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The election In NI was very interesting. DUP lost 20%ish of their voters who probably wont be coming back and the demographics are against them in future. SF lost 25%. Both those two will be in a hurry to get Stormont functioning again to try and drown out their opponents but I doubt if that will work. Both have been poorly led and ignoring big changes in the six counties.
The Republics economy and standard of living has powered ahead of the North which is dependant on public sector jobs which may be in some peril now anyway. Arguably the NHS- much superior to health care in the south is holding the North in the union but how long will that be the case?
In addition traditional or cultural Unionists had a huge message from Boris that he does not care for them and that they need to sensibly think about what the future might bring. That voting block would hold the balance of power in every Irish election rather than the UK ones when there is a hung parliament. Last night the thing trending on Irish Twitter was #unityplan as people who are not traditional republicans try to start thinking of a new framework for a type of United Ireland that maybe enshrines some of the things that unionists hold most dear.
As for the rest of us I think we are going to see some big changes coming. If you read some of Dominic Cummings writings it is very clear he is a total radical- not a conservative at all. Boris looks to see him as his Keith Joseph was to Thatcher. He really plans to smash a lot up to try and remake a modern state- the BBC and the civil service in particular should rightly be very nervous- they will not survive the next 5 years in any recognisable form. It was obvious at the end of the last parliament he was no lover of representative parliamentary democracy, constitutional checks and balances or people who think ' this is the way we have always done it'. What he wants is something that is populist - closer to an Erdgan than a Heseltine. I suspect soon people like Jacob RM will find themselves eaten by the monster they helped create.
How the left responds to that? Hard to say? Much easier to hunker down in self indulgent hatred of Tories as baby eaters. Offering free wifi when there are food banks to deal with one little example. Not seeing anything in the post defeat discussions that even gives a clue they know what is coming next.
Lib dems and labour are potentially leaderless (although JC and co are busy trying to set a new election for leader as favourably as possible to their chosen candidate). Both parties would be sensible to look at forming a new party that is not fixated on the politics of the past but tries to offer solutions to what is coming next. Fat chance of that happening though.
Seat-belts on folks!
Great post, Phildo.
Where did you get your figures on voting swings in the North?
I'm pretty sure that the Irish Health Service is ranked higher than the NHS. Both are in danger of being gutted, however.
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
Where did you get your figures on voting swings in the North?
I'm pretty sure that the Irish Health Service is ranked higher than the NHS. Both are in danger of being gutted, however.
...there is lots of good stuff on Slugger O Toole for a start Brian
A lot of Irish people go for some sort of back up medical insurance don't they? And you have to pay for visits to the GP. But in modern health systems access to the big teaching hospitals is a big thing for specialist stuff which the NHS wins on? I am interested in how you find the health systems compare though having lived with both?
...there is lots of good stuff on Slugger O Toole for a start Brian
A lot of Irish people go for some sort of back up medical insurance don't they? And you have to pay for visits to the GP. But in modern health systems access to the big teaching hospitals is a big thing for specialist stuff which the NHS wins on? I am interested in how you find the health systems compare though having lived with both?
Huge drops for DUP and Sinn Féin. Hadn't realised.
I found the NHS (up to '96) and the IHS since then both excellent. The standard of care in Ireland is incredible and the staff are superb but waiting lists are diabolical, which is why so many go for private as a backup. We're being forced down that route, which is a Western phenomenon, it seems.
My sister and her family moved from London to Ireland a few years back. She worked in the NHS until moving, and she finds both comparable I would say.
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
Well done. Says a lot about your politics that you don't want to read anyone's opinion that is different to your one.
By the slogan, “for the many not the few”, it now reads “provided you are U30 and you agree with our views and accept that we know what’s best for you”
By the slogan, “for the many not the few”, it now reads “provided you are U30 and you agree with our views and accept that we know what’s best for you”
Sterling has already been the best performing major currency this year. And if you think this is a bigger crisis than 1972-1985...(mass murder in Ireland and at times on the mainland, three day week, industrial unrest, riots, fuel shortages, original EU entry).
[Post edited 16 Dec 2019 10:36]
Whilst I agree with the underlying point can we please dispel the myth that the UK joined the EU in 1973. It didn't; it joined the EEC. In 1993, the EEC was incorporated into the EC. In 2009, the EC's institutions were absorbed into the EU's wider framework and the community ceased to exist. Thus over time the UK moved from a mere customs union to political, social, economic and legal integration.
In terms of joining, the UK had attempted to join the EEC throughout the 1960s but was consistently vetoed by Charles de Gaulle because he feared the UK would dilute France's influence. It was only after de Gaulle's resignation that the UK were finally able to join the EEC in 1973. Note that there was no referendum to join. However the PM of the day, Harold Wilson, felt that the UK were getting a raw deal so he put continued membership of the EEC to a public referendum in 1975. The electorate ignored him and voted to remain. No one asked the UK public in 1993 whether it wanted to join the EC nor did anyone ask the UK public in 2009 whether it wanted the EC absorbed by the EU.
As a result, in my opinion leaving the EU is justified as not only is it a failing organisation but we never chose to join it in the first place. We'd like to return to that which we did elect to be a part of, the EEC; but there's no going back as the EU will not allow the UK to cherry pick.
It's somewhat ironic that a Labour PM, Harold Wilson, should feel so strongly about the UK's unfavourable terms that he chose to put continued membership of the EEC to a referendum. 44 years later it's the Conservatives taking us out of the EU whilst the current Labour leader sat on the fence. Indeed, Labour's stance on the EU was perfectly summed up by Dianne Abbott; a different shoe on each foot.
That is just awful Brian, truly depressing. My wife and I are over a few times a year visiting in-laws - the changes in the North since our first visit maybe thirty years ago are remarkable in what is a beautiful and friendly place. We've looked at perhaps moving over when we get a bit older.
What a mess.
No secret that the improvement in the North is coinciding with a shift in political ideology. Compare that to London in the last 30 years; it's become markedly more depressed, downtrodden and unwelcoming.
Whilst I agree with the underlying point can we please dispel the myth that the UK joined the EU in 1973. It didn't; it joined the EEC. In 1993, the EEC was incorporated into the EC. In 2009, the EC's institutions were absorbed into the EU's wider framework and the community ceased to exist. Thus over time the UK moved from a mere customs union to political, social, economic and legal integration.
In terms of joining, the UK had attempted to join the EEC throughout the 1960s but was consistently vetoed by Charles de Gaulle because he feared the UK would dilute France's influence. It was only after de Gaulle's resignation that the UK were finally able to join the EEC in 1973. Note that there was no referendum to join. However the PM of the day, Harold Wilson, felt that the UK were getting a raw deal so he put continued membership of the EEC to a public referendum in 1975. The electorate ignored him and voted to remain. No one asked the UK public in 1993 whether it wanted to join the EC nor did anyone ask the UK public in 2009 whether it wanted the EC absorbed by the EU.
As a result, in my opinion leaving the EU is justified as not only is it a failing organisation but we never chose to join it in the first place. We'd like to return to that which we did elect to be a part of, the EEC; but there's no going back as the EU will not allow the UK to cherry pick.
It's somewhat ironic that a Labour PM, Harold Wilson, should feel so strongly about the UK's unfavourable terms that he chose to put continued membership of the EEC to a referendum. 44 years later it's the Conservatives taking us out of the EU whilst the current Labour leader sat on the fence. Indeed, Labour's stance on the EU was perfectly summed up by Dianne Abbott; a different shoe on each foot.
Didn't Wilson and most of his cabinet campaign vigorously to stay in (supported by Mrs T)- opposed by Tony Benn, Peter Shore and Michael Foot? They were honouring a manifesto commitment to have a referendum after a renegotiation of terms.
I suppose we should ask Sturgeon as she claims that if Scotland got indepedence (post brexit) and were in EU there would be no need for a border between Scotland & England.
She obviously is aware of something we are not!
If there is no need as she claims, this would mean no need between Eire & N.I.
Suggest EU & Boris find out her magic formula
And you believe her? The EU has made it patently clear that if the UK leaves the EU, Scotland leaves with it. Similarly if Scotland left the UK before the latter left the EU, the former would cease to be a member. Either way Scotland would have to re-apply for EU membership which takes many years. If Sturgeon is claiming otherwise then it's nothing more than nationalistic blunderbuss.
And you believe her? The EU has made it patently clear that if the UK leaves the EU, Scotland leaves with it. Similarly if Scotland left the UK before the latter left the EU, the former would cease to be a member. Either way Scotland would have to re-apply for EU membership which takes many years. If Sturgeon is claiming otherwise then it's nothing more than nationalistic blunderbuss.
With the added bonus, of having the euro as their national currency
It has surprised me that this humiliation for Labour, and it was a humiliation, hasn’t resulted in the reaction I’d expect. The narrative that it was the Southern softies and their Brexit position which was the problem, not the “credibility” of the Party, I find slightly worrying.
In 1983, and the infamous ‘Longest suicide note in history” manifesto (which eventually paved the way, for New Labour) was written by a Party infected with characters like Scargil and other militant types, preferring mass scale industrial action and protest, to actually attempting to appear as a credible, viable alternative to the Thatcher government. While the manifesto put forward by Labour for this election was not in the 1983 (unilateral nuclear disarmament during a cold war) league of boldness/stupidity, indeed there were some policies/ideas which would have proved popular, their “bold ideas” were not backed up by trust in the Team required to deliver them.
‘Old Labour in our hearts, new labour in our means’ was something Blair/Brown understood. Working families tax credits, New Deal (although a failure), and minimum wage were positive changes at the time which showed at least a commitment to tackle inequalities, but they were supplemented by policies aimed at gaining “trust” in how they intended to deliver them — Bank of England independence, sticking to Tory spending plans for the first 2 years, reinforcing the Brown “gold rule” on spending. Try and appear credible, gain the public trust, one brick at a time etc…but no, we got little of that with Corbyn or the message failed to be delivered. I remember all the promises, the spending plans and nationalisations — big ideas — but where were the self-imposed controls which would have helped to steady the nerves of an already nervous electorate? You’re not swapping Brown for Cameroon here, your swapping a Tory government for a left wing Socialist that has, in the past, openly praised a regime and leader (Venezuela) that has people fleeing in their thousands while their leaders desperately cling onto power. An oil producing country that has bankrupted itself. As a minimum you need to convince the electorate you can be trusted, you’re not a fan of failed ultra- left wing regimes and you respect that change is a “gradual process” not a revolution. We’re not fcking Russia in the 1900s. Sadly they never gained the trust of the wider public.
Yes Corbyn has received a nasty and unfair press but in a world where leadership and Charisma are, whether you like it or not, turning into key requirements for any future PM, he either has none or doesn’t have the skill to project it to the wider public. His handling and response to anti-Semitism and his sit on the fence Brexit strategy clearly cost him votes showed his lack of leadership.
For all those like myself, and there are a lot, that has often voted labour, never Conservative, it was the leadership Team and my distrust of their economic competence and inability to show me that they had the capacity and skill to be more than a leadership Team for the dissatisfied (Momentum movement) that cost them my vote, not their position on Brexit. This makes it all the more frustrating that rather than try and win the centre ground and appear credible, they’re potentially going to continue in the same failed direction. It took 15 years last time for the return of a Labour government after finally accepting the need to change, I fear we’re about to experience the same sh*t but with a younger mob. Brace yourself for 5 years of disunity, squabbling and ugly infighting, something in my younger years you would have associated with the Tory Party…not anymore.
No secret that the improvement in the North is coinciding with a shift in political ideology. Compare that to London in the last 30 years; it's become markedly more depressed, downtrodden and unwelcoming.
No secret that the improvement in the North is coinciding with a shift in political ideology. Compare that to London in the last 30 years; it's become markedly more depressed, downtrodden and unwelcoming.
Do you live in London? This isn't the city I recognise.
The London I know is more vibrant, more busy, more economically active and more prosperous than I can remember in my entire adult life (since 1982). Of course it isn't without its problems, but that's true of most big cities.
Didn't Wilson and most of his cabinet campaign vigorously to stay in (supported by Mrs T)- opposed by Tony Benn, Peter Shore and Michael Foot? They were honouring a manifesto commitment to have a referendum after a renegotiation of terms.
In 1974 Wilson did pledge to offer a referendum on whether Britain should stay in the EEC on new terms. Initially he was minded to recommended a vote in favour of continued membership but the cabinet was split on the issue so Ministers were allowed to campaign on different sides of the question.
Come the referendum Wilson adopted a neutral stance. In a 1975 EEC campaign pamphlet he said: "I ask you to use your vote. For it is your vote that will now decide. The Government will accept your verdict. Now the time has come for you to decide. The Government will accept your decision – whichever way it goes."
What was interesting was, like 2015, the EEC referendum result was not legally binding. However, unlike 2015, it was widely accepted that the EEC vote would be politically binding on future Westminster Parliaments.
Another interesting point to note is that Labour's 1983 general election manifesto pledged withdrawal from the EEC. Given how that went down and the recent divisions in Labour ranks regarding EU membership, I suspect that Corbyn copied Wilson's strategy of neutrality. If so, he didn't take into account that Wilson was already in power and his premiership was not on the line.
Do you live in London? This isn't the city I recognise.
The London I know is more vibrant, more busy, more economically active and more prosperous than I can remember in my entire adult life (since 1982). Of course it isn't without its problems, but that's true of most big cities.
Yes I live in London. We may now have Canary Wharf but I'm not convinced we have more prosperity. Grotesque property prices mean that even the middle classes are JAM. Only yesterday I was talking to a lass whose family is struggling to survive in Crystal Palace despite her high profile City job. I have professional friends who moved to Manchester and Birmingham for the very same reasons. They now earn a little less but their standard and quality of life has improved immeasurably.
Busy doesn't necessarily equate to better. You need to take into account that many of those that work in London live in the Home Counties and beyond. Thus they take their prosperity elsewhere. As a result places like Surrey, Sussex, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Essex and Hampshire have continued to flourish whilst areas like Ealing, Acton, Southall, Hayes, Hillingdon, Latimer Road, Ladbroke Grove and (dare I say it) Shepherds Bush have gone downhill. Only super-rich areas like Notting Hill, Mayfair, Regents Park, Islington, Holland Park, etc. are recognisable from 30 years ago but they remain inaccessible to most folk.
It has surprised me that this humiliation for Labour, and it was a humiliation, hasn’t resulted in the reaction I’d expect. The narrative that it was the Southern softies and their Brexit position which was the problem, not the “credibility” of the Party, I find slightly worrying.
In 1983, and the infamous ‘Longest suicide note in history” manifesto (which eventually paved the way, for New Labour) was written by a Party infected with characters like Scargil and other militant types, preferring mass scale industrial action and protest, to actually attempting to appear as a credible, viable alternative to the Thatcher government. While the manifesto put forward by Labour for this election was not in the 1983 (unilateral nuclear disarmament during a cold war) league of boldness/stupidity, indeed there were some policies/ideas which would have proved popular, their “bold ideas” were not backed up by trust in the Team required to deliver them.
‘Old Labour in our hearts, new labour in our means’ was something Blair/Brown understood. Working families tax credits, New Deal (although a failure), and minimum wage were positive changes at the time which showed at least a commitment to tackle inequalities, but they were supplemented by policies aimed at gaining “trust” in how they intended to deliver them — Bank of England independence, sticking to Tory spending plans for the first 2 years, reinforcing the Brown “gold rule” on spending. Try and appear credible, gain the public trust, one brick at a time etc…but no, we got little of that with Corbyn or the message failed to be delivered. I remember all the promises, the spending plans and nationalisations — big ideas — but where were the self-imposed controls which would have helped to steady the nerves of an already nervous electorate? You’re not swapping Brown for Cameroon here, your swapping a Tory government for a left wing Socialist that has, in the past, openly praised a regime and leader (Venezuela) that has people fleeing in their thousands while their leaders desperately cling onto power. An oil producing country that has bankrupted itself. As a minimum you need to convince the electorate you can be trusted, you’re not a fan of failed ultra- left wing regimes and you respect that change is a “gradual process” not a revolution. We’re not fcking Russia in the 1900s. Sadly they never gained the trust of the wider public.
Yes Corbyn has received a nasty and unfair press but in a world where leadership and Charisma are, whether you like it or not, turning into key requirements for any future PM, he either has none or doesn’t have the skill to project it to the wider public. His handling and response to anti-Semitism and his sit on the fence Brexit strategy clearly cost him votes showed his lack of leadership.
For all those like myself, and there are a lot, that has often voted labour, never Conservative, it was the leadership Team and my distrust of their economic competence and inability to show me that they had the capacity and skill to be more than a leadership Team for the dissatisfied (Momentum movement) that cost them my vote, not their position on Brexit. This makes it all the more frustrating that rather than try and win the centre ground and appear credible, they’re potentially going to continue in the same failed direction. It took 15 years last time for the return of a Labour government after finally accepting the need to change, I fear we’re about to experience the same sh*t but with a younger mob. Brace yourself for 5 years of disunity, squabbling and ugly infighting, something in my younger years you would have associated with the Tory Party…not anymore.
Finally, an honest and refreshing appraisal of Labour's 2019 campaign from a Labour supporter. Unless more are prepared to reflect in the same way, Labour will continue to struggle.
It has surprised me that this humiliation for Labour, and it was a humiliation, hasn’t resulted in the reaction I’d expect. The narrative that it was the Southern softies and their Brexit position which was the problem, not the “credibility” of the Party, I find slightly worrying.
In 1983, and the infamous ‘Longest suicide note in history” manifesto (which eventually paved the way, for New Labour) was written by a Party infected with characters like Scargil and other militant types, preferring mass scale industrial action and protest, to actually attempting to appear as a credible, viable alternative to the Thatcher government. While the manifesto put forward by Labour for this election was not in the 1983 (unilateral nuclear disarmament during a cold war) league of boldness/stupidity, indeed there were some policies/ideas which would have proved popular, their “bold ideas” were not backed up by trust in the Team required to deliver them.
‘Old Labour in our hearts, new labour in our means’ was something Blair/Brown understood. Working families tax credits, New Deal (although a failure), and minimum wage were positive changes at the time which showed at least a commitment to tackle inequalities, but they were supplemented by policies aimed at gaining “trust” in how they intended to deliver them — Bank of England independence, sticking to Tory spending plans for the first 2 years, reinforcing the Brown “gold rule” on spending. Try and appear credible, gain the public trust, one brick at a time etc…but no, we got little of that with Corbyn or the message failed to be delivered. I remember all the promises, the spending plans and nationalisations — big ideas — but where were the self-imposed controls which would have helped to steady the nerves of an already nervous electorate? You’re not swapping Brown for Cameroon here, your swapping a Tory government for a left wing Socialist that has, in the past, openly praised a regime and leader (Venezuela) that has people fleeing in their thousands while their leaders desperately cling onto power. An oil producing country that has bankrupted itself. As a minimum you need to convince the electorate you can be trusted, you’re not a fan of failed ultra- left wing regimes and you respect that change is a “gradual process” not a revolution. We’re not fcking Russia in the 1900s. Sadly they never gained the trust of the wider public.
Yes Corbyn has received a nasty and unfair press but in a world where leadership and Charisma are, whether you like it or not, turning into key requirements for any future PM, he either has none or doesn’t have the skill to project it to the wider public. His handling and response to anti-Semitism and his sit on the fence Brexit strategy clearly cost him votes showed his lack of leadership.
For all those like myself, and there are a lot, that has often voted labour, never Conservative, it was the leadership Team and my distrust of their economic competence and inability to show me that they had the capacity and skill to be more than a leadership Team for the dissatisfied (Momentum movement) that cost them my vote, not their position on Brexit. This makes it all the more frustrating that rather than try and win the centre ground and appear credible, they’re potentially going to continue in the same failed direction. It took 15 years last time for the return of a Labour government after finally accepting the need to change, I fear we’re about to experience the same sh*t but with a younger mob. Brace yourself for 5 years of disunity, squabbling and ugly infighting, something in my younger years you would have associated with the Tory Party…not anymore.
If they decide on Rebecca Long Bailey they are out of office for 20 years IMO.
As a Tory voter I most fear Jess Phillips , so much so that I may even vote for her.
Bazza is just trying to make the world a better place. Hats off to him for that. I did wonder why he used a QPR forum as a platform to push the momentum agenda though. Politics and religion is so divisive. Never sat well for me that he turned 80% of threads into something political, but thats just me i guess.Regarding the Tories continuing to run the country like they have been for most of my 43 years of life i think Lblock had it right when he said we've just got to get on with it. Putting up some sort of opposition at every available opportunity doesn't help anyone. I think Boris needs all the help he can get. The anglo American world power will be in full swing.
Baz can confirm or deny this......... but as an activist I would think he is what Momentum call an outrider .
The advice would be to engage people wherever you go, online or in person, online tutorials on how to deal with objection on the doorstep and a library of videos and charts to push home the message .
In 2017 it seemed slick and efficient , Baz would come back with media to back his message within minutes . I didnt think the Tories could ever compete. I certainly struggled .
as with 2T2B I hope to have a pint with him one day at LR ..........
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