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Good Luck UK 12:13 - Dec 12 with 58241 views

For the Eze, not the Pugh!

#votewarburton

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Good Luck UK on 13:30 - Dec 17 with 2029 views

BazzaInTheLoft

Good Luck UK on 12:46 - Dec 17 by Konk

Yep. Which returned four Labour MPs. It's one of the most affluent cities in the country and has an abundance of students, academics, public sector workers and boho types. It was also a big remain city unless you count the white working class estates on the outskirts which voted to leave. Pretty confident that Labour in Bristol rely on middle-class votes more than working class votes these days. Chatting with neighbours at a kids birthday party the other day, we had a Labour activist amongst us who was out leafletting and even she wasn't sure she was voting Labour this time!

Below are the Bristol results for the European elections. The Greens performance possibly gives an indication of how unhappy a lot of Labour supporters in Bristol were about Corbyn, but in the GE, lots of us backed our incumbent Labour MP or couldn't countenance not voting Labour, however great our doubts.

Green: 35.1 per cent (49,126 votes)
Liberal Democrats: 22.5 per cent (31,510)
Brexit Party: 18.6 per cent (26,071)
Labour: 13.9 per cent (19,431)
Conservatives: 4.7 per cent (6,623)
Change UK: 2.3 per cent (3,258)
UKIP: 2.3 per cent (3,196 votes)

[Post edited 17 Dec 2019 12:55]

Glad you saw my point coming.

1) Labour typically finish 2nd / 3rd / 4th overall in EU elections even under Blair.
2) Liverpool is the most deprived city in the UK and also returned a full house and increased majorities.

Agree with lots of your other points in the previous post mind

[Post edited 17 Dec 2019 13:35]

Good Luck UK on 13:31 - Dec 17 with 2030 views

Mick_S

Good Luck UK on 13:29 - Dec 17 by nix
Spot on Konk.

It could be printed and handed around to the hard of thinking.

Did I ever mention that I was in Minder?

Good Luck UK on 13:32 - Dec 17 with 2025 views

BrianMcCarthy

Good Luck UK on 12:04 - Dec 17 by Konk

Even without Brexit and the unique position that put Labour in, it's been obvious for ages that Corbyn was completely unelectable. I have lost count of the amount of people I know who said they couldn't vote for him, even though they would usually vote Labour. A lot of people were unhappy with various causes/individuals he'd aligned himself with in the past, found him too ideological, awkward/odd and humourless, and seemingly unwilling to tolerate or consider competing views. And that's before you get onto the manifesto, which was presumably drawn up with everyone around the table asked to list the top 300 things they would do to make the country better. Rather than proposing a revolution in the first term, what about nationalising railways, extra-funding for public services and leave it at that? Broad-cross-party support for the renationalisation of the railways, nothing too scary for the middle-of-the-road floating-voter. Establish that you can get big projects done in the first term and then propose something more radical for your second term; renationalise the water companies etc. Free broadband ffs - ensuring there would be decent coverage in rural areas would have made sense, but why free broadband? 30% off train fares - I think most people would have been happy with privatisation and the government setting fares in the future. Even something like scrapping student fees - at my local university in Bristol, just under 40% of students were privately-educated. Why should their families be subsidised by working class voters whose kids are statistically much more unlikely to go to university? Why not suggest reintroducing grants or writing-off tuition fees on a means-tested basis? A sh it load cheaper and arguably much fairer. If you promise too much, people begin to question your credibility.

To find ourselves with a massive Tory majority after nine years of devastating austerity, Cameron, May, a complete shi t of a person like Johnson and the fiasco of Brexit, is just beyond my comprehension. I find it depressing reading comments blaming the Guardian/BBC/more-centrist Labour MPs for Labour's failings; large numbers of life-long Labour supporters and floating voters in marginal constituencies gave Labour a massive fu ck-right-off and it wasn't because they heard Jess Phillips or Wes Streeting criticising Corbyn on Radio 4. We live in a country where our public services are on the brink of collapse and only 'function' at all due to the goodwill and dedication of the staff who go above and beyond. We live in a country where food banks have become normalised in towns and cities of all sizes, where schools are asking for parents to contribute towards pens, pencils, paper and books. Where there are record numbers of homeless people sleeping rough, even in the suburbs of our towns and cities. And yet despite all of this, we have just seen a massive Tory majority returned, and often in constituencies that have been amongst the hardest hit. I know Brexit is an obvious factor in that, but at the same time, it should surely be obvious that more of the same from Labour will deliver more of the same at the ballot box.

It's all well and good having 500,000 students, middle-aged SWP-paper-sellers and Len Mcluskey types as members, but if the rest of the country isn't buying into your ideas and backing you, then what's the fu cking point? If the current shadow cabinet are anything to go by, then Labour aren't even going to form an effective opposition. As much as it may dismay the ideological purists in the Labour party, if they want to help the working class of our country, they need to form the government. And if they can't even appeal to their traditional working class voters, never mind those floating voters who are receptive to the idea of a Labour government, then we're stuffed.

[Post edited 17 Dec 2019 12:28]

The thread is holding up well, and no-one's been shot yet, but this is a cracking post. Fair play, Konk.

It seems that every time the Left lose in Europe the press rush to tell them that they should abandon their ideals. When the Right lose, we don't get the same clamour.

I prefer your approach: state what you believe in, what you wish for, what you dream of, but state loud and clear that politics is the art of the possible and that you are clear in your belief that in the next five years only x, y and z can be afforded and only x, y and z will be introduced.

Leadership.

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Good Luck UK on 13:36 - Dec 17 with 2000 views

Clive_Anderson

"after nine years of devastating austerity"

I think people seem to be talking completely different languages in politics. I can never quite figure out what austerity is supposed to mean exactly.

Here is the public sector spending graph:

So it has continued to rise, but not as much as before, which was hardly surprising as increasing spending 10% every year when the economy is growing 2% is unsustainable. It's not like there has been an actual reduction in public spending which most Labour supporters seem to believe there has been.

Even as a % of gdp it's roughly back to 2005 levels, which I don't remember being called austerity when Labour were running things.

As far as I can see not increasing public spending every year much faster than the economy is growing is "austerity".

Good Luck UK on 13:40 - Dec 17 with 1985 views

BrianMcCarthy

Probably doesn't allow for the following, Clive:-

1) Population growth
2) Actual spend on users, rather than private corporations

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Good Luck UK on 13:47 - Dec 17 with 1950 views

stevec

Good Luck UK on 13:36 - Dec 17 by Clive_Anderson

As far as I can see not increasing public spending every year much faster than the economy is growing is "austerity".

This is not the time for factual based evidence suggesting Labour have been talking a load of old bóllocks, we're trying to do some serious navel gazing here.

Ohh, Rebecca Long Bailey. Ohh Rebecca Long Bailey

Good Luck UK on 13:54 - Dec 17 with 1928 views

Clive_Anderson

Good Luck UK on 13:40 - Dec 17 by BrianMcCarthy
Probably doesn't allow for the following, Clive:- 1) Population growth 2) Actual spend on users, rather than private corporations

1) Actually I agree, but if any Tory actually mentioned immigration as a cause in the reduction of quality in public services rather than lack of funding then they would be called a Nazi by the very same people shouting about "austerity".

2) What money is spent on corporations that shouldn't be?

Good Luck UK on 13:58 - Dec 17 with 1913 views

QPR_Jim

Good Luck UK on 13:47 - Dec 17 by stevec
This is not the time for factual based evidence suggesting Labour have been talking a load of old bóllocks, we're trying to do some serious navel gazing here. Ohh, Rebecca Long Bailey. Ohh Rebecca Long Bailey

Wasn't it in consecutive Conservative manifestos to cut spending? So did they fail to keep to their promises?

Good Luck UK on 14:01 - Dec 17 with 1894 views

BazzaInTheLoft

Good Luck UK on 13:40 - Dec 17 by BrianMcCarthy
Probably doesn't allow for the following, Clive:- 1) Population growth 2) Actual spend on users, rather than private corporations

Also doesn’t account for the massive fire sale of state (tax payer) owned assets during that period.

Austerity isn’t just about spending, it’s about what the money was spent on.

Paying for a railway bridge is different to paying ATOS and Capita a fortune to tell paraplegics that they should become hat stands for a living for example.

-1

Good Luck UK on 14:01 - Dec 17 with 1894 views

Clive_Anderson

Good Luck UK on 13:58 - Dec 17 by QPR_Jim
Wasn't it in consecutive Conservative manifestos to cut spending? So did they fail to keep to their promises?

If they said that then they definitely failed to keep their promise, but I seem to remember the idea was to increase public spending slower than the economy grows until public spending was under control.

Good Luck UK on 14:09 - Dec 17 with 1875 views

Clive_Anderson

Good Luck UK on 14:01 - Dec 17 by BazzaInTheLoft
Also doesn’t account for the massive fire sale of state (tax payer) owned assets during that period. Austerity isn’t just about spending, it’s about what the money was spent on. Paying for a railway bridge is different to paying ATOS and Capita a fortune to tell paraplegics that they should become hat stands for a living for example.

How much was sold off compared to previous periods? Genuine question.

I could understand Labour saying they want certain spending cut and other spending increased, but all I've ever heard is that they want to increase spending overall. They don't seem to mention cuts.

They've certainly never said the government is already spending enough money and don't need to increase it. How is just spending the same, but on different things ending "austerity"?

"Paying for a railway bridge is different to paying ATOS and Capita a fortune to tell paraplegics that they should become hat stands for a living for example."

I don't really know what this means. Do you mean the government should never use private companies when providing services?

Good Luck UK on 14:18 - Dec 17 with 1851 views

DannytheR

Good Luck UK on 11:06 - Dec 17 by Benny_the_Ball

If you take just one thing from the election it should be this; it's finally ok to speak candidly rather than place feelings above fact. The fact is the areas I listed have gone downhill in the last 30 years. Period. If you prefer to see it through rose tinted spectacles because you live there then that's your prerogative but I won't be blinkered by loyalty. That's the same form of denial that lost Labour the election by a landslide.

[Post edited 17 Dec 2019 11:15]

Sure, well let me know when we have some facts to discuss and not your own feelings and we might have a halfway decent conversation.

Election or not, there still seems to be a difference between what people say to each other using cartoon avatars and made up names on the internet and what they would, you imagine, not say standing next to someone at a bar in real life. (Where telling people where they live or grew up is sht tends not to go down well.) I've probably been on the wrong side of that one myself now and then, but maybe we should start this glorious new era on a different foot.

Not sure where else this can go really. I like where I live and I still like London, more or less. Sorry if you don't - I'd give the housing market at least another 9 months before people get jumpy, so maybe now's the time to take advantage of it.

Good Luck UK on 14:20 - Dec 17 with 1844 views

PhilmyRs

Good Luck UK on 13:32 - Dec 17 by BrianMcCarthy

I'd say in the UK we did get a defeated 'Right Wing' Party which was asked to abadon it's ideals - The Hague to Cameron power switch? Under Hague the Conservatives lurched to the right, were seen as 'the nasty party' and the only way they were able to get electable again was trying to modernise and gain the centre ground, Cameroon did a decent Blair impression for a time but they were out of the game for a long time.

The interesting point is when the 2 ideals (left and right) colide, sort of like with what happened during this election - the right wing Etonian against the Left Wing Socialist. In that fight there's only ever going to be one winner but had a moderate, progressive centre left or centre right Party been in opposition, and done as you said, made clear that change is gradual, I'd wager my mortgage on there being a different result to the one we got.

Good Luck UK on 14:43 - Dec 17 with 1807 views

DannytheR

Good Luck UK on 13:54 - Dec 17 by Clive_Anderson
1) Actually I agree, but if any Tory actually mentioned immigration as a cause in the reduction of quality in public services rather than lack of funding then they would be called a Nazi by the very same people shouting about "austerity". 2) What money is spent on corporations that shouldn't be?

The population doesn't only grow through immigration though, does it?

(Although given life expectancy rates are already dropping, maybe there's light at the end of that particular tunnel?)

Good Luck UK on 14:43 - Dec 17 with 1806 views

BrianMcCarthy

Good Luck UK on 13:54 - Dec 17 by Clive_Anderson
1) Actually I agree, but if any Tory actually mentioned immigration as a cause in the reduction of quality in public services rather than lack of funding then they would be called a Nazi by the very same people shouting about "austerity". 2) What money is spent on corporations that shouldn't be?

1) I would have thought that with medical advances the quality be improving regardless of demographics and migration/immigration

2) Privatisation is increasing

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Good Luck UK on 14:44 - Dec 17 with 1802 views

BrianMcCarthy

Good Luck UK on 14:20 - Dec 17 by PhilmyRs

Good post, Phil.

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Good Luck UK on 14:46 - Dec 17 with 1789 views

Konk

Good Luck UK on 14:18 - Dec 17 by DannytheR

I think London generally looks an awful lot better now than it did when I was a kid and I don’t understand how you can argue otherwise. Just looking at areas that I’ve always known: The Angel, Highbury, Holloway, Canonbury, Archway, Kings Cross, Tufnell Park, Kentish Town etc; all infinitely smarter and less shabby than they were when I was at school. And that applies to loads of South, East and West London too.

I reckon it’s a better city to eat and drink in than it’s been in my lifetime, public transport is great, it’s full of interesting people, museums, galleries etc are world class. Loads of sport and amazing parks. That said, it’s probably an increasingly sh it place to be if you’re potless, living in sh it digs and worried about your kids getting involved in gangs. But even though I’m very happy to have moved away, that might not have been the case if I’d been living in Crouch End rather than Wood Green. Similarly, I’d be less enamoured of Bristol if I’d ended up in Hartcliffe rather than the poncy end of BS3. I haven’t just swapped cities, I’ve moved to a much calmer, ‘nicer’ area and house(!) that I could never have afforded in London.

London is far too expensive, too unequal, can be too aggressive and too relentless, but it’s surely still one of the world’s great cities. I still love the place.

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Good Luck UK on 14:51 - Dec 17 with 1771 views

hopphoops

Good Luck UK on 13:36 - Dec 17 by Clive_Anderson

As far as I can see not increasing public spending every year much faster than the economy is growing is "austerity".

The answer appears to be that healthcare and pensions spending have been continuing to rise faster than the population growth, as have interest repayments and, in the last three years or so, transport. Other areas have stood pat while others again have been reduced e.g. "protection", welfare, education and community development.

In other words we're not sufficiently growing the working population to match the ageing of the country; and several areas which tend to particularly affect disadvantaged groups have seen spending reduced.

In addition, the loss of sterling value means that more of all spending leaves the country, whether private or public.

Also, the lack of productivity growth (it has risen since 2008 but far more slowly than before that) reinforces the impression of stagnation; and it seems feasible that the progressive decoupling of the high- and low-productivity economies is reflected in spending priorities (e.g. on Crossrail rather than northern regional rail).

https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/download_multi_year_2000_2018UKb_17c1li111mcn

(More detailed findings are accessible to those with more time than me :) )

https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-kingdom/2019/

https://www.ft.com/content/1043eec8-e9a7-11e9-a240-3b065ef5fc55

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=usd&view=10Y

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Good Luck UK on 14:58 - Dec 17 with 1752 views

BazzaInTheLoft

Good Luck UK on 14:09 - Dec 17 by Clive_Anderson

Hey, if you want me to defend the previous Labour government, you’ve come to the wrong guy. Although even at their worst Poverty came down.

In regards to the railway bridge question, no that is not what I meant.

Good Luck UK on 15:46 - Dec 17 with 1659 views

Clive_Anderson

Good Luck UK on 14:58 - Dec 17 by BazzaInTheLoft
Hey, if you want me to defend the previous Labour government, you’ve come to the wrong guy. Although even at their worst Poverty came down. In regards to the railway bridge question, no that is not what I meant.

Sure I don't blame you.

I just meant if spending is at 2005 levels and the amount of selling off is similar then I don't see what makes it austerity now. It's just normal government spending.

Good Luck UK on 15:56 - Dec 17 with 1624 views

loftboy

Just driven round parliament square, there’s about 100 or so protesters in full EU regalia, surely even that can see now that Brexit has started and there’s going to be no second vote.
Also seen people on here mention PR, we had a vote on that in 2011 or is that another one they want to repeat until they get “the correct result”.

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Good Luck UK on 16:02 - Dec 17 with 1588 views

derbyhoop

Good Luck UK on 11:20 - Dec 17 by essextaxiboy
Its funny how different viewpoints see things . I see the extention block as a way to maximise the efforts on both sides to have a trade deal done in a year . I think the pqueens speech will contain legislation to hold us to EU workers rights or better.

Boris wants to enshrine in law that there will be no extension to the transition period.
This has all the makings of May's red lines, limiting his room for manoeuvre and making it harder to get a deal that works for him (or the UK).
I have an image of Sir Humphrey posing the question "do you think that is wise, Prime Minister?".

A DexEU report suggested the complexity of the Irish Protocol could hold up the entire free trade agreement. "Delivery of the required infrastructure, associated systems, and staffing to implement the requirements of the [Irish] protocol by December 2020 represents a major strategic, political and operational challenge," it said.
That sounds like Civil Service speak for it's impossible.
Having worked in IT for 40+ years I am well aware that the Government's ability to develop large, complex projects within a reasonable timescale and budget is non-existent. Add in that nobody can, yet, specify how it is going to work and you have a recipe for a major botch job.

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Good Luck UK on 16:03 - Dec 17 with 1583 views

Watford_Ranger

Good Luck UK on 15:56 - Dec 17 by loftboy
Just driven round parliament square, there’s about 100 or so protesters in full EU regalia, surely even that can see now that Brexit has started and there’s going to be no second vote. Also seen people on here mention PR, we had a vote on that in 2011 or is that another one they want to repeat until they get “the correct result”.

I was at uni at the time so admittedly more concerned with trying to shag anything and sticking my grant in the roulette machine but that one totally passed me by.

Even if they did another ref on ATV, PR or some other more democratic means of electing our betters and it got loads of coverage the turnout would be poor and the old fuds who would make the effort to vote would keep things as they are so that ain’t happening.

Good Luck UK on 16:06 - Dec 17 with 1575 views

2Thomas2Bowles

I wonder what they are really thinking in the EU now all hope of the UK remaining is gone.

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Good Luck UK on 16:07 - Dec 17 with 1572 views

Konk

Good Luck UK on 13:36 - Dec 17 by Clive_Anderson

As far as I can see not increasing public spending every year much faster than the economy is growing is "austerity".

https://www.nao.org.uk/naoblog/local-government-in-2019/

Local government funding cut by almost 50% in real terms since 2010. I have quite a few friends and neighbours who work in education, local government, friends who are coppers, and friends who work in social care. All of whom consider things to be the worst they’ve ever known. I have spent a lot of time in hospitals over the past few years, you chat with the staff and they all seem thoroughly demoralized.

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