| Home Rule 10:49 - Feb 28 with 18876 views | Catullus |
Drakeford wants it, devo max, go Federal, whatever you want to call it. His speech said a lot but was very light on detail. It was full of optimistic generalisations without saying much at all.
It is obvious now why the Labour party wanted to give the vote to 16/17 year olds, they are targettting them at the next election with this home rule demand because they know young people are more likley to support it, or independence.
This change in the voting laws was nothing to do with democracy and everything to do with tilting the vote in their favour but maybe it'll backfire and those youngsters will vote Plaid?
That aside, whn will we hear details? When will Drakeford give us the opportunity to weight up his plans?
He has also said more than once he won't serve a full term if he wins, that most likely means we'll have Gething foisted on us...from frying pan into the fire then. Can we vote for a party when we know the leader isn't interested in doing the term? Certainly people didn't like it when we had Bojo foisted on us, plenty said we didn'tvote for him and said it wasn't democratic. |  |
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| Home Rule on 15:45 - Mar 8 with 1068 views | Scotia |
| Home Rule on 15:25 - Mar 8 by exhmrc1 |
You are talking about ONS statistics. These are based on what is on the death certificate. They HAVE NOT necessarily had a POSITIVE test so it is GUESSWORK. There was a thread on here bu Brit Ferry of a case where someone in a care home had 3 negative tests yet covid was put on the Death certificate. How many more. I prefer to base the figures on actual positive tests where you know somebody actually has had covid rather than a guess where there has been no positive proof. Incidentally so do ALL the governments of the UK and as I understand it other places in the world.
If you look at the article below you will see under the section how many people have died with covid in Wales that the figures refer to Deaths with covid confirmed or SUSPECTED. In other words guesswork. You will also see the figures I use include Deaths with a POSITIVE TEST. These have proven to be COVID. You will also see your system actually has over 2000 more Deaths than the excess Deaths in previous years. The ONS figures are only as good as the information provided and it is clear that many deaths are shown as COVID that arent because of covid. Britferry's threat explained that.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-
[Post edited 8 Mar 2021 15:26]
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The figure that you are mentioning is deaths FOR ANY REASON within 28 days of a positive test.
Some of those will not have died of covid, they may have been at the very end of their life anyway. Or potentially run over by a bus.
A Dr's opinion which is on a death certificate is not guesswork, it's professional opinion. How do you think they got through medical school? By guessing?
There will be errors, but not many.
Regardless of what stats are used far too many people have died in Wales. That is all that matters. | | | |
| Home Rule on 16:07 - Mar 8 with 1047 views | Catullus |
| Home Rule on 15:25 - Mar 8 by exhmrc1 |
You are talking about ONS statistics. These are based on what is on the death certificate. They HAVE NOT necessarily had a POSITIVE test so it is GUESSWORK. There was a thread on here bu Brit Ferry of a case where someone in a care home had 3 negative tests yet covid was put on the Death certificate. How many more. I prefer to base the figures on actual positive tests where you know somebody actually has had covid rather than a guess where there has been no positive proof. Incidentally so do ALL the governments of the UK and as I understand it other places in the world.
If you look at the article below you will see under the section how many people have died with covid in Wales that the figures refer to Deaths with covid confirmed or SUSPECTED. In other words guesswork. You will also see the figures I use include Deaths with a POSITIVE TEST. These have proven to be COVID. You will also see your system actually has over 2000 more Deaths than the excess Deaths in previous years. The ONS figures are only as good as the information provided and it is clear that many deaths are shown as COVID that arent because of covid. Britferry's threat explained that.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-
[Post edited 8 Mar 2021 15:26]
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It says on there "deaths with covid confirmed or suspected but doesn't break it down into definitely confirmed OR suspected. Regardless of how you choose to interpret it there are definitely more covid deaths in Wales than the figure they put out on the news.
The stat reads Deaths with confirmed or suspected covid - 7,458. If you want accuracy then ask the Senedd why they are not insisting on the certificate being accurat and saying confirmed OR suspected. If they did that they couldn't fudge the figures.
The excess deaths number is how many more people have died than expected, it's not the same thing. | |
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| Home Rule on 17:01 - Mar 8 with 1024 views | exhmrc1 |
| Home Rule on 16:07 - Mar 8 by Catullus |
It says on there "deaths with covid confirmed or suspected but doesn't break it down into definitely confirmed OR suspected. Regardless of how you choose to interpret it there are definitely more covid deaths in Wales than the figure they put out on the news.
The stat reads Deaths with confirmed or suspected covid - 7,458. If you want accuracy then ask the Senedd why they are not insisting on the certificate being accurat and saying confirmed OR suspected. If they did that they couldn't fudge the figures.
The excess deaths number is how many more people have died than expected, it's not the same thing. |
The Senydd and other UK governments dont use the ONS figures. They use the figures from gov.uk. See todays figures for the UK just released
4,223,232
+9,889
Deaths
124,566 | | | |
| Home Rule on 18:08 - Mar 8 with 1011 views | Catullus |
| Home Rule on 17:01 - Mar 8 by exhmrc1 |
The Senydd and other UK governments dont use the ONS figures. They use the figures from gov.uk. See todays figures for the UK just released
4,223,232
+9,889
Deaths
124,566 |
I'm not arguing that. I'm saying more people have died of covid in Wales than we are told on the news.
If they are telling lies in England too that's not my problem. | |
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| Home Rule on 18:46 - Mar 8 with 997 views | exhmrc1 |
| Home Rule on 18:08 - Mar 8 by Catullus |
I'm not arguing that. I'm saying more people have died of covid in Wales than we are told on the news.
If they are telling lies in England too that's not my problem. |
You can use that argument if you want but there probably arent that many more. The official figures include all covid deaths with 28 days of a positive test in a hospital or care home setting. That is nearly all deaths. There will be a few at home but it is very few comparatively. The figures for where Deaths occur on the article show less than 500 deaths outside of care homes and hospitals and that is based on your ONS figures so it works out about 7%. Many of the deaths from the ONS relate to periods after 28 days. The general feeling is deaths from covid occur within 3 weeks as covid doesnt lat that long. That is why the official figures are restricted to 28 days. Many of the ONS deaths relate to people who had covid months earlier. The PHW figure along with the excess deaths are the more accurate figure.
As can be seen from the article even the ONS dont believe the figures are accurate. It also shows that doctors list things on the death certificate that contribute but not actually the cause of death.
Are deaths really 'due to' Covid-19?
The ONS analysis finds that Covid-19 was the underlying cause of death in 89.9% of cases, where Covid was mentioned on the death certificate.
A doctor's duties include certifying deaths, and this can include any cause in a chain of events leading up to them, including pre-existing conditions and whatever medically makes a contribution. | | | |
| Home Rule on 10:52 - Mar 9 with 956 views | Catullus |
| Home Rule on 18:46 - Mar 8 by exhmrc1 |
You can use that argument if you want but there probably arent that many more. The official figures include all covid deaths with 28 days of a positive test in a hospital or care home setting. That is nearly all deaths. There will be a few at home but it is very few comparatively. The figures for where Deaths occur on the article show less than 500 deaths outside of care homes and hospitals and that is based on your ONS figures so it works out about 7%. Many of the deaths from the ONS relate to periods after 28 days. The general feeling is deaths from covid occur within 3 weeks as covid doesnt lat that long. That is why the official figures are restricted to 28 days. Many of the ONS deaths relate to people who had covid months earlier. The PHW figure along with the excess deaths are the more accurate figure.
As can be seen from the article even the ONS dont believe the figures are accurate. It also shows that doctors list things on the death certificate that contribute but not actually the cause of death.
Are deaths really 'due to' Covid-19?
The ONS analysis finds that Covid-19 was the underlying cause of death in 89.9% of cases, where Covid was mentioned on the death certificate.
A doctor's duties include certifying deaths, and this can include any cause in a chain of events leading up to them, including pre-existing conditions and whatever medically makes a contribution. |
So you're guessing now but that's alowed under your rules is it? You say "probably" and you used one case to deny many "at home" covid deaths well how about Julianne Cadby,
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/
AN NHS worker and our friend, she died at home, from Covid, she'd had a positive test. I take your ONE case and raise it with Thomas Davies, aged 27, Tim Galley aged 47, Sylvia Harthen 73, all died at home. | |
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| Home Rule on 15:06 - Mar 9 with 921 views | Whiterockin |
| Home Rule on 18:08 - Mar 8 by Catullus |
I'm not arguing that. I'm saying more people have died of covid in Wales than we are told on the news.
If they are telling lies in England too that's not my problem. |
When looking across the course of the pandemic so far, there have been 38,080 from all causes, 7,546 mentioning Covid-19 on the death certificate. This was 5,447 deaths above the five-year average.
When deaths occurring up to 26 February but counting later registrations are included, the total number of deaths involving Covid rises to 7,592.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-
But Wales are reporting 5,406 deaths.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk- |  | | |
| Home Rule on 16:26 - Mar 9 with 897 views | exhmrc1 |
The figures are showing that there has been 5411 more deaths than the average of the last 5 years. PHW death rates show 5403 deaths. A difference of 8 yet the the ONS figures show 7458. Which is closer to the likely figure. There hasnt been that many deaths at home. Does anyone seriously believe there has been more deaths at home than in care homes given the well publicised problems in those. Why do you think care homes were the top group for vaccinations. Based on the ONS figures there have been 1604 deaths in care homes. | | | |
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| Home Rule on 16:31 - Mar 9 with 892 views | trampie |
Do we still have flu ? |  |
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| Home Rule on 16:54 - Mar 9 with 880 views | exhmrc1 |
| Home Rule on 16:31 - Mar 9 by trampie |
Do we still have flu ? |
Very little but flu kills relatively few people as the most at risk are vaccinated annually. It account for 10s of deaths not 2000 | | | |
| Home Rule on 18:14 - Mar 9 with 861 views | Catullus |
| Home Rule on 16:26 - Mar 9 by exhmrc1 |
The figures are showing that there has been 5411 more deaths than the average of the last 5 years. PHW death rates show 5403 deaths. A difference of 8 yet the the ONS figures show 7458. Which is closer to the likely figure. There hasnt been that many deaths at home. Does anyone seriously believe there has been more deaths at home than in care homes given the well publicised problems in those. Why do you think care homes were the top group for vaccinations. Based on the ONS figures there have been 1604 deaths in care homes. |
How many people are in care homes compared to elderly people AND people with health conditions living at home? Did you not notice the ages of the people who died at home in my last post, 27, 49.....
There are 23000 care home places in Wales as against hundreds of thousands of very elderly people and people with health conditions living at home.
You are just being ridiculous.
I thought you didn't trust ONS figures, not until it suits you I guess.
PS< your numbers aren't accurate,
https://statswales.gov.wales/C
Are you guessing? [Post edited 9 Mar 2021 18:18]
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| Home Rule on 18:37 - Mar 9 with 857 views | exhmrc1 |
| Home Rule on 18:14 - Mar 9 by Catullus |
How many people are in care homes compared to elderly people AND people with health conditions living at home? Did you not notice the ages of the people who died at home in my last post, 27, 49.....
There are 23000 care home places in Wales as against hundreds of thousands of very elderly people and people with health conditions living at home.
You are just being ridiculous.
I thought you didn't trust ONS figures, not until it suits you I guess.
PS< your numbers aren't accurate,
https://statswales.gov.wales/C
Are you guessing? [Post edited 9 Mar 2021 18:18]
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You have used the ONS figures. I havent. However the figures you used show that there was 5424 deaths in hospitals, 1627 in care homes and 386 in private homes. All are likely to be inflated due to the use of suspected cases. Even if I accept all in private homes were actually covid cases that would still only add 386 to the cases to the 5406 positive tests death so it would still be below the 7592 cases you are looking at. An extra quarter or more cases above those who died with positive tests.
The figure of excess deaths largely agrees with the PHW figures. Slightly more cases due to those who die at home and will possibly be slightly lower due to less deaths from flu which isnt a huge amount every year.
You prefer to accept figures that look closer to what you want rather than 2 separate sets of figures both giving very close results. A set of figures that includes deaths where it hasnt been proven someone even had covid and also used deaths months after having covid. The use of positive tests within 28 days is used by all UK governments because they give truer figures. The general view is that nearly all covid deaths occur within 3 weeks of a positive test. Those deaths happening 6 months on are not because of covid even though covid will be shown on death certificates. | | | |
| Home Rule on 20:25 - Mar 9 with 846 views | Catullus |
| Home Rule on 16:54 - Mar 9 by exhmrc1 |
Very little but flu kills relatively few people as the most at risk are vaccinated annually. It account for 10s of deaths not 2000 |
Tens of deaths, not 2000?
The stats show we'll usually have hundreds of deaths from flu, usually over 400.
https://www.greenwichccg.nhs.u | |
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| Home Rule on 20:39 - Mar 9 with 843 views | Catullus |
| Home Rule on 18:37 - Mar 9 by exhmrc1 |
You have used the ONS figures. I havent. However the figures you used show that there was 5424 deaths in hospitals, 1627 in care homes and 386 in private homes. All are likely to be inflated due to the use of suspected cases. Even if I accept all in private homes were actually covid cases that would still only add 386 to the cases to the 5406 positive tests death so it would still be below the 7592 cases you are looking at. An extra quarter or more cases above those who died with positive tests.
The figure of excess deaths largely agrees with the PHW figures. Slightly more cases due to those who die at home and will possibly be slightly lower due to less deaths from flu which isnt a huge amount every year.
You prefer to accept figures that look closer to what you want rather than 2 separate sets of figures both giving very close results. A set of figures that includes deaths where it hasnt been proven someone even had covid and also used deaths months after having covid. The use of positive tests within 28 days is used by all UK governments because they give truer figures. The general view is that nearly all covid deaths occur within 3 weeks of a positive test. Those deaths happening 6 months on are not because of covid even though covid will be shown on death certificates. |
You didn't say this then, and I quote " Based on the ONS figures there have been 1604 deaths in care homes"
Silly me to think when you said ONS figures you meant ONS figures.
There are nearly 7500 death certificates that mention covid. Because of poor data collection there is a big discrepancy in covid deaths and official numbers .
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/ | |
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| Home Rule on 20:57 - Mar 9 with 839 views | exhmrc1 |
| Home Rule on 20:39 - Mar 9 by Catullus |
You didn't say this then, and I quote " Based on the ONS figures there have been 1604 deaths in care homes"
Silly me to think when you said ONS figures you meant ONS figures.
There are nearly 7500 death certificates that mention covid. Because of poor data collection there is a big discrepancy in covid deaths and official numbers .
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/ |
exactly you quoted the ONS figures. I dont agree with them and I would have thought it pretty clear to anyone that I believe the PHW fIgures are more accurate. The PHW figures include POSITIVE tests from Hospitals and Care Homes. The ONS use POSITIVE and SUSPECTED deaths from Hospitals, Care Homes and at home. It is clear that the SUSPECTED deaths make up nearly 1/3 of the ONS fIgures in Wales. It is highly likely that 1/3 of home tests dont have a positive test so the actual home deaths are likely to be closer to 200 but just to show how much nonsense you are talking I have let you have your ONS figure of home deaths.
The reality is that the ONS has more than 2000 more covid deaths than the excess deaths. This is usually considered the most accurate reflection and is very close to the PHW figures. Each year will fluctuate slightly but not to the degree you want. The figures will be slightly lower this year as there has been very few Flu deaths but then there isnt that many every year. Nowhere near the amounts included in your figures which are clearly excessive and for the reasons already provided. The Excess deaths includes all deaths from all settings.
You can believe whatever nonsense you want to. It has been absolutely clear from all your postings that anything you can find to try and make the Welsh Government look bad you will and will dispute whatever Mark Drakeford does.
However even if you dont believe the PHW and other governments figures the excess deaths dont lie and show there are far less deaths than you think. [Post edited 9 Mar 2021 21:00]
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| Home Rule on 21:31 - Mar 9 with 813 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Home Rule on 20:57 - Mar 9 by exhmrc1 |
exactly you quoted the ONS figures. I dont agree with them and I would have thought it pretty clear to anyone that I believe the PHW fIgures are more accurate. The PHW figures include POSITIVE tests from Hospitals and Care Homes. The ONS use POSITIVE and SUSPECTED deaths from Hospitals, Care Homes and at home. It is clear that the SUSPECTED deaths make up nearly 1/3 of the ONS fIgures in Wales. It is highly likely that 1/3 of home tests dont have a positive test so the actual home deaths are likely to be closer to 200 but just to show how much nonsense you are talking I have let you have your ONS figure of home deaths.
The reality is that the ONS has more than 2000 more covid deaths than the excess deaths. This is usually considered the most accurate reflection and is very close to the PHW figures. Each year will fluctuate slightly but not to the degree you want. The figures will be slightly lower this year as there has been very few Flu deaths but then there isnt that many every year. Nowhere near the amounts included in your figures which are clearly excessive and for the reasons already provided. The Excess deaths includes all deaths from all settings.
You can believe whatever nonsense you want to. It has been absolutely clear from all your postings that anything you can find to try and make the Welsh Government look bad you will and will dispute whatever Mark Drakeford does.
However even if you dont believe the PHW and other governments figures the excess deaths dont lie and show there are far less deaths than you think. [Post edited 9 Mar 2021 21:00]
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PHW figure are deaths reported to them mainly from hospitals and some care homes.
The ONS figures are from all deaths based on deaths certificates which include coronavirus on the deaths certificate.
It includes all hospital deaths, all care homes, all hospice deaths and all deaths at home.
This is why the ONS figure for wskrs is 39% higher than the PHW figure.
PHW deaths 5406
ONS Deaths 7521
The ONS figure for England is 15% higher than the PHE figure.
Clearly Wales and England have different methods for collecting data which one is more accurate is hard to say. | |
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| Home Rule on 21:34 - Mar 9 with 812 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Home Rule on 17:01 - Mar 8 by exhmrc1 |
The Senydd and other UK governments dont use the ONS figures. They use the figures from gov.uk. See todays figures for the UK just released
4,223,232
+9,889
Deaths
124,566 |
Not true both figures are published on the UK government coronavirus website site. It is just that the BBC prefer to use the 28 days figures . [Post edited 10 Mar 2021 11:32]
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| Home Rule on 10:43 - Mar 10 with 771 views | Scotia |
I think an argument over who uses what figures, for what purpose and whether they are the correct ones or not is largely irrelevant. Provided those figures are accurate.
Neither set of figures are infallible, but the figure that leaves less ambiguity with regard to covid is the "death certificate" figure. That is the result of professional opinion and not "for any reason" as is stated. Anyway, in this thread it is a moot point.
The only fact that matters when considering if Drakeford or his successor should be given more powers is that, whichever figure is used, far too many Welsh people have died. especially when compared to other similar nations.
That's not good enough and it is time for a change. | | | |
| Home Rule on 11:32 - Mar 10 with 759 views | exhmrc1 |
| Home Rule on 10:43 - Mar 10 by Scotia |
I think an argument over who uses what figures, for what purpose and whether they are the correct ones or not is largely irrelevant. Provided those figures are accurate.
Neither set of figures are infallible, but the figure that leaves less ambiguity with regard to covid is the "death certificate" figure. That is the result of professional opinion and not "for any reason" as is stated. Anyway, in this thread it is a moot point.
The only fact that matters when considering if Drakeford or his successor should be given more powers is that, whichever figure is used, far too many Welsh people have died. especially when compared to other similar nations.
That's not good enough and it is time for a change. |
The excess Deaths figure is clearly the most accurate. Deaths from various sources like cancer and heart disease will be included in previous years and back years. The only real change pre and post virus is there are more cases because of covid and slightly less cases because of flu. The fact the ONS figures show roughly 30% more deaths than the excess should be raising alarm bells. The PHW figures largely align with the excess deaths. There is a small difference due to home deaths not being included in the PHW figures. Any system that uses suspected deaths over cases where the has been positive tests really shouldnt be said to be more accurate. The ONS figures include deaths in hospices. People in hospices are usually nearing end of life for terminal illnesses. How many of those was coronavirus the main reason for the death or the illness they were suffering. | | | |
| Home Rule on 11:54 - Mar 10 with 757 views | Scotia |
https://metro.co.uk/2021/03/10
This is a bigger concern than which figures are used for what. We are very lucky it didn't become the dominant strain in Wales until well in to 2021. | | | |
| Home Rule on 11:55 - Mar 10 with 747 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Home Rule on 11:32 - Mar 10 by exhmrc1 |
The excess Deaths figure is clearly the most accurate. Deaths from various sources like cancer and heart disease will be included in previous years and back years. The only real change pre and post virus is there are more cases because of covid and slightly less cases because of flu. The fact the ONS figures show roughly 30% more deaths than the excess should be raising alarm bells. The PHW figures largely align with the excess deaths. There is a small difference due to home deaths not being included in the PHW figures. Any system that uses suspected deaths over cases where the has been positive tests really shouldnt be said to be more accurate. The ONS figures include deaths in hospices. People in hospices are usually nearing end of life for terminal illnesses. How many of those was coronavirus the main reason for the death or the illness they were suffering. |
The day figures has too many holes in it and exceptions to be regarded as accurate.
Get run over by a bus, die of a heart attack or stroke or just old with 28 days of a positive tests and it goes down as a coronavirus death.
Test positive for coronavirus viruse spend many weeks in hospital before passing away five weeks after the tests and you are not included. | |
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| Home Rule on 12:49 - Mar 10 with 731 views | exhmrc1 |
| Home Rule on 11:54 - Mar 10 by Scotia |
https://metro.co.uk/2021/03/10
This is a bigger concern than which figures are used for what. We are very lucky it didn't become the dominant strain in Wales until well in to 2021. |
Again you miss the fact that the Kent virus was believed to be the reason for the increase in November. It was discovered in December but the belief was it was actually here earlier similar to what happened in England. There was an article I previously posted here that on 13 December that the virus had been found in 57 authorities of which 6 were in Wales 6 in Scotland and 45 in England ie a higher percentage in Wales than in England. | | | |
| Home Rule on 13:18 - Mar 10 with 717 views | exhmrc1 |
Here is an article from the Mail which doesnt support the argument that England's figures in December were higher due to the Kent variant.
The Kent strain of coronavirus does not cause different symptoms or a more severe Covid-19 illness than earlier variants, experts have claimed.
King's College London researchers say they found 'no significant difference' in disease suffered between regions where the variant was widespread in December — London, South East and East of England — compared to those further north, where it was yet to gain a foothold. | | | |
| Home Rule on 13:26 - Mar 10 with 718 views | Scotia |
| Home Rule on 12:49 - Mar 10 by exhmrc1 |
Again you miss the fact that the Kent virus was believed to be the reason for the increase in November. It was discovered in December but the belief was it was actually here earlier similar to what happened in England. There was an article I previously posted here that on 13 December that the virus had been found in 57 authorities of which 6 were in Wales 6 in Scotland and 45 in England ie a higher percentage in Wales than in England. |
This should help you, it is the dictionary definition of dominant:-
more important, strong, or noticeable than anything else of the same type.
I haven't missed the fact - you don't understand it.
The fact of it being here does not mean it was dominant (see above for definition), there were isolated outbreaks in early December as Gething just confirmed, the percentage of local authorities it was present in is completely and utterly irrelevant.
Don't you understand that isolated cases in places like Wrexham, Bridgend, Swansea, Pembs, Carms and Gwynedd is far less dangerous than a significant outbreak in Londodn?
In early December it made up approximately 70 - 80% of infections in SE England. In SE England it was dominant (see above for definition). It didn't become the dominant variety in Wales until a few weeks in to 2021 by which time it was dominant throughout the UK. Luckily we were in lockdown by that point. | | | |
| Home Rule on 13:30 - Mar 10 with 717 views | Scotia |
| Home Rule on 13:18 - Mar 10 by exhmrc1 |
Here is an article from the Mail which doesnt support the argument that England's figures in December were higher due to the Kent variant.
The Kent strain of coronavirus does not cause different symptoms or a more severe Covid-19 illness than earlier variants, experts have claimed.
King's College London researchers say they found 'no significant difference' in disease suffered between regions where the variant was widespread in December — London, South East and East of England — compared to those further north, where it was yet to gain a foothold. |
Errr.
That isn't what that says, it relates to disease severity not the variant distribution - in fact it confirms the variant was widespread in SE England but not elsewhere?
The last paragraph gives it away. Look:-
King's College London researchers say they found 'no significant difference' in disease suffered between regions where the variant was widespread in December — London, South East and East of England — compared to those further north, where it was yet to gain a foothold.
Stop banging on about this. You are clearly wrong. Move on. | | | |
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