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Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 220742 viewsSgorioFruit

Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy.

My methods are not favoured by some but by god i speak the truth.
Poll: What Happened Today???

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Corona Virus on 23:33 - Apr 13 with 2098 viewsairedale

Corona Virus on 22:21 - Apr 13 by Gwyn737

One for Prof if you don’t mind. When the easing of the lockdown comes, do you think that opening schools will be one of the first actions?

I can’t wait to get the kids back in, but I’m concerned if there still would need to some social distancing. It would be difficult in secondary school but I’ve got 60 kids aged 5 and under - god knows how I’d do it!


God only knows how you managed to get 60 kids aged 5 or less Billy.
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Corona Virus on 23:34 - Apr 13 with 2095 viewsairedale

Mr B Goat.
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Corona Virus on 00:24 - Apr 14 with 2063 viewsJack123

Corona Virus on 22:21 - Apr 13 by Gwyn737

One for Prof if you don’t mind. When the easing of the lockdown comes, do you think that opening schools will be one of the first actions?

I can’t wait to get the kids back in, but I’m concerned if there still would need to some social distancing. It would be difficult in secondary school but I’ve got 60 kids aged 5 and under - god knows how I’d do it!


One thing I hope is when the easing of restrictions comes for the uk, Wales are most certainly locked down at least a month or so more.. Otherwise i fear our figures will go very high, like all the stats with the highest figures are coming from England, and last time i looked mainly London and Midlands, if there was a relaxation of lock down, I do hope that it's only for England, and Wales keep the same strict lock down.

Not going to end very good, if they travel down here for holidays in the summer.

Edit. Sorry should not have quoted you.
[Post edited 14 Apr 1:01]
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Corona Virus on 01:25 - Apr 14 with 2022 viewsDJack

Corona Virus on 23:16 - Apr 13 by Banosswan

Interesting arguments here from obvious academics, who (as they should) want peer reviewed, evidential based answers.

The reality is, at the moment, people on the front line are reacting to evolving situations, with individual patients and making little adjustments as and when we can.

Decisions are being made by specialists, using their best judgement, at an unprecedented time, often outside their particular specialism.

Listen to the government, stop pointing fingers, the time for that will come eventually.


I'm about as far away as you could get from academia. I'm probably SLIGHTLY upper range of normal IQ level but I do know the value of evidence and peer review.

On another point was my belief about the aerosolised virus article correct, in that it was (reported as) stable in a controlled environment and not applicable to the "real world"?

It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan

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Corona Virus on 09:32 - Apr 14 with 1812 viewsProfessor

Corona Virus on 01:25 - Apr 14 by DJack

I'm about as far away as you could get from academia. I'm probably SLIGHTLY upper range of normal IQ level but I do know the value of evidence and peer review.

On another point was my belief about the aerosolised virus article correct, in that it was (reported as) stable in a controlled environment and not applicable to the "real world"?


Well I reckon you are the first person to use ‘Bayesian ‘ on this forum. Waiting for a use of Markov
Monte Carlo modelling next.

Of course it’s aerosols and droplets that are the primary route. That’s why social distancing is key.
The vast majority of respiratory viruses spread that way.
I think the chloroquine was a case of opinion and self-interest above evidence- hence my rather damning posts.
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Corona Virus on 12:39 - Apr 14 with 1687 viewschad

Corona Virus on 09:32 - Apr 14 by Professor

Well I reckon you are the first person to use ‘Bayesian ‘ on this forum. Waiting for a use of Markov
Monte Carlo modelling next.

Of course it’s aerosols and droplets that are the primary route. That’s why social distancing is key.
The vast majority of respiratory viruses spread that way.
I think the chloroquine was a case of opinion and self-interest above evidence- hence my rather damning posts.


Prof

Given

In highly infectious diseases such as that caused by the measles virus, aerosol transmission and their airborne nature is accepted.

WHO accept that SARS-CoV-2 is infectious in aerosol creating procedures

I think? you previously advised of the potential to create aerosols by washing fruit

Is it not the case that coughs can create aerosols?
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Corona Virus on 13:08 - Apr 14 with 1640 viewsmonmouth

I think the internet has shown that we are all in the company of an excessive overload of total aerosols.

Poll: TRUST MEMBERS: What DID you vote in the, um, vote

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Corona Virus on 13:28 - Apr 14 with 1607 viewschad

Corona Virus on 13:08 - Apr 14 by monmouth

I think the internet has shown that we are all in the company of an excessive overload of total aerosols.


Excellent has that been peer reviewed

p.s. do you still think me naive believing Boris was not on a respirator
(my logic was they could not risk lying about that as it would have been exposed)

Perhaps Trump got Disney to provide an animatronic facsimile of Boris for his latest statement ;)
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Corona Virus on 13:54 - Apr 14 with 1575 viewsProfessor

Corona Virus on 12:39 - Apr 14 by chad

Prof

Given

In highly infectious diseases such as that caused by the measles virus, aerosol transmission and their airborne nature is accepted.

WHO accept that SARS-CoV-2 is infectious in aerosol creating procedures

I think? you previously advised of the potential to create aerosols by washing fruit

Is it not the case that coughs can create aerosols?


Of course-the old coughs and sneezes spread diseases. This us where I am sure the majority of cases originate, and why the closure of pubs etc was a bit late

With non-peeled fruit or veg to be eaten raw I would always wash-too many potential food borne pathogens not to -worth bearing in mind Salmonella kills about 150,000 people around the world annually (often as co-morbidity/infection with HIV and Malaria in Africa). I did say washing food to be cooked to packaging was an aerosol risk when extremely unlikely to have any SARS-CoV2 there in the first place. Raw meat should never be washed.
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Corona Virus on 13:56 - Apr 14 with 1570 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Corona Virus on 01:25 - Apr 14 by DJack

I'm about as far away as you could get from academia. I'm probably SLIGHTLY upper range of normal IQ level but I do know the value of evidence and peer review.

On another point was my belief about the aerosolised virus article correct, in that it was (reported as) stable in a controlled environment and not applicable to the "real world"?


" I'm probably SLIGHTLY upper range of normal IQ level but I do know the value of evidence and peer review."

I suggest that you google "Science Peer Review Crisis".
Perhaps you won't have quite so much faith afterwards, just let me know if you want a link to any of the 88,000,000 hits that come up.

Of course most of the critisism is by "experts".
[Post edited 14 Apr 13:57]
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Corona Virus on 14:48 - Apr 14 with 1506 viewsProfessor

Corona Virus on 13:56 - Apr 14 by A_Fans_Dad

" I'm probably SLIGHTLY upper range of normal IQ level but I do know the value of evidence and peer review."

I suggest that you google "Science Peer Review Crisis".
Perhaps you won't have quite so much faith afterwards, just let me know if you want a link to any of the 88,000,000 hits that come up.

Of course most of the critisism is by "experts".
[Post edited 14 Apr 13:57]


Peer Review is far from perfect and there are an increasing number of people wanting to head for post-publication peer review to the more iterative process used by Frontiers journals. It is, however, perhaps still the fairest and best method available. I am yet to be convinced by a better way to decide grant funding or publication. I have been a member of grant panels and and editor on several journals -which are unpaid or receive minimal payment to cover expenses. I think the Didier Raoult situation show why there is a filter or control needed.
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Corona Virus on 15:31 - Apr 14 with 1462 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Corona Virus on 14:48 - Apr 14 by Professor

Peer Review is far from perfect and there are an increasing number of people wanting to head for post-publication peer review to the more iterative process used by Frontiers journals. It is, however, perhaps still the fairest and best method available. I am yet to be convinced by a better way to decide grant funding or publication. I have been a member of grant panels and and editor on several journals -which are unpaid or receive minimal payment to cover expenses. I think the Didier Raoult situation show why there is a filter or control needed.


The main problem is "Reproducibility" and it especially prevalent in the Medical Research Sciences.

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laneur/PIIS1474-4422(19)30481-8.pdf

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-39054778

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-02/fhu-ha021020.php

I highlighted an honest Scientist on a climate post who in doing medical research had her paper published only to find that she herself could not even reproduce the earlier results.
Was it reviewed, if not how was it published?
She had the paper withdrawn.
[Post edited 14 Apr 15:32]
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Corona Virus on 16:23 - Apr 14 with 1404 viewsProfessor

Corona Virus on 15:31 - Apr 14 by A_Fans_Dad

The main problem is "Reproducibility" and it especially prevalent in the Medical Research Sciences.

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laneur/PIIS1474-4422(19)30481-8.pdf

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-39054778

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-02/fhu-ha021020.php

I highlighted an honest Scientist on a climate post who in doing medical research had her paper published only to find that she herself could not even reproduce the earlier results.
Was it reviewed, if not how was it published?
She had the paper withdrawn.
[Post edited 14 Apr 15:32]


No one knows about reproducibility unless they try to reproduce the data. The is why sample sizes and proper analysis need to be done. However, there is a degree of malpractice and data (especially image) manipulation as the drive to publish is enormous from universities and research institutes. In particular from China at the moment. A particular concern is 'paper mills'-journal articles being written to order. Look up some of the work Elizabeth Blk is doing in this area.

This is why that Raoult paper is very dodgy-drive for primacy leading to cut corners and poor analysis
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Corona Virus on 19:32 - Apr 14 with 1251 viewsPentyrchJack

You have to feel for this nurse who came back from retirement to help the NHS and died from. COVID 19, possible due to inadequate PPE. He's just the tip of the iceberg. I wonder what our First Minister has to say about this then?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52272369

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Corona Virus on 22:55 - Apr 14 with 1119 viewsBanosswan

Corona Virus on 01:25 - Apr 14 by DJack

I'm about as far away as you could get from academia. I'm probably SLIGHTLY upper range of normal IQ level but I do know the value of evidence and peer review.

On another point was my belief about the aerosolised virus article correct, in that it was (reported as) stable in a controlled environment and not applicable to the "real world"?


To be honest, when I had an email from (can't remember specifically at this time), in university hospitals Birmingham, saying nebulisation isn't aerosol producing, I may have lost the will to live.

Ever since my son was... never conceived, because I've never had consensual sex without money involved... I've always kind of looked at you as... a thing, that I could live next to... in accordance with state laws.
Poll: How do you like your steak?

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Corona Virus on 00:40 - Apr 15 with 1051 viewsairedale

Corona Virus on 22:55 - Apr 14 by Banosswan

To be honest, when I had an email from (can't remember specifically at this time), in university hospitals Birmingham, saying nebulisation isn't aerosol producing, I may have lost the will to live.


Pardon?
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Corona Virus on 09:12 - Apr 15 with 891 viewsCountyJim

https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/18380245.first-five-critical-care-coronav

Bit of good news for a change but boy we have had it rough in the Gwent
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Corona Virus on 10:50 - Apr 15 with 810 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Corona Virus on 09:12 - Apr 15 by CountyJim

https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/18380245.first-five-critical-care-coronav

Bit of good news for a change but boy we have had it rough in the Gwent


That is a bit of good news, I can't read the article as it doesn't like my Ad blocker.
Does it say how long they were in critical care?
[Post edited 15 Apr 10:50]
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Corona Virus on 10:53 - Apr 15 with 805 viewsA_Fans_Dad

An interesting article from 2015 about the Experiments that were being conducted on the SARS virus in China.

https://rairfoundation.com/breaking-salvini-demands-answers-does-a-2015-italian-

The question for me is what Medical reason can be given doing what they did?
Why would you want to make the virus more dangerous for pure research?
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Corona Virus on 11:11 - Apr 15 with 775 viewsCountyJim

Corona Virus on 10:50 - Apr 15 by A_Fans_Dad

That is a bit of good news, I can't read the article as it doesn't like my Ad blocker.
Does it say how long they were in critical care?
[Post edited 15 Apr 10:50]


It just says since outbreak started they been ventilated
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Corona Virus on 11:13 - Apr 15 with 773 viewsBytholWyn

I stand to be corrected, but I assume that Dr David Hepburn is the same consultant that features heavily on the BBC Wales excellent documentary series that was filmed in the Royal Gwent's ICU unit last summer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/m000h64s/critical-inside-intensive-care

All the consultants come across so well (but especially Dr Hepburn) not least with their professional and non-judgemental attitude towards the alcoholics and drug addicts that make up such a high proportion of the ICU unit's intake. Very, very impressive. A poignant watch given the challenges they've faced in recent weeks.
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Corona Virus on 11:16 - Apr 15 with 761 viewsJACKMANANDBOY

Corona Virus on 10:53 - Apr 15 by A_Fans_Dad

An interesting article from 2015 about the Experiments that were being conducted on the SARS virus in China.

https://rairfoundation.com/breaking-salvini-demands-answers-does-a-2015-italian-

The question for me is what Medical reason can be given doing what they did?
Why would you want to make the virus more dangerous for pure research?


Rather than pulling WHO Funding Trump should increase it on the basis that there should be a full independent review of what happened in China. If we don't know what caused this it is difficult to stop it happening again.

Besian Idrizaj Forever a Jack

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Corona Virus on 11:17 - Apr 15 with 759 viewsCountyJim

Corona Virus on 11:13 - Apr 15 by BytholWyn

I stand to be corrected, but I assume that Dr David Hepburn is the same consultant that features heavily on the BBC Wales excellent documentary series that was filmed in the Royal Gwent's ICU unit last summer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/m000h64s/critical-inside-intensive-care

All the consultants come across so well (but especially Dr Hepburn) not least with their professional and non-judgemental attitude towards the alcoholics and drug addicts that make up such a high proportion of the ICU unit's intake. Very, very impressive. A poignant watch given the challenges they've faced in recent weeks.


I'm also on there 3 times pushing beds about
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Corona Virus on 11:20 - Apr 15 with 756 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Corona Virus on 11:17 - Apr 15 by CountyJim

I'm also on there 3 times pushing beds about


Wow a real live TV star.
[Post edited 15 Apr 11:20]
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Corona Virus on 11:24 - Apr 15 with 1316 viewsCountyJim

Corona Virus on 11:20 - Apr 15 by A_Fans_Dad

Wow a real live TV star.
[Post edited 15 Apr 11:20]


https://linksharing.samsungcloud.com/vlAX2920ZOdN

Not sure if that link works
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