
The main reason is that they had absolutely nowhere near the level of virus we had when they shut down, and really speaking never would have. They are well connected to China and do a lot of business there, but most strains of Covid in the UK came from France, Spain and Italy where there were probably not far off the population of Auckland holidaying from the UK at the time and before we knew they were virus hotspots.
There are probably more international flights in to Gatwick alone than NZ as a whole.
I think they have a population of 5 million on islands the size of the UK a four flight from Australia, they only really have one big city.
They are also far more active, healthy and have a very outdoors lifestyle.
Ardern did a great job locking down early, but it wouldn't have worked in most other parts of the world. [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 9:13]
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The same approach worked in many Countries, particularly in Asia, and well connected ones too. It worked in the Czech republic until they became complacent. | | | |
| Pubs on 10:02 - Oct 22 with 748 views | Scotia |
| Pubs on 09:44 - Oct 22 by controversial_jack |
The same approach worked in many Countries, particularly in Asia, and well connected ones too. It worked in the Czech republic until they became complacent. |
But not as well connected to virus hotspots, and that probably includes the Czech republic. The virus in China was largely restricted to Hubei. | | | |
| Pubs on 10:08 - Oct 22 with 746 views | exhmrc1 |
| Pubs on 09:05 - Oct 22 by Whiterockin |
The number of cases in west Wales and the west of England are much lower than other areas of the UK. Are we to presume that the pubs did not open in these areas and nobody returned from a foreign holiday. Do we presume the virus can only travel along motorways and stops at the end of the M4 and M5. Do we also presume that the millions of people who holidayed in these areas from the highly infected areas of England left the virus at home when they went on holiday. Or do we accept the probability that the major factor of the virus transferring throughout the UK is students, whether it be in pubs or not.
I await the normal drivel from the taxman, pulling up stats to support his "opinions" while ignoring what the rest of us see and understand. |
There are 600 students infected in Cardiff and under 200 in Swansea ie the 2 biggest universities. If you add a 100 each for Bangor and Aberystwyth that will give you a thousand although the figure is actually lower there. In the last 4 days alone there has been over 2500 cases in Wales. These figures for universities go back to 21 September although according to you there were cases before. The figures from students are a small part of the number of positive cases in Wales. In the month of October there has been over 14000 new cases in Wales. Even if each university had close on a 1000 each it would be close on half the amount of cases in Wales. Large areas of Wales dont have students yet they still have cases. What university is near Merthyr Tydfil, Bridgend, Blaenau Gwent, Conwy and Torfaen. The vast majority of places in Neath Port Talbot dont have students living there. You wont get many students in places like Pontardawe, Bryncoch, Glynneath Crynant, Blaengwynfi or Cwmafan yet all have cases. It is too far for students to travel and they tend to stay closer to the university and city centre for nightlife. That is why so many are in Brynmill and Uplands. It isnt drivel. It is factual. Shame you cant work on facts rather than myth and hearsay. | | | |
| Pubs on 10:14 - Oct 22 with 743 views | onehunglow |
Auckland is bigger than any city in the UK outside London.
Maybe,the Kiwis are more sensible,and certainly united as a nation that sees them behave as they have in this pandemic.
Little ,if any political infighting,no Corbyns,Burnhams to worry about.
No demos against wearing masks,and social distancing not seen as infringement of human rights.And this under a "Labour " Government.
Our Labour party needs to look at how they work for the country ALL of the people,not just labour voters. It s also the case the opposition in NZ isnt refered to as "scum".
Hell,they might not have class war. | |
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| Pubs on 10:43 - Oct 22 with 734 views | Whiterockin |
| Pubs on 10:08 - Oct 22 by exhmrc1 |
There are 600 students infected in Cardiff and under 200 in Swansea ie the 2 biggest universities. If you add a 100 each for Bangor and Aberystwyth that will give you a thousand although the figure is actually lower there. In the last 4 days alone there has been over 2500 cases in Wales. These figures for universities go back to 21 September although according to you there were cases before. The figures from students are a small part of the number of positive cases in Wales. In the month of October there has been over 14000 new cases in Wales. Even if each university had close on a 1000 each it would be close on half the amount of cases in Wales. Large areas of Wales dont have students yet they still have cases. What university is near Merthyr Tydfil, Bridgend, Blaenau Gwent, Conwy and Torfaen. The vast majority of places in Neath Port Talbot dont have students living there. You wont get many students in places like Pontardawe, Bryncoch, Glynneath Crynant, Blaengwynfi or Cwmafan yet all have cases. It is too far for students to travel and they tend to stay closer to the university and city centre for nightlife. That is why so many are in Brynmill and Uplands. It isnt drivel. It is factual. Shame you cant work on facts rather than myth and hearsay. |
But how many have those students infected, nobody knows as there are no statistics. People from areas without student accommodation travel into areas with student accommodation to work, many in the universities. Its a shame you can't answer regarding West Wales and the West of England. | | | |
| Pubs on 11:01 - Oct 22 with 729 views | controversial_jack |
| Pubs on 10:02 - Oct 22 by Scotia |
But not as well connected to virus hotspots, and that probably includes the Czech republic. The virus in China was largely restricted to Hubei. |
If you close your borders you are not connected to anyone. which is the point , and is what the Kiwis and Czechs did and we didn't. | | | |
| Pubs on 11:14 - Oct 22 with 722 views | Scotia |
| Pubs on 11:01 - Oct 22 by controversial_jack |
If you close your borders you are not connected to anyone. which is the point , and is what the Kiwis and Czechs did and we didn't. |
We couldn't really because it was Brits coming home from those countries that was the problem. Perhaps we could have quarantined all Brits returning home from anywhere and their close contacts but that would have been a massive undertaking. Really that's what we'd have to do.
By the time we knew about the European outbreaks it was too late and probably spreading in the community here already.
If we'd followed the German test and trace example then we'd be in with a shout of controlling it, but it wasn't taken seriously. Boris even missed the first five Cobra meetings. | | | |
| Pubs on 11:26 - Oct 22 with 717 views | controversial_jack |
| Pubs on 11:14 - Oct 22 by Scotia |
We couldn't really because it was Brits coming home from those countries that was the problem. Perhaps we could have quarantined all Brits returning home from anywhere and their close contacts but that would have been a massive undertaking. Really that's what we'd have to do.
By the time we knew about the European outbreaks it was too late and probably spreading in the community here already.
If we'd followed the German test and trace example then we'd be in with a shout of controlling it, but it wasn't taken seriously. Boris even missed the first five Cobra meetings. |
Thousands were coming here everyday with no quarantining. Many were just strolling through the checks and just getting on trains busses etc
We had plenty of time, we knew this was spreading in february. | | | |
| Pubs on 12:22 - Oct 22 with 704 views | Scotia |
| Pubs on 11:26 - Oct 22 by controversial_jack |
Thousands were coming here everyday with no quarantining. Many were just strolling through the checks and just getting on trains busses etc
We had plenty of time, we knew this was spreading in february. |
But we didn't know it was spreading in Italy, Spain and France until March. It was almost certainly here too.
It was probably in the 10's of thousands, which wouldn't be the case in many countries and definitely not NZ. | | | |
| Pubs on 12:40 - Oct 22 with 701 views | exhmrc1 |
| Pubs on 10:43 - Oct 22 by Whiterockin |
But how many have those students infected, nobody knows as there are no statistics. People from areas without student accommodation travel into areas with student accommodation to work, many in the universities. Its a shame you can't answer regarding West Wales and the West of England. |
What we do know is that the figures are increasing everywhere in Wales including West Wales. It started increasing in August and has continued since. Pembrokeshire is current 50.1 per 100,000 over the last 7 days and no students there. This is above the figure being used for local lockdowns. Carmarthenshire is 68.3 and Vale of Glamorgan 51.7. The only 2 counties below 50 are Powys with 48.3 which is higher than Neath Port Talbot was when it was placed in local lockdown and Ceredigion with 27.5. Compare this with 2 months ago when the average Welsh Figure was 3.2 and most were well below that.
Without going into the South West figures i attach an article
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/
As far as students some will travel in to every university but those will live in the communities. The vast majority of students live close to the university and city. That is why places like Brynmill and Uplands have huge numbers of students and Pontardawe and Dunvant very few. I have lived in both Dunvant and Pontardawe areas so know them well and used to pass through Sketty and Uplands on the way to work.
There are no statistics on students but it is well known that most of the students in Swansea live within a couple of mile radius of the city centre. If you speak to them that is what you will find. It is the same in Cardiff where Roath, Cathays and Penylan are full of students but areas like Lisvane, Llanishen and Thornhill have very few. Similarly in Exeter nearly all students lived within a 2 mile distance of the university campuses and city centre. My son was at Exeter and the vast majority walked to university and lived in the Pinhoe Road, City Centre or St Davids areas.
It is absolutely clear that students are not the main reason for new cases increasing. It started before they came and has continued after. They are part of a wider problem but certainly not the main cause. | | | |
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