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The statistics locally tell a very different story. There were no deaths in Swansea Bay Health Board from the beginning of July to end of September. This was when the number of infections was very low. In the last 7 weeks there has been nearly a hundred covid deaths in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot alone and it is rising every day. This has happened when cases increased and is typical of figures in both Wales and throughout the UK.
Sorry, but that is no reason to call the ons statistics shyte.
Sorry, but that is no reason to call the ons statistics shyte.
The facts are just that. In September there were no deaths in Wales between 6 September to the 16 September and ONS statistics are sometimes 2 weeks out of date. Compare that with the last 5 days 34, 41, 23, 31 and 28. These would not be included in the ONS stats. This is why the R rate isnt a reflection of now but 2 weeks ago.
The facts are just that. In September there were no deaths in Wales between 6 September to the 16 September and ONS statistics are sometimes 2 weeks out of date. Compare that with the last 5 days 34, 41, 23, 31 and 28. These would not be included in the ONS stats. This is why the R rate isnt a reflection of now but 2 weeks ago.
And what were the daily Welsh rates during the March to June peak? Which is the point of the Mail article.
Never heard of him. He is a pharma person and certainly not an immunologist or infection person. There is a degree of cross reactivity between T cells produced to different infections. That rarely leads to functional immunity though. This is what most think has been happening. From other coronaviruses (pigs and chickens) which have been more closely studied for a long period and have vaccines, we know these responses are very specific to individual strains of virus. So it would seem highly unlikely since nearly everywhere (including Sweden) have had large second waves. Telegraph continues its anti-science, anti-lockdown approach.
Thank you for the reply Prof, I was reading the other day he compared himself to Vallance on his background..? God knows, I must admit, I seek solace in the likes of Yeadon and Ivor Cummings on twitter, most prob their facts are wrong as you have said, but it does make one feel a whole lot better.
There must be some good news out there, the wife is glued to the news, and her thinking at the moment, she doesn't want to go out till next year, around April.. :(
My point still stands, a vaccine was completed in March ready for trials, which presumably took months to formulate. How is that possible. Unless someone knew early doors or before, this virus was about to hit the fan.
And what were the daily Welsh rates during the March to June peak? Which is the point of the Mail article.
The rates of deaths in May to June were lower than they are currently. Here are the figures from May to the end of June. I dont hold the actual April figures. 12 5 16 22 10 9 18 12 4 17 14 9 7 6 7 7 8 11 14 10 14 11 5 7 17 8 4 10 5 3 9 9 6 10 6 3 4 8 10 5 4 1 1 1 5 8 6 2 5 2 3 3 6 8 2 5 1 0 3 4 2 0 1 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 2 4
Here are the figures for the last few weeks 44 30 13 32 19 8 22 45 34 29 20 16 2 34 41 23 31 28
As can be seen the deaths over the last couple of weeks have been far higher than May and June and this was even greater during July, August and September.
The rates of deaths in May to June were lower than they are currently. Here are the figures from May to the end of June. I dont hold the actual April figures. 12 5 16 22 10 9 18 12 4 17 14 9 7 6 7 7 8 11 14 10 14 11 5 7 17 8 4 10 5 3 9 9 6 10 6 3 4 8 10 5 4 1 1 1 5 8 6 2 5 2 3 3 6 8 2 5 1 0 3 4 2 0 1 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 2 4
Here are the figures for the last few weeks 44 30 13 32 19 8 22 45 34 29 20 16 2 34 41 23 31 28
As can be seen the deaths over the last couple of weeks have been far higher than May and June and this was even greater during July, August and September.
Of course they were lower, there were lockdowns and at is was spring/summer time. I accept that they have gone up, but the Mail experts are arguing that for England & Wales they are nowhere as high as the first wave, but the government reaction has been as if they were, courtesy of their so called expert's "predictions".
Of course they were lower, there were lockdowns and at is was spring/summer time. I accept that they have gone up, but the Mail experts are arguing that for England & Wales they are nowhere as high as the first wave, but the government reaction has been as if they were, courtesy of their so called expert's "predictions".
There is a graph on Public Health Wales twitter page that shows the rise recently is similar to the one in April. It slowed in May onwards and has shot up in recent weeks. From memory Swansea Bay had 206 deaths in the period from March to end of September. It has 308 as of today and is rising rapidly and probably will for the next few weeks so that is nearly 1/2 the deaths in the last 7 weeks that there was in the first 6 months. There is a graph under PHW Deaths on the link below which actually shows the rates of deaths. The early rate is April is largely similar to the current curve which is ongoing.
I mentioned a neighbour recently who wouldn't go out when this so called lockdown kicked in. Her mum died in the house last Wednesday. Covid apparently. Kids still going to school, dad's going to work. And she was in an open cask on Friday. Loads of family shuffling by. I imagine when your dead it's not contagious. It's a joke.
I mentioned a neighbour recently who wouldn't go out when this so called lockdown kicked in. Her mum died in the house last Wednesday. Covid apparently. Kids still going to school, dad's going to work. And she was in an open cask on Friday. Loads of family shuffling by. I imagine when your dead it's not contagious. It's a joke.
It's not the black death, a corpse wouldn't be contagious unless you kissed it
It's not the black death, a corpse wouldn't be contagious unless you kissed it
I would rather hear the opinions of the professor on that, if a 16 stone lump of skin was lying in my front room having died of the pandemic I think I would be slightly concerned. But you missed my point, she died of covid and before she went on life's other journey, she would have had covid.
Oxford AZ is just about 70% effective. Not as good as the others but its cheaper and easier logistics.
Hopefully most vulnerable will get the mrna versions and everyone else the Oxford one.
Sounds pretty good to me.
Agree.
Despite the not quite there yet levels of protection (which they expect to improve on rapidly), the long term utility of the Oxford Vaccine seems greater than the others so far. It was always expected that several different ones would be needed to meet all requirements so it's cracking news either way.
For me one of the few positives to come out of this entire situation is how quickly the boffins have worked this out and the lessons they can learn for the long term and other virus vaccination development. The RNA stuff particularly given how new that process is could have massive benefits.
Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back.
Oxford AZ is just about 70% effective. Not as good as the others but its cheaper and easier logistics.
Hopefully most vulnerable will get the mrna versions and everyone else the Oxford one.
Sounds pretty good to me.
The other interesting fact in the Oxford trial is if the first dose is a half dose and a second dose is a full dose then it is gives 90% protection which is the same as the other two vaccines.
Sounds like that would be a better way to roll it out twice as many people could have a half dose so the everyone could get could get vacinated quicker.
The other interesting fact in the Oxford trial is if the first dose is a half dose and a second dose is a full dose then it is gives 90% protection which is the same as the other two vaccines.
Sounds like that would be a better way to roll it out twice as many people could have a half dose so the everyone could get could get vacinated quicker.
There are also some unexplored options of a first dose with the Oxford vector vaccines and the second. With the RNA vaccines. This may lead to a breed T cell response. As said the Oxford vaccine is far more practical. May also give longer lived immunity
The other interesting fact in the Oxford trial is if the first dose is a half dose and a second dose is a full dose then it is gives 90% protection which is the same as the other two vaccines.
Sounds like that would be a better way to roll it out twice as many people could have a half dose so the everyone could get could get vacinated quicker.
Plus of those who have had the vaccine and have been unlucky enough to get covid, none have required hospital treatment let alone die.
I would rather hear the opinions of the professor on that, if a 16 stone lump of skin was lying in my front room having died of the pandemic I think I would be slightly concerned. But you missed my point, she died of covid and before she went on life's other journey, she would have had covid.
Just becomes a contaminated object- what we call a fomite. Not actively infectious but contact could lead to infection like any surface.
The statistics locally tell a very different story. There were no deaths in Swansea Bay Health Board from the beginning of July to end of September. This was when the number of infections was very low. In the last 7 weeks there has been nearly a hundred covid deaths in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot alone and it is rising every day. This has happened when cases increased and is typical of figures in both Wales and throughout the UK.
There are also some unexplored options of a first dose with the Oxford vector vaccines and the second. With the RNA vaccines. This may lead to a breed T cell response. As said the Oxford vaccine is far more practical. May also give longer lived immunity
Some reports that the 70% figure is an average of two methods. When administered in double doses the effectiveness appears to be above 90%.
Even if it's not as all protecting as the others it's worth having. If we think of the RNA vaccines as a Ferrari and the Oxford one as a Range Rover, the Ferrari might get further faster but the Range Rover will be cheaper, easier to maintain and far more use in the middle of nowhere.
[Post edited 23 Nov 2020 10:35]
Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back.
Stats are only as good as the person who compiles them. If they are compiled with an agenda in mind then they are useless, misleading and problematic. Tat's why I am suspicious of stats that are routinely adjusted.
This new Oxford Vax, easier to transport, cheaper, 70% effective at half dose...seems like the best option to me. The Pfizer one, it has to be transported quicly at minus 70, or is it minus 80? It just seems too hard when you consider 70% is a higher rate than the flu jab most years. The pfizer jab, it would have to be manufactred and pretty much sent straight to GP's surgeries and given out more or less as it arrived. Any delay could cause problems, it seems to me. If it was out of cold storage and people weren't there to have it, would it be useless very quickly?
I would rather hear the opinions of the professor on that, if a 16 stone lump of skin was lying in my front room having died of the pandemic I think I would be slightly concerned. But you missed my point, she died of covid and before she went on life's other journey, she would have had covid.
Well she’s not breathing so she wouldn’t be expelling any droplets. Although it’s not unheard of for a corpse to suddenly gasp or even let out a massive fart as gases inside build up and suddenly escape. Just stick a mask on her and you’ll all be safe.
The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
Well she’s not breathing so she wouldn’t be expelling any droplets. Although it’s not unheard of for a corpse to suddenly gasp or even let out a massive fart as gases inside build up and suddenly escape. Just stick a mask on her and you’ll all be safe.
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