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Have the government failed? 08:00 - Apr 27 with 23960 viewsRiscaJack

Can the more educated posters on this forum give me some opinions on this?

For me it looks like a complete disgrace from the start, no leadership, promises not kept, flights still coming into country from badly hit parts of world, using the excuse of "scientific advice" for not postponing the likes of Cheltenham Festival, Liverpool v Madrid, music gigs. We watched what was happening in Italy, I just can't find any excuses for them.

JENKINS OUT

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Have the government failed? on 14:21 - Apr 28 with 885 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 13:49 - Apr 28 by Professor

The antibody tests are still poor. The ones the UK sourced lack sensitivity and many used in the US specificity. We need to be careful we are not picking up coronavirus infections associated with colds too.


Hopefully there will be some leverage to change WHO, which does some good work, but never wants to turnover the apple cart either-even when needed


My understanding is that the current tests are, although not completely accurate, far better than those originally sourced. Reports suggest something like 85% -90% accuracy, so not accurate enough for an individual, but accurate enough for a population.

That’s consistent with the latest from Whitty on the subject as well.

The 20,000 people test currently underway in the UK is expected to be accurate enough to give a good estimate across the population (or so the literature says).

Similarly in the New York testing apparently.
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Have the government failed? on 14:41 - Apr 28 with 845 viewsJoe_bradshaw

Have the government failed? on 14:10 - Apr 28 by Professor

There is a difference between immune and immune response. ~There are examples where there is a strong immune response (especially antibody) but not immune protection. HIV is the classic example. One of the bugs I work on (Campylobacter) produce strong antibody responses but does not stop the bug persisting.

The second issue is that vaccines can either prevent disease or prevent infection. In the former the infection can still be carried, transmit and become more virulent,

So yes, there are of limited value


Do you know whether the current vaccine trials are for those that aim to prevent disease or infection?

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Have the government failed? on 14:44 - Apr 28 with 833 viewsProfessor

Have the government failed? on 14:41 - Apr 28 by Joe_bradshaw

Do you know whether the current vaccine trials are for those that aim to prevent disease or infection?


No. I have been trying to find out. Detail is scarce
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Have the government failed? on 14:47 - Apr 28 with 829 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 14:41 - Apr 28 by Joe_bradshaw

Do you know whether the current vaccine trials are for those that aim to prevent disease or infection?


The reports say that it prevented infection in the monkeys even though they were exposed to very high levels of the virus?

It’s been 28 days now and the 6 monkeys haven’t caught the disease (unlike all of the control group). Let’s hope we are all as money like as possible.
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Have the government failed? on 14:47 - Apr 28 with 824 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 14:44 - Apr 28 by Professor

No. I have been trying to find out. Detail is scarce


The details of the monkey testing are all available? It says they haven’t been infected?
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Have the government failed? on 14:53 - Apr 28 with 815 viewsProfessor

Have the government failed? on 14:21 - Apr 28 by londonlisa2001

My understanding is that the current tests are, although not completely accurate, far better than those originally sourced. Reports suggest something like 85% -90% accuracy, so not accurate enough for an individual, but accurate enough for a population.

That’s consistent with the latest from Whitty on the subject as well.

The 20,000 people test currently underway in the UK is expected to be accurate enough to give a good estimate across the population (or so the literature says).

Similarly in the New York testing apparently.


There are much more reliable antibody assays that can show specific responses including Western Blots and titred ELISA (Enzyme Linked ImmmunoSorbent Assay), but they don't lend themselves to more than a few hundred tests a day. I would guess these can easily achieve 95% plus accuracy. The rapid, lateral flow tests are based on the same principles as ELISA but are much less precise, accurate or sensitive as a whole. You tend to lose specificity with increased sensitivity and vice versa. They are useful -especially for rapid diagnostics but usually need a confirmatory test. So yes, if they have 80% accuracy it is not great for a person as they have 1 in 5 chance of a wrong call, but for surveillance of 20000 samples with a 50% prevalence -you will get a result of somewhere between 8000 and 12000 which in showing an idea of prevalence is fine if you are being pragmatic to say we have a lot or little infection
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Have the government failed? on 14:53 - Apr 28 with 813 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 15:32 - Apr 27 by WxmJax

I just googled it. We should have shut down even earlier. Not putting people arriving at Heathrow, etc in to quarantine immediately tells you all you need to know what this government are doing. Have a look at this.

https://time.com/5824836/greece-coronavirus/


You are absolutley correct about Greece, they did what was required starting when they had just 3 cases.
However they did have a major advantage over the UK, Spain & Italy, their first case was the 26th of February, about a month after the others, so they had an extra month to see just how bad it would get if you let it.
They also put hotspots in total quarantine, as well as shutting down air & sea travel to and from countries with major outbreaks.
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Have the government failed? on 14:56 - Apr 28 with 802 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 14:53 - Apr 28 by Professor

There are much more reliable antibody assays that can show specific responses including Western Blots and titred ELISA (Enzyme Linked ImmmunoSorbent Assay), but they don't lend themselves to more than a few hundred tests a day. I would guess these can easily achieve 95% plus accuracy. The rapid, lateral flow tests are based on the same principles as ELISA but are much less precise, accurate or sensitive as a whole. You tend to lose specificity with increased sensitivity and vice versa. They are useful -especially for rapid diagnostics but usually need a confirmatory test. So yes, if they have 80% accuracy it is not great for a person as they have 1 in 5 chance of a wrong call, but for surveillance of 20000 samples with a 50% prevalence -you will get a result of somewhere between 8000 and 12000 which in showing an idea of prevalence is fine if you are being pragmatic to say we have a lot or little infection


That’s the assumption underlying the mass testing that’s started here as I understand it. Although the accuracy is supposed to be higher than 80% for the test being carried out.

I believe the testing that’s been done in New York is similar. Albeit the figures produced seem very high to me for NYC.
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Have the government failed? on 15:22 - Apr 28 with 766 viewsBytholWyn

I think the stick that the WHO is getting on here is a bit misguided. Yes, there are a number of legitimate grievances about it's leadership during this crisis but it's easy to forget the excellent work done on the ground over the decades, which has probably saved us from pandemics worse than the current one. Also, to understand the WHO's failings you need to understand the context. This excellent article in the Guardian provides that context:

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/apr/10/world-health-organization-who-v-cor

This paragraph sums things up pretty well:

"For all the responsibility vested in the WHO, it has little power. Unlike international bodies such as the World Trade Organization, the WHO, which is a specialised body of the UN, has no ability to bind or sanction its members. Its annual operating budget, about $2bn in 2019, is smaller than that of many university hospitals, and split among a dizzying array of public health and research projects. The WHO is less like a military general or elected leader with a strong mandate, and more like an underpaid sports coach wary of “losing the dressing room”, who can only get their way by charming, grovelling, cajoling and occasionally pleading with the players to do as they say."

Anyone who's watched the superb Pandemic docmentary series on Netflix (effectively a Trailer for the current pandemic) will have a grasp on the excellent work done by the WHO on the ground. The stupidest thing possible is to decrease its funding (which is why Trump has done just that). It needs to be given more resources and the political instruments to wield power effectively. Not that that will happen - which is why I think there's every chance that worse pandemics will happen sooner rather than later.
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Have the government failed? on 15:31 - Apr 28 with 751 viewsjack2jack

Have the government failed? on 13:30 - Apr 28 by Swanjaxs

Point well made mate!

Get yourself back in as well, you have an opinion and you shouldn't feel that you have to hold back! 👍


Thank you SJ.
I'm on a right one today aren't i
Thing that frustrates me, is the fact that we had hundreds of thousands of people wandering back into the UK,unchecked.
You couldn't make it up mun.
Keep safe matey👍
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Have the government failed? on 15:41 - Apr 28 with 742 viewsA_Fans_Dad

Have the government failed? on 15:31 - Apr 28 by jack2jack

Thank you SJ.
I'm on a right one today aren't i
Thing that frustrates me, is the fact that we had hundreds of thousands of people wandering back into the UK,unchecked.
You couldn't make it up mun.
Keep safe matey👍


As we now know there was a good reason for no actual Quarantine and Flight/Ferry/Chanel Tunnel bans, they had decided on Herd Immunity as quickly as possible.
I aslo cannot get my head around them thinking "home self isolation" is any kind of replacement for good old fashioned Quarantine.
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Have the government failed? on 15:45 - Apr 28 with 731 viewsProfessor

Have the government failed? on 14:47 - Apr 28 by londonlisa2001

The details of the monkey testing are all available? It says they haven’t been infected?


The statement's put out from EJI in Oxford were a bit conflicting between disease and infection in terms of the aim of the vaccine. Hence my lack of commitment on which. From what I know its infection, but many of the veterinary coronavirus vaccine are more disease limiting
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Have the government failed? on 15:47 - Apr 28 with 723 viewsProfessor

Have the government failed? on 14:56 - Apr 28 by londonlisa2001

That’s the assumption underlying the mass testing that’s started here as I understand it. Although the accuracy is supposed to be higher than 80% for the test being carried out.

I believe the testing that’s been done in New York is similar. Albeit the figures produced seem very high to me for NYC.


it could be a cross reaction to other viruses. Perhaps not specific enough
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Have the government failed? on 15:48 - Apr 28 with 721 viewsLohengrin

Anybody else feel sorry for the monkeys?

I understand the importance of the research, but still...

An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it.

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Have the government failed? on 15:50 - Apr 28 with 713 viewsHighjack

Have the government failed? on 15:48 - Apr 28 by Lohengrin

Anybody else feel sorry for the monkeys?

I understand the importance of the research, but still...


Yep.

The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
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1
Have the government failed? on 15:52 - Apr 28 with 707 viewsjack2jack

Have the government failed? on 15:41 - Apr 28 by A_Fans_Dad

As we now know there was a good reason for no actual Quarantine and Flight/Ferry/Chanel Tunnel bans, they had decided on Herd Immunity as quickly as possible.
I aslo cannot get my head around them thinking "home self isolation" is any kind of replacement for good old fashioned Quarantine.


Indeed they did.
Which ever plan they had in place, there should have been a plan, a blueprint if you like, but there was none,they were making it up as they went along, herd immunity or not,lockdown when,how.PPE, where is it,let's get some,clueless,absolutely clueless.
They can plan for a war in two days, but protect us against a virus,no chance.Thats failure right there.
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Have the government failed? on 15:57 - Apr 28 with 697 viewschad

Have the government failed? on 15:22 - Apr 28 by BytholWyn

I think the stick that the WHO is getting on here is a bit misguided. Yes, there are a number of legitimate grievances about it's leadership during this crisis but it's easy to forget the excellent work done on the ground over the decades, which has probably saved us from pandemics worse than the current one. Also, to understand the WHO's failings you need to understand the context. This excellent article in the Guardian provides that context:

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/apr/10/world-health-organization-who-v-cor

This paragraph sums things up pretty well:

"For all the responsibility vested in the WHO, it has little power. Unlike international bodies such as the World Trade Organization, the WHO, which is a specialised body of the UN, has no ability to bind or sanction its members. Its annual operating budget, about $2bn in 2019, is smaller than that of many university hospitals, and split among a dizzying array of public health and research projects. The WHO is less like a military general or elected leader with a strong mandate, and more like an underpaid sports coach wary of “losing the dressing room”, who can only get their way by charming, grovelling, cajoling and occasionally pleading with the players to do as they say."

Anyone who's watched the superb Pandemic docmentary series on Netflix (effectively a Trailer for the current pandemic) will have a grasp on the excellent work done by the WHO on the ground. The stupidest thing possible is to decrease its funding (which is why Trump has done just that). It needs to be given more resources and the political instruments to wield power effectively. Not that that will happen - which is why I think there's every chance that worse pandemics will happen sooner rather than later.


Lack of funding would be a defence for not knowing, or for promoting excessive caution, but not a defence for promoting a reckless attitude. Like promoting China's reports of no evidence of human to human transmission, when on the ground this was known of, put on social media and doctors forced to recant. Or suggesting no need for travel restrictions or checks. Gross reckless incompetence in the circs, in an organisation looked to, to provide effective impartial guidance, in the face of this global monstrosity

What do you think of their general official support for traditional Chinese medicine, when it is thought by many to dilute the scientific proof approach, let alone considering the implications of sourcing some of the animal ingredients.
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Have the government failed? on 16:35 - Apr 28 with 656 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 15:45 - Apr 28 by Professor

The statement's put out from EJI in Oxford were a bit conflicting between disease and infection in terms of the aim of the vaccine. Hence my lack of commitment on which. From what I know its infection, but many of the veterinary coronavirus vaccine are more disease limiting


I’m only going on what’s come out of the monkey testing of the vaccine in Montana. As reported yesterday in the New York Times. No idea other than that.
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Have the government failed? on 16:40 - Apr 28 with 647 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 15:22 - Apr 28 by BytholWyn

I think the stick that the WHO is getting on here is a bit misguided. Yes, there are a number of legitimate grievances about it's leadership during this crisis but it's easy to forget the excellent work done on the ground over the decades, which has probably saved us from pandemics worse than the current one. Also, to understand the WHO's failings you need to understand the context. This excellent article in the Guardian provides that context:

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/apr/10/world-health-organization-who-v-cor

This paragraph sums things up pretty well:

"For all the responsibility vested in the WHO, it has little power. Unlike international bodies such as the World Trade Organization, the WHO, which is a specialised body of the UN, has no ability to bind or sanction its members. Its annual operating budget, about $2bn in 2019, is smaller than that of many university hospitals, and split among a dizzying array of public health and research projects. The WHO is less like a military general or elected leader with a strong mandate, and more like an underpaid sports coach wary of “losing the dressing room”, who can only get their way by charming, grovelling, cajoling and occasionally pleading with the players to do as they say."

Anyone who's watched the superb Pandemic docmentary series on Netflix (effectively a Trailer for the current pandemic) will have a grasp on the excellent work done by the WHO on the ground. The stupidest thing possible is to decrease its funding (which is why Trump has done just that). It needs to be given more resources and the political instruments to wield power effectively. Not that that will happen - which is why I think there's every chance that worse pandemics will happen sooner rather than later.


My criticism of the WHO is related to this virus.

I agree re work on the ground. I’ve had cause myself to use a WHO facility in East Africa before now as a family member had malaria (despite malarone) and the diagnosis and treatment couldn’t have been better.
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Have the government failed? on 16:42 - Apr 28 with 642 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 15:47 - Apr 28 by Professor

it could be a cross reaction to other viruses. Perhaps not specific enough


Seems more than possible. If the figures are correct then this disease has been around for ages.
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Have the government failed? on 16:46 - Apr 28 with 636 viewsKilkennyjack

Have the government failed? on 12:44 - Apr 28 by Highjack

I think it would be prudent at this point to cut all ties with the WHO and put Janice Greve in charge.


At least old Janice might know the PM of New Zealand is a fecking woman.

Unlucky chump.

‘Beware of the risen people’ ........🍀🇮🇪 💚 Dim byd grêt am brydain 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇪🇺

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Have the government failed? on 16:47 - Apr 28 with 633 viewsProfessor

Have the government failed? on 15:48 - Apr 28 by Lohengrin

Anybody else feel sorry for the monkeys?

I understand the importance of the research, but still...


I could not use non-human primates in research personally. Very few are used relative to the total number of animals used experimentally and the regulations are incredibly tight. They are for all animal research but monkeys, dog, cats and dogs have additional levels of protection. I say this as someone who has held a licence from the Home Office for animal work for 12 years. Much easier to get a gun licence
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Have the government failed? on 16:50 - Apr 28 with 628 viewslondonlisa2001

Have the government failed? on 16:47 - Apr 28 by Professor

I could not use non-human primates in research personally. Very few are used relative to the total number of animals used experimentally and the regulations are incredibly tight. They are for all animal research but monkeys, dog, cats and dogs have additional levels of protection. I say this as someone who has held a licence from the Home Office for animal work for 12 years. Much easier to get a gun licence


It’s a step forward from using people in developing countries...
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Have the government failed? on 17:03 - Apr 28 with 609 viewsBytholWyn

Have the government failed? on 15:57 - Apr 28 by chad

Lack of funding would be a defence for not knowing, or for promoting excessive caution, but not a defence for promoting a reckless attitude. Like promoting China's reports of no evidence of human to human transmission, when on the ground this was known of, put on social media and doctors forced to recant. Or suggesting no need for travel restrictions or checks. Gross reckless incompetence in the circs, in an organisation looked to, to provide effective impartial guidance, in the face of this global monstrosity

What do you think of their general official support for traditional Chinese medicine, when it is thought by many to dilute the scientific proof approach, let alone considering the implications of sourcing some of the animal ingredients.


Many of the criticisms of the WHO are valid, but the solution is to resource it properly and give it more teeth. You also need a leader, like Brundlandt, who's willing to exercise the limited power and influence of the WHO to its maximum.

Anyone who thinks that we should do away with global organisations like the WHO needs to have their head examined. The idea that individual countries, in an increasingly insular world order, can secure the concerted global action needed in the face of pandemics, is totally deluded.
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Have the government failed? on 17:14 - Apr 28 with 591 viewsProfessor

Have the government failed? on 16:50 - Apr 28 by londonlisa2001

It’s a step forward from using people in developing countries...


....or indeed certain ethnicities in your own country
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