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Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 275835 viewsSgorioFruit

Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy.

My methods are not favoured by some but by god i speak the truth.
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Corona Virus on 23:27 - Mar 17 with 1178 viewsWingstandwood

Corona Virus on 23:01 - Mar 17 by Dr_Winston

We did already know that.

The overwhelming majority of people who contract this will feel nothing more than the effects of a heavy cold. Most probably won't even realise that they've had it.

It's the 1-2% of people who it will hit worse that we're worried about.


I read your personal circumstances regarding this situation a short while back. I'm in a similar situation myself, I'm (from previous experience) soon to go into tunnel vision mode and get inner strength from what I assume is that reserve tank hidden somewhere in my subconscious.

I shall be inspired, emboldened and toughened by the example and deeds of (I know a few) remarkable NHS foot soldiers and others.
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Corona Virus on 00:04 - Mar 18 with 1112 viewshobo

Coronavirus fatality rate, Italy:

10.1% - Lombardy
10.0% - Emilia-Romagna
7.7% - Liguria
7.6% - Friuli VG
7.0% - Piedmont
5.3% - Puglia
5.0% - Marche
3.8% - Lazio
3.0% - Veneto
1.6% - Tuscany

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Corona Virus on 09:30 - Mar 18 with 972 viewsmonmouth

Corona Virus on 23:15 - Mar 17 by Catullus

An unfortunate turn of phrase but nobody sensible would think he was making jokes about it.


No he’d never say anything like squashing that sombrero.

He’s shitting his pants but his nature is still narcissistic egocentric obsession and wanting to be loved and applauded. He’ll only see this in term as of the effect on him. He’ll think he’s Churchill soon with all his war metaphors. Entirely the wrong man to have at the helm.

Not that it matters that much now. The course is set.

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Corona Virus on 09:53 - Mar 18 with 950 viewsladyjack

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Corona Virus on 09:56 - Mar 18 with 946 viewsladyjack

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Corona Virus on 10:02 - Mar 18 with 929 viewsladyjack



To a certain degree we have seen a population led lockdown, with sporting bodies shutting down and some people not going pubs etc
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Corona Virus on 11:00 - Mar 18 with 856 viewsladyjack


Doesn't make great reading.
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Corona Virus on 11:19 - Mar 18 with 841 viewsExiledJack

Corona Virus on 22:54 - Mar 17 by ploppy

You can't educate pork but you crack on. You ever modelled anything? I have.


For balance, as someone who has been educated and worked in this field (maths/data analytics/modelling) my view and the consensus among peers aligns with AFD.

I’m unconvinced as to the benefit of modelling in the current predicament, other than as a tool to onboard those that need convincing. The exponential growth rate of infections, coupled with the high percentage of cases that require hospital treatment, is all that matters (i.e. the seriousness was evident from observation and didn’t require modelling). Isolation and distancing will be crucial in breaking the spread of transmission.

In the UK we can count ourselves lucky to have not been amongst the poor souls of other nations that have been afflicted sooner by this outbreak, and have been afforded precious time to act.

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Corona Virus on 11:33 - Mar 18 with 813 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Corona Virus on 22:54 - Mar 17 by ploppy

You can't educate pork but you crack on. You ever modelled anything? I have.


I only have one thing to say to you.
Boeing 737 Max.
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Corona Virus on 11:37 - Mar 18 with 804 viewsladyjack

Corona Virus on 11:19 - Mar 18 by ExiledJack

For balance, as someone who has been educated and worked in this field (maths/data analytics/modelling) my view and the consensus among peers aligns with AFD.

I’m unconvinced as to the benefit of modelling in the current predicament, other than as a tool to onboard those that need convincing. The exponential growth rate of infections, coupled with the high percentage of cases that require hospital treatment, is all that matters (i.e. the seriousness was evident from observation and didn’t require modelling). Isolation and distancing will be crucial in breaking the spread of transmission.

In the UK we can count ourselves lucky to have not been amongst the poor souls of other nations that have been afflicted sooner by this outbreak, and have been afforded precious time to act.


The worry for me is that we might be wasting this time we have had to react.
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Corona Virus on 11:38 - Mar 18 with 799 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Corona Virus on 21:57 - Mar 17 by PozuelosSideys

Nonsense. He is talking about some serious data analytics. The world has moved on from your interpretation. The scenario planning will change and evolve as the dataset increases, is amended and the scientists learn more about the qualitative effects and impacts, not just the quants.

This is complex work which evolves rapidly. What is a suitable response/answer today will turn out to be nonsense tomorrow when we learn more. There are also additional things to think about. How do you know a more aggressive, quarantine approach in the UK wont have a significantly negative impact on the population? How do you think the population will react to being banged up at home for 6 months solid? This is crisis management. Never mind though, you stick to your idiocy and directing people to old wives tales and fake herbal remedies.


I am sure you will exuse me if I am not impressed by your stupid witticism regarding "old wives tales and fake herbal remedies. ".
The information I presented is based on emperical data from Medical Case Studies and Scientific Studies based on real life data in other countries.
Of course to someone like you that is obviously too difficult a concept to grasp.
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Corona Virus on 11:44 - Mar 18 with 779 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Corona Virus on 11:37 - Mar 18 by ladyjack

The worry for me is that we might be wasting this time we have had to react.


We did.

I am still amazed that there is nothing official in the UK about medicines that work or not.
The UK information has only just been changed re NSAIDs use with COV19.

It couldn't be that the good medical news is being suppressed due to the absolute fortunes to be made by the first vaccines to be produced, could it?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8123691/With-estimated-477-injection-po

After all the drugs that are being shown to work are already in the system and in the case of Quinine based ones they cost pennies.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8125513/Drug-used-treat-flu-Japan-clear
[Post edited 18 Mar 11:48]
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Corona Virus on 11:59 - Mar 18 with 764 viewsCatullus

Corona Virus on 09:30 - Mar 18 by monmouth

No he’d never say anything like squashing that sombrero.

He’s shitting his pants but his nature is still narcissistic egocentric obsession and wanting to be loved and applauded. He’ll only see this in term as of the effect on him. He’ll think he’s Churchill soon with all his war metaphors. Entirely the wrong man to have at the helm.

Not that it matters that much now. The course is set.


Bojo is undoubtedly a prize tvvat but while insulting minorities is one thing it is entirely different to making jokes about something where thousands of people will die...or maybe Bojo really is that stupid, but I doubt it. Even Cummings wouldn't go so far as to joke about this, not publicly anyway.

Saying he wants to be loved and applauded is actually a very good argument why he wouldn't be making jokes about this because if 20,000 do die that's a whole lot of offended relatives and friends who wouldn't easily forget.

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
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Corona Virus on 12:04 - Mar 18 with 752 viewssherpajacob

Corona Virus on 10:02 - Mar 18 by ladyjack



To a certain degree we have seen a population led lockdown, with sporting bodies shutting down and some people not going pubs etc


the stats are interesting. As she says testing is only hospital admissions, so you would think that this sub set of the population are the most likely to test positive.

Yet something like 97% of those tested have tested negative.
[Post edited 18 Mar 12:05]

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Corona Virus on 12:13 - Mar 18 with 734 viewsCatullus

Corona Virus on 11:38 - Mar 18 by A_Fans_Dad

I am sure you will exuse me if I am not impressed by your stupid witticism regarding "old wives tales and fake herbal remedies. ".
The information I presented is based on emperical data from Medical Case Studies and Scientific Studies based on real life data in other countries.
Of course to someone like you that is obviously too difficult a concept to grasp.


Again, I am no expert but from a previous comment, garbage in garbage out, isn't the problem with modelling a lack of accurate data to model from?

As the statistics keep coming in, as the data flow is updated will the modelling become more accurate?

Isn't the real problem that this is an unprecedented occurence in our lifetimes and an ever changing situation which is hard to keep up with let alone get ahead of?

The chance to get ahead of it was lost when the Chinese tried to hide it yet now some are lauding the Chinese for their openness when we know a month was lost.

It rankles that some are still trying to score political points when this is way more important. This isn't a little englander thing, this is global.

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
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Corona Virus on 12:32 - Mar 18 with 706 viewsSwansea93

Just had a text to say my sons school will be closed from Friday until further notice, Sainthelens on here did say his wife had the heads up schools would close by next week.

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Corona Virus on 12:41 - Mar 18 with 688 viewsploppy

Corona Virus on 11:33 - Mar 18 by A_Fans_Dad

I only have one thing to say to you.
Boeing 737 Max.


Not the same. That was the result of engineering shortcuts.
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Corona Virus on 12:42 - Mar 18 with 681 viewssherpajacob

Corona Virus on 12:32 - Mar 18 by Swansea93

Just had a text to say my sons school will be closed from Friday until further notice, Sainthelens on here did say his wife had the heads up schools would close by next week.


I know lots of parents keeping their kids off school now, not wanting to put their little one at risk.

The number of children aged under 10 who have died so far from coronavirus worldwide is zero.

I appreciate there is risk to teachers etc, but closing the schools so that kids go and spend time with their grandparents doesn't make sense to me.

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Corona Virus on 12:44 - Mar 18 with 677 viewsCountyJim

Corona Virus on 12:32 - Mar 18 by Swansea93

Just had a text to say my sons school will be closed from Friday until further notice, Sainthelens on here did say his wife had the heads up schools would close by next week.


What happens if one parent has to take time off do they get paid
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Corona Virus on 12:45 - Mar 18 with 674 viewsCatullus

Corona Virus on 12:32 - Mar 18 by Swansea93

Just had a text to say my sons school will be closed from Friday until further notice, Sainthelens on here did say his wife had the heads up schools would close by next week.


A lot of kids were missing from my sons class yesterday and we kept him home today. The school was prepared for this though and I have had todays school work sent to me online. An essay to be written, a powerpoint presentation that is to be done over the week, filmed and sent in electronically on Friday and links to online resources for Maths.

We can do this. Hell it may even improve our relatioships with our kids...or ruin them completely! We might learn something ourselves.

Seeing as most of us have laptops, computers etc, maybe teachers can do lessons by Skype? It seems inevitable that schools will soon be closed. Some schools already are and others are only allowing kids in who are taking exams this year.

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
Blog: In, Out, in, out........

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Corona Virus on 12:46 - Mar 18 with 671 viewsploppy

Corona Virus on 11:19 - Mar 18 by ExiledJack

For balance, as someone who has been educated and worked in this field (maths/data analytics/modelling) my view and the consensus among peers aligns with AFD.

I’m unconvinced as to the benefit of modelling in the current predicament, other than as a tool to onboard those that need convincing. The exponential growth rate of infections, coupled with the high percentage of cases that require hospital treatment, is all that matters (i.e. the seriousness was evident from observation and didn’t require modelling). Isolation and distancing will be crucial in breaking the spread of transmission.

In the UK we can count ourselves lucky to have not been amongst the poor souls of other nations that have been afflicted sooner by this outbreak, and have been afforded precious time to act.


In that case why model at all, Neil Ferguson included? He certainly wasn't "onboarding". You know the answer though. Without modelling and simulation, we're just wild guessing in all sorts of domains.
[Post edited 18 Mar 12:49]
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Corona Virus on 12:50 - Mar 18 with 661 viewsmagicdaps10

Corona Virus on 00:04 - Mar 18 by hobo

Coronavirus fatality rate, Italy:

10.1% - Lombardy
10.0% - Emilia-Romagna
7.7% - Liguria
7.6% - Friuli VG
7.0% - Piedmont
5.3% - Puglia
5.0% - Marche
3.8% - Lazio
3.0% - Veneto
1.6% - Tuscany


For confirmed cases, that will be far lower in reality.

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Corona Virus on 12:53 - Mar 18 with 652 viewsSwansea93

Corona Virus on 12:44 - Mar 18 by CountyJim

What happens if one parent has to take time off do they get paid


Yeah this worries me, I don't get sick pay from work only the ssp as alot of people, and with a mortgage to pay and a 5 year old and a baby on the way it's a very stressful time.

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Corona Virus on 12:56 - Mar 18 with 644 viewsCatullus

Corona Virus on 12:50 - Mar 18 by magicdaps10

For confirmed cases, that will be far lower in reality.


They will probably never know the accurate percentages because they are not testing everybody. The models will never be close to accurate for that reason so it's guesswork. In countries where there is more testing the numbers will be closer, or so I believe. Someone feel free to correct me.

Just my opinion, but WTF do I know anyway?
Blog: In, Out, in, out........

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Corona Virus on 13:05 - Mar 18 with 620 viewshobo

Corona Virus on 12:50 - Mar 18 by magicdaps10

For confirmed cases, that will be far lower in reality.


Also doesn't include the people that have died before they are able to get medical treatment or testing

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