| Coronavirus mortality 23:32 - Oct 2 with 16370 views | Professor |
Let’s put a true perspective on this. 99.5% of people survive. Well maybe, though probably closer to 99%. Imagine a full house at the Liberty.
Imagine as you go out a line of 120 people (maybe 240). They are executed.
That is a 0.5% mortality rate.
It’s not a binary disease either. More will have long term illness.
Just think about that.
This is not supporting a lockdown or any other specific intervention. Just a reality check. By the way flu has a 0.1% mortality rate. |  | | |  |
| Coronavirus mortality on 19:36 - Oct 4 with 2001 views | exhmrc1 |
| Coronavirus mortality on 19:31 - Oct 4 by Professor |
Not for some. But of course they do |
Odd set of figures for Wales today. Over 1/4 of the new cases were resident outside Wales. I assume most of these are students. Rates in North Wales have rocketed. 99 today whilst every health board in South Wales is showing lower figures than last Sunday. Apparently there are still 2000 tests missing from lighthouse labs in England. | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 00:16 - Oct 5 with 1915 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Coronavirus mortality on 18:59 - Oct 4 by controversial_jack |
So that makes it acceptable? The old and sick don't count? |
So you think we should be in a permanent state of lockdown and we should have been ever since you were born?
I mean flu kills thousands of old people and sick people.
Or don’t they matter to you?
(Leftist emotional logic). |  |
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| Coronavirus mortality on 10:52 - Oct 5 with 1851 views | britferry |
new 16,000 spike in cases but its all down to an Excel spreadsheet not updating  | |
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| Coronavirus mortality on 11:32 - Oct 5 with 1846 views | onehunglow |
This not flu as we know it. This week I’m off for a flu jab.The world is effectively on hold until we get one for COVID .
It’s that simple.
We are squabbling in the dirt like the clowns we all are as a society. | |
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| Coronavirus mortality on 11:50 - Oct 5 with 1841 views | controversial_jack |
| Coronavirus mortality on 00:16 - Oct 5 by Dr_Parnassus |
So you think we should be in a permanent state of lockdown and we should have been ever since you were born?
I mean flu kills thousands of old people and sick people.
Or don’t they matter to you?
(Leftist emotional logic). |
This is nothing like the flu.There is also a vaccine for that - if it works | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 11:52 - Oct 5 with 1839 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Coronavirus mortality on 11:32 - Oct 5 by onehunglow |
This not flu as we know it. This week I’m off for a flu jab.The world is effectively on hold until we get one for COVID .
It’s that simple.
We are squabbling in the dirt like the clowns we all are as a society. |
I have just responded to Groo for spouting the same nonsense.
Have you ever bothered to look at the Mortality rates of other countries.
How the hell do you think they managed to achieve mortality rates 1/10 and less than the UK without a vaccine.
Because that is exactly what the have done. | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 11:58 - Oct 5 with 1833 views | controversial_jack |
| Coronavirus mortality on 11:52 - Oct 5 by A_Fans_Dad |
I have just responded to Groo for spouting the same nonsense.
Have you ever bothered to look at the Mortality rates of other countries.
How the hell do you think they managed to achieve mortality rates 1/10 and less than the UK without a vaccine.
Because that is exactly what the have done. |
There's no easy answer. treatment may be different, demographics different, mask wearing which reduces the viral load, access to health care etc.
On average i'm seeing a mortality rate of 1%, which is higher than flu which has one of 0.1%
Flu, doesn't kill healthy young health and care workers , or doesn't leave patients with long term conditions.No comparison whatsoever! | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 12:08 - Oct 5 with 1829 views | onehunglow |
Im with contro here.
Trump said this was just flu albeit China flu
We ve not faced this before as a society.World wide.
There is no right nor wrong way.
People have to wise up first and that means uniting,which means
Masks compulsory and enforced and a government prepared to get brutal with those who spread this cure.
Labour can help here by supporting the national cause | |
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| Coronavirus mortality on 12:14 - Oct 5 with 1820 views | britferry |
and the poor strip clubs in Cardiff, the girls have to wear PPE when they dance now... apparently
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/
Plus Dirty Des from Rhiwbina doesn't like having to leave his details when he goes in, so thats hitting trade and whats more it now closes at 10pm, he normally has to wait til his wife goes to sleep but she's never in bed that early | |
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| Coronavirus mortality on 12:15 - Oct 5 with 1824 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Coronavirus mortality on 12:08 - Oct 5 by onehunglow |
Im with contro here.
Trump said this was just flu albeit China flu
We ve not faced this before as a society.World wide.
There is no right nor wrong way.
People have to wise up first and that means uniting,which means
Masks compulsory and enforced and a government prepared to get brutal with those who spread this cure.
Labour can help here by supporting the national cause |
I agree there are lots of variables, but the best performing countries have shown the west how to do it from the start.
The west learned nothing and went their own way, too slow, too little and most often the wrong choices as well. | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 12:18 - Oct 5 with 1823 views | Professor |
| Coronavirus mortality on 12:15 - Oct 5 by A_Fans_Dad |
I agree there are lots of variables, but the best performing countries have shown the west how to do it from the start.
The west learned nothing and went their own way, too slow, too little and most often the wrong choices as well. |
And that we can agree on | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 12:20 - Oct 5 with 1822 views | onehunglow |
Yep,this virus ha certainly rocked our complacent society to its core.
We all take life ,as we know it for granted.
I believe people are in denial when they should be fronting up to this.
Sadly,others will die of other diseases becasue of covid but ,as I said previously, cancer develops within you whereas you catch covid from another. | |
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| Coronavirus mortality on 12:21 - Oct 5 with 1822 views | controversial_jack |
| Coronavirus mortality on 12:14 - Oct 5 by britferry |
and the poor strip clubs in Cardiff, the girls have to wear PPE when they dance now... apparently
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/
Plus Dirty Des from Rhiwbina doesn't like having to leave his details when he goes in, so thats hitting trade and whats more it now closes at 10pm, he normally has to wait til his wife goes to sleep but she's never in bed that early |
Apparently, the ladies in Amsterdam used some kind of transparent shield when sucking off punters. | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 12:30 - Oct 5 with 1816 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Coronavirus mortality on 12:20 - Oct 5 by onehunglow |
Yep,this virus ha certainly rocked our complacent society to its core.
We all take life ,as we know it for granted.
I believe people are in denial when they should be fronting up to this.
Sadly,others will die of other diseases becasue of covid but ,as I said previously, cancer develops within you whereas you catch covid from another. |
Are you sure about your quote on Cancer?
They are not all the same, Cervical cancer in particular is apparently spread by no less than a virus.
Could it be that other forms are "spread", but we don't know how? | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 13:17 - Oct 5 with 1808 views | onehunglow |
As regards breast cancer yes.
As to you point,I thank you and it's made me think.
Do you know if thi cancer can be caught from another person by simply touching or by coming into contact with a surface infected by a carrier
Thanks. | |
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| Coronavirus mortality on 13:35 - Oct 5 with 1798 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Coronavirus mortality on 11:50 - Oct 5 by controversial_jack |
This is nothing like the flu.There is also a vaccine for that - if it works |
Makes no difference, your point was that people are dying from a virus and those that are saying it only really affects a small minority of people so shouldn’t force the country to stop... you responded (a few times) with “so don’t they matter then”.
So my question is don’t the thousands of people dying every year from flu matter? I’m sure those that die from flu don’t care if “it’s nothing like Covid”.
So should we be in a permanent state of lockdown in order to save those tens of thousands of flu deaths? | |
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| Coronavirus mortality on 13:40 - Oct 5 with 1797 views | Andy1300 |
| Coronavirus mortality on 13:17 - Oct 5 by onehunglow |
As regards breast cancer yes.
As to you point,I thank you and it's made me think.
Do you know if thi cancer can be caught from another person by simply touching or by coming into contact with a surface infected by a carrier
Thanks. |
They are now saying that you can’t catch covid off door handles. What’s your point? |  |
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| Coronavirus mortality on 13:41 - Oct 5 with 1794 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Coronavirus mortality on 12:30 - Oct 5 by A_Fans_Dad |
Are you sure about your quote on Cancer?
They are not all the same, Cervical cancer in particular is apparently spread by no less than a virus.
Could it be that other forms are "spread", but we don't know how? |
Cervical cancer has vastly reduced where people are vaccinated before puberty. | |
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| Coronavirus mortality on 14:43 - Oct 5 with 1775 views | Groo |
| Coronavirus mortality on 11:52 - Oct 5 by A_Fans_Dad |
I have just responded to Groo for spouting the same nonsense.
Have you ever bothered to look at the Mortality rates of other countries.
How the hell do you think they managed to achieve mortality rates 1/10 and less than the UK without a vaccine.
Because that is exactly what the have done. |
"Numerous contributing causes have been mooted for the discrepancy in various individual countries: lower life expectancy meaning fewer vulnerable elderly people still alive, lower population density, fewer flights to China, lower testing rates or even just sheer luck. The obligatory wearing of masks outdoors, now common to much of Europe, was implemented very early on by the Czech Republic and Slovakia and may also have helped stop the spread.
The most important reason, however, seems to be the early lockdown implemented by almost all countries in the region. While in Britain and other western European nations, public events and gatherings were still going on in the second and third weeks of March, in central and eastern Europe, governments saw what was happening in Italy and implemented rapid lockdowns."
https://www.theguardian.com/wo
1. Younger populations
2. Cultural distance
3. Environment
4. Governments' response
https://www.advisory.com/daily
The first time I went to Japan with my wife, 20 odd years ago, one of the tgings I noticed was people wearing masks. I asked why and she said those people may have a cold. It was common, even then, for people to wear masks when they were feeling ill.
In UK, thousands of people were arriving from danger areas, no checks at the airport, no isolation and going into highly populated regions. Can't think why it spread so much. |  |
| Groo does what Groo does best |
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| Coronavirus mortality on 14:44 - Oct 5 with 1774 views | Groo |
| Coronavirus mortality on 13:40 - Oct 5 by Andy1300 |
They are now saying that you can’t catch covid off door handles. What’s your point? |
They've said that from the beginning. | |
| Groo does what Groo does best |
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| Coronavirus mortality on 14:46 - Oct 5 with 1772 views | onehunglow |
Well,they're catching off somebody. | |
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| Coronavirus mortality on 15:04 - Oct 5 with 1762 views | Groo |
| Coronavirus mortality on 13:35 - Oct 5 by Dr_Parnassus |
Makes no difference, your point was that people are dying from a virus and those that are saying it only really affects a small minority of people so shouldn’t force the country to stop... you responded (a few times) with “so don’t they matter then”.
So my question is don’t the thousands of people dying every year from flu matter? I’m sure those that die from flu don’t care if “it’s nothing like Covid”.
So should we be in a permanent state of lockdown in order to save those tens of thousands of flu deaths? |
So are you arguing we should lockdown for flu season.
For flu, there is a vaccination. Its not perfect but it does reduce the risk. If you like its the equivalent to wearing masks and being socially distanced.
For COVID, there is no vaccination, so masks and socially distancing are required and further measures such as lockdown in areas where its prevalent.
When a vaccine is available for COVID, I'm sure it will be treated the same as flu. Maybe a lesson learned is during flu season masks and distancing should still be done. | |
| Groo does what Groo does best |
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| Coronavirus mortality on 15:06 - Oct 5 with 1761 views | A_Fans_Dad |
Are the UK government using the wrong COVID metric for their decision making?
Back in March & April most positive cases were found on hospitalisation.
During that period mortality rates were over 15%.
The overall mortality rate has dropped to 8.8% due to so many positive cases found during the extensive testing process.
The current mortality rate for the last month is 801 deaths/158814 cases which is 0.5%.
So, although case counts are much higher than the initial wave, deaths are below the level of most other serious deseases.
The other point is that hospitalisations during the first wave were a very high percentage of cases.
Between April 1st and June 1st cases = 223638, Hospitalisations = 114507 which equals 51%.
The last month we have had 158814 cases and 7077 Hospitalisations which is only 4.5%.
Less than 1/10 of the Hospitalisations rate during the first wave.
So the government is applying the same kind of lockdowns used for 51% Hospitalisations and 15% mortality to a period where we have only 4.5% Hospitalisations and 0.5% mortality.
It looks like a massive over reaction by comparison. [Post edited 5 Oct 2020 16:22]
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| Coronavirus mortality on 15:47 - Oct 5 with 1755 views | Scotia |
| Coronavirus mortality on 15:06 - Oct 5 by A_Fans_Dad |
Are the UK government using the wrong COVID metric for their decision making?
Back in March & April most positive cases were found on hospitalisation.
During that period mortality rates were over 15%.
The overall mortality rate has dropped to 8.8% due to so many positive cases found during the extensive testing process.
The current mortality rate for the last month is 801 deaths/158814 cases which is 0.5%.
So, although case counts are much higher than the initial wave, deaths are below the level of most other serious deseases.
The other point is that hospitalisations during the first wave were a very high percentage of cases.
Between April 1st and June 1st cases = 223638, Hospitalisations = 114507 which equals 51%.
The last month we have had 158814 cases and 7077 Hospitalisations which is only 4.5%.
Less than 1/10 of the Hospitalisations rate during the first wave.
So the government is applying the same kind of lockdowns used for 51% Hospitalisations and 15% mortality to a period where we have only 4.5% Hospitalisations and 0.5% mortality.
It looks like a massive over reaction by comparison. [Post edited 5 Oct 2020 16:22]
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I don't think there is a more reliable metric they can use because test and trace has been shown to be an utter farce.
We have a better idea of how many true cases there are in the community than back in March but we still can't be certain, what we do know is that testing in the spring / early summer was woefully inadequate. I suspect that this is the kind of lockdown sceanrio we should really have been in from end of February / early March, to hopefully avoid the full lockdown and deaths.
I suppose this is just damage limitation rather than an overeaction - my personal feeling is that the Government are looking to get some form of control by Christmas. If they haven't by that point I think Boris et al are finished. | | | |
| Coronavirus mortality on 16:32 - Oct 5 with 1744 views | Professor |
| Coronavirus mortality on 15:47 - Oct 5 by Scotia |
I don't think there is a more reliable metric they can use because test and trace has been shown to be an utter farce.
We have a better idea of how many true cases there are in the community than back in March but we still can't be certain, what we do know is that testing in the spring / early summer was woefully inadequate. I suspect that this is the kind of lockdown sceanrio we should really have been in from end of February / early March, to hopefully avoid the full lockdown and deaths.
I suppose this is just damage limitation rather than an overeaction - my personal feeling is that the Government are looking to get some form of control by Christmas. If they haven't by that point I think Boris et al are finished. |
Tim Spector's model which adds reported symptoms via an app plus the PCR tests is pretty good Scotia
https://covid.joinzoe.com | | | |
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