| Coronavirus mortality 23:32 - Oct 2 with 16379 views | Professor |
Let’s put a true perspective on this. 99.5% of people survive. Well maybe, though probably closer to 99%. Imagine a full house at the Liberty.
Imagine as you go out a line of 120 people (maybe 240). They are executed.
That is a 0.5% mortality rate.
It’s not a binary disease either. More will have long term illness.
Just think about that.
This is not supporting a lockdown or any other specific intervention. Just a reality check. By the way flu has a 0.1% mortality rate. |  | | |  |
| Coronavirus mortality on 18:12 - Oct 9 with 1147 views | exhmrc1 |
| Coronavirus mortality on 17:10 - Oct 9 by A_Fans_Dad |
Why do you say that people weren't wearing masks?
Some of us have been wearing them right from the beginning, we did not need the government to lead us by the hand and tell us what was the best thing to do.
Why do you think it took the UK so long to get it under control compared to countries that had lockdown, social distancing, hand washing and masks? [Post edited 9 Oct 2020 17:22]
|
What I have seen is that before masks were compulsory very few used them. Been a bit different since mid September where people now do but the period from March to August very few wore them. | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 18:20 - Oct 9 with 1147 views | A_Fans_Dad |
Yet another Arthritis drug that helps saves lives, but this is a more expensive drug called Baricitinib.
Not that I particularly trust NIH sponsored studies.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/he | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 19:42 - Oct 9 with 1126 views | Andy1300 |
| Coronavirus mortality on 17:00 - Oct 9 by exhmrc1 |
If it was the mask that lowered the spread then the figures wouldnt drop when people weren't wearing them from 391 in a day to 8 in a day. This didnt happen because of masks. It happened through good social distancing and hand washing and due to the stay local rule. These worked. The evidence shows that. Masks weren't generally being worn and figures were down to next to nothing. They only went back up when borders and pubs were opened. |
And testing was more widely used.
Increase testing, increase positive results. |  |
| |
| Coronavirus mortality on 19:45 - Oct 9 with 1118 views | Dr_Winston |
I've seen CFR ratios ranging from 0.08 to 0.5. |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
| |
| Coronavirus mortality on 19:50 - Oct 9 with 1114 views | exhmrc1 |
| Coronavirus mortality on 19:42 - Oct 9 by Andy1300 |
And testing was more widely used.
Increase testing, increase positive results. |
Increased testing doesnt give the reason for 8 cases in a day becoming 766 today. Even if testing had increased 5 fold it would only bring about 40 cases pro rata. There is far more coronavirus around now that there was 2 months ago. The real question is why and why it dropped hugely before and there is no doubt that it has occurred since our borders were opened, pubs were opened and students have gone to university. These are the reasons for the increase and the mask issue is a smokescreen. It came down with good social distancing, washing of hands and restricting movement when masks were not generally being worn, | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 20:52 - Oct 9 with 1097 views | Andy1300 |
| Coronavirus mortality on 19:50 - Oct 9 by exhmrc1 |
Increased testing doesnt give the reason for 8 cases in a day becoming 766 today. Even if testing had increased 5 fold it would only bring about 40 cases pro rata. There is far more coronavirus around now that there was 2 months ago. The real question is why and why it dropped hugely before and there is no doubt that it has occurred since our borders were opened, pubs were opened and students have gone to university. These are the reasons for the increase and the mask issue is a smokescreen. It came down with good social distancing, washing of hands and restricting movement when masks were not generally being worn, |
How did they find these cases?
Testing was targeted in the first wave
Testing is now widespread, they are guaranteed to find more.
If they didn’t do any tests on Sunday, there wouldn’t be any more cases to publish, doesn’t mean they are not there! | |
| |
| Coronavirus mortality on 21:16 - Oct 9 with 1080 views | onehunglow |
Andy.
We disagree here on this subject however,we still good? | |
| |
| Coronavirus mortality on 21:28 - Oct 9 with 1073 views | exhmrc1 |
| Coronavirus mortality on 20:52 - Oct 9 by Andy1300 |
How did they find these cases?
Testing was targeted in the first wave
Testing is now widespread, they are guaranteed to find more.
If they didn’t do any tests on Sunday, there wouldn’t be any more cases to publish, doesn’t mean they are not there! |
On 1 September there were 57 cases out of 6303 tests. Today there were more 496 cases out of less tests 5303. Nearly 10 times the amount with fewer tests. It doesnt follow that more tests mean you will catch a disproportionate amount of tests. That only happens if the virus is more prevalant ie there are more cases out there and more people are infected. Based on your theory you would expect there to be more positive tests on 1 September when in fact there were nearly 10 times less. | | | |
Login to get fewer ads
| Coronavirus mortality on 22:14 - Oct 9 with 1063 views | Catullus |
| Coronavirus mortality on 19:50 - Oct 9 by exhmrc1 |
Increased testing doesnt give the reason for 8 cases in a day becoming 766 today. Even if testing had increased 5 fold it would only bring about 40 cases pro rata. There is far more coronavirus around now that there was 2 months ago. The real question is why and why it dropped hugely before and there is no doubt that it has occurred since our borders were opened, pubs were opened and students have gone to university. These are the reasons for the increase and the mask issue is a smokescreen. It came down with good social distancing, washing of hands and restricting movement when masks were not generally being worn, |
Surely you cannot make a pro rata projection for a virus? As Andy says, we only had targeted testing previously, since we have widespread testing we are finding the virus was more widespread.
We know very many people are/were asymptomatic so only testing those with symptoms was obviously returning smaller numbers. The virus was always still there in large numbers.
Again with the mask issue, masks help to prevent spread only in conjunction with other measures but they may just be responsible for smaller viral loads at infection and therefore the lower hospitalisationrate and lower death rate, up to now. | |
| |
| Coronavirus mortality on 22:48 - Oct 9 with 1053 views | exhmrc1 |
| Coronavirus mortality on 22:14 - Oct 9 by Catullus |
Surely you cannot make a pro rata projection for a virus? As Andy says, we only had targeted testing previously, since we have widespread testing we are finding the virus was more widespread.
We know very many people are/were asymptomatic so only testing those with symptoms was obviously returning smaller numbers. The virus was always still there in large numbers.
Again with the mask issue, masks help to prevent spread only in conjunction with other measures but they may just be responsible for smaller viral loads at infection and therefore the lower hospitalisationrate and lower death rate, up to now. |
Perhaps you would like to explain why when there were more tests done in August there were less cases than today. Todays figure is almost 10 times the amount in August. This info is available form Public Health Wales Twitter page under daily figures. If you test 100 cases and find 1 case the likelyhood is you will find 100 for 1000. Why would anyone assume it would be more or less. The likelyhood is it will be less because you are originally testing people you think might have it who have reported symptoms. Going on random cases it is likely to be less.
If you find cases in a care home you then test the whole nursing home as it might have spread. The likelyhood is in another nursing home there wont be any. Similarly if you suspect students have cases you do mass testing. Random testing is likely to produce a far higher degree of negatives than targeted testing. That is the very reason for targeting otherwise it will be pointless. | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 23:48 - Oct 9 with 1037 views | controversial_jack |
| Coronavirus mortality on 19:50 - Oct 9 by exhmrc1 |
Increased testing doesnt give the reason for 8 cases in a day becoming 766 today. Even if testing had increased 5 fold it would only bring about 40 cases pro rata. There is far more coronavirus around now that there was 2 months ago. The real question is why and why it dropped hugely before and there is no doubt that it has occurred since our borders were opened, pubs were opened and students have gone to university. These are the reasons for the increase and the mask issue is a smokescreen. It came down with good social distancing, washing of hands and restricting movement when masks were not generally being worn, |
Testing has increased tremendously from earlier in the pandemic, but it's remained fairly consistent for the last week weeks. | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 01:39 - Oct 10 with 1024 views | Jack123 |
Be interesting to see what happens over the next 6 months or so, In my opinion it's all wrong the way they have dealt with this..
There are so many things that don't add up, I'm no scientist, but I can spot a scam a mile off,
Lock down this, lock down that, absolute bs..
I've been thinking this way inclined for ages, but what swayed it for me, was the video of the two sons pulling up chairs to comfort their mother, at their fathers funeral, and they got told off, and told to move back, yet like the son said, you can get close in a pub/restaurant..
Let's see the figures for the Welsh hospitals, that they reported on htv wales, think it was Wednesday, 21 deaths they said, from people who went to hospital without covid, in the Bridgend region? And then died.. Absolute guff, rubbish reporting, and scaremongering. |  |
| |
| Coronavirus mortality on 09:05 - Oct 10 with 973 views | exhmrc1 |
| Coronavirus mortality on 23:48 - Oct 9 by controversial_jack |
Testing has increased tremendously from earlier in the pandemic, but it's remained fairly consistent for the last week weeks. |
The argument that somehow if you test more you get more cases doesnt really add up. At the peak on 9 April there 391 positive cases from 902 tests. On 8 August at the lowest point there were 5 positive cases out of 1535 tests. The reason for this was on 9 April there was only testing in hospitals so a far larger degree of positive tests was had whereas in August it was more random testing which produced very few cases. | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 10:01 - Oct 10 with 968 views | onehunglow |
Reading this thread really does show we have no idea as to what to do.
So many opinions but only one Covid | |
| |
| Coronavirus mortality on 10:48 - Oct 10 with 958 views | Scotia |
| Coronavirus mortality on 21:28 - Oct 9 by exhmrc1 |
On 1 September there were 57 cases out of 6303 tests. Today there were more 496 cases out of less tests 5303. Nearly 10 times the amount with fewer tests. It doesnt follow that more tests mean you will catch a disproportionate amount of tests. That only happens if the virus is more prevalant ie there are more cases out there and more people are infected. Based on your theory you would expect there to be more positive tests on 1 September when in fact there were nearly 10 times less. |
There were over 12 thousand tests yesterday in Wales and over 9 thousand on Thursday. | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 11:05 - Oct 10 with 954 views | onehunglow |
Scotia.
My view is that life is effectively on hold until a vaccine is freely and safely available. | |
| |
| Coronavirus mortality on 11:25 - Oct 10 with 951 views | Highjack |
| Coronavirus mortality on 22:48 - Oct 9 by exhmrc1 |
Perhaps you would like to explain why when there were more tests done in August there were less cases than today. Todays figure is almost 10 times the amount in August. This info is available form Public Health Wales Twitter page under daily figures. If you test 100 cases and find 1 case the likelyhood is you will find 100 for 1000. Why would anyone assume it would be more or less. The likelyhood is it will be less because you are originally testing people you think might have it who have reported symptoms. Going on random cases it is likely to be less.
If you find cases in a care home you then test the whole nursing home as it might have spread. The likelyhood is in another nursing home there wont be any. Similarly if you suspect students have cases you do mass testing. Random testing is likely to produce a far higher degree of negatives than targeted testing. That is the very reason for targeting otherwise it will be pointless. |
How do you ethically test 95+ year old dementia sufferers who don’t know what’s going on? |  |
| |
| Coronavirus mortality on 11:27 - Oct 10 with 951 views | exhmrc1 |
| Coronavirus mortality on 10:48 - Oct 10 by Scotia |
There were over 12 thousand tests yesterday in Wales and over 9 thousand on Thursday. |
The figures I used were the actual testing dates as advised by PHW. Because of delays with reporting they show different amounts to the reporting figures. As an example yesterdays tests by testing date shows 1 new case from 2 October, 22 from 3 October, 12 from 4 October, 202 from 5 October, 366 from 6 October and 164 from 7 October. This is due to your beloved Pillar 2 tests being delayed. The system you have so actively supported. This along with actively supporting the opening borders and pubs which have led to spike in England, Wales and Scotland. It was you who suggested we should open pubs and control the virus. Being proven wrong on everything you suggest. | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 11:38 - Oct 10 with 948 views | exhmrc1 |
| Coronavirus mortality on 11:05 - Oct 10 by onehunglow |
Scotia.
My view is that life is effectively on hold until a vaccine is freely and safely available. |
This needn't have been the case had we not opened our borders and pubs. The PFW charts show absolutely clearly that the virus was decreasing. On 2 days in early August we had 5 and 8 new cases in Wales and it had been going down since April. Had we continued on the path we were taking for a month or possibly less we would almost totally have got rid of the virus like they have in Far Eastern and Australasian countries. They have experience of previous viruses and acted swiftly by not allowing visitors in. We didnt. We put the interests of the travel industry first and in so doing have caused problems for all our industries. This hasnt gone from 5 a day to 766 for nothing. It happened because the UK government took its eyes off the ball and tried to protect industries thinking like Scotia they could control the virus but it has backfired spectacularly. | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 11:51 - Oct 10 with 945 views | Scotia |
| Coronavirus mortality on 11:05 - Oct 10 by onehunglow |
Scotia.
My view is that life is effectively on hold until a vaccine is freely and safely available. |
Certainly as it was this time last year.
A decent test and trace system would help to, but we've missed the boat on that for this wave at least.
I can see us being in a series of local lockdowns for at least another nine months. | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 15:03 - Oct 10 with 906 views | Andy1300 |
| Coronavirus mortality on 21:16 - Oct 9 by onehunglow |
Andy.
We disagree here on this subject however,we still good? |
Absolutely, that’s what makes the world go around.
We are not a communist state yet.
We are not indoctrinated, however, plenty have been scared to death by the media! | |
| |
| Coronavirus mortality on 17:20 - Oct 10 with 880 views | onehunglow |
Good man,Andy.
Be lucky | |
| |
| Coronavirus mortality on 17:38 - Oct 11 with 808 views | A_Fans_Dad |
Prof.
What do you think of the latest Study from Australia that suggests that COVID-19 can survive up to 28 days on hard surfaces at a temperature of 20C. | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 17:41 - Oct 11 with 807 views | onehunglow |
Fan dad
What you think of Piers Corbyn-man of the peopl- suggeting we do not need masks,distancing,lockdown or vaccine.
For me,this man is promoting death for many | |
| |
| Coronavirus mortality on 17:53 - Oct 11 with 795 views | trampie |
Wouldn't have thought you would be too happy with Simon Calder then ? |  |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.